15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Perhaps it should break down to percentages. For example, if 60 percent of New York votes for Obama, then 18 or 19 of the state's electoral votes go Obama. If 55 percent of Texas vote for McCain, 18 or 19 of the state's 34 electoral votes go to McCain.

I think that would be more fair. Having no distinction between 51% and 99% of the vote within a state is kind of stupid imo.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

why do you say that? as frightened as i am of the masses, i'm personally in favor of a more democratic process in this country. i've always thought that the electoral college is a heap of elitist bullshit.

It's quite the opposite: it was an attempt to make sure that the "elites" of the bigger states couldn't just romp over the rest.

I like the electoral college! It gives small states like Wyoming and the Dakotas the chance to puch above their weight, if not much. California has 60 times the population of Wyoming but only 18 times as many electoral votes. The electoral college makes candidates seek majorities in as many corners of the country as possible.

Compare this to countries where they just count all the votes nationally, like Brazil. Brazil is the southeast (São Paulo, Rio, Minas Gerais) and the rest of the country just has to go along with them.

Or, in the U.S., consider that New York City metropolitan area has as many votes as the smallest ten states combined. Such a situation breeds an attitude of ownership, with the result that many in the cities regard the rest as their serfs (a phenomenon I live with in Oregon).

that argument never made any sense to me. my vote should count the same regardless of whether i live in wyoming or new york city. the states shouldn't be voting for the president; the citizens should. if the majority of the citizens support a particular candidate, it shouldn't matter what state they live in.

That way lies empire.
If you're going to do that, get rid of the Senate while you're at it, and finish the job of totally locking residents of small states out of relevance.

The Electoral College is part of the system of checks and balances, an attempt to try to keep the majority from treating minorities like crap. It doesn't work really well -- small states don't have enough weight -- but it has managed to help in making sure we get a president acceptable to most of the country (the one time it really didn't do that, we got a little fracas called the Civil War).
Without the College, we'd end up just like back under King George (the one two centuries past): the highly populated, wealthy areas would effectively own the rest, and start to act like it.

 

[Jaime]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

but i don't want my vote to count for more. i want my vote to count just as much as the vote of a new yorker or an alaskan.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some new state polls:

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +3 -- Public Policy Polling -- if this feels like deja vu, it's because the last 3 polls from the Tarheel State (PPP, Civitas, Rasmussen) have all had McCain hunkered down with a +3 lead. How's that for consistency? One caveat from this PPP poll is that Obama gets 33% of the white vote, better than Kerry who pulled in 27% in '04.

PENNSYLVANIA-- Obama +9 -- Strategic Vision -- Unlike NC, the Keystone state can sometimes be puzzling. Usually, Obama leads, but this poll shows a strong effort from him.

WASHINGTON-- Obama +11 -- Strategic Vision -- For S.V's second consecutive Evergreen state poll, Obama leads by 11.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

State polls for today:

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +11 -- Rasmussen -- Nice jump for McCain as the 2 previous polls from the Magnolia state both had him at +6.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +3 -- Public Policy Polling -- The Wolverine state was previously +11 for Obama, so a big decline for the Democrat under the weight of a massive GOP marketing spending spree there. Among whites, McCain took the lead from Obama by a 50-40% margin.

NEBRASKA -- McCain +19 -- Rasmussen -- Another 3 point increase for the Hero in the Cornhusker state. Not looking for certain that Obama will even win an electoral vote from a single district.

So, the moral of today's story is that McCain improved in all 3 states.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

3 new critical battleground state polls from Quinnipiac:

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +7 -- Obama falls 5 points frm +12 in June

FLORIDA -- Obama +2 -- Obama falls 2 points from +4 in June, although Obama had trailed in every Quinn. poll prior to JUne.

OHIO -- Obama +2 -- Obama falls 4 points from +6 in June.

Despite the overseas trip, McCain gains ground in all the big states.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

3 new critical battleground state polls from Quinnipiac:

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +7 -- Obama falls 5 points frm +12 in June

FLORIDA -- Obama +2 -- Obama falls 2 points from +4 in June, although Obama had trailed in every Quinn. poll prior to JUne.

OHIO -- Obama +2 -- Obama falls 4 points from +6 in June.

Despite the overseas trip, McCain gains ground in all the big states.

