Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
What would be realistic in the Electoral College is as follows.…
John McCain Wins: He keeps the 2000 George W. Bush states—including New Hampshire (which backed John Kerry of neighboring Massachusetts in 2004)—for a total of 278 electoral votes.
For McCain to go deeper would mean his type of proposed leadership would win over the electorate. That's how he would move the likes of Michigan (17) and Pennsylvania (21). But if he gets those two to switch, he'd be liable to go deeper—for example, New Englanders Connecticut (7) and Maine (4) have voted identically to Mich. over the last ten elections (1968-2004). And Washington (11, disagreeing with Mich., Conn., and Me. only in 1988) and Oregon (7, disagreeing with Mich., Conn. and Me. only in 1968) would probably agree as well. (Pa. disagreed with Mich., Conn., and Me. only in 1976.) That potential adds up to 345.
To duplicate 2004—with N.H. in his win column—McCain would have to hold onto Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), for a total of 357 electoral votes.
Barack Obama Wins: Like the last three party-switching presidential winners—Ronald Reagan (1980), Bill Clinton (1992), and George W. Bush (2000)—Obama would retain all of his party's previous losing candidate's states. The 2004 John Kerry amassed a total of 252 electoral votes between 19 states and the District of Columbia.
From that point, he'd likely win back Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5)—which backed Bush in 2004—and win the three leading bellwethers (Missouri, 11; Nevada, 5; Ohio, 20), for a total of 300. Though there's skepticism on his winning all three, we've seen it play out that way for 20 of the last 25 elections (1908-2004). (Latest polls show it is Obama's neighboring Mo. that looks least reluctant.) Add to it either Florida (27) and/or Georgia (15), which have—in all of the past 25 elections—backed every Democratic president (Woodrow Wilson won Fla. and Ga. in 1912; Franklin Roosevelt won both every time, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944; Harry Truman won both, in 1948; John Kennedy won Ga., in 1960; Lyndon Johnson won Fla., in 1964; Ga.'s Jimmy Carter won both, in 1976; Bill Clinton won them separately—Ga., in 1992; Fla., in 1996). One or both, in mind again, and I'm more inclined to buy into Fla. Total so far: 327.
Though the polling has tightened, Colorado (9) has looked more healthy for Obama during the election year. And given their identical voting history over the last 15 elections (1948-2004), Montana (3) is in play. Total: 339. Two of eleven states voting GOP in all of the past ten elections, Virginia (13) and Obama's neighboring Indiana (11) may make the switch as well. That's 363 electoral votes.
The way I've been seeing it—and with polling still consistently favoring Obama in the popular vote (yeah, even for it to get down to 3…2…1…or a statistical tie)—I think it's more realistic to predict Obama for the win in November. Even though latest polling in final week or so of July, and to this point in August, suggests McCain is closing gap in states Obama is competitive, still doesn't change that Obama is competitive—and forces McCain to have to defend the likes of Colo., Mont., Ind., and—woa!—Va. And this doesn't mention Alaska and North Carolina and North Dakota, neither. That's not good news for McCain and the GOPs. For Obama to lose, what the Illinois senator would have to do is go out of his way to hand the election to McCain. Whether it's ineptitude or laziness via his campaign and the eventual debates, I don't see it happening. (For it to happen, American voters would go out of their way to reject him. That gets into controversial matters.)
A couple months back, I listened to Alan Colmes's radio show (far more rewarding, naturally, then seeing him co-host Fox News' Hannity & Colmes) as he interviewed Pat Robertson. With Obama having reaped the delegates needed for his party's nomination, Robertson went ahead and told Colmes that he believes it is the Hillary Clinton voters who will decide this year's election. I believe he's right. And if that does materialize, it will reflect in the U.S. popular vote—and likewise in the Electoral College that will bring in states some don't believe (at this point) will be in Obama's win column: Florida and Missouri, for example.
.
), but none this week. The last 2 Michigan polls were from Rasmussen (Obama +4) and PPP (Obama +3); the last 2 Ohio polls were strikingly different -- Rasmussen (McCain +10) and Quinnipac (Obama +2).
. Nobody can lose like a Democrat. It's astonishing in national polls how poorly Obama does relataive to the current US backdrop. My yard man could poll better against the GOP right now.