15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

All kinds of goodies today from the polling world:

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +12 -- SurveyUSA -- no surprise from the Golden State.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +11 -- Rasmussen -- almost identical to yesterday's ARG poll; perhaps the Granite State is no longer a battleground.

NEVADA -- McCain +3 -- Rasmussen -- polls likely to remain tight in the Silver State.

IOWA -- Obama +4 -- SurveyUSA -- apparently, pollers are calling these poor folks in the Hawkeye State as they bag sand....leave'em alone, will ya?

GEORGIA -- McCain +1 -- InsiderAdvantage -- a stunner from the Peach State as McCain collects 44%, Obama 43% and Barr 6%.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought it would be interesting to track the numbers is 15 states I believe will play a large role in electing the next POTUS. Some people may have a different set of states, these are the ones that I believe are important at this point and time.

I think it will be interesting to track these numbers throughout the summer and fall and see what changes may occur, and what my thoughts are in each period.

While some may view my comments as partisan, I've made what I believe to be a concerted effort to look at the election from a nonpartisan stance.

At any rate, feel free to comment, but please remain on-topic. This is not a bashing thread, which I agree will be a immediate turn-off for some people here.

If the election was held today I believe Obama would comfortably win. But the real mood of the nation won't be apparent until September.

I invite anyone else to make your own slate and analysis!

Florida – 27 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 41.0 / McCain: 45.0
I think the poll is a little deceptive here. McCain has consistently led in Florida; I think he’s going to easily take Florida. If the news calls Florida for Obama, then Obama wins in a landslide. Advantage: McCain


Pennsylvania – 21 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 40.0
Survey USA actually has a 44-44 tie here. I think Obama has a slight advantage here, but McCain could pull this off. Advantage: Toss-Up

Ohio – 20 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/23/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 39.0
Other polls have this race a lot tighter. Ohio is still a toss-up. Advantage: Toss-Up

Michigan - 17 EV
Survey USA, 5/28/08, Obama: 37.0 / McCain: 41.0
Survey USA has Obama sinking fast, Rasmussen has Obama slightly up, but I think this is clearly a good chance for a McCain pick-up. Advantage: McCain

North Carolina – 15 EV
Public Policy Polling, 6/2/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 43.0
All polls indicate a consistent McCain lead, and most indicate that Obama has peaked. What I’m fascinated by is the fact that North Carolina is even in play. I think voter turnout will be everything here. If Obama can mobilize a large voter turnout, he could win here. Advantage: Toss-Up

Georgia – 15 EV
Quinnipiac University, 5/14/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 54.0
Again, all polls indicate a consistent and large McCain lead here. But I also feel that a large voter turnout could well put Georgia in play for Obama. If the news calls Georgia for Obama early in the night, Obama will win in a landslide. Advantage: McCain

Virginia – 13 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 42.0
Rasmussen indicates this is tighter than Survey USA would have us believe. It appears that Obama’s numbers have risen over the past month in Virginia. I think Northern Virginia and a larger than normal voter turnout down state will bring Virginia home for Obama. Virginia has gone purple over the past several years. Democratic pickups in Virginia in recent years are hard to overlook. Advantage: Obama


Missouri - 11 EV
Rasmussen Reports, 6/6/08, Obama: 43.0 / McCain: 42.0
The polls indicate Obama is rising in Missouri. Those same polls indicate a consistent trend downward for McCain. I think this state is up for grabs. Advantage: Toss-Up


Minnesota – 10 EV
Survey USA Poll, 6/2/08, Obama: 47.0 / McCain: 42.0
Obama has consistently led here; I don’t see that trend changing easily. Advantage: Obama

Colorado – 9 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 50.0 / McCain: 41.0
Here is another state that has turned purple over the past several years. Combined with the convention in Denver this year, I think this is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama


South Carolina – 8 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 45.0 / McCain: 48.0
No new polling here in recent months. I think some new polling data from South Carolina would be fascinating. I think Obama could win here if voter turnout is high, and the evangelical vote is lowered. The fact that this is even in contention is remarkable. Advantage: McCain

Iowa – 7 EV
Research 2000 for KCCI TV and KCRG TV, 4/27/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 41.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

New Mexico – 5 EV
Survey USA, 5/20/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 40.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

Nevada – 5 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 41.0
Rasmussen has Obama dropping and McCain rising. I think we need some new polling in Nevada. Some may feel like this is a safe state for Obama, but I’m not ready to make that call. If McCain can’t win in neighboring Nevada he will not be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up


North Dakota – 3 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 42.0
Sparse polling from North Dakota; we definitely need some new numbers here. If Obama wins here he will be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up

Let me answer it this way (given this was posted a couple weeks back, and there has been more polling; see below link to Electoral-Vote.com).…

I predict that all of Senator John Kerry's (D-Massachusetts) states from 2004 will remain in the Democratic Party's win column. They'll remain blue. Even New Hampshire, which loves presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain (Arizona). I predict it will remain blue. That state is likely to send Republican U.S. Senator John Sununu packing, after November 2008 election, and replace him with former governor Jeanne Shaheen.

