15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Coolblue, it sounds like you're having some political anger management issues today. It'll be alright! Hey, I don't think most of these pollsters use the cell phone technology. That is a drawback, and I'm not sure if they adjust the cell population into the equation, but I think that that most of them do.

More new polls:

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Land of Enchantment continues to skew toward Obama....McCain was here yesterday.

FLORIDA -- McCain +1 -- ARG -- When Fay's not wreaking havoc in this Tropical Storm Drenched state, the pollsters are. McCain drops one point from their previous poll.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +1 -- ARG -- My, how things have tightened in the Granite state...Ras and ARG are both calling it essentially a tie.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Coolblue, it sounds like you're having some political anger management issues today. It'll be alright! Hey, I don't think most of these pollsters use the cell phone technology. That is a drawback, and I'm not sure if they adjust the cell population into the equation, but I think that that most of them do.

More new polls:

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Land of Enchantment continues to skew toward Obama....McCain was here yesterday.

FLORIDA -- McCain +1 -- ARG -- When Fay's not wreaking havoc in this Tropical Storm Drenched state, the pollsters are. McCain drops one point from their previous poll.

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +1 -- ARG -- My, how things have tightened in the Granite state...Ras and ARG are both calling it essentially a tie.

You never know people, Sammie13. But I stand by what I've written.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The Obama campaign has announced that they're suspending all advertising expenditures until further notice in SEVEN RED states. Does this mean they're throwing in the towel on the 50 state strategy?

Five of the red states were probably not going blue anyway.... Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota. Two states are considered key battlegrounds-- Florida and Virginia.

I can't imagine that he will not soon ramp up ads again in VA and FL. Plus, he was in NC just a few days ago and will be in Montana in a few days.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If anyone voting for Obama doesn't believe me (and I am voting for him), consider how Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992; his campaign management (led by James Carville) had the Bush/Dan Quayle strategy figured out. They attacked Bush Sr. Consistently. Smartly. Successfully.

I agree, Cool. The Obama folks really need to focus and hammer away on just a few messages. The Kitchen Table stuff always works well for Dems.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

PENNSYLVANIA-- Obama +3 -- Rasmussen -- The Keystone State is certainly a key to any presidnetial victory, and Obama now holds a narrower lead here...was up +6 in previous Ras. poll

NEVADA -- Obama +1 -- Reno Gazette -- The Sagebrush State continues to vascillate...most have McCain up...either way, it's close enough here to give pause to even the most ambitious gamblers.

MINNESOTA -- Obama +10 -- MN Public Radio -- A little more generous to Obama than some recent polls from the Land of 10,000 Lakes (Give or Take a Couple Thousand Lakes).

Continuing to impress...and this is better news.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Continuing to impress...and this is better news.

You're too kind, Mr Wright.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New pre-convention state polls....


CALIFORNIA -- Obama +13 -- Rasmussen -- A cool BLUE state that looks to stay that way...Golden state stands firm.

SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +13 -- Research 2000 -- The Palmetto State finds McCain with some seperation.

TENNESSEE -- McCain +25 -- Rasmussen -- The Volunteer State from the Memphis Delta to the Appalachians is firmly behind the MacMan.

KANSAS -- McCain +23 -- SurveyUSA -- Obama's home, The Sunflower State, is sunny for Obama's opposition.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +7 -- Detroit Free Press -- Obama has staked out a strong lead in the critical Great Lake State, but look for Wolverine Country to be Ground Zero for '08.

INDIANA -- McCain +6 -- Rasmussen -- Second poll this week, the earlier from SurveyUSA, that shows McCain at +6 in the Hoosier State. Most previous polls had this state in a deadlock, so McCain is pulling ahead. Significant is the favorability ratings. In Indiana, McCain leads that key category, 65-52%.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Zogby always has some of the wackier polls since they've become more internet and high tech savy. Obama supporters generally find Zogby polls more in alignment with what they WANT to read. For the first time, nationally, Zogby does find that Obama is falling short of the needed 270 electoral votes. Most previous months, he made this magic number easily. Here are their key battleground states:

FLORIDA -- McCain +3
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +3
PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +9
VIRGINIA -- Obama +2
NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +8
OHIO -- Obama +5

The only one that seems out of synch with other polls is North Carolina. Zogby has consistently had Obama's results far outpacing his performance in other polls.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The Obama campaign has announced that they're suspending all advertising expenditures until further notice in SEVEN RED states. Does this mean they're throwing in the towel on the 50 state strategy?

