15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Common mistake! It's the DESERET News, Deseret (pronounced Dezzer at) being the name the Mormons gave to the area that later became Utah Terrritory. The name Utah comes from the Ute indian tribe.

Deseret News is a mormon newspaper. To find something slightly more neutral, try the Salt Lake Tribune. But indeed, their polital races aren't nail-biters.

Yes, it was a typo--and a slightly humorous one at that. And you're right that their political races aren't nail-biters. You and Sammie both got my meaning pretty well. Anyway, it was plus thirtysomething for McCain, but I wouldn't have expected anything different, and I doubt anybody else would either.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

From Bill Bennett to Mike Huckabee to Newt Gingrich, they were all incredulous that Obama did not select Hillary. She would whip their ass, and they all knew it. .

You don't see the disingenuous ploy at play here in the GOP praise of Hillary as a way of gaining some traction with her disaffected supporters?

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Exactly. Palin has how many weeks left before the vice presidential debates? She has a lot to learn in a very short time, and plenty of weeks to make gaffes. I haven't make Obama and Biden seen making any gaffes yet. Just made-up controversies and right-wing spin. When was the last time the GOP addressed a pressing issue?

She isn't going to make gaffes because she is essentially off-limits to the media.

And then you will see her make the same stump speech she has made everywhere else ...

"I told Congress thanks, but no thanks, on the Bridge to Nowhere. I told Congress if we wanted a Bridge we can build one ourselves."

... and that's about it.

There is going to be an uproar if she gets softballs thrown at her during the VP debates. I'm telling you now, don't be surprised if that happens. The GOP knows this is her biggest weakness and I would not be surprised if they find a way to coerce the moderator in going soft on her.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls from some key states:

OHIO -- McCain +4 -- SurveyUSA
OHIO -- McCain +4 -- Suffolk -- Two Buckeye polls: 1 result...MacMan by 4.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +4 -- SurveyUSA -- Old Dominion giving Obama some love.

OREGON -- Obama +6 -- Moore -- The Eager Beaver state consistently in the Obama camp

NEW YORK -- Obama +5 -- Siena -- Smallish lead in the Empire State.

WASHINGTON --Obama +9 -- Elway -- This poll is rubbish with a sampling of just over 200 people and a margin of error at almost 7%.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, the Rasmussen numbers didn't look so good. They had Colorado with McCain ahead and Virginia tied.

Also, Obama gets only about 70% of democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, the Rasmussen numbers didn't look so good. They had Colorado with McCain ahead and Virginia tied.

Also, Obama gets only about 70% of democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Yeah, snapcat, the new Rasmussen numbers are downright depressing from the Democratic perspective. Just a quick summary:

COLORADO -- McCain +2 -- That's a 5 pt swing from a few weeks ago where Obama lead by 3.

FLORIDA -- McCain +5 -- Another 5 pt swing as previously tied.

OHIO -- McCain +3 -- Obama tightens the Buckeye State by 2 points

PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- Obama drops two points to land in a tie. Oh my!!!

VIRGINIA -- TIE -- Obama tightens this race, which previously McCain lead by 2.

If not a tidal wave, then perhaps a surge would be an appropriate term. Right now, we're trying to prevent a tsunami.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few Demographic poll results from Newsweek on where Obama is declining the most from just a few weeks ago:

White Women: McCain leads this vitally important swing demographic 53-37%.

Seniors: Again, a key swing demographic and McCain leads 52-39%.


Tough to win without these groups.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

MSNBC's Chuck Todd says there are 7 battleground states right now where all is essentially tied. They are: New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado.

A week ago, Obama lead electorally 228-200, now Obama leads 233-227. He has given New Mexico to Obama, which I think is a bit pre-mature since we've seen very recent polls with McCain up in NM.

He noted that in Nevada, Repubs are uncomfortable with all the newly registered Dems, and how that plays out in polls versus the actual election.