Thanks for the latest, Sammie13!

According to Wikipedia.org, if the election were today—and votes went in accordance to the latest polling as reported at that site—Sen. Obama would win with following. (See links, below.)…

• Obama keeps all of John Kerry's 2004 states. (This was the case in the last three party-flipping winners: in 1980, Ronald Reagan won all of Gerald Ford's 1976 states; in 1992, Bill Clinton kept all of Michael Dukakis's 1988 states; in 2000, George W. Bush prevailed in all of Bob Dole's 1996 states.) Total: 252
• Obama wins back over 2000 Dem/2004 GOP states Iowa and New Mexico. Total: 264
• Obama flips the three leading bellwethers: Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio. Total: 300
• Obama flips Florida. Total: 327
• Obama flips Colorado and Montana; they have voted identically since 1948! (Their last three Dem votes—1992 Bill Clinton, 1964 Lyndon Johnson, 1948 Harry Truman—won their elections.) Total: 339
• Obama flips neighboring Indiana and Virginia. Both have voted GOP in all of the last ten elections (1968-2004). Total: 363

Electoral votes, as of 07.31.2008: Obama, 363–McCain, 175.

Other sources have the race is tightening. But to be honest: In the long run, I predict Obama to win. But even if I were to predict McCain to win, I still wouldn't anticipate, or expect, the winning candidate to garner more than 5 percent of the U.S. popular vote over his opponent.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia....ly 2008/7-31-08/Georgia_Prez_Poll73119643.php

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I would be shocked if Obama pulls in 363 electoral votes myself. I'm estimating 290-310. Popular vote in the neighborhood of 3-5%. Alot of these states are indeed very close, but I'll go on the record now as saying I don't think he'll flip FL or MO. Many of the others are toss-ups, really depending on who makes the biggest mistake in the coming 100 days.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In the Senate races, Zogby is seeing Democratic trends of picking up 3 GOP states: New Mexico, Virginia, and Oregon. They see the GOP winning Louisiana, and right now Colorado is TIED.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1534

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the Dems will pick up more than 3 seats. I see Alaska as a real pick-up opportunity that just fell in the Dems hands. I'm not so sure they'll make it to the 60 magic votes, but it will be close.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A plethora of state polls rolling in with the latest tide:

KENTUCKY-- McCain +9 -- Rasmussen -- The beautiful Bluegrass state and home of our OP shows Obama picking up 7 points from their last poll.

IDAHO -- McCain +16 -- Research 2000 -- I didn't know enough people lived in Idaho to actual poll there, but okey-dokey, the Gem state shows the MacMan in a landslide, which means this is the last time we'll being seeing a poll from the potato state.

TEXAS-- McCain +9 -- Rasmussen -- The same exact margin spread from last month's Lone Star state poll

GEORGIA -- McCain +4 -- InsiderAdvantage -- This polling service is routinely showing the race as closer than others (they are well respected in GA, I must mention, for their accuracy). This time, McCain had a "surge" of +3 points compared to Insider's last poll despite the fact that Obama has outspent McCain $2 million to ZERO on advertising in the Peach state this summer.

MONTANA -- TIE -- Rasmussen -- Neither candidate is on the air, but it might be a good idea for one of them in the Treasure state. The last Big Sky Country poll from Ras had Obama at +5.

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +15 -- PPI -- Big lead for Obama in the Golden state.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think Obama bought air time in Montana, but they may not have run ads yet.

The poll that astounds me is Texas! McCain should have a huge lead there. Either a whole lot of people have moved to Austin, or suddenly Texas has gotten competitive.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

KENTUCKY-- McCain +9 -- Rasmussen -- The beautiful Bluegrass state and home of our OP shows Obama picking up 7 points from their last poll.

Kentucky has voted for the winner of the last ten elections (1968–2004). (Ditto Missouri and Ohio.) The last time it did not was with John F. Kennedy in 1960. Neighboring Tennessee has a voting record indentical to Ky.'s since 1956. I'm hoping new polling comes for Tenn. Even if both states stick with the GOP (and John McCain)!

 

[Jaime]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In the Senate races, Zogby is seeing Democratic trends of picking up 3 GOP states: New Mexico, Virginia, and Oregon. They see the GOP winning Louisiana, and right now Colorado is TIED.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1534

i don't suppose you've seen any polls that predict liddy dole losing her seat?

i can't tell you how much i'm looking forward to voting against her again...

