15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Where the frak is Obama with an announcement of a Cabinet offer for Hillary?

I think it would be presumptuous (and probably unprecedented but I am ready to be corrected) for a Presidential candidate to make a Cabinet offer to anyone before he wins the election.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think it would be presumptuous (and probably unprecedented but I am ready to be corrected) for a Presidential candidate to make a Cabinet offer to anyone before he wins the election.

I completely concur. It would be construed as a sign of arrogance, and undoubtedly would be used against him in the General Election.

You can pretty much take to the bank that she will be offered something from Barack for her loyalty and assistance in helping him get elected. She isn't going to go out there and put passion and emotion into it for nothing. It's still politics, after all. But she absolutely deserves something if she can help him get elected.

And for the record, she is taking the right approach by not making this election about Sarah Palin and not mentioning her, other than the "No McCain. No Palin" line. Ignore her, and let the buzz die down. That process seems to have begun already, anyway.

This talk about the Economy and what went down with Lehman Brothers has essentially erased McCain's lead in the National Polls (thanks to the Palin Effect), and has taken it back down to a Tie once again.

It only works to McCain's advantage when the Top Issue becomes National Security. If the Top Issue is the Economy, then we see the effects. Barack needs to stay on Offense and keep the Economy as the Prime Focus and Talking Point in this election ... and keep harping on McCain's most recent gaffe that the "fundamentals of the economy are strong". That gaffe seems to be the biggest factor in costing McCain his lead in the polls.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, dudes, anything catch your attention?

That the Obama campaign is not in "freefall."

For all those Hillary bashers out there, you should be ashamed. Give this a listen and picture any other 'loser' going the distance like Hills.

http://www.barackobama.com/tv/ and click on the "Biden and Clinton" link

Hillary is a great Democrat and a great American and will work to ensure Obama's victory in November.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Great post above, Midnight. I concur...the Hills/Biden conference goes after issues and not Palin...the right thing to do. My strategy would be to pretty much ignore her. And B'back, if I could find him more voters, I would say to keep going after white women and those rural votes in the battleground states. You can't win in WI, MO, NC, VA, OH, and IN without pulling 40-45% rural voters. They are the ones who make or break those state elections. One would assume that Obama has peaked in the big cities within those states and he must now grow the rurall areas of those states.

Thank Tina Fey and Saturday Night Live, and that hilarious skit for Palin showing some decline this week. It's now cool for the public to mock her (I can see Russia from my house....). It was SNL that was instrumental in resurrecting Hillary in the primaries when they mocked the media for not vetting and slobbering all over Obama.

And B'back you mentioned how Obama has improved in WV compared to Gore / Kerry. The amazing thing about that stat is that he has made zero effort in the state. Hmmm...what would happen if he tried?

Hey, two new morning polls:

INDIANA -- Obama +3 -- Indy Star -- A surprise showing in the Hoosier State for Obama.

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +8 -- SurveyUSA -- Obama is spending this morning in the Land of Enchantment feeling good with this nice lead. Perhaps, NM is definitely trending toward him.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

For me, the surprising thing about the West Virginia polls, is that such a shift is going on there without any sign of one in Kentucky. Granted, the mountains of Eastern Kentucky trend Democratic, and are second only to the urban areas with respect to a Democratic base in Kentucky.

But it's just hard to imagine the race tightening up like it is in West Virginia without some effect spilling over the Big Sandy River into Kentucky.

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wow, there is a major shift in this election now. West Virginia of all states have McCain leading by just 3.5 points! LOL. Very unexpected. He was leading in that state by a 2-to-1 margin a couple of months ago. Louisiana is another game changer as well. McCain was leading in that state by 15 points, now it's narrowed to 8 points. If his poll numbers start trending down 5 points, Johnny Mac is in trouble. McCain has lost momentum in South Carolina with him just leading Obama by 7 points. Only 5 states in the South are solidly Republican while Obama is catching up in the traditionally Republican states.

The fear of the Stock Market collapsing and McCain's damning statement of "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" seem to be catching up now. Also, Biden is appealing to rural America and working class voters. A plus for Obama.

http://www.pollster.com/
South Carolina: McCain 46% Obama 39%
Louisiana: McCain 50% Obama 42%
West Virginia (now a toss up state): McCain 45% Obama 42%

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm still worried about Pennsylvania. I don't see how Obama can win without it. His "guns/religion" gaffe seems to have put one of the biggest blue states in play when it should have stayed in his back pocket. The anger over that comment was absorbed into support for Hillary at the time, and I betcha PA wouldn't be so close right now if Hillary was in the VP slot...