What will ultimately happen is the presumptive Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama (Illinois) will win the presidential election and become the 44th president of the United States. He'll do so in winning both the popular vote and the electoral college.

For states I anticipate Obama flipping: the three bellwethers—Missouri (11; it has voted for the winner in every election since 1904 with exception of 1956); Nevada (5; it has voted for every president elect since 1912 with exception of 1976); and Ohio (20; ever since we've had Republican Party-vs.-Democratic Party presidential matchups, dating back to 1856, no Republican president has ever won the election without carrying this state; four Democratic presidents, in five elections, have prevailed without Ohio).… Colorado (9), Iowa (7), and New Mexico (5) have been polling as likely Democratic pickups (Ia. and N.M. voted for Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and President George W. Bush in 2004; Bush won N.H. in 2000 but lost it to Senator John Kerry in 2004).… Add to it GOP stronghold Virginia (13). And, perhaps surprisingly, Indiana (11).… Then look at Florida (27) as going either way (it's normally GOP-favored; but former president Bill Clinton carried it in 1996 and it was in former president Jimmy Carter's win column in 1976). Also consider latest polling putting the following—initially expected to remain red but lately appearing to be in play—Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (13), Montana (3, which Bill Clinton won in 1992), and West Virginia (5). (Those five states may remain red indeed. But W.V. is one to consider because every time a Democrat has been elected president, he has carried W.V. Only one exception: the 1916 re-election of Woodrow Wilson.)

If you stop at my listing up to Virginia, that's an Obama victory with 322. Thing is, he has plenty potential to go further.

In another thread ("A re DEMS gonna blow it?," http://www.justusboys.com/forum/showthread.php?t=219892), I commented that we, historically, have not been electing over the last 75 years the incumbent political party in the midst of a terrible economy and/or unpopular war. Add to that the recent and current low-approval numbers on President George W. Bush's performance, and I'm not sweating over any upset here. (Not yet. And, most likely, not at all…going all the way to Election Day.) A pattern has been established—with 1932, 1952, 1968, 1980, and 1992 strong examples of American voters not rewarding the incumbent political party re-election in any of those election years—and I'm confident this will continue in 2008.


http://electoral-vote.com/

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Very good analysis, CoolBlue

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I noticed that Obama is running the first campaign ads of the young general election season in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Of my 15 original states to watch, only Minnesota and South Carolina didn't make the list. In retrospect, I wish I had included Montana, rather than Minnesota, on my list. But all in all I'd say I almost hit a bullseye. LOL!

I just saw this Obama ad in Cowtown today.



Effective.

These are the ads that McCain has been running:





Pathetic.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

From a round-table discussion on Salon covering many of the states discussed here. I've highlighted GA and the "Barr" effect:

Douthat: One of the things people have been talking about recently is Georgia, where you have this interesting dynamic: On the one hand, Bob Barr, former Georgia representative, Republican turned Libertarian presidential candidate, is running reasonably strongly in the initial polls there, picking up 5 to 6 percent of the vote. On the other hand, Georgia has a very large African-American population. The Obama people are talking up the voter registration drives they're doing and there have been polls that show, with Barr factoring in, that state being very close. I'm pretty skeptical about it, only in the sense that when push comes to shove, even in Georgia, Bob Barr is not going to get 6 percent of the vote. He's going to get 1 to 2 percent of the vote and I don't think that's enough to tip that kind of state. Over the long run, Barr is not your ideal third-party candidate. He's not a sort of celebrity figure, he's not a terribly appealing figure. So I don't think that will be in play at the end, but it is an interesting potential dynamic.

Maslin: Kerry lost by 16 points in Georgia. If Barack Obama wins Georgia, he won't be worrying about the Electoral College on election night. It'll be a 400-vote Electoral College landslide.

I like the last comment! There's lots more on other states:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/06/24/270_roundtable/index1.html

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Quinnipiac has some new polls out that look good for Obama:

* Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
* Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.

