15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

3 Issues from the Pollmeister today:


Issue #1: A new Zogby poll shows that 55% of Americans and 69% of Independents want Bob Barr included in the debates this fall. Also, 45% want Ralphy Nader to participate with 59% of Indies feeling likewise. What say you?


Issue #2: A new Rasmussen poll from the Pinetree state of Maine says that Obama has a 14 point lead. Okay, this isn't really an issue, but it worked in my narrative.


Issue #3: What up with Colorado and Syntax? First, the Broncos can't win a playoff game without Elways, then the CU athletic dept is ripe with corruption and scandal, then we get this quagmire of polling data. The Rocky Mtn News has a new poll that says McCain is up by 3 points. MacMan is running away with indies and also leads CO polls from Rasmussen and Quinnipiac. However, polls from Franklin and PPP have Obama up. The PPP poll is the only one of the 5 NOT within the margin of error. At any rate, 3/5 polls point to the MacMan. So, is Colorful Colorado slip-sliding away from the Dems?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Please don't underestimate Jeb Bush's and Katherine Harris's, uh, "assistance" in guaranteeing DUHbya's "win."

And as far as 2004 goes...Ohio ring a bell?

Speaking of Ohio, new poll today....


OHIO -- TIE -- Public Policy Polling -- So, the Buckeye State is a draw with McCain continuing to creep up in the polls here. At one point, Obama had put a little seperation between them, but that has now evaporated.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

3 Issues from the Pollmeister today:


Issue #3: What up with Colorado and Syntax? First, the Broncos can't win a playoff game without Elways, then the CU athletic dept is ripe with corruption and scandal, then we get this quagmire of polling data. The Rocky Mtn News has a new poll that says McCain is up by 3 points. MacMan is running away with indies and also leads CO polls from Rasmussen and Quinnipiac. However, polls from Franklin and PPP have Obama up. The PPP poll is the only one of the 5 NOT within the margin of error. At any rate, 3/5 polls point to the MacMan. So, is Colorful Colorado slip-sliding away from the Dems?

Pollmeister Your servant from CO (the Centennial State) reports:

1) The Broncos have never been the same since Elway retired.

2) The athletic department of CU is not the only section of the U that is ripe with corruption and scandal. The political election of Bruce Benson as the University President confirms the dominance of corruption and scandal and will make sure that it will continue.

3) Some current Polls in CO show McCain up by a small percentage. McCain has been saturating the airwaves with the "Obama is a celebrity Paris Hilton" and "unfit to lead" ads and they have had the expected effect. Obama's responses have been pretty tepid so far. Bush carried the state by 5% in 2004. McCain, not Obama, is rightly worried that this reliable state is "slip-sliding away"

4) Obama is coming back this week and the polls in CO are going to change. I'm looking forward to your analysis, Sammie I mean Pollmeister

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Shouldn't the Poll Miser have a theme song like the Snow Miser and the Heat Miser (ah...the Heat Miser...I know him all too well)

Pollmeister Your servant from CO (the Centennial State) reports:

You know, I really should have field correspondents in all 50 states...you've planted the seed, Syntax. I have grown so tired of writing the Centennial State...Colorful Colorado sounds so much better...I'm thinking the CO Dept of Tourism would agree. Have your peeps work on changing your state nickname (you can even have the Snow Miser as your spokesperson) .

This coming from a guy who's state is named after a fruit of which we're not even the #1 producer.

1) The Broncos have never been the same since Elway retired.

Yeah, true. But, Cutler is hot (and he plays football real good, too)!!! A friend and I are efforting to go see the Falcons/Broncos game in November. I love the Broncs...weird, huh?

2) The athletic department of CU is not the only section of the U that is ripe with corruption and scandal. The political election of Bruce Benson as the University President confirms the dominance of corruption and scandal and will make sure that it will continue.

Oct 2, 2010, my avator (currently ranked #1 in the land) is headed to Boulder to clean it up, so no worries my friend...hope is on the way....just keep that big ol' ugly oxen away from him....Uga doesn't like being trampled....but he will bring some sorely needed integrity to CU campus.

