15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec



New polls with the accompanying election theme music (click above) just to provide some ambiance as you read it....


WISCONISN -- Obama +3 -- Strategic Vision -- Obama drops 2 points from their previous poll in the Badger State.

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +6 -- Fairleigh Dickinson -- Hey, I spent some quality time one summer on this quaint little college's campus in the Garden State and that college says Obama has dropped a huge 10 points from his previous 16 pt lead

MICHIGAN -- Obama +1 -- Strategic Vision -- The Wolverine State essentially has now become a tie.

MARYLAND-- Obama +14 -- Gonzales Polling -- Fear the Turtle or Obama in the Old Line State.

FLORIDA -- McCain +5 -- Public Policy Polling -- PPP always has larger polling samples...and McCain edges up two more points from their previous Sunshine State poll

OKLAHOMA -- McCain +33 --SurveyUSA -- In the Sooner State, McCain acts like their Sooner football team and blows out his opponent.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kulindahr, unless there are some laws that are about to expire, I don't see why Obama couldn't make that promise. The very least, he should say that all the federal laws on the books need to be reconsidered for efficacy and removed/replaced/modified for purposes of national and interstate concerns, otherwise the federal government should yield the more draconian laws to the states.

In terms of common sense, I don't see any reason why he couldn't make it, either. But there are some very powerful Democrats who would be infuriated -- Kennedy, for starters, along with Schumer and Feinstein.
But he likes to say he bucks his own party....

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec





Okay, I couldn't resist the old CNN election theme, so I had to use it again for more new polls (see the 6 other new state polls above).

MONTANA -- McCain +11 -- Rasmussen -- In Big Sky Country, McCain rides Gov Palin's hugely popular skirt to a giant lead....previously Ras. had this race a TIE, so an impressive turnaround for Jed and Ellie Mae.

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +20 -- Survey USA -- The Tarheel State is no longer consistent, wrap it up and tie a ribbon around it as the Repubs have come home. A 13 point improvement for McCain from this previous poller. And now to go beneath the surface in NC:
*With male voters, McCain went from +9 to +27...an 18 pt jump
*With female voters, the state went from Obama +2 to McCain +12...a 14 pt improvement.
*Independents were previously tied....now, indies choose McCain +25.
*A regional breakdown:
----Coastal Carolina...McCain went from 57 to 64%
----Charlotte....McCain went from 53 to 60%
----Raleigh/Greenboro (Research Triangle)....McCain went from 44 to 54%.
These are the parts of NC where Dems MUST do well to win...the other more rural areas are Republican anyway.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Even the most powerful of Congressional Democrats would agree with me---those constituents who want more gun laws only do so because the laws suck, and they are only a small minority who wants all guns banned, but would agree to reasonable, yet effective restraints. I would think most gun owners don't mind fair laws, and those that want none are only a small minority---and even then for that small minority, a reasonable approach is better than living day-to-day in fear of a Second Amendment repeal via legislation. And then there are the criminals that don't give a shit either way because they will have their guns regardless, but DO care about extensive laws against law-abiders so it makes their work as criminals easier.

I've never seen a "reasonable" restraint. Most of the laws we have are based on the fantasy that criminals will obey them, and have done nothing to reduce crime with firearms.
If Congress were interested in "reasonable restraints", they would never have passed the Clinton cosmetic firearms ban.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ I also said 'effective', and I'll reveal that I also mean 'realistic' with that. The problem is that there is no consensus on the matter---the gun debate boils down to two extremes and is as bad as how the abortion debate seems to go.

What baffles me is that if you go back to Humphrey and Johnson, it's hard to find a politician in the Democratic Party who wouldn't be able to be a faithful, core NRA member today. I have yet to figure out where the novel notion of restrictions on firearms came from, although there's a report from a (IIRC) presidential study commission under (IIRC) Kennedy that suddenly is recommending gun control.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wow, talk about the sick irony of that, if you indeed recalled correctly. Makes me curious WHY it started recommending it in the 1960s, and if it has anything to do with the Red Scare, or just because of military technology advancements.

Wow, is this off-topic now. Perhaps resurrecting an old 'gun control' thread or starting a new one would be wise, if this is to go any further.

I had a copy of the commission report in paperback -- loaned it, and of course it never came back.

Hmm -- maybe a thread on "The Origins of Gun Control"?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

What baffles me is that if you go back to Humphrey and Johnson, it's hard to find a politician in the Democratic Party who wouldn't be able to be a faithful, core NRA member today.

