The State of the Presidential Race
Looking back to earlier in the summer, one would have been naturally excited to imagine that Obama’s pathway to the White House was going to be much easier than it has actually turned out to be. John McCain did not enjoy a fervent enthusiasm from his base, and consistently trailed in all of the polls.
The optics of the campaign heavily favored Obama. Remember Obama’s trip to the Middle East and to Europe? Compare that to McCain’s handful of media turning out for him in New Hampshire and the ill-advised McCain photo op in front in the cheese aisle in an Ohio grocery store.
The McCain campaign appeared not to be running on all cylinders, until he adopted the “kitchen sink” strategy pioneered by Hillary Clinton. In August, McCain began throwing everything at Obama. The media woke up and began covering this constant barrage, reminding the electorate that McCain was now on the attack and Obama was left only to respond.
As Hurricane Gustav raced toward New Orleans, and the Republicans began cancelling events at the GOP convention, some people began to hope that McCain would not have much of a convention to get a bounce from. But while a record number of people tuned in to watch Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention, even more people tuned in to watch John McCain’s acceptance speech at the GOP Convention. That wasn’t supposed to happen. And with the pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has turned this election on its head.
But, to be fair, let’s look back at some of the numbers from the primaries, and re-examine the state of the race, rather than automatically assume the latest polling is gospel.
Let’s look at some of those Red State’s voting numbers and see how solid McCain’s lead actually is:
Alabama: Dem (540,021) - Rep (549,637)
Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the Alabama primary. I think it’s safe to say this is a McCain lock.
Arizona: Dem (451,887) - Rep (515,143)
Again, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the home state of John McCain. This should be a “no-brainer” for the GOP, but Pollster still shows McCain’s lead a little over 5 points. Arizona hasn’t been all locked up by the GOP yet. Personally, I question if the Democrats have a chance in hell here, but the reality seems to be much more favorable than most people had imagined.
Arkansas: Dem (306,204) - Rep (213,503)
Arkansas Democrats were enthusiastic about Hillary, and Hillary could have one this state. Yet Pollster has McCain up by just over 7 points. I seriously question if Obama could garner the same support that Hillary enjoyed here.
Colorado: Dem (117,947) - Rep (51,175)
Democrats have made huge inroads in Colorado. But Pollster still has this state as statistically tied. We’ve seen evidence that Obama has enjoyed the narrowest of leads here, but no doubt that McCain has seen his support here on the rise. Obama should be able to energize everyone here and seal this much needed state up. But will that happen? Of all of the Red States that Obama has targeted, I think this state represents his best chance of flipping one Blue.
Florida: Dem (1,725,264) - Rep (1,858,287)
I’ve always said that this is a state tailor-made for a McCain win. Yet he hasn’t managed to seal the deal just yet. McCain’s lead averages less than 5 points here, even at this late date. While I’m personally skeptical that Florida can be flipped, I still think that McCain will win this state by a small margin.
Georgia: Dem (1,054,831) - Rep (930,615)
In theory, it appeared as though Obama had a fighting chance in this state. But since McCain has firmed up his base, it would be fair to conclude that McCain would have received more votes here had his base been 100% at the time of the primary. I think McCain will win here, but not by a landslide.
Indiana: Dem (1,274,993) - Rep (380,320)
This one still boggles my mind. McCain leads Obama on average by about 4 points. But we’ve seen the Indiana Democrats can show up to the polls, and can win in Indiana. I think Obama still has a shot here. Obviously Evan Bayh would have shored up Obama’s support in Indiana, and I think we’d be looking at a different race had that happened. I still think Indiana is a toss-up, although McCain now has a small lead here. It’s up to the Obama Campaign to figure out how to translate early Democratic voter enthusiasm into a state-wide win in November.
Idaho: Dem (60,762) - Rep (87,341)
Obama doesn’t have a prayer of a chance here.
Kansas: Dem (36,723) - Rep (16,962)
With popular Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius a firm Obama supporter, Kansas could be more competitive than it is right now. McCain is clobbering Obama here, now. I think this is one of those states that might have seen a diminished GOP turnout because local Republicans just weren’t sold on John McCain back in the spring. I think that’s all changed, now.
Kentucky: Dem (683,107) - Rep (171,437)
The numbers from our late primary are staggering, if a bit misleading. John McCain had locked up the GOP nomination by the time we voted in May. That suppressed Republican turnout. Hillary Clinton is wildly popular here. The urban areas went heavily for Obama, but the rest of the commonwealth went for Hillary is massive numbers.
Just to be clear, Democrats can win in Kentucky. We have a Democratic Governor, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by a large margin. But party loyalty isn’t as important as the candidate. Democrats here won’t shed a tear to cross party lines to vote for a candidate that they like.
And to this day, Obama has all but conceded Kentucky.
Louisiana: Dem (384,348) - Rep (151,071)
Don’t forget, Democrats picked up a House seat here that had been in GOP control for more than 30 years. Democrats could win in the Bayou State, but it would be tougher this cycle. There are still roughly 200,000 less people in New Orleans than were there four years ago, and New Orleans is heavily democratic. Still, McCain shouldn’t be winning by more than 15 points. But the reality is that this was a state that could have been a pick-up if Obama wanted to devote the effort to it.
Mississippi: Dem (571,822) - Rep (136,713)
I think this is another state that just wasn’t onboard with McCain at the time of the primary. He has shored up his base there and now leads by about 15 points. Still, Democrats picked up a House seat here earlier, and the Democratic candidate for US Senator remains competitive.