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm still worried about Pennsylvania. I don't see how Obama can win without it. His "guns/religion" gaffe seems to have put one of the biggest blue states in play when it should have stayed in his back pocket. The anger over that comment was absorbed into support for Hillary at the time, and I betcha PA wouldn't be so close right now if Hillary was in the VP slot...

The only way Obama can still win the election, without winning in Pennsylvania ... is to ensure wins in New Mexico and Colorado ... and pickup either Ohio or Florida in the place of PA.

Of PA, OH, and FL ... his best chance is obviously PA ... so he better not let it slip.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I watched the Biden/Clinton conversation linked above. I strongly recommend it to anyone who questions whether Sen. Clinton is insincere or tepid in her support of the ticket. It should lay to rest any such suspicions. Thanks, Sammie, for posting it.

Well, it demonstrates that, but she's still a power-hungry bitch who would be empress.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm still worried about Pennsylvania. I don't see how Obama can win without it. His "guns/religion" gaffe seems to have put one of the biggest blue states in play when it should have stayed in his back pocket. The anger over that comment was absorbed into support for Hillary at the time, and I betcha PA wouldn't be so close right now if Hillary was in the VP slot...

I know there's one Democrat in the Senate who is a gun owner who hunts and enjoys shooting. I don't know about his church affiliation -- I can't even remember who it is, at the moment. But it would do Obama well to get him out there to in some fashion show/make an apology.
It would drive the NRA crazy, having one of the few Democrats who believe in the dignity of individual life out there campaigning on the "wrong side" of things, but that would be good for them.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Lots of new afternoon polls:

COLORADO -- Obama +1 -- Nat'l Journal
FLORIDA -- 1) TIE -- Nat'l Journal; 2) TIE -- ARG; 3) McCain +6 -- SurvUSA
GEORGIA -- McCain +16 -- SurveyUSA
ILLINOIS -- Obama +16 -- Univ of WI
INDIANA -- McCain +4 -- Univ of WI
IOWA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- Univ of WI
MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- Univ of WI
NEBRASKA -- McCain +26 -- ARG
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +3 -- ARG
NEW MEXICO -- 1) Obama +7 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +8 -- SurveyUSA
OHIO -- 1) McCain +1 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +1 -- Univ of WI
PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
SOUTH CAROLINA --McCain +22 -- ARG
VIRGINIA -- McCain +7 -- Nat'l Journal
VERMONT -- Obama +24 -- Rasmussen
WISCONSIN -- Obama +1 -- Univ of WI

Okay, guys, what jumps out at you? My concerns would be PA and Iowa as ties, while FL twice as a tie would be a positive. New Hampshire would be a big concern while New Mexico continues to trend Obama. WOW...this is a fascinating race.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That Nebraska result intrigues me. What is it about a state so geographically far from our borders that makes people follow in droves a man whose only real selling point is national security?

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie what jumps out at me is that over the last 3 weeks or so as Obama's lead in Pa has decreased McCain's lead in Ohio has also decreased and that seems counterintuitive to me.

Iowa and Fla also appear to be moving opposite each other.

A fascinating race indeed where picking up support in one state seems to come at the cost of losing support in another.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie what jumps out at me is that over the last 3 weeks or so as Obama's lead in Pa has decreased McCain's lead in Ohio has also decreased and that seems counterintuitive to me.

Iowa and Fla also appear to be moving opposite each other.

A fascinating race indeed where picking up support in one state seems to come at the cost of losing support in another.

As we sit here perplexed, I think the word that we're looking for is fluid. Some of these states are so close that you feel like the last candidate to visit there will be the one who wins it.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Lots of new afternoon polls:

COLORADO -- Obama +1 -- Nat'l Journal
FLORIDA -- 1) TIE -- Nat'l Journal; 2) TIE -- ARG; 3) McCain +6 -- SurvUSA
GEORGIA -- McCain +16 -- SurveyUSA
ILLINOIS -- Obama +16 -- Univ of WI
INDIANA -- McCain +4 -- Univ of WI
IOWA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- Univ of WI
MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- Univ of WI
NEBRASKA -- McCain +26 -- ARG
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +3 -- ARG
NEW MEXICO -- 1) Obama +7 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +8 -- SurveyUSA
OHIO -- 1) McCain +1 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +1 -- Univ of WI
PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
SOUTH CAROLINA --McCain +22 -- ARG
VIRGINIA -- McCain +7 -- Nat'l Journal
VERMONT -- Obama +24 -- Rasmussen
WISCONSIN -- Obama +1 -- Univ of WI

Okay, guys, what jumps out at you? My concerns would be PA and Iowa as ties, while FL twice as a tie would be a positive. New Hampshire would be a big concern while New Mexico continues to trend Obama. WOW...this is a fascinating race.