Very good point. There was a time when each party had it's liberal and conservative wings. Many of the Rockefeller Republicans have moved over to the Democratic Party, and many of the Reagan Democrats have moved over to the Republican Party.

I think the 1980 election was the tipping point for that. The Carter - Reagan election seemed to have shifted the axis. I think it may have begun in the 60's with the Civil Rights Bill, but the deal was completed in 1980.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec




Hey, new theme music (just need it to read Decision '08) for the latest state polls (sorry to interrupt the guns & NRA banter):


NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +4 -- Public Policy Polling -- What a difference a day makes in polling, huh? Yesterday, McCain had jumped to a 20 point lead with Survey USA; with this PPP poll today, I think it's safe to say that the 20 pointer was an outlier poll. McCain gained 1 point from PPP's previous Tarheel state poll.

VIRGINIA -- McCain +4 -- CNN -- How significant is Old Dominion? Today, McCain/Palin and Obama were in the commonwealth campaigning. McCain starting to seperate a little bit here.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +2 -- Strategic Vision -- Obama slides 7 points from S.V's previous Keystone State poll.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +6 -- CNN -- And Joe Biden was campaigning today in the Granite State (one of 4 states that MSNBC's Chuck Todd says is a true swing state).

MISSOURI -- McCain +5 -- CNN -- The Show Me State continues to look good for McCain.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- CNN -- Three polls this week from the Wolverine State have shown the Dems up by 1, 2 and 4 points.

All polls, of course, are post-convention. So, how do these make you feel?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And in addition to those six new state polls out today, I have three more polls...all of these from Rasmussen.

NEW MEXICO -- McCain +2 -- McCain makes huge in-roads in the Land of Enchantment. In this previous poll from Ras, Obama had a 4 point lead and was cruising, so a 6 point McCain swing.

NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +14 -- Sorry, snapcat, I know you've been hanging your hat on the Peace Garden State for Obama, but it's not looking good. In the previous poll in ND, it was a TIE, so a 14 point McCain swing.

ALASKA --McCain +31 -- With Palin, the Last Frontier went from battleground state to the Last Place Where Obama Will Win. From previous poll, where McCain lead only by 5, this is a 26 point McCain swing.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In the meantime, another state that Obama declared as a battleground is now having resource shifted out of state. In Georgia, where Obama has spent over $2 million on ads vs. $0 by McCain, and where Obama has 75 paid staffers, he suspended ads almost 3 weeks ago, and is how moving out many of the human resources...most to North Carolina. There has not been a poll in GA in almost a month, so clearly his internal polling must look bad. GA last voted Democrat in 1992, and sided with Dole in '96 by a less than 1% vote margin.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The only reason that I can imagine that there have been no polls is that no one has commissoned any. The Atlanta Journal Constitution has been on economic hard times and laying off....they have not been polling any of our state races either to the degree that they have in the past, which is unfortunate. I knew about Obama pulling out (although his people, of course, will never ever say that they're pulling out) by a Democratic Party Committee Board member who told me yesterday at the gym. Then, there was a blurb on the local news last night. But, just for you....oh, the things I do for you ICO7, here is a story from the AJC. Oh, by the way, what do you think of all the wild polling suddenly coming out of NC?

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/me...ign_georgia.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab


ICO7, here is another good site for southern political news, polls, articles. It's called the southern political report. Great place to keep tabs on key senate and governor races.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/

Georgia gets it's own version called Insider Advanatage Georgia:
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The fact that Obama is even competitive in North Carolina this late in the game speaks volumes about how this state is shifting more to the middle, politically.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In looking at some key states activities: in Florida, McCain had been rather dormant ad-wise, but has now hit the airwaves hard as Obama has picked up some steam in the sweltering Sunshine State.

In addition, I heard where later in the week, Obama is sending Hillary to campaign in NE Ohio (that's what they said, I thought her base in OH was in the SE, but either way, it's Ohio). Several days ago, she was hitting the trail in Florida.

 

[SonOfSlobone]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The fact that Obama is even competitive in North Carolina this late in the game speaks volumes about how this state is shifting more to the middle, politically.

Latest map on pollster.com shows North Carolina in the Leaning Republican column. And Michigan has gone into neutral... thanks a lot Howard Dean!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In looking at some key states activities: in Florida, McCain had been rather dormant ad-wise, but has now hit the airwaves hard as Obama has picked up some steam in the sweltering Sunshine State.

In addition, I heard where later in the week, Obama is sending Hillary to campaign in NE Ohio (that's what they said, I thought her base in OH was in the SE, but either way, it's Ohio). Several days ago, she was hitting the trail in Florida.

