15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few more new polls from key states:

MONTANA -- Obama +5 -- Rasmussen -- This poll from Big Sky Country has to be alarming to McCain....this should be his kind of state.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_73_460.aspx

The Montana result doesn't surprise me. Neither candidate is high on the right of self defense, and McCain isn't high on free speech. They're both controllers, but Obama comes across as more of an individualist, McCain too much as a man desperately seeking to impose the rigid discipline that sustained him in the Hanoi Hilton on everything around him.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More fresh, new polling state polling data:

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +5 -- Rasmussen -- In one month, Obama has slipped from an 11 to a 5 point lead in Rasmussen's Garden state poll.

MISSOURI -- McCain +5 -- Rasmussen
McCain +3 -- PPP (Public Policy Polling) -- Polls appear to be consistent from the different polling operations that McCain has a small Show Me state lead.


NJ and most national polls have shown McCain closing rather fast lately. Daily national tracking polls are showing likewise. I think Obama is on the unpopular side of the offshore drilling/nuclear power plant issue and his tax increase message for the over $250k population may not be resonating with any voter during this economic downturn. Plus, he received some jeers for his apparent Iraq withdrawal backtrack.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oh, and two more not-so-big-surprises:

ALABAMA -- McCain +13 -- AEA/Capital Survey -- The Heart of Dixie not the blow-out that it once was for McCain, but still a comfortable margin.

KANSAS -- McCain +13 -- TargetPoint -- Obama's home in the Sunflower state continues to blossom for McCain.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More interesting new state polling data- -"11" seems to be Obama's lucky # today:

WISCONSIN -- Obama +11 -- Rasmussen -- Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in America's Dairyland...lead previously by 2 pts in Ras.'s poll

NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +1 -- Rasmussen -- The Roughrider state, which has only gone Democratic once since 1936, is proving to indeed be a battleground state. The race is TIED if you count only firm support, but leaners tilted the race to The Hero.

MAINE -- Obama +11 -- Pan Atlantic -- Obama continues his double digit Pine Tree state lead--a state that has two female Republican US senators.

ILLINOIS-- Obama +11 -- Rasmussen -- Obama's current home state has found his popularity dip a little bit; however, still a solid Prairie state lead.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wasn't WI the state that Kerry carried by 0.38%? Then a 2 point lead sounds already good. If Obama could add a few points to Kerry's votes in battleground states, he'd win.

But a week is a century in politics. Sixteen-hundred years to go!

Yeah, B'back, Wisconsin has been toying in the last two elections with the GOP. Looks like the Badger state is back on track if these numbers hold up.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Zogby has released a veritable potpourri of state wide polling data. Some of these states are eye-opening. All of the polling was done through June 30. They use a new polling format that was unveiled in 2006 where they forecasted 17/18 US Senate races accurately....losing only Missouri where McCaskil edged Jim Talent...however, they were still within the margin of error.

They note that Libertarian Barr is having a big impact on certain races, particularly in Colorado, Arizona, New Hampshire, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia. Here are some interesting states from Zogby:

OREGON -- Obama +16

ARIZONA -- Obama +3 -- Barr is doing tremendously well with self declared "very conservative" voters in AZ. Don't expect this to hold up in the Copper state.

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +16 -- Obama has opened up a huge lead in the Land of Enchantment.

NEVADA -- Tied --The Silver state is in a dead heat.

COLORADO -- Obama +2 -- Every poll has the Centennial state close.

MISSOURI -- Obama +2 -- For the record, in the swinging Show Me state, my money is on McCain.

IOWA -- Obama +4 -- The Hawkye state put him on the map, and appear to be sticking with him.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +16

OKLAHOMA -- McCain +5 -- when is the last time the Sooner state had a presidential poll this close?

TEXAS -- McCain +3

WISCONSIN -- Obama +10

INDIANA -- McCain +1 -- Consistently, we keep finding the Hoosier state presidential race more compelling than a Notre Dame football game. Could Evan Bayh as Veep put Obama over the top here?

MICHIGAN -- Obama +14 -- this poll from the Wolverine state seems inconsistent with the closeness of other Michigan polls. Among its highlights: Obama +4 with white voters; tied among male voters; McCain lead by only 7% among over age 65 voters (a small lead among seniors compared to other states); McCain's only income lead was with those making over $250K.

OHIO -- Obama +5

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +10 --Keystone state lead keeps growing.

NEW HAMSPHIRE -- Obama +3

ARKANSAS-- Obama +2 -- Could Hillary & Bill help him close the deal in the Natural state or will Huckabee help McCain correct this?

LOUISIANA -- McCain +7

TENNESSEE -- McCain +5 -- McCain struggles some in TN; early polls had Hillary sometimes winning here. Will Gov Bredesen, congressman Harold Ford, Al Gore, and the popular Clintons help Obama tighten this race?

KENTUCKY -- McCain +5 -- Closer than expected in the Bluegrass state.

