15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

I thought it would be interesting to track the numbers is 15 states I believe will play a large role in electing the next POTUS. Some people may have a different set of states, these are the ones that I believe are important at this point and time.

I think it will be interesting to track these numbers throughout the summer and fall and see what changes may occur, and what my thoughts are in each period.

While some may view my comments as partisan, I've made what I believe to be a concerted effort to look at the election from a nonpartisan stance.

At any rate, feel free to comment, but please remain on-topic. This is not a bashing thread, which I agree will be a immediate turn-off for some people here.

If the election was held today I believe Obama would comfortably win. But the real mood of the nation won't be apparent until September.

I invite anyone else to make your own slate and analysis!

Florida – 27 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 41.0 / McCain: 45.0
I think the poll is a little deceptive here. McCain has consistently led in Florida; I think he’s going to easily take Florida. If the news calls Florida for Obama, then Obama wins in a landslide. Advantage: McCain


Pennsylvania – 21 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 40.0
Survey USA actually has a 44-44 tie here. I think Obama has a slight advantage here, but McCain could pull this off. Advantage: Toss-Up

Ohio – 20 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/23/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 39.0
Other polls have this race a lot tighter. Ohio is still a toss-up. Advantage: Toss-Up

Michigan - 17 EV
Survey USA, 5/28/08, Obama: 37.0 / McCain: 41.0
Survey USA has Obama sinking fast, Rasmussen has Obama slightly up, but I think this is clearly a good chance for a McCain pick-up. Advantage: McCain

North Carolina – 15 EV
Public Policy Polling, 6/2/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 43.0
All polls indicate a consistent McCain lead, and most indicate that Obama has peaked. What I’m fascinated by is the fact that North Carolina is even in play. I think voter turnout will be everything here. If Obama can mobilize a large voter turnout, he could win here. Advantage: Toss-Up

Georgia – 15 EV
Quinnipiac University, 5/14/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 54.0
Again, all polls indicate a consistent and large McCain lead here. But I also feel that a large voter turnout could well put Georgia in play for Obama. If the news calls Georgia for Obama early in the night, Obama will win in a landslide. Advantage: McCain

Virginia – 13 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 42.0
Rasmussen indicates this is tighter than Survey USA would have us believe. It appears that Obama’s numbers have risen over the past month in Virginia. I think Northern Virginia and a larger than normal voter turnout down state will bring Virginia home for Obama. Virginia has gone purple over the past several years. Democratic pickups in Virginia in recent years are hard to overlook. Advantage: Obama


Missouri - 11 EV
Rasmussen Reports, 6/6/08, Obama: 43.0 / McCain: 42.0
The polls indicate Obama is rising in Missouri. Those same polls indicate a consistent trend downward for McCain. I think this state is up for grabs. Advantage: Toss-Up


Minnesota – 10 EV
Survey USA Poll, 6/2/08, Obama: 47.0 / McCain: 42.0
Obama has consistently led here; I don’t see that trend changing easily. Advantage: Obama

Colorado – 9 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 50.0 / McCain: 41.0
Here is another state that has turned purple over the past several years. Combined with the convention in Denver this year, I think this is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama


South Carolina – 8 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 45.0 / McCain: 48.0
No new polling here in recent months. I think some new polling data from South Carolina would be fascinating. I think Obama could win here if voter turnout is high, and the evangelical vote is lowered. The fact that this is even in contention is remarkable. Advantage: McCain

Iowa – 7 EV
Research 2000 for KCCI TV and KCRG TV, 4/27/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 41.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

New Mexico – 5 EV
Survey USA, 5/20/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 40.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

Nevada – 5 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 41.0
Rasmussen has Obama dropping and McCain rising. I think we need some new polling in Nevada. Some may feel like this is a safe state for Obama, but I’m not ready to make that call. If McCain can’t win in neighboring Nevada he will not be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up


North Dakota – 3 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 42.0
Sparse polling from North Dakota; we definitely need some new numbers here. If Obama wins here he will be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've got to say, I'm surprised by the polling in Michigan. I was sure that McCain's earlier comments about the jobs not coming back would sink him there. But if Romney's on the ticket, all bets are off.

I suspect that North Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida are long shots for Obama.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I suspect that North Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida are long shots for Obama.

Of those states, I'd give Obama the best chance in North Carolina.

I think voter turnout is going to be even more of a factor this cycle. Will the young people show up and vote? Can Obama poach some evangelicals from McCain or even get them to stay home on election day? How many of these newly registered Dems comes out to vote.

Interestingly, Obama beat McCain in votes in the primaries in such states as Georgia. I think the mobilization, or lack thereof, of the evangelical vote could be a huge factor.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, Snapcat, I'll play. I have 5 disagreements out of your 15 states.