I'm not buying into the Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia findings. And I remain cautious over differing conclusions about Florida.

Thanks, Sammie! I hope to read soon on the following: Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Texas.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not buying into the Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia findings. And I remain cautious over differing conclusions about Florida.

Thanks, Sammie! I hope to read soon on the following: Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Texas.

Hey Cool...go back and read post #509 from yesterday....I believe MO/MT/NV/TX were all on that post.

As a Georgian and ex-South Carolinian, I do not think Obama has much chance in either state. I'm guessing both will produce around a 10-14 point McCain margin. My guess about Iowa is the Palin effect, which could wear off. I think Obama will win NH and PA. I think McCain will likely take VA.

I would be interested in seeing some Arkansas numbers, too.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey Cool...go back and read post #509 from yesterday....I believe MO/MT/NV/TX were all on that post.

As a Georgian and ex-South Carolinian, I do not think Obama has much chance in either state. I'm guessing both will produce around a 10-14 point McCain margin. My guess about Iowa is the Palin effect, which could wear off. I think Obama will win NH and PA. I think McCain will likely take VA.

I would be interested in seeing some Arkansas numbers, too.

I'm talking about frequency of polling from those states.

West Virginia is really important. It's been historically on Democratic presidents' side in their winning elections. So I want see more polling here as well.

Arkansas has voted identically to Louisiana's record over the last ten elections. The last time both were picked a losing candidate was in 1968, when they backed ex-Alabama governor, and third-party candidate, George Wallace.

I stick with my prediction that Barack Obama will be elected as the next president of the United States. But these latest pollings are vital in giving me some indication of surprising development. I'm not terribly surprised with, say, W.Va.; I'm thrilled by it! It's La. closing to single digits that has gotten a reaction out of me (hence, wanting to see Ark. pollings).

By the way: Over the next few weeks, I'm anxious to see whether there's Obama-favored movement in Kentucky and Tennessee. Both have backed the winners of the past ten elections. But they also didn't get behind John F. Kennedy's 1960 election over Richard Nixon. I don't expect Obama to capture either state; but I want see if anything more positive develops in those polling numbers in the homestretch of this year's election.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13,

I meant to add the following.…

The last three presidents who were political party pickups never lost a single state that their respective party's losing candidate had won in the election just prior.

In other words: In 1980, Ronald Reagan won all of Gerald Ford's 1976 states. In 1992, Bill Clinton carried all of Michael Dukakis's 1988 states. And in 2000, George W. Bush retained all of Bob Dole's 1996 states.

So I agree with you, Sammie13: that, for an Obama victory, he'll carry all of fellow Democrat John Kerry's 2004 states—New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, included (of course).

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

COLORADO -- Obama +1 -- Nat'l Journal
FLORIDA -- 1) TIE -- Nat'l Journal; 2) TIE -- ARG; 3) McCain +6 -- SurvUSA
GEORGIA -- McCain +16 -- SurveyUSA
ILLINOIS -- Obama +16 -- Univ of WI
INDIANA -- McCain +4 -- Univ of WI
IOWA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- Univ of WI
MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- Univ of WI
NEBRASKA -- McCain +26 -- ARG
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +3 -- ARG
NEW MEXICO -- 1) Obama +7 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +8 -- SurveyUSA
OHIO -- 1) McCain +1 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +1 -- Univ of WI
PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
SOUTH CAROLINA --McCain +22 -- ARG
VIRGINIA -- McCain +7 -- Nat'l Journal
VERMONT -- Obama +24 -- Rasmussen
WISCONSIN -- Obama +1 -- Univ of WI

In addition to the above, a couple of more quick polls:

VIRGINIA -- McCain +2 -- InsiderAdvantage
WASHINGTON -- Obama +5 -- Strategic Vision
GEORGIA -- McCain +8 -- InsiderAdvantage
GEORGIA -- McCain +11 -- Rasmussen
COLORADO -- Obama +10 -- insiderAdvantage
CONNECTICUT -- Obama +12 -- Rasmussen
NEW JERSEY -- Obama +13 -- Rasmussen

That's a lot of polls, what do ya'll think?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Pollster now has Pennsylvania in the toss up states category!