Five of the red states were probably not going blue anyway.... Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota. Two states are considered key battlegrounds-- Florida and Virginia.

I can't imagine that he will not soon ramp up ads again in VA and FL. Plus, he was in NC just a few days ago and will be in Montana in a few days.

I thought he had plenty of money -- what's the deal? Especially in states that are key?

Thinking of Indiana: my buddy who lives in southern Indiana says no one he knows plans to vote for "that fucking nigger". Party affiliation has vanished in the face of racial fear/hate.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Thinking of Indiana: my buddy who lives in southern Indiana says no one he knows plans to vote for "that fucking nigger". Party affiliation has vanished in the face of racial fear/hate.

I think that race is the one element missing from Sammie's "Why Hillocrats aren't voting for Obama" theory. (which I think is otherwise persuasive).

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought he had plenty of money -- what's the deal? Especially in states that are key?

Maybe it's just a change of focus.

Obama’s decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows.
Aides to Obama told FOX News that the changes are related to the convention next week. They wouldn’t discuss the specifics of their ad strategy, but the Obama campaign insists that it has not pulled out of those states permanently, calling this a temporary suspension.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/22/obama-stops-advertising-in-red-battleground-states/

Perhaps, they're wanting to make sure that funds aren't wasted. They may need them elsewhere since the race has tightened.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Thinking of Indiana: my buddy who lives in southern Indiana says no one he knows plans to vote for "that fucking nigger". Party affiliation has vanished in the face of racial fear/hate.

I grew up in rural Mississippi, and vividly remember segregation.

I can say with absolutely no hesitation that Southern Indiana is one of the most intolerant places I've ever seen. In many ways Mississippi is light years ahead of Southern Indiana with respect to race relations.

I now just live a scant 50 miles from Southern Indiana. Trust me when I say I cross the Ohio River in that direction very, very rarely!

So, Kuli, my personal experience is that your friend is absolutely correct.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I grew up in rural Mississippi, and vividly remember segregation.

I can say with absolutely no hesitation that Southern Indiana is one of the most intolerant places I've ever seen. In many ways Mississippi is light years ahead of Southern Indiana with respect to race relations.

I now just live a scant 50 miles from Southern Indiana. Trust me when I say I cross the Ohio River in that direction very, very rarely!

So, Kuli, my personal experience is that your friend is absolutely correct.

I'm sad to admit, as a native Hoosier, racial intolerance isn't exclusive to the southern half of Indiana. My own beloved (Democrat, Logansport, IN) grandpa was the worst bigot I've ever known! Peru, IN is the birthplace of the KKK, and MANY KKK rallies and lynchings occurred in the north half. . . including Huntington, IN, which you may recall is the hometown of former VP, J. Danforth Quayle. I remember a KKK rally in downtown Fort Wayne less than a dozen years ago! The town in which I grew up (Auburn, IN) still boasted being "all-white" as recently as 1985!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You are correct about the KKK activity in Indiana. A while back they came down to London, Kentucky, for a KKK rally. Each year they erect a cross at Christmas at Fountain Square in Cincinnati.

That shit would never fly in Mississippi these days. They would just shoot them and be done with it.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You are correct about the KKK activity in Indiana. A while back they came down to London, Kentucky, for a KKK rally. Each year they erect a cross at Christmas at Fountain Square in Cincinnati.

That shit would never fly in Mississippi these days. They would just shoot them and be done with it.

Who would shoot whom in Mississippi?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So funny that the stereotypes are always in the South. But, the stories you see on the news, etc, are always outside of the South. My theory is that we LIVE race relations everyday, and we're just more accustomed to the sensitivities involved. I live in a redneck area, yet haven't seen the KKK since like 1970.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Who would shoot whom in Mississippi?

Yep!

I think he means the KKK activity wouldn't be tolerated. . .

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yep!

I think he means the KKK activity wouldn't be tolerated. . .

That's exactly what I meant.

If the KKK tried to march through Yazoo City the locals would just start shooting anyone with a hood on.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You are correct about the KKK activity in