In the meantime, Todd says race is the subtle issue in the background with undecided voters in Wisconsin and Michigan. Many poll responses in these two states where the responder is supporting every Dem down ticket, but when they get to the pres. race, the response is 'uhm, I'm not sure.' Obama may only get 3/10 undecideds, so he needs big leads of committed voters.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've thought for a long time that most of the undecideds were going to break for McCain. I'd love to believe otherwise, but I just don't see it.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A plethora of new polls. In fact, 41 state polls are listed below courtesy of the polllmeister. Many are by American Research Group who polled many states that we've rarely heard from before. Some states have polls provided by 2 or 3 sources.

ALABAMA -- McCain +22 -- ARG
ALASKA -- McCain +16 -- ARG
ARIZONA -- McCain +17 -- ARG
CALIFORNIA -- Obama +16 -- Field Polling
COLORADO -- McCain +2 -- ARG
DELEWARE -- Obama +11 -- ARG
DIST OF COLUMBIA -- Obama +69 -- ARG
FLORIDA -- TIE -- CNN -- When Barr, McKinney, etc are on ballot, Obama is +4.
HAWAII -- Obama +31 -- ARG
IDAHO -- McCain +43 -- ARG
INDIANA -- McCain +6 -- CNN -- Again, with 3rd party candidates, McCain is +1.
KANSAS -- McCain +32 -- ARG
KENTUCKY -- McCain +20 -- ARG
LOUISIANA -- McCain +7 -- ARG
MAINE -- Obama +10 -- ARG
MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +16 -- ARG
MISSOURI -- McCain +5 -- ARG
MONTANA -- McCain +2 -- ARG
NEVADA -- McCain +3 -- ARG
NEW JERSEY -- 1) Obama +8 -- Monmouth; 2) Obama +3 -- Quinnipiac
NEW MEXICO -- Obama +7 -- ARG
NEW YORK -- 1) Obama +13 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +17 -- ARG
NORTH CAROLINA -- 1) McCain +1 -- CNN; 2) McCain +11 -- ARG
OHIO -- 1) McCain +4 -- PPP; 2) McCain +6 -- ARG; 3) Obama +2 -- CNN
OREGON -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen
RHODE ISLAND -- 1) Obama +26 -- ARG; 2) Obama +19 -- Rasmussen
TEXAS -- McCain +21 -- ARG
UTAH -- McCain +36 -- ARG
VERMONT -- Obama +19 -- Research2000
VIRGINIA -- 1) Obama +2 -- PPP; 2) McCain +9 -- CNN
WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +4 -- ARG
WISCONSIN -- 1) Obama +3 -- CNN; 2) Obama +2 -- Rasmussen
WYOMING -- McCain +38

Okay, dudes, anything catch your attention? I'll start with West By-God Virginia, there was a poll the other day that had McCain leading by only five, and now today 4 points. What gives? This is a traditonal long-time Democratic state that McCain is polling poorly in despite the fact that Obama snubbed his nose to WV in the primaries and again during the general. Then, there is Wisconsin where Obama has clearly lost his big lead, and would now be in the battleground category. The CNN polls have Obama tied in Florida, winning in Ohio and Wisconsin and trailing McCain by only 1 in N. Carolina.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Pollster now has West Virginia as a "toss up" state!

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, dudes, anything catch your attention? I'll start with West By-God Virginia, there was a poll the other day that had McCain leading by only five, and now today 4 points. What gives? This is a traditonal long-time Democratic state that McCain is polling poorly in despite the fact that Obama snubbed his nose to WV in the primaries and again during the general. Then, there is Wisconsin where Obama has clearly lost his big lead, and would now be in the battleground category. The CNN polls have Obama tied in Florida, winning in Ohio and Wisconsin and trailing McCain by only 1 in N. Carolina.

Anything catch my attention? It looks to me like the race is tightening up all over. I haven't had a chance to drill down to see whose numbers are rising or lowering, but overall it seems to be tighter all over.