Missouri: Dem (820,145) - Rep (559,502)
Pollster still show’s McCain’s lead just over 5 points. All is not lost in Missouri, but it has now turned into an uphill battle. This is the ultimate swing state, and the question is “can Obama devote the time and money needed to win here?”
Montana: Dem (177, 165) - Rep (73,058)
Montana is one of those Western States that has seen a shift in demographics that now favors Democrats more than it did in the past. Pollster still shows McCain with only a 3 point lead here, although McCain seems to be increasing his lead in the latest polls.
The bottom line, McCain should be doing better here. I still believe this state could be picked off by the Democrats, should they wish to devote the time and money to doing it. This will force McCain to spend money here, money he might have otherwise spent in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
New Hampshire: Dem (284,104) - Rep (194,683)
Obama’s lead has completely shrunk here. McCain now enjoys a 2 point lead at Pollster. New Hampshire voters can change their mind, and have done so in the past. Still, this is a state that went with Pat Buchanan and John McCain in large numbers in the past. But the influx of Bostonians now living in Southern New Hampshire bodes well for an Obama pick-up, should he decide to actively contest this state. And I don’t think Obama can afford not to actively campaign here.
North Carolina: Dem (1,539, 287) - Rep (443,576)
I think this state bears watching for future election cycles. The demographic is changing to one more favorable to Democrats. The numbers are a bit deceiving, McCain had wrapped up the nomination by the time of the primary, and evangelicals had not rallied to McCain’s camp at the time. Still, while recent polls have not been so favorable for Obama, he still maintains just under a 5 point deficit at Pollster.
It would cost a lot of time and money to flip North Carolina today. It could happen, but the odds no longer seem favorable in this election cycle. Still, McCain is going to have to spend money here that could have been spent elsewhere.
Ohio: (2, 224,907) - Rep (1,013,249)
The ultimate swing state! Obviously Democrats can win here. If there ever was a time for a Democrat to win here, it would be in this election. Yet, McCain has managed a 2 point lead over at Pollster. The demographics heavily favored Hillary over Obama, but Obama could win here. Someone from the Obama Campaign should be in Portsmouth and Zanesville everyday from now until the election. Every single solitary day! Southern Ohio isn’t interested in going to a stadium to hear Obama speak. They want him to ring their door bell and come into the living room and sit down and discuss the issues.
An Obama win without Ohio is possible, but that path to the White House is much more tenuous than it would be with a win in Ohio. And frankly, Obama’s road to the White House without Ohio is looking less likely with each new poll.
Oklahoma: Dem (374,754) - Rep (320,905)
Obama shouldn’t be losing by 30 points here, but he is. This is a lost cause in Oklahoma. But, a Wesley Clark Veep might have shaken things up a bit.
South Carolina: Dem (532,227) - Rep (415,146)
Once, a possible Democratic pick-up, now a political long shot. McCain enjoys a lead of about 8 points over at Pollster. I think that might be as big of a lead that McCain gets here, even though he has shored up his base. Democrats are going to come out here to vote in huge numbers. But, now, so are the Republicans.
South Dakota: Dem (97,910) - Rep (49,162)
This is a state Obama tried real hard to win from Hillary. He fought hard here, and lost. McCain still only has a 5 point lead here over at Pollster. But I conclude that’s all he needs to win here.
Tennessee: Dem (615,600) - Rep (515,810)
Democrats can win here, just not this Democrat. McCain has a 15 point lead and that should hold until November 4th.
Utah: Dem (124,239) - Reps (276,243)
Were Salt Lake City to become a state we might have a chance here. But otherwise, why bother?
Virginia: Dem (980,382) - Rep (465,964)
McCain has stolen Obama’s lead and is now up by 4 points over at Pollster. Roanoke and Bristol are now enthusiastic about McCain. Voter registration will be key here, and this state could tighten up. Democrats have until 29 days before the November 4th election to register as many Democrats as possible, and get them to the polls.
If there ever was a time when a Democrat could win in Virginia, it would be now, and it would be with Obama. Someone from the Obama campaign must be in Richmond and Charlottesville and Arlington every day through the election. Every single day! Interestingly, Obama continues to do well in Southeast Virginia, in of all places Norfolk. But there is now going to be a surge in Republicans voting in Lynchburg, Roanoke, and Bristol.
Will Obama devote the time and money to winning this state? He’s only down by 3 points at Pollster. He would be foolish to not actively campaign here every single day.
West Virginia: Dem (357,241) - Rep (110,007)
This state is much like Kentucky. Democrats outnumber Republicans, but those Democrats will cross party lines and vote for who they like best. McCain has about an 11 point lead here, and Obama didn’t seriously campaign here in the primaries. A McCain win here is imminent.
Texas: Dem (2,910,992) - Rep (1,286,901) *primary votes, only
What a peculiar political animal, Texas is. They have a primary and a caucus. Bless their lil’ pea-picken’ hearts. McCain leads by 7 points here; hardly the blow-out one would expect. Democratic voters are on the rise, especially in the Houston area. I don’t think Obama can win here, not now, not this time.
And here is how I see the State of the Race, today …. And I think I’m being generous in counting Colorado & New Mexico in the Obama camp.
The TRUE BATTLEGROUND STATES are : Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
I can’t envision an Obama win without Colorado and New Mexico. Ditto for Michigan, if Obama loses Michigan, he loses the election. I can’t see McCain winning if he loses Montana and Nevada. Ohio, Indiana, Virginia and New Hampshire will be tough battles. How long will McCain’s money take him? Will the price of campaigning in Indiana and Virginia cost him in Ohio & New Hampshire?
The debates will be crucial!