3) Some current Polls in CO show McCain up by a small percentage. McCain has been saturating the airwaves with the "Obama is a celebrity Paris Hilton" and "unfit to lead" ads and they have had the expected effect. Obama's responses have been pretty tepid so far. Bush carried the state by 5% in 2004. McCain, not Obama, is rightly worried that this reliable state is "slip-sliding away"

I haven't seen any MacMan ads here, but we're getting Obama around the clock. However, each time an Obama ad airs in the Peach state, I think he drops another 1/2 point in the polls. He needs MacMan's ad team pronto.

It's so good to have you back, Syntax.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Shouldn't the Poll Miser have a theme song like the Snow Miser and the Heat Miser (ah...the Heat Miser...I know him all too well)

LOOOOOVE!

Childhood memories *tear*

And sorry Sammie I don't care I'm not on topic it's too good to miss.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

LOOOOOVE!

Childhood memories *tear*

And sorry Sammie I don't care I'm not on topic it's too good to miss.

That's quite alright...indeed, one of my favorite holiday specials.


And now, more new polls:

ILLINOIS -- Obama +15-- Rasmussen -- Like we needed a Prairie state poll?

TENNESSEE -- McCain +15 -- Ayres -- I can already hear McCain singing Rocky Top from the beautiful foothills of the Volunteer State.

NEW YORK -- Obama +8 -- Siena -- The Empire state is yet another locale where Obama is slipping...the same poll in July had him up by 13 pts.

GEORGIA -- McCain +7 -- Rasmussen -- A tad of movement toward Obama since their last poll....McCain leads by 9 with leaners included. Breaking it down a little further in the Peach state finds Obama & McCain tied among women voters, but McCain leads by 20 among men. McCain has a 13 point lead among independent, unaffiliated voters. The more suprising poll has Repub incumbent Sen Saxby Shameless leading state Sen Jim Martin by only 6 points. Chambless was considered un-touchable.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

No poll to report but this headline from a local CO website:

McCain just lost Colorado

http://www.coloradopols.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=13787D010C268A3E4DAA97E976DBACAB?diaryId=7052

Apparently the Senator from AZ wants to divert water from the CO river to the water-starved state of AZ:

"I don't think there's any doubt the major, major issue is water and can be as important as oil. So the compact that is in effect, obviously, needs to be renegotiated over time amongst the interested parties," McCain told The Pueblo Chieftain. "I think that there's a movement amongst the governors to try, if not, quote, renegotiate, certainly adjust to the new realities of high growth, of greater demands on a scarcer resource."

Such statements don't sit well with CO politicians, including oily Republican Senatorial candidate Rep. Bob Schaffer:

"Over my cold, dead, political carcass," Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer said...


That's right, even Bob "Referendum A" Schaffer is posturing on this one. And that's the thing--no one in Colorado could possibly support this and expect to remain in elected office. Colorado's water rights should be "revisited" because of the "reality" of Arizona and California sprawl? Oh my god. Lethal.

Now, like most urban Cowtownites, the closest I've come to a farm in CO is when I go to Whole Foods to buy my arugula:

“Anybody gone into Whole Foods lately and see what they charge for arugula?” the senator [Obama] said. “I mean, they’re charging a lot of money for this stuff.”

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/07/27/obamas-down-on-the-farm/

but farmers in rural CO who usually vote Republican might take issue with the "Maverick's" determination to steal their water and poll accordingly.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Colorful Colorado sounds so much better...I'm thinking the CO Dept of Tourism would agree. Have your peeps work on changing your state nickname (you can even have the Snow Miser as your spokesperson) .

Sammie How about Bluetiful Colorado? because in November 2008, I predict CO will change a beautiful shade of BLUE

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Today's polls:

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +6 -- Civitas -- The Consistency State is back to being the Tarheel State since McCain's magic # of 4 has changed to 6. The lack of poll movement in GA and NC despite Obama's aggressive ad campaigns can mostly be contributed to the fact that there just aren't many independents in the South. Most southerners are white evangelicals (Repubs) or blacks (Dems), so it's hard to shift the car out of neutral.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- SurveyUSA -- More troubling news for Obama as the North Star State where he recently had a double digit lead continues to dwindle to a dead heat. Perhaps Pawlenty could help change this loyal blue state red.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- Susquehanna -- Obama continues to stay above the margin of error in the Keystone state.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few more state polls:

LOUISIANA -- McCain +18 -- Rasmussen -- In the Pelican State, which twice elected Bill Clinton, and has a large black population, Sen Obama finds himself way behind.