Obama is campaigning in New Mexico tomorrow.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

West Virginia is historically favorable to the Democrats. With exception of Woodrow Wilson's 1916 re-election, every Democratic president has carried the state. And Wilson did win W.Va. his first time, in 1912; he lost the state in his re-election—to Republican challenger Charles Hughes—during the first World War. That was a tight, Bush-like election (Wilson, 277; Hughes, 254).

To be fair, Texas was carried by Democratic presidents up till Jimmy Carter's 1976 election. Mitigating factor, in 1992, was that Bill Clinton faced two Texans—George Bush and Ross Perot. But 1996 broke the pattern when Kansas's Bob Dole challenged, and lost the election to, Clinton; Dole carried Texas.

At some point in time, a Republican will manage to win the White House while losing Ohio. But it's a tough pattern to break, since it's been brewing for 150 years. (F.Y.I. The dominant, two-party Republican-vs.-Democratic candidate matchups date back to 1856. No GOP president has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.)

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I certainly think the Obama campaign needs to ramp it up in the Mountain State. With the poverty in West Virginina, you would think that there is no way a Dem could lose that state after 8 years of Bushonomics. Obama needs to utilize Bill and Hillary and Sen Webb who appeal to these delightful Appalachians. And those same surrogates should be used in the mtns of VA and NC as well. If Obama can pull in 40-45% of rural voters in VA and NC, this election is his. He can't continue to make Richmond, Newport News, the DC suburbs, Raleigh and Charlotte as his rally sites...he needs to move the show out to the sticks...I've seen plenty of occassions in the south where if a Dem will just give rural voters some attention, they do garner votes from these often times attention-starved citizens. Usually, it's these voters who are ignored by campaigns who opt to rally in the larger TV markets.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Nobody should hold their breath of winning West Virginia. I've done some work in the state when I lived on the East Coast, and I can say that the state is a very racist state, overall. Don't get your hopes up, however maybe they'll surprise me.

It looks like the effects of the Convention are wearing off for McCain, however the Palin Effect seems to remain, which keeps the race tight. I would advise everyone to hold their fire on Palin, like some of us have been advising, and hopefully the bloggers and the Media will do the same. Any perceived attack against her fuels the fire and sends the Conservatives rushing to her aide.

The key is to keep the election focused on McCain and Obama.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Where the frak is Obama with an announcement of a Cabinet offer for Hillary?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Once again, Hillary Clinton goes beyond the call of duty and does a splendid job on hosting a web conference with Joe Biden that is primarily geared toward Women's Issues. This is linked below directly from Obama's website. After Joe gives the most long-winded introduction in history, Hills does a great job tackling those kitchen table issues for Sen Obama.

For all those Hillary bashers out there, you should be ashamed. Give this a listen and picture any other 'loser' going the distance like Hills.

http://www.barackobama.com/tv/ and click on the "Biden and Clinton" link

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In all fairness, I don't think that's what Sammie was saying, although he is more than capable of defending himself.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Once again, Hillary Clinton goes beyond the call of duty and does a splendid job on hosting a web conference with Joe Biden that is primarily geared toward Women's Issues. This is linked below directly from Obama's website. After Joe gives the most long-winded introduction in history, Hills does a great job tackling those kitchen table issues for Sen Obama.

For all those Hillary bashers out there, you should be ashamed. Give this a listen and picture any other 'loser' going the distance like Hills.

http://www.barackobama.com/tv/ and click on the "Biden and Clinton" link

Let me fix that sentence for you: "For all those Hillary bashers out there, [strike]you should be ashamed[/strike] shut up."

Thank you. . . both.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I watched the Biden/Clinton conversation linked above. I strongly recommend it to anyone who questions whether Sen. Clinton is insincere or tepid in her support of the ticket. It should lay to rest any such suspicions. Thanks, Sammie, for posting it.