If Obama needs help in Cleveland, then he's toast. If he can't win in the Land of Kucinich we should just call the race now and air encores of American Gladiators on November 4th.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If Obama needs help in Cleveland, then he's toast. If he can't win in the Land of Kucinich we should just call the race now and air encores of American Gladiators on November 4th.

LOL--yeah!! Of course, maybe she's going to Youngstown and some of the smaller markets.


Also, just saw on cnn's website that even prior to tomorrow's 9/11 Manhattan lunch between Bill Clinton and Obama that Bill will be heading to Florida to campaign for Obama. I think Bill and Hillary will be spending alot of time between those two states....and maybe PA, MI and WI.

Yep, 55 days to go and we're pretty much focusing on the same ol' states that did in the Democrats in elections past...Ohio and Florida. I'm now having flashbacks to when I kept saying in the spring that Hillary should get the nom because all we needed was Kerry states +1 and she and Bill have always polled well in OH/FL. But, NOOOOO...Obama can go where no Dem has gone before, they said....(okay, I'm over it...all better now).

This really is crunch time for Obama. We're going to see what he's made of now. I don't think he's a particulary great campaigner, and the way he wasted the summer in Europe and Hawaii, I don't think he understood how close this election would be...and that nobody circles the wagons like the GOP. I wish somebody had reminded him and his overly confident campaign staff that only a mere twice since 1944 has a Democrat received more than 50% of the vote in a general election. He should have been pounding the pavement this summer finding the right language to simplify in blue collar terms what his economic plan would do for the voters.

I'm glad he's getting the Clintons out amongst the voters. But, sometimes I think Obama just wants to be the guy who runs the shop, but doesn't know how to grind the metal.


And, hey, not ONE comment from the peanut gallery about adding some musical score effects to my poll updates.....geez, you guys are a tough crowd.....these declining Obama polls have everyone is such a funk....the fat lady ain't even warmed up with her bon-bons yet

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey, new theme music (just need it to read Decision '08) for the latest state polls (sorry to interrupt the guns & NRA banter):


NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +4 -- Public Policy Polling -- What a difference a day makes in polling, huh? Yesterday, McCain had jumped to a 20 point lead with Survey USA; with this PPP poll today, I think it's safe to say that the 20 pointer was an outlier poll. McCain gained 1 point from PPP's previous Tarheel state poll.

VIRGINIA -- McCain +4 -- CNN -- How significant is Old Dominion? Today, McCain/Palin and Obama were in the commonwealth campaigning. McCain starting to seperate a little bit here.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +2 -- Strategic Vision -- Obama slides 7 points from S.V's previous Keystone State poll.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +6 -- CNN -- And Joe Biden was campaigning today in the Granite State (one of 4 states that MSNBC's Chuck Todd says is a true swing state).

MISSOURI -- McCain +5 -- CNN -- The Show Me State continues to look good for McCain.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- CNN -- Three polls this week from the Wolverine State have shown the Dems up by 1, 2 and 4 points.

All polls, of course, are post-convention. So, how do these make you feel?

All in all, I'd say Team Obama is happier with these polls than Team McCain.

The fact that Obama is even competitive in North Carolina this late in the game speaks volumes about how this state is shifting more to the middle, politically.

NC and VA look a little too close for comfort for McCain. Even if he ultimately carries them, he's going to have to work hard for them and take money and time from other states.

I'll weigh in on my home state MI. It's a reliable state for the Dems and I'd be shocked to see McCain carry it, especially considering the polls so far. Pollmeister has McCain led in any recent poll in MI?

That being said, Obama has a few countervailing winds that Kerry and Gore, who won the state by 4 or 5 points in 2004 and 2000, did not face. First, the state Democrats are very unpopular. Gov. Granholm showed great promise when first elected and comfortably won re-election, but she has been ineffective in dealing with the budget and economy and has an approval rating just slightly higher than Bush.

Second, the scandals surrounding Detroit Mayor Kilpatrick are not helping. The city is going to go solid for Obama. However, the mayor might have a impact in Oakland County, which borders Detroit. There is a great deal of tension between the suburbs and the city and Kilpatrick's scandals may tarnish the Democratic brand. The OC is the wealthiest county in the state. For years, it was SOLIDLY Republican, but Gore and Kerry won by the slightest of margins. It's "country club" Republican - fiscally conservative, especially low taxes, but socially moderate, even liberal. Bush turned many voters off. McCain's silence on social issues so far in the campaign may help him.