FLORIDA -- McCain +2 -- Rasmussen -- In their last Sunshine State poll, Obama was up by 2, so a 4 pt slide for the Democrat.

INDIANA -- McCain +6 -- Survey USA -- Quite a surge for McCain in Obama's neighboring state. In their previous Hoosier State poll, Obama lead by 1, so here he finds himself with a 7 point dip..

 

[bear249]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's the thing I despise about polls and the voting process altogether.

The polls don't really matter until the vote is counted....period. How the polls are taken are by people randomly selecting 200 people and depending on the area they do this poll, the candidate has the upper hand.

For instance, if they took the poll in my small town in Indiana, McCain would win hands down because of my country's racist history.

Indiana has not gone Blue since Kennedy was elected in office. It's really shameful for me considering I've grown up with ignorant individuals that dislike a man because of his last name, middle name, or race.

I hope Indiana goes blue because it would actually mean my vote counts...since you know, your vote is meaningless if the other party wins your state.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

One thing that bothers me about all the polls is that there are people who will see someone's poll numbers dropping, and figure there must actually be something wrong with that candidate, and so change their support.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the shift in the polls that will really matter is what happens in September after the conventions. Attentions wane in the summertime, and it's hard to get a good picture of the electorate when people aren't paying attention.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Besides the fact that the National Polls are now essentially TIED (even CNN's Poll of Polls has Obama with a less than 1% lead), there are lots of new state polls and there is a continuing, developing story of McCain's comeback. He looked out of it early on and very slowly since July 1, his lead has vanished. Here are the latest:

IOWA -- Obama +7 -- Univ of IA -- The Hawkeye Institute performed this Hawkeye poll which shows a nice lead for Obama in a state he could flip from '04.

MARYLAND -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen -- The Old Line State has the first poll that I've seen. McCain should indeed "Fear the Turtle" or at least the Democrat because he has a nice lead in this leftish state.

MISSOURI -- McCain +10 -- Public Policy Polling -- The Show Me State, as I have all along declared, is likely no longer in reach for Obama. McCain gets a 7 point jump from PPP's previous July MO poll.

ARIZONA -- McCain +10 -- ASU -- The Sun Devil Institute performed this Copper State poll and their homeboy holds the lead.

OHIO -- McCain +5 -- Rasmussen -- Basically unchanged from their last Buckeye state poll. What may be disconcerting to Obama is that McCain leads in favorability 62-47%. Obama's "unfaves" have been on the rise here of late.

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +2 -- InsiderAdvantage -- Yesterday, Civitas' poll had McCain +6 while most all other Tarheel State polls have the margin at +4.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- TIE -- Rasmussen -- Previously, Obama was up 4 in this Granite State poll, and now MacMan has caught up in the state that twice in his life has revitalized his campaign.

McCain has to feel really good about the numbers in Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire. MO and OH are traditionally states that go with the winners. I guess Obama can feel proud of Iowa, although it only went GOP in 2004 -- otherwise, a traditional Democratic state.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Besides the fact that the National Polls are now essentially TIED (even CNN's Poll of Polls has Obama with a less than 1% lead), there are lots of new state polls and there is a continuing, developing story of McCain's comeback. He looked out of it early on and very slowly since July 1, his lead has vanished. Here are the latest:

IOWA -- Obama +7 -- Univ of IA -- The Hawkeye Institute performed this Hawkeye poll which shows a nice lead for Obama in a state he could flip from '04.

MARYLAND -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen -- The Old Line State has the first poll that I've seen. McCain should indeed "Fear the Turtle" or at least the Democrat because he has a nice lead in this leftish state.

MISSOURI -- McCain +10 -- Public Policy Polling -- The Show Me State, as I have all along declared, is likely no longer in reach for Obama. McCain gets a 7 point jump from PPP's previous July MO poll.

ARIZONA -- McCain +10 -- ASU -- The Sun Devil Institute performed this Copper State poll and their homeboy holds the lead.

OHIO -- McCain +5 -- Rasmussen -- Basically unchanged from their last Buckeye state poll. What may be disconcerting to Obama is that McCain leads in favorability 62-47%. Obama's "unfaves" have been on the rise here of late.

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +2 -- InsiderAdvantage -- Yesterday, Civitas' poll had McCain +6 while most all other Tarheel State polls have the margin at +4.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- TIE -- Rasmussen -- Previously, Obama was up 4 in this Granite State poll, and now MacMan has caught up in the state that twice in his life has revitalized his campaign.

McCain has to feel really good about the numbers in Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire. MO and OH are traditionally states that go with the winners. I guess Obama can feel proud of Iowa, although it only went GOP in 2004 -- otherwise, a traditional Democratic state.

This is disconcerting. Quite a slip-and-slide we're seeing.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ILLINOIS -- Obama +15-- Rasmussen -- Like we needed a Prairie state poll?

TENNESSEE -- McCain +15 -- Ayres -- I can already hear McCain singing Rocky Top from the beautiful foothills of the Volunteer State.

NEW YORK -- Obama +8 -- Siena -- The Empire state is yet another locale where Obama is slipping...the same poll in July had him up by 13 pts.

GEORGIA -- McCain +7 -- Rasmussen -- A tad of movement toward Obama since their last poll....McCain leads by 9 with leaners included. Breaking it down a little further in the Peach state finds Obama & McCain tied among women voters, but McCain leads by 20 among men. McCain has a 13 point lead among independent, unaffiliated voters. The more suprising poll has Repub incumbent Sen Saxby Shameless leading state Sen Jim Martin by only 6 points. Chambless was considered un-touchable.

Sammie, I am very impressed by your knowledge of state nicknames...quite remarkable.

Oh you're polling updates are good too...

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

LOL, that is so right. Momentum seems to be everything for some people. But are those people really likely to vote?

Interesting question.
But I've given up trying to figure who's likely to vote and who isn't: here in Oregon, we have mail-in ballots, so I don't understand why anyone would fail to vote... but many still don't bother.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, I am very impressed by your knowledge of state nicknames...quite remarkable.

Oh you're polling updates are good too...

Thank you Mr. Wright!

And some new polls just for you....

PENNSYLVANIA-- Obama +3 -- Rasmussen -- The Keystone State is certainly a key to any presidnetial victory, and Obama now holds a narrower lead here...was up +6 in previous Ras. poll

NEVADA -- Obama +1 -- Reno Gazette -- The Sagebrush State continues to vascillate...most have McCain up...either way, it's close enough here to give pause to even the most ambitious gamblers.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +10 -- MN Public Radio -- A little more generous to Obama than some recent polls from the Land of 10,000 Lakes (Give or Take a Couple Thousand Lakes).

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Once the election is over, it'll be interesting to see how accurate these polls were in the way of technology; I wonder how much has been conducted with cellphone-only users.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the shift in the polls that will really matter is what happens in September after the conventions. Attentions wane in the summertime, and it's hard to get a good picture of the electorate when people aren't paying attention.

The shift matters. And it's time for Obama to start shifting himself and indicting McCain for the asskissing/Bush knockoff/elitist asshole that he is. Time to put McCain and his repulsive policies consistently on the defense. Front and center. Every goddamn day. All the way to Election Day.

If anyone voting for Obama doesn't believe me (and I am voting for him), consider how Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992; his campaign management (led by James Carville) had the Bush/Dan Quayle strategy figured out. They attacked Bush Sr. Consistently. Smartly. Successfully.

Obama has McCain's number; the niceties of Campaigning With Honor aren't going to translate into winning Election 2008. Not with American voters who voted for George W. Bush—twice! Enough of McCain the War Hero and his so-called patriotism. He's a sellout guilty of the shit for he accuses Obama—willing to do and say anything to be president. Fuck him. And fuck him badly. Destroy Phony Maverick's bid for the White House.