Michigan is a little closer than I would have thought, but Minnesota and Wisconsin show big Obama leads: Tim Pawlenty probably couldn't overcome a 17 point lead.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Quinnipiac has some new polls out that look good for Obama: Michigan is a little closer than I would have thought, but Minnesota and Wisconsin show big Obama leads: Tim Pawlenty probably couldn't overcome a 17 point lead.

I'm surprised about MI, too, Zinger especially considering the comparable leads Obama has in WI and MN. Still, he's in the lead (I think a MI poll a few weeks ago had McCain up by a little.) Also, the MI primary debacle may be having a lingering effect on Obama's polling.

Pawlenty might be upset, but I bet Norm Coleman is terrified and Al Franken is feeling good!

I'm not surprised by the poll in CO. Obama trounced Clinton in the caucus with almost 70% and almost every Republican in CO supports Romney and mistrusts McCain. The poll confirms a disturbing trend for the GOP in CO. There is a close Senate race for a retiring Republican US Senate seat that the Dems would likely pick up if Obama wins the state.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

For the Michigan polls, remember what I have said before (perhaps on another thread): if Kerry could get only 83% of the black vote, surely Obama can get more than 90%, and increase the number of blacks who are mobilized in the process? That should make MI an easy win. I always think of MI as a state with a large black community or is it only Detroit? I have no idea.

The last black American to check into my youth hostel last week was from Saginaw, MI. Since the town is the title of a country and western song, I expected it to be as rural as hick. Guess I could be wrong.

MI has a total black population about 13%. Detroit is over 80% black. The other major center of the black population is in Benton Harbor, in the southwest of the state, about an hour north of Chicago. The center of the lower peninsula, including Saginaw, is very "redneck."

Two things will boost Obama's chances in MI (and elsewhere):

1) There will be a much higher turn-out of black voters than previous elections. (As others have pointed out, this is an emerging phenom that pollsters are grappling with)
2) He'll get more than 90% of the black vote.

If Obama is trailing McCain in MI come late October, his campaign will be in serious trouble.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Now that I've returned from out west visiting one of the battleground states, here are some of the "best of..." this week's state presidential polls:

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +6 -- Rasmussen -- it seems like every poll from the Magnolia state shows Obama closing in more and more. Very interesting!

OHIO -- Obama +2 -- SurveyUSA -- Buckeye state polls consistently close.

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +16 -- Fairleigh Dickinson -- McCain says this is a battleground state, however, this quaint little college's poll from the Garden state says otherwise.

TENNESSEE -- McCain +15 -- Rasmussen -- The greenest state in the land of the free and the home of the grand ol' opry finds McCain with a comfortable Volunteer state lead.

MISSOURI -- McCain +7 -- SurveyUSA -- The Show Me state is showing McCain the love right now.

TEXAS -- McCain +5 -- TX Lyeum -- Deep in the heart of Texas, there are some conservatives wondering if Obama can really pull off a stunner in the Lone Star state.

NEW MEXICO #1 -- Obama +3 -- SurveyUSA
NEW MEXICO #2 -- Obama +8 -- Rasmussen -- either poll you look at it, the Land of Enchantment finds Obama with a single-digit lead.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Obama leads consistently although by greatly varying margins in the many polls coming out of the Keystone state.

INDIANA -- Obama +1 -- SurveyUSA -- The Hoosier state continues to surprise as a genuine battleground state for '08.

OREGON -- Obama +3 -- SurveyUSA -- Deep in the heart of Duck country, there are some liberals sipping latte and wondering if McCain can really pull off a stunner in the Beaver state.

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

OREGON -- Obama +3 -- SurveyUSA -- Deep in the heart of Duck country, there are some liberals sipping latte and wondering if McCain can really pull off a stunner in the Beaver state.

Is this directed at me, Sammie13? Not only am I sipping a latte, I'm sipping a soy latte! Forget liberal -- clearly I'm a Bolshevik.

The poll you cite is surprising. One person who most certainly does not believe the race is that close is our Republican Senator Gordan Smith, who's running for reelection. One of his ads tries to establish his bipartisan bone fides; he talks about reaching across the aisle to work with... Barack Obama! I've never heard of a Republican Senator bragging about his working relationship with the Democratic Presidential nominee during his reelection campaign.

Smith has another ad out where he's endorsed by a former House member and a state Senator, both Democratic women; again, the ad stresses his bipartisanship. Smith has apparently concluded that now is not a good time to be an Oregon Republican.