Third, MI's hard economic times and highest unemployment in the country (8.5%) should help the Democrats. But many of those workers are the "white working class" that Obama supposedly has trouble connecting with. I don't think they're any more attracted to millionaire McCain and the Republican economic message. BUT -- the center of the state is "redneck militia" country and they will love Palin. These voters have shown repeatedly that they can be persuaded to vote against their economic interests on the basis of "gays, guns and God." On the other hand, unions are still powerful in MI and they are going to come out in force for the Democrats.

If McCain takes even a slight lead in polling here (and the other states fall into place), MI may be THE state to watch. Obama knows this. I think he and Michelle have been in MI at least six times. McCain will be spending time here as well.

Sammie that music is so 2004!

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And, hey, not ONE comment from the peanut gallery about adding some musical score effects to my poll updates.....geez, you guys are a tough crowd.....these declining Obama polls have everyone is such a funk....the fat lady ain't even warmed up with her bon-bons yet

I thought it was cool.

The new NH poll is encouraging. That state had seemed like a virtual tie for the past few weeks. And good to see MI up from a 1% lead. If either of those states goes red it's going to be hard for Obama to win I think.

Same with PA. He's slipping way too much there.

 

[jjmc]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

All in all, I'd say Team Obama is happier with these polls than Team McCain.



NC and VA look a little too close for comfort for McCain. Even if he ultimately carries them, he's going to have to work hard for them and take money and time from other states.

I'll weigh in on my home state MI. It's a reliable state for the Dems and I'd be shocked to see McCain carry it, especially considering the polls so far. Pollmeister has McCain led in any recent poll in MI?

That being said, Obama has a few countervailing winds that Kerry and Gore, who won the state by 4 or 5 points in 2004 and 2000, did not face. First, the state Democrats are very unpopular. Gov. Granholm showed great promise when first elected and comfortably won re-election, but she has been ineffective in dealing with the budget and economy and has an approval rating just slightly higher than Bush.

Second, the scandals surrounding Detroit Mayor Kilpatrick are not helping. The city is going to go solid for Obama. However, the mayor might have a impact in Oakland County, which borders Detroit. There is a great deal of tension between the suburbs and the city and Kilpatrick's scandals may tarnish the Democratic brand. The OC is the wealthiest county in the state. For years, it was SOLIDLY Republican, but Gore and Kerry won by the slightest of margins. It's "country club" Republican - fiscally conservative, especially low taxes, but socially moderate, even liberal. Bush turned many voters off. McCain's silence on social issues so far in the campaign may help him.

Third, MI's hard economic times and highest unemployment in the country (8.5%) should help the Democrats. But many of those workers are the "white working class" that Obama supposedly has trouble connecting with. I don't think they're any more attracted to millionaire McCain and the Republican economic message. BUT -- the center of the state is "redneck militia" country and they will love Palin. These voters have shown repeatedly that they can be persuaded to vote against their economic interests on the basis of "gays, guns and God." On the other hand, unions are still powerful in MI and they are going to come out in force for the Democrats.

If McCain takes even a slight lead in polling here (and the other states fall into place), MI may be THE state to watch. Obama knows this. I think he and Michelle have been in MI at least six times. McCain will be spending time here as well.

Sammie that music is so 2004!

And what people don't realize about Michigan is that Granholm problems are due to the 12 years of run down from John Engler. This guy was a sleeze bag. The repubs are trying to shift the blame to Granholm. Not sure how successful they've been. I left the state after undergrad and only go back for 3 days around Xmas time. From time to time I do read up on what's going on.

I do agree that that dumb as mayor may have hurt the chances of Oakland county splitting or going repub. I cannot really stand Kwamme. I hope he never finds a job again.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec



Syntax...at least the 2004 MSNBC theme is the same in '08; The above CNN not so much, but the '04 CNN music was far superior. And thanks for the Michigan explanation. Some guys on TV moments before I read that was saying that it may be Michigan that swings this election.

In the meantime, more new polls:

ALABAMA -- McCain +20 -- AEA -- In the Heart of Dixie, the tide is rolling for McCain.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +3 -- Quinnipiac -- Obama is consistently gripping to the lead in the Keystone State.

FLORIDA -- McCain +7 -- Quinnipiac -- Just when the Sunshine State appeared to be shifting slowly toward Obama, several consecutive polls show McCain's victory margin widening.

OHIO -- Obama +5 -- Quinnipiac -- Good news here for Obama in the Buckeye State...it continues to perplex poll-wise.