ALABAMA -- McCain +11 -- The Yellowhammer state is out of the Dems reach.

GEORGIA -- McCain +6

FLORIDA -- McCain +4

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Obama +1 -- The Palmetto state potentially breaking from the solid south? Don't tell Lindsey Graham, he might bitch slap the closest Democrat.

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +9 -- This Tarheel state poll seems out of synch with others.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +5 -- might Obama win the state for lovers without the help of an Old Dominion as Veep?

http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1524

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Zogby has released a veritable potpourri of state wide polling data. Some of these states are eye-opening. All of the polling was done through June 30. They use a new polling format that was unveiled in 2006 where they forecasted 17/18 US Senate races accurately....losing only Missouri where McCaskil edged Jim Talent...however, they were still within the margin of error.


TEXAS -- McCain +3


http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1524

I think this is definitely one of the biggest eye openers. That's pathetic for McCain, given that particular state.

But, if this trend continues in Texas, and this state eventually turns Blue, this will unquestionably give Dems a huge advantage going forward in future elections.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think this is definitely one of the biggest eye openers. That's pathetic for McCain, given that particular state.

But, if this trend continues in Texas, and this state eventually turns Blue, this will unquestionably give Dems a huge advantage going forward in future elections.

Yeah, perhaps Obama should add Texas to his battleground list. Texas would essentially end the race...giving Obama 3 of the Big 4 (CA, NY, TX, FL). I think I would pull Richardson and Hillary and some other surrogates into the state to keep it in play.

Of the 26 states that I listed from the new Zogby research, I found 10 surprises:

A) 2 total shocks that I had not seen in any polling: Obama winning in Arizona and South Carolina. Arizona? Granted, I think these GOP Barr supporters will slide back into their home state senators column. But, what does that say about local enthusisam there?

B) 3 states that were more lopsided than in previous polls: New Mexico, Michigan and North Carolina....all in Obama's favor.

C) 5 states that surprised me by their closeness as the presumption was they were "safe" for one side. They are: Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Obama actually leads in Arkansas. Of course, all of these states were expected to be easy McCain states.

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hmm seems that Zogby is falling in with the Quinnipiac, PPP and Pew crowed with polling samples. Gallup and Rasmussen continue to show much closer/greater leads for McCain in many of these states.

As for Texas, time will tell if this is an outlier, but a three point lead is statistically meaningless given a presumed at least 3 pt MoE.

THE NATION had a good article about the Democratic revival currently taking hold in the Lone Star State

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/moser

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hmm seems that Zogby is falling in with the Quinnipiac, PPP and Pew crowed with polling samples. Gallup and Rasmussen continue to show much closer/greater leads for McCain in many of these states.

As for Texas, time will tell if this is an outlier, but a three point lead is statistically meaningless given a presumed at least 3 pt MoE.

THE NATION had a good article about the Democratic revival currently taking hold in the Lone Star State

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/moser

Za-Ja, it sounds like their having fun again in Texas; LBJ, Ann Richards and Lloyd Bentsen would be proud.

In regards to the Texas Zogby poll, the margin of error was only +/- 1.7%. A few other notes about the outcome:

McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
Barr - 6%
Nader - 2%
Someone else - 4%
Undecided - 7%

Surprisingly close race due to Barr's 6% and Obama's dominance among African-Americans and young voters. Obama leads Hispanics by only 5%.

Obama must work on the Hispanic voting block...5% won't cut it!

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I must say that I'm fairly stunned as to the apparent media blackout of this Zogby poll. Perhaps because it gives the impression of a wrap for Obama, and the main stream media likes a horse-race for ratings they are ignoring it, but really the only place I've seen mention of this is on the rag HuffPo of all places not even Kos has mentioned it.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I must say that I'm fairly stunned as to the apparent media blackout of this Zogby poll. Perhaps because it gives the impression of a wrap for Obama, and the main stream media likes a horse-race for ratings they are ignoring it, but really the only place I've seen mention of this is on the rag HuffPo of all places not even Kos has mentioned it.

Yep...I'm a little surprised, too. Perhaps the Zogby press releases didn't go out. We all know how lazy the media are....they like news served on a silver platter. Otherwise, just stick with Sammie13 News-- LIVE...LOCAL...LATE-BREAKING....and when news breaks out, Sammie Breaks In!!!

Actually, Za-Ja, most of the media focus has been on the daily tracking polls tightening in the race. There has been a pattern now for the last 1-2 weeks of McCain pulling within the margin of error. Then there is the national Newsweek poll where Obama's rather eye-opening 15pt lead in June has wilted to a measley 2 point lead in July. The Zogby polls ended June 30; Obama's slippage has been in July. Now, with Gramm re-focusing America on McCain's economic message or lack thereof, perhaps Obama will move up again. Indeed, the electorate seems to move on every gaffe.


B'back writes regarding Obama's Arizona lead:

Or stay at home in November? Or spend the day looking for a job?