 

[Jaime]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

african-american and latino votes aside, i just don't see obama taking north carolina. hell, we had john edwards on the 2004 ticket, and the state still went overwhelmingly in favor of bush.

north carolina tends to go pretty heavily democratic in local and state elections, but at the national level, we still go republican. not only do i predict a strong mccain win in nc, but i think liddy dole is going to keep her senate seat. and i'm not happy about either prospect.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of fresh, new polls:

VIRGINIA -- Obama +2-- SurveyUSA -- Old Dominion isn't just for lovers as clearly presidential rivals will also be seeing some action there between now and November.

ARIZONA -- McCain +9 -- Rasmussen -- The Hero's home field advantage in the Copper state is down to single digits now.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Now that I've returned from out west visiting one of the battleground states, here are some of the "best of..." this week's state presidential polls:

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +6 -- Rasmussen -- it seems like every poll from the Magnolia state shows Obama closing in more and more. Very interesting!

OHIO -- Obama +2 -- SurveyUSA -- Buckeye state polls consistently close.

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +16 -- Fairleigh Dickinson -- McCain says this is a battleground state, however, this quaint little college's poll from the Garden state says otherwise.

TENNESSEE -- McCain +15 -- Rasmussen -- The greenest state in the land of the free and the home of the grand ol' opry finds McCain with a comfortable Volunteer state lead.

MISSOURI -- McCain +7 -- SurveyUSA -- The Show Me state is showing McCain the love right now.

TEXAS -- McCain +5 -- TX Lyeum -- Deep in the heart of Texas, there are some conservatives wondering if Obama can really pull off a stunner in the Lone Star state.

NEW MEXICO #1 -- Obama +3 -- SurveyUSA
NEW MEXICO #2 -- Obama +8 -- Rasmussen -- either poll you look at it, the Land of Enchantment finds Obama with a single-digit lead.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Obama leads consistently although by greatly varying margins in the many polls coming out of the Keystone state.

INDIANA -- Obama +1 -- SurveyUSA -- The Hoosier state continues to surprise as a genuine battleground state for '08.

OREGON -- Obama +3 -- SurveyUSA -- Deep in the heart of Duck country, there are some liberals sipping latte and wondering if McCain can really pull off a stunner in the Beaver state.

Missouri—highlighted in red—I don't buy into. SurveyUSA was the latest polling [June 22], and suddenly the Show-Me State moves to McCain by seven points. Prior to that polling, according to http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com, SurveyUSA also had two separate polls from May 17 (one showing McCain leading by three; the other with Obama up by 2). In between, Rasmussen Reports had Obama up June 3 by 1 point. This has not been consistent. The few hundred surveyed—and this is one state that will be…in development. The Show-Me State may end up being showing this time in what to "Show"! (Interesting articles here on leading bellwether Missouri, which has voted the president elect since 1904 with exception of 1956: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-missouri_thufeb07,1,5021373.story, http://www.slate.com/id/2101779/, and one blog I liked, http://drnik46.blogspot.com/2008/02/missouri-bellweather.html.)

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Missouri—highlighted in red—I don't buy into. SurveyUSA was the latest polling [June 22], and suddenly the Show-Me State moves to McCain by seven points.

It's interesting that some state polls seem far more volatile than others. MO is always a tough nut to crack...I do think it will be a McCain state unless we're heading into a blowout election. I looked at the tracking for Missouri-- all polls at real clear politics were from Ras. and Survey USA since Dec. Obama only has lead in 2 out of a dozen polls. He's lead only once in the last four polls (the 1 pt lead that you referred to). This 7 pt lead really didn't seem that far out of line with most of Missouri's previous polling numbers, IMHO.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Rasmussen went straight to the hot and humid Southeast for the newest round of polls:

FLORIDA -- McCain +7 -- The Hero has lead in all of Rasmussen's weekly Sunshine state polls, although Obama clips the margin by about one point each time. Here's the disheartening news if your an Obamakan: McCain has a 57% favorable rating vs. Obama's 44%. On the unfavorable numbers, McCain dropped from 21% to a mere 18% negative, while in the last week, Obama's negatives have soared from 29% to 40%-- a 22 point negativity differential favoring McCain.

ALABAMA -- McCain +15 -- The Heart of Dixie continues to look good for McCain, but there is bad news: his lead has tumbled from 28 to 15 points in the latest poll compared to Rasmussen's previous AL poll. McCain holds a favorable advantage over Obama by a 60-47 margin.