Michigan: You: McCain , Me: Obama (unless Romney is the VP)
N.C. You: Toss-up Me: McCain
Missouri: You: Toss-up Me: McCain
N. Mexico: You: Obama Me: Toss-up
N. Dakota: You: Toss-up Me: McCain

I think his problems with white rural voters will motivate the Show-Me state whites to counter the city blacks in K.C. and St Louis. The McCain folks are targeting 40% of the Hispanic vote which they say will create a win in those western block states. Dems keep looking at old maps, because Hispanics aren't too excited by Obama....hence, NM is a tossup. ND is traditonal GOP ground and look how poorly Obama did in SD. I'm not sold yet on Obama's strength in N.C. Since the late '80's, Dems poll great there until the closing weeks, and the GOP seems to slide in. Snap, if you read the thread from Zing on "Georgia A Battleground?" from last week, we discussed Bob Barr's impact on NC and GA. He could be a game-changer in favor of Obama if he gets his 5-10% of the vote AND Obama gets the high turnout. Barr is polling very well in both states.

 

[Yngbldhwk]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I would give MI and possibly OH to Obama. People tend to vote their pocketbooks, and the unemployment numbers seem to be worsening each month. It would also not surprise me (and, in fact, I'm expecting it) to see gasoline prices at $4.50 to $5.00 per gallon by November.

I'm surprised Wisconsin isn't on your list. Obama will take his home state of IL and probably MN, but WI and IA are questionable. If he loses one or, God forbid, both states, then the election is probably over. WI may be harder to win than many people think. An Obama candidacy brings out the "youth" vote... but it also brings out the "protest" vote -- people that will vote, perhaps for the first time in their lives, just to deny the presidency to an African-American. And this isn't going to show up in polls, because people will lie about it.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought this was a well written article from the L.A Times talking about the battleground states and ever-changing landscape. And another reason the Obama campaign is feeling good about VA and GA:

In Georgia and Virginia, about 700,000 African Americans who are eligible to vote are not registered, and Obama has the money and volunteer force to sign them up, said Steve Hildebrand, his deputy campaign manager

.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-map5-2008jun05,0,5018624.story?page=1

Ultimately, he says it will come down to the Great Lakes and Southwestern US.

I agree, too, that some maps include WA, OR, MN, WI, ME, and NJ as battlegrounds.

 

[josher]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^^Not really. Both states have regularly elected Democratic governors and senators. Virginia was the first state to elect a black governor in postreconstruction times.

I can easily see Obama winning in Pennsylvania. Gore and Kerry won there, I believe.

I would be very surprised (but pleased), if he won Virginia.

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the Wilder point is well taken. When was he elected? 88? 90? I think it's safe to say that Virginia was considerably more conservative back then, especially given the growth of the DC suburbs.

 

[josher]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^^I've lived in both states. I doubt there's any greater degree of racism in Pa or Va than anywhere else.

If Obama looses in Virginia, it's because it's a very conservative state unless you're in northern Viriginia.

 

[josher]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the Wilder point is well taken. When was he elected? 88? 90? I think it's safe to say that Virginia was considerably more conservative back then, especially given the growth of the DC suburbs.

1985

Wilder was a very moderate Democrat and the party controlled the Va House and Senate. (He had been the Senate majority leader.)

The Dems also won both the Lt. Gov. and AG races (for the last time) that year.

Turnout in northern Virginia and downstate will determine whether Obama or McCain wins the state. If there's a heavy downstate vote, Obama will be in trouble.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't really have time at this moment to go and post polls, so I am going to go on instinct and other polls that I've read over the past couple days for each of these states.

Florida – 27 EV
Advantage: McCain

Agreed. McCain has Florida in the bag.

Pennsylvania – 21 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

I believe Obama is going to take Pennsylvania, according to the polls I've seen.

Ohio – 20 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

I see Ohio going Blue in November.

Michigan - 17 EV
Advantage: McCain

I see Obama pulling it off, unless Mitt Romney is the VP for McCain.

North Carolina – 15 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

I am going to go out on a line here and predict that Obama will take North Carolina.

Georgia – 15 EV
Advantage: McCain

McCain has Georgia. Write it off.

Virginia – 13 EV
Advantage: Obama

Agreed. Obama will take Virginia.

Missouri - 11 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

I agree. Toss Up.

Minnesota – 10 EV
Advantage: Obama

I think Obama has Minnesota.

Colorado – 9 EV
Advantage: Obama

Obama will take Colorado.

South Carolina – 8 EV
Advantage: McCain

McCain has South Carolina.

Iowa
Advantage: Obama

Agreed. Obama should take this one easily.

New Mexico – 5 EV
Advantage: Obama

Richardson will help deliver New Mexico to the Dems.

Nevada – 5 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

This one is going to be close. Too close for me to call.

North Dakota – 3 EV
Advantage: Toss-Up

I see McCain taking North Dakota.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

1985


Turnout in northern Virginia and downstate will determine whether Obama or McCain wins the state. If there's a heavy downstate vote, Obama will be in trouble.

I don't necessarily agree with that point. If there is a larger than normal African American turnout, Obama will have Virginia in the bag, especially given the demographic of Northern Virginia, now.

I also think Obama will peal away some of the evangelical vote. If you disregard the issues - and some voters will - Obama sounds like he has religion. McCain doesn't. And Obama doesn't need to win very many of the evangelicals to be elected president.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't necessarily agree with that point. If there is a larger than normal African American turnout, Obama will have Virginia in the bag, especially given the demographic of Northern Virginia, now.

I also think Obama will peal away some of the evangelical vote. If you disregard the issues - and some voters will - Obama sounds like he has religion. McCain doesn't. And Obama doesn't need to win very many of the evangelicals to be elected president.

Quite true. Really though, it's so much even Obama winning Southern Evangelicals asit is keeping them home. The Republican party has a big issue with McCain: he's too conservative-centrist - too weakly religious for the far right and too conservative socially and weak on economics for the libertarians. Although, with the very discontent Hillary voters, you might see a lot of stay-at-homes or third party candidate votes for both sides.

 

[playwithmemonkey]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There is a long way to go before election day and things will change.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There is a long way to go before election day and things will change.

Very true, so hopefully we can map some changes in the mood of the nation here.

I really think the nation has finally reached a tipping point for change. I think we're going to be looking at a totally different set of swing states as the nation becomes more purple than red.

 

[EvilForce]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Florida – 27 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 41.0 / McCain: 45.0
Advantage: McCain

Toss up

Pennsylvania – 21 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 40.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

Obama

Ohio – 20 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/23/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 39.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

Obama

Michigan - 17 EV
Survey USA, 5/28/08, Obama: 37.0 / McCain: 41.0
Advantage: McCain

Normally I would say Michigan is a shoe in for Dems, but the economy in MI is so awful right now.....who knows...... Toss Up

North Carolina – 15 EV
Public Policy Polling, 6/2/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 43.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

McCain no question.

Georgia – 15 EV
Quinnipiac University, 5/14/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 54.0
Advantage: McCain

Unknown. With Bob Barr, running for the Libertarians, the Reps not very excited about McCain, I could see Obama take GA on a 3 way split. Advantage: Obama

Virginia – 13 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 42.0
Advantage: Obama

Obama win safely.

Missouri - 11 EV
Rasmussen Reports, 6/6/08, Obama: 43.0 / McCain: 42.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

Toss Up

Minnesota – 10 EV
Survey USA Poll, 6/2/08, Obama: 47.0 / McCain: 42.0
Obama has consistently led here; I don’t see that trend changing easily. Advantage: Obama

Watching the caucuses here, and knowing this state as well as I do since I live here. Obama. No ifs, no ands, no buts. Obama. Period.

Colorado – 9 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 50.0 / McCain: 41.0
Advantage: Obama

Obama wins handily.

South Carolina – 8 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 45.0 / McCain: 48.0
Advantage: McCain

McCain wins.

Iowa – 7 EV
Research 2000 for KCCI TV and KCRG TV, 4/27/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 41.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

The Iowa economy is the best it has been in 30 years. Between food prices, farmers, and a low cost of living..... I say toss up. Why change what's working?

New Mexico – 5 EV
Survey USA, 5/20/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 40.0
Advantage: Obama

Obama wins on a squeaker.

Nevada – 5 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 41.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

Toss up

North Dakota – 3 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 42.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

[/quote]

ND traditionally goes Rep. Farm economy doing ok. Such a small state...who knows? Toss up. Slight, tiny advantage to Obama.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

This morning on MSNBC, Chuck Todd had Mississippi and Louisiana as battleground states. At this juncture in June, there really are alot of theories on who will be the hotly contested states. This development, if it continues, will be a good thing much like 1992, when so much of the country was being contested. In '00 and '04, it seemed like only 6-8 states were getting any attention. It's not fun being left out.

I have a theory on these southern battleground states. I don't think pollsters quite know how to put a formula in place for the states with high African American populations. Formulas are often based on history, and they aren't sure how to account for black turnout in 2008. The ones that are showing the closer spreads (one had MS at 6% and SC at 9%--single digits this early typically gets you a battleground designation) are probably adjusting for higher turnout. The problem is that in this region race and political parties affiliation run so close along party lines. Will the possibility of a black Democrat also generate higher GOP turnout? Will Obama capture enough white votes to overtake McCain? Obama got 40% of the white Democratic primary vote in GA but that was before his preacher and "clinging" controversies. Later-voting southern states saw that 40% white voter drop into the 20's. Will the turn the trend around? And how many fiscal GOP conservatives or anti-war conservatives will GA's Bob Barr steal from McCain? All of this will be fascinating to watch over the coming months.

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

One thing I hadn't noticed earlier was that Iowa was in the swing column. The race was razor thing in 2000 and 2004, but I don't see it this way now.

1) Obama gets the neighboring state advantage, and he won the caucus. That might not be worth much, but it might be worth a little.

2) Isn't McCain reviled in Iowa over the corn subsidies issue? He skipped the caucus in 2000, and I don't remember exactly how he did this year, but it was pretty bad.

Also -- given Clinton's talking point the last few weeks of having won the important states -- has anyone gone back and looked at whether there is any correlation at all between primary success and general election success?

 

[jockboy01]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Florida – 27 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 41.0 / McCain: 45.0
Advantage: McCain

Agreed... McCain takes FL imo... unless a large shift in the demographics of the voters which I don't see.

Pennsylvania – 21 EV
Quinnipiac University Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 40.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

I think Obama wins here. No landslide, but I think it looks certain.

Ohio – 20 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/23/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 39.0
Other polls have this race a lot tighter. Ohio is still a toss-up. Advantage: Toss-Up

I think Obama wins here easily.

Michigan - 17 EV
Survey USA, 5/28/08, Obama: 37.0 / McCain: 41.0
Survey USA has Obama sinking fast, Rasmussen has Obama slightly up, but I think this is clearly a good chance for a McCain pick-up. Advantage: McCain

I can't make a call here. I think it's a toss up and very close in november.

North Carolina – 15 EV
Public Policy Polling, 6/2/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 43.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

McCain takes NC imo.

Georgia – 15 EV
Quinnipiac University, 5/14/08, Obama: 40.0 / McCain: 54.0
Again, all polls indicate a consistent and large McCain lead here. But I also feel that a large voter turnout could well put Georgia in play for Obama. If the news calls Georgia for Obama early in the night, Obama will win in a landslide. Advantage: McCain

McCain hands down here.

Virginia – 13 EV
Survey USA Poll, 5/22/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 42.0
Advantage: Obama

As stated, an interesting state. NoVA is quite liberal. I think it'll go blue actually.

Missouri - 11 EV
Rasmussen Reports, 6/6/08, Obama: 43.0 / McCain: 42.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

Agreed.

Minnesota – 10 EV
Survey USA Poll, 6/2/08, Obama: 47.0 / McCain: 42.0
Obama has consistently led here; I don’t see that trend changing easily. Advantage: Obama

Yeah, I think Obama wins easy here.

Colorado – 9 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 50.0 / McCain: 41.0
Here is another state that has turned purple over the past several years. Combined with the convention in Denver this year, I think this is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

It'll be interesting. I had enough faith in my home state that they would have turned bluer than they are. Ultimately, I think it'll be closer than these numbers show and I wouldn't be surprised to see a McCain victory here. It's getting bluer with CA influx, but it's by no means blue.

South Carolina – 8 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 45.0 / McCain: 48.0
Advantage: McCain

Iowa – 7 EV
Research 2000 for KCCI TV and KCRG TV, 4/27/08, Obama: 49.0 / McCain: 41.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

New Mexico – 5 EV
Survey USA, 5/20/08, Obama: 48.0 / McCain: 40.0
This is a safe bet for Obama. Advantage: Obama

Agree on all of these.

Nevada – 5 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 41.0
Advantage: Toss-Up

I think Obama wins without a doubt here.

North Dakota – 3 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 42.0
Sparse polling from North Dakota; we definitely need some new numbers here. If Obama wins here he will be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up

Toss up... probably McCain. Curious as to how you think it'll play a big role in electing the POTUS... it's only got three EV and nobody really pays attention to it.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A nice short artilce on mapping out the election from the Wall St Journal. It discusses what the key markers likely will be on gauging where we are with the election. Some scenarios of an Obama landslide, a McCain win, or a tight, close race are given.

If Sen. Obama is ahead solidly in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia and competitive in Florida, he will be headed for the Oval Office with a mandate.

Ohio is the single most important state. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying it, and if Sen. Obama could win it, the chances of Sen. McCain breaking the pattern are slim, although possible.

http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperce...ping-the-08-battlegrounds/?mod=googlenews_wsj

*Obama can win by winning most or all of the Kerry states including PA/OH/MI and adding one or two
*He could use a western flank of adding NM, NV, CO to offset some problems in PA/OH/MI
*He could try penetrating some into the South to win or, at a minimum, divert Republican time and money by challenging in VA,NC, GA and maybe MS and LA.

McCain just needs to hold onto the Bush states, and hope a VP like Romney can help maintain the mountain west and deliver MI.