With gas likely at $5 a gallon by November, who can afford to drive to their job...or to the polls? I advise Arizonans to just stay home....save money, save the planet! Actually, there is a Gov in Arizona who could help Obama pull an upset...yeah, you're right, wrong thread!

And the latest polls:

WASHINGTON -- Obama +8 -- Rasmussen -- The Evergreen state is tightening a little bit.

MISSOURI-- Obama +5 -- Research 2000 -- Seems to be an endless supply of Show Me state polls, surely by now everyone in the state has participated in a poll. This one matches up precisely with the Zogby poll.

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not so sure it's a sign of a flagging Obama popularity, or what a difference few weeks can make. It has to do with the fact that Newsweek's sample DRASTICALLY changed their sampling.

Their first poll showed party ID as such:

Rep:26
Dem:38
Ind:36

This poll the sampling was as follows:

Rep: 32
Dem: 32
Ind: 36

Obviously Party identification hasn't swung six points in two weeks, Newsweek just changed their sampling to 2004 demographics (just as Gallup and Ras are doing) while their last poll was done under the assumption of increased Dem turnout that is expected to occur.

The media likes a horse race, so they're making one for themselves.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

While there was some acknowledgement by Princeton Survey that the June Newsweek poll had some sampling errors, I think the problem is Obama's recent "behavior" has alienated some independent voters whom he had previously done so well. After all, it's us indies who swing like a pendulum.

In the June Newsweek poll, Obama beat McCain 48-36 with 16 undecideds. In the July Newsweek poll, McCain beat Obama 41-34 with 25% undecided. Since both samples had 36% self-declared independents, I think this factor played a bigger role than the reduction of self-declared Democrats in the polling. Also, the June poll included only 26% self-declared Republicans...doesn't that sound odd to you? I mean...we're a nation almost evenly divided between the parties, and although there is much lethargy among the GOP right now, they historically turn out in high fashion....the Christian churches essentially will them to the polls.

One other interesting note about the Newsweek poll. If Obama could bring in those "working class whites" to the Democratic tent in a respectable number, the election could easily be his for the taking. The poll shows that 85% of the undecideds are non-Hispanic whites with 78% of this group possessing less than a 4-year degree. These may be the "soccer moms" or "nascar dads" of previous elections. They're ripe for the taking (and dare I say, these were often Hillocrats back in the spring).
http://www.newsweek.com/id/145737

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hmm I used "sample" and "sampling" redundantly up there....pay it no mind

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In my opinion, these daily tracking polls are just a beauty contest; they don't really mean anything. As was so clearly learned in the primary process, it's about the delegates, and who is winning each state is far more important than a national daily tracking poll.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

What I don't see in the polls you quote is the number of undecideds. I've always heard most Americans don't make up their minds until after the summer

Actually, if you go back and re-read, I did cite the # of undecideds from the Newsweek poll--16% in June, 25% in July.

Most Americans do decide early on whom they are voting. That's because most Americans are loyal to one party or the other; hence, once the general election season rolls around, the fight is for the independent, swing voters. While the # of party loyalists can vary slightly election to election, most consider 38-43% of the US population is Democratic loyal/leaning and 38-43% is Republican loyal/leaning. Thus, 15-25% of the population is Independent, and it's that population that McCain and Obama are currently in high-speed pursuit.

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In my opinion, these daily tracking polls are just a beauty contest; they don't really mean anything. As was so clearly learned in the primary process, it's about the delegates, and who is winning each state is far more important than a national daily tracking poll.

Too true. Daily tracking polls as well as National Polls in general are meaningless for an election based on winning individual states.

Of course, the media, liking a horse race, tends to report on these polls the most with headlines like "Why is Obama only three points up on McCain?" ...

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, some of the latest, greatest poll data:

LOUISIANA -- McCain +20 -- Rasmussen -- Looking like a blowout for McCain in the Pelican state...looks like they think he is the man who can help re-build the bayou.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +8 -- Rasmussen -- Obama appears to be turning the tide in the Wolverine state.

COLORADO-- Obama +4 -- Public Policy Polling -- The Centennial state continues to look like a nailbiter (in the last week, +2 w/ Ras. and +2 w/Zogby.).

SOUTH DAKOTA-- McCain +4 -- Rasmussen -- In the early June primary, Obama was trounced in the Mt Rushmore state, but looks to be re-bounding and closing in on the Hero.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +18 -- Rasmussen -- So, could Gov Pawlenty really unravel this kind of lead in the Land of 10,000 (or 12,000) Lakes (or ponds)?

IOWA -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen -- This is the biggest lead we've seen for Obama in the Hawkeye state.

NORTH DAKOTA -- TIED -- Rasmussen -- It's like kissing your brother in the Rough Rider state...or better, it's like making out with your brother in the 'Peace Garden'.

 

[Za-Ja-BoManner]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That South Dakota poll is a shocker.