GEORGIA -- McCain +10 -- While Survey USA's recent poll had McCain's lead at 1 point, Rasmussen has now shown McCain up by 10 in two consecutive Peach state polls. Libertarian Barr was at only 1%; however, another six percent said they preferred him to McCain, but were more likely to vote McCain. Rasmussen says that these soft McCain supporters could bolt to Barr if a McCain loss is inevitable.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think Rasmussen exaggerates the results in GOP's favor. One observer noted, at another Web site, Rasmussen Reports pulled that in 2006—even though other sources were predicting wins to the extent the Democrats experienced. When the polls offer up 500 or 1,400, it's not really enough. All in all, it's only a current polling.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of new polls again from the South.

FLORIDA -- Obama +2 -- PPD Polling -- While Rasmussen finds McCain consistently on top, PPD shows Obama with a slight edge in the Sunshine state.

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +4 -- PPD -- Seems to be pretty consistent in the Tarheel state with McCain up by a few.

LOUISIANA -- McCain +16 -- Southern Media & Opinion Research -- Obama doesn't even have the bite of a mosquito in the Bayou state.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Several new polls from the Northeast and Southeast.

CONNECTICUT -- Obama +21 -- Quinnipiac -- Obama cruising in Joe Lieberman's Nutmeg State.

MASSACHUSETTS -- Obama +20 -- Rasmussen -- Obama sailing in the Bay state...doubtful if Romney on the ticket could narrow the margin here.

NEW YORK -- Obama +20 -- SurveyUSA -- The Empire state rounds out Obama's strong northeastern presence.

FLORIDA --McCAIN +8 -- Strategic Vision -- In the last 3 days, we've seen Sunshine state polls with McCain +7, Obama +2 and now McCain +8...McCain wins the poll consensus.

GEORGIA -- McCain +8 -- Strategic Vision -- In the last week, Peach state polls have had McCain lead by 10, 1, 10 and now 8 points. In this poll, Libertarian Barr took 3%.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few more new polls from key states:

MONTANA -- Obama +5 -- Rasmussen -- This poll from Big Sky Country has to be alarming to McCain....this should be his kind of state.

WASHINGTON -- Obama +8 -- Strategies 360-- Not a big surprise from the Evergreen state, but still the state sometimes is a battleground.

GEORGIA -- McCain +2 -- InsiderAdvantage -- A Dixie-based polling firm known for its accuracy now has twice shown the Peach State to be leaning GOP by only 1-2 points (McCain 46, Obama 44, Barr 4) with Barr being a factor.

The GA poll also found that native son Sen Nunn, who has been mentioned frequently as a viable Veep, would make a difference for Obama. 51% said Nunn makes them more likely to vote Obama, 11% say less likely, and 38% undecided/no difference.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_73_460.aspx

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In a recent correspondence with a Professor of Political Science at my University who taught a class I took last fall, he indicated that the fluctuations in different pollsters data is explained by the intentional sample sizes they take.

He suggested that Rasmussen and Gallup have been gathering data on the assumption that the party breakdown and demographic breakdown will be as it was in 2004, while PPP, Quinni and other polls are operating using the large democratic registrations, anticipating increased African-American and 18-29 yr old turnout to gather their results.

Say what you like about either method. Gallup/Rasmussen, while being cautious in their samplings may be misleading as they're polls operate under the assumption of 2004 ratios, and be skewed towards McCain. Likewise PPP and Quinni which anticipate higher Dem, minority and youth turnout may be overly optimistic for Obama.

Note that it is Quinni and PPP that show Obama with larger leads in the swing states of OH, PA, FL and MI. Gallup and Ras show closer contests.

I personally think PPP and Quinni have the right idea. Excepting any election day antics, the Democrats should have vast numbers of new voters enthusiastic about their candidate compared to a depressed number of Republicans many of whom are not satisfied with McCain, and an opportunistic Bob Barr (who may ultimately receive the backing of one Ron Paul) waiting to leech disaffected Republicans.

I'm betting on Obama easily taking IA, PA, CO and NM, and squeaking by in VA, NV and OH. FL, IN, NC will be true toss-ups while Obama has the opportunity to make real inroads in MT, AK, GA, MS and TX. MI should easily belong to Obama unless McCain picks Romney as his veep, in which case it's a toss-up.

You know it's bound to be a bad year for Republicans any year a Democrat is remotely competitive for President in Alaska, Montana, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. If Obama actually visits Alaska, he may well take the state.

Also interesting is McCain's unremarkable 9 point lead in his home state of Arizona, which with any other R-candidate would be a toss-up.

I fully expect as of now, that Democratic turnout will be unlike anything seen before, with the potential to remake the political map in a manner unlike we've seen since 1968.