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

i don't suppose you've seen any polls that predict liddy dole losing her seat?

i can't tell you how much i'm looking forward to voting against her again...

I found Liddy Dole very annoying the year she ran for prez; her hubby is more genuine, I think. At any rate, 4 different polls in July all have her winning consistently by 9-12 points.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kentucky has voted for the winner of the last ten elections (1968–2004). (Ditto Missouri and Ohio.) The last time it did not was with John F. Kennedy in 1960. Neighboring Tennessee has a voting record indentical to Ky.'s since 1956. I'm hoping new polling comes for Tenn. Even if both states stick with the GOP (and John McCain)!

With respect to my home state, I regret to pass along that we are part of a handful of states that are outside of the mainstream thought, politically. I don't think Obama has a prayer winning here. If Hillary were to campaign here she might make it competitive. The Clintons are enormously popular here.

And even though the Democratic party is making huge advances here, most of those Dems are Blue Dog Dems.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And as a part-time Tennessean, and former full-time, I share Snapcat's sentiment. The Clintons are popular in the Volunteer state as well. Bill could carry it, even though native son Al Gore could not. There were TN state polls in May showing Hillary winning or tied with McCain head-to-head. Still, I think TN (and KY?) are ahead of SC, GA, and AL in the political spectrum. Both states have more white moderates as opposed to white conservatives in the Deeper south.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Your Friday state poll fix satisfied right here:

ALASKA-- McCain +6 -- Rasmussen -- Remarkable how consistent the Last Frontier has been over 3 polls in the last six weeks. McCain's lead has been stable despite Ted Stevens indictment.

KENTUCKY -- McCain +21 -- Research 2000 -- What a difference a day makes and a different polling service. Yesterday, McCain was +9 in the Bluegrass state by Rasmussen...and now +21. Who kept posting that Rasmussen was pro-Republican and biased....well, R2000 is off the right chain if that silly little theory was accurate.

NORTH CAROLINA-- McCain +4 -- Research 2000 -- Also remarkable as that every Tarheel state poll is a carbon copy of the one before it. The #'s hardly budge in NC.

MISSOURI -- McCain +5 -- SurveyUSA -- Only one point of this pollster's previous effort. So, now to tunnel down in the Show Me state.
***Independents broke 5:3 for McCain; 87% of Repubs support McCain; 83% of Dems support Obama.
***Men in Missouri went for McCain +12; women preferred Obama +3 for a 15 point gender gap.
***Regional breakdown in MO is important...most of the blacks live in the counties that comprise St Louis and Kansas City, so....Southeastern Missouri--McCain +28; Southwestern MO-- McCain +23; Northern MO-- McCain +21; Kansas City-- TIE; St Louis-- Obama +13. These are the numbers that makes me certain in my Obama won't win MO judgement made earlier...MO white voters, esp in the central and south region of the state, mimic the southern US and there aren't quite enough black voters to overcome that.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not convinced, Sammie13, about Missouri.

Here are two articles worth reading.…


http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/07/battle_for_the_4.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...8/07/30/AR2008073002929.html?nav=rss_politics

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not convinced, Sammie13, about Missouri.

Here are two articles worth reading.…


http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/07/battle_for_the_4.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...8/07/30/AR2008073002929.html?nav=rss_politics

I'm not convinced from those links that Obama will win Missouri. That said, the Post article touches on something I've been harping about in Ga. Dems need to work rural areas...it's an old time Dem constituency that is basically independent and swinging. They like attention and Dems have ignored them while they have garnered attention from the GOP. And I've said Obama needs to hit 40% of the white vote in alot of these type states, too. Yet, Dems like to go to the big cities...lots of people, easy media reach, close to the airports, etc. If Obama wants to reach rural voters, he needs to be seen visiting farms, talking immigration and agribusiness, going to military bases in rural areas and just relating to regular people, so I do like the effort. After all, past elections have shown that Dems do great in big urban centers, to move past that and win, they've got to expand. Kerry and Gore preferred to campaign in Orlando, Philly, Cincy, St Louis, etc. by-passing those communities miles off the interstate So, Obama quit hanging out in big cities and college towns, the media will still find you out in the fields pushing a plow....I promise.