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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Coolblue, you may be right about MI...certainly, if I was a gambling man, I'd put MI in the Dem column. I do think Romney would muddy the waters. Right now, MI is rightufully pissed with both parties, and who knows where they'll take out their frustration. Romney is very eloquent at speaking to the economy--in fact, I would say he is maybe the most comfortable person whom I've ever seen run for the White House at talking econ issues (Forbes does come to mind, but Romney is better spoken).

Regading the Senate, coolblue, who do you see as the most vulnerable incumbents from either party. Alaska seems to be a tight one, anywhere else we should look?
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More new polls...one is perplexing.

FLORIDA -- McCain+2 -- ARG -- Election still appears a toss-up in the Hanging Chad state.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +2 -- Consistent with yesterday's UNH poll which had Obama with a +3 lead

OHIO -- McCain +10 -- Rasmussen -- This contest had McCain at +6 without leaners. Yesterday's PPP poll had Obama at +8 so a big swing between the two polls. One difference is that PPP does not name 3rd party candidates. Rasmussen gives you a 3rd party option, but then tries to get the voter to name who would they support if not for the 3rd party candidate. Many Barr supporters then lean toward McCain. I read it, but I can't say that I understand it as I would think this would make McCain do more poorly in the Ras poll versus better. Also, in Ohio, there were some odd patterns of voting in the Ras poll --- with 18-29 year olds, McCain won 50-39% and with 30-39 year olds, McCain won 67-33. Obama easily won the fortysomethings and McCain won the senior vote by single digits. Again , the theory is that the younger votes gets skewed because they have cell phones instead of land phones. So, the youth sampling is smaller and may get skewed if you happen to call a slightly higher number of McCain voters.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
Coolblue, you may be right about MI...certainly, if I was a gambling man, I'd put MI in the Dem column. I do think Romney would muddy the waters. Right now, MI is rightufully pissed with both parties, and who knows where they'll take out their frustration. Romney is very eloquent at speaking to the economy--in fact, I would say he is maybe the most comfortable person whom I've ever seen run for the White House at talking econ issues (Forbes does come to mind, but Romney is better spoken).

Regading the Senate, coolblue, who do you see as the most vulnerable incumbents from either party. Alaska seems to be a tight one, anywhere else we should look?
Click to expand...

Let's take the Senate question…
Republican: New Hampshire's John Sununu. No doubt he'll lose to Democratic challenger, and former governor, Jeanne Shaheen.
Democratic: Mary Landrieu. But I think the senior Louisiana senator will win re-election…and that no Dem incumbent will lose.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Jul22-s.html

As for Romney in Michigan…
His dad, George (1907-1995), governed the state from 1963-69. Mitt, born in 1947 Detroit, governed Massachusetts. And we know Mass. isn't about to vote GOP (it hasn't since 1984, Ronald Reagan's unusual 49-state victory over Walter Mondale). Interesting that media overlooks which state Mitt lead.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
More new polls...one is perplexing.

OHIO -- McCain +10 -- Rasmussen -- This contest had McCain at +6 without leaners. Yesterday's PPP poll had Obama at +8 so a big swing between the two polls. One difference is that PPP does not name 3rd party candidates. Rasmussen gives you a 3rd party option, but then tries to get the voter to name who would they support if not for the 3rd party candidate. Many Barr supporters then lean toward McCain. I read it, but I can't say that I understand it as I would think this would make McCain do more poorly in the Ras poll versus better. Also, in Ohio, there were some odd patterns of voting in the Ras poll --- with 18-29 year olds, McCain won 50-39% and with 30-39 year olds, McCain won 67-33. Obama easily won the fortysomethings and McCain won the senior vote by single digits. Again , the theory is that the younger votes gets skewed because they have cell phones instead of land phones. So, the youth sampling is smaller and may get skewed if you happen to call a slightly higher number of McCain voters.
Click to expand...


This latest with Ohio I do not buy. In fact, Rasmussen Reports is the only polling source that has had John McCain always leading Barack Obama. So you bet I question this. Consider all of the following.…


From Wikipedia.org (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008)…

Ohio, in July…
July 22 Rasmussen: John McCain ahead of Barack Obama, 46 to 40 percent ("leaners," 52 to 42 percent).
July 17-20 Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 40.

Ohio, in June…
June 17 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 44 to 43 percent.
June 11-30 Zogby: Obama ahead of McCain, 43 to 38.
June 20-22 Survey USA: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 46.
June 9-16 Quinnipac University: Obama ahead of McCain, 48 to 42.
June 14-15 Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead of McCain, 50 to 39.

Pre-nominations, in Ohio
May 15 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 45 to 44 percent.
April 8 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 47 to 40 percent.
March 13 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 46 to 40 percent.
February 17 Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Obama, 42 to 41 percent.





Interesting take on Rasmussen's Ohio polling from FiveThirtyEight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)…


Dueling Ohio Polls

Rasmussen has a new poll out in Ohio where they show John McCain with what they headline as a "modest lead". Actually, McCain's lead is 6 points, and 10 including leaners, which I would probably describe as a little bit more than modest. This comes on the heels of a [Public Policy Polling] released just yesterday that had shown Obama with a not-so-modest lead of 8 points.

So, what the hell is going on here? Is this the party identification issue again — PPP tending to identify more Democrats in its sample than Rasmussen? Only up to a point. Neither pollster lists their party ID figures explicitly, but from what best I can tell, Rasmussen has the numbers at about 36/43/21 (Republican/Democrat/Independent) and PPP at 32/44/24. The party ID advantage accounts for about 4 points' worth of difference. For instance, if you took PPP's internals and weighted them as Rasmussen does by Rasmussen's party ID numbers, Obama would hold a 4-point lead rather than 8. That's still pretty significantly different from McCain leading by 10 points.

What else accounts for the differences between the two polls? Rasmussen initially permits one to select a third-party candidate — and 7 percent of voters do — whereas PPP does not. But then they push voters who have picked a third-party candidate toward one of the major-party candidate with a standard "who are you leaning toward?" question — and most of those leaners wind up with McCain. So it's possible that you have a number of fairly conservative voters who are dissatisfied with John McCain and are flirting with the idea of voting for Bob Barr — but will gravitate back toward McCain in the end.

The polls were also conducted at different times; all of Rasmussen's interviews were conducted Monday whereas PPP's were conducted Thursday through Sunday. The conventional wisdom has been — and frankly, my assumption has been — that Obama would get a little bit of a bounce out of his Iraq trip. This would directly contradict that, although I think we'll need to see quite a bit more evidence before we can reach a firm conclusion.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More power polling from big battleground states. Several polling sources now have this race overall much closer than one month ago. Obama chance's of winning in November had been at around 63%, but has now dropped to about 58%. State wise:

FLORIDA -- Obama +2 -- Rasmussen -- This is a significant poll from the Blue Hairs Behind the Steering Wheel state because it is the first from Ras. in over 6 months to show Obama with a lead, albeit statistically insignificant. Last month, McCain lead in FL by +7; in the last 6 months, McCain has always lead from anywhere between 7 and 16 points. Time for the Hero to launch Crist and Lieberman onto the Orange Blossom Trail.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +13 -- Rasmussen -- Numbers in the North Star state keep growing for Obama.

COLORADO -- Obama +3 -- Rasmussen -- These are firm supporters; however, if you account for leaners in the Centennial State, Obama's lead stretches to +7.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +2 -- Public Policy Polling -- Interesting thing about PPP's Old Dominion poll is that it is evenly divided between non-independents at 50/50 turnout; most polls, this cycle, are giving Dems an "assumed" higher turnout; this one assumes the party loyalists will turn out equally.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Thanks, coolblue, for the link. I think they were being a little overly optimistic for the Dems, but good stuff nevertheless.


New polling:

First, Zogby's July electoral map features 4 states that have changed colors-- red=GOP, blue=Dems, purple=too close to call. The changes:

ARKANSAS -- The Natural state goes from Purple to Red
ARIZONA -- The Grand Canyon state goes from Purple to Red.
FLORIDA -- The Hanging Chad state switches from Red to Purple
SOUTH DAKOTA --The Mt Rushmore state goes from Red to Purple.

Current electoral count: Blue -- 273; Red -- 146; Purple -- 119


Secondly, some new state polls:

MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- Quinnipiac --The Land of a Whole Bunch of Lakes shows a 15pt dip for Obama from Quinn. June poll. Also, yesterday's Ras. poll had Obama at +13.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- The Granite state is very consistent as 3 polls this week with Obama up by 2, 3 and 4 pts.

COLORADO -- McCain +2 -- Quinnipiac -- The first poll to date with McCain leading in the Centennial state. This was also a 7 pt swing from Quinn. June poll that had Obama +5 in CO.

WISCONSIN -- Obama +11 -- Quinnipiac -- Obama only feel 2 pts in the Badger state compared to Quinn's June polling of all the cheeseheads.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- Quinnipiac -- Another 2 pt drop in the Wolverine state for Obama compared to June's Quinn. poll

The one big consistency is that Obama dropped from June in every Quinn. poll. Their data revealed voters are disconnected from his energy policy. Hey, I've been harping on these boards for the last 3-4 weeks that Obama would pay a price for being on the wrong side of the offshore drilling issue. The poll found 1 in 10 voters changed their opinion on offshore drilling and ANWR due to rising fuel prices. Also, voters ranked energy policy OVER the Iraq war as the top issue.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And the state polls just keep rolling in....


NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +3 -- Research 2000 -- Johnny Mac must be feeling "squirrely" about his small lead in the Flickertail state. Who would've thought Any Dakota would be a battleground state...much less, both of them? And I'm loving ND because it has a lot of nicknames (hey, we all have our own agendas:D).

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- Rasmussen -- The key to the Keystone state may be getting these folks out of their sour mood-- only 30% aprove of Pres Bush handling of his job and only 44% approve of Gov Rendell's handling of his job. Almost 50% of PA poll participants think the media is in the tank for Obama. Still, this is his biggest Ras lead to date here and is +6 when leaners are included.

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +9 -- Research 2000 -- McCain gets to do the Rebel Yell to celebrate his Magnolia state lead. I suppose you could say a single-digit lead in Ole Miss is a moral victory for Obama. Also note to coolblue, R2000 polling found the Senate race between Repub Wicker and Dem Musgrove dramatically tightening from last month....The Wicker had a +1 lead.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

At this point, I will still predict Colorado votes for Obama in November. Rasmussen's polling of the state, Tuesday, was Obama +7.

As for Minnesota, I'm also not buying into that one neither. Obama will carry it. But he'll win it by at least 6 points.

I gotta say these polls are becoming either suspect or laugh-inducing. Whether Rasmussen is constantly telling us McCain is winning Ohio, or Quinnipac reveals McCain pulled ahead in Colorado. I find myself stating what I'm buying into. What I'm not. Four years ago, I never checked out any one given poll. Funny.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

CoolBlue71 said:
I gotta say these polls are becoming either suspect or laugh-inducing. Whether Rasmussen is constantly telling us McCain is winning Ohio, or Quinnipac reveals McCain pulled ahead in Colorado. I find myself stating what I'm buying into. What I'm not. Four years ago, I never checked out any one given poll. Funny.
Click to expand...


I get your skepticism and frustration. The thing I always keep in mind is that I don't care for any specific poll, but prefer to look at them collectively. In that manner, they are very indicative of trends. And, of course, there are always the outlier polls to contend with. Of benefit, for example, lately the state and national polls have shown growth by McCain. That seems pretty consistent in 80% of the state/national polls since the first of July. That is useful information that is reflective of where this election currently resides. Now, we're going to have to see if Obama gets any juice out of the overseas trip and McCain's recent gaffes. More recently, I think Obama's dip was from his energy plan and the pub over flip-flops and his abrupt-appearing move to the center. Going forward, there should be bounces from Veep selections and conventions...then, onward to the debates for more bounce....grab your motion sickness meds;).

Chris Matthews of MSNBC was on "Morning Joe" today. He did an excellent breakdown of where this election is after looking at all the data. Despite him being an Obama jock sniffer, he says this race is a tie right now. Despite the un-popularity of the current adminstration, America is just not sold on Obama. Further, Matthews pondered if Obama is going to have a ceiling of 45%. He says Obama has just not shown an ability to break that ceiling, and if Democrats are too confident they may be in for a rude surprise come November. He noted that while McCain is putrid at deliverying speeches, McCain is superior to Obama in retail politics. McCain wants to meet and shake hands with everybody in the room, and Obama is more of a rock star who just wants to jump on the stage and then make the fast exit. Hence, Obama is having problems connecting with many voters. At the same time, McCain, Matthews noted, is not able to convey that he can relate to real problems that average people are having in this economy. He went on to say that both candidates need Veeps who can deliver some talents for "feeling the pain of real people". He added that this ability to relate is a critical characteristic that a Democrat must have. So, who does Matthews think can most bring some "touchy, feely" relatability to the ticket? Hillary! He says Hillary had this nailed down by the end of the democratic nom process. I think he's right, too; Hillary much like her hubby relates to working people. She is their voice.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few new polls:

COLORADO -- Obama +4 -- Frederick -- Another Obama small lead as he anticipates a Rocky Mountain High in November.

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +6 -- Rasmussen -- Obama drops 2 pts from Ras. previous poll in the Land of Enchantment.

MAINE -- Obama +20 -- Critical Insights -- A big lead for Obama in the home of Daddy Bush....but note, the polling was from June 1 to June 27, and is just now being released.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^^Matthews is obsessed with the racial aspect of this race. He is constantly talking about whether or not Obama can reach the "real" Americans. Implying that Obama isn't one of them. He is not an analyst. He talks based on his gut.

Rasmussen has an interesting take on the status of the race:

The Myth of a Toss-Up Election
Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^They're not saying that. Just that, at this point in time, it's not necessarily the neck and neck horse race that the media is hyping.

It's interesting to read, but until the conventions and debates most of this analysis is worthless.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That was a good read. The analysis is darned good.

The conventions are the next big critical point: a good convention for both will likely just keep things going as they are; a bad one for either could tip things. Though Obama probably has more room for error; likability, as Reagan discovered, can cover a lot of "Oops!" -- and Obama has likability, while McCain doesn't. If McCain makes a significant faux pas, it will do a lot more damage because so many of his supporters don't really seem to think he's worth going to the polls for anyway.

So the thing to do at this point is to watch for McCain to stumble -- then, it may be possible to forecast a landslide.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of new state polls (the poll-haters don't have to feel obligated to read this...):

SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +13 -- Research 2000 -- From the Low Country and the Pee Dee to the rolling hills of the upstate, McCain is surging ahead in the Palmetto state.

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen -- Yet another state where Obama has taken a big tumble; in the previous Ras. poll, Obama lead the Golden state by +28. The problem appears to be with non-affiliated voters--in the previous poll here, Obama lead this group by +23, now he and McCain are tied 39-39.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

doctorwellington said:
i really doubt the american people pick the president. how do u win the popular but lose the electoral? its all bs. they will pick our president
Click to expand...

The American people don't pick the president. They never have, and hopefully they never will. The states pick the president, albeit in a rather clumsy method that still lets just a few pretty much dictate to the rest.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kulindahr said:
The American people don't pick the president. They never have, and hopefully they never will. The states pick the president, albeit in a rather clumsy method that still lets just a few pretty much dictate to the rest.
Click to expand...

why do you say that? as frightened as i am of the masses, i'm personally in favor of a more democratic process in this country. i've always thought that the electoral college is a heap of elitist bullshit.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

that argument never made any sense to me. my vote should count the same regardless of whether i live in wyoming or new york city. the states shouldn't be voting for the president; the citizens should. if the majority of the citizens support a particular candidate, it shouldn't matter what state they live in.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Perhaps it should break down to percentages. For example, if 60 percent of New York votes for Obama, then 18 or 19 of the state's electoral votes go Obama. If 55 percent of Texas vote for McCain, 18 or 19 of the state's 34 electoral votes go to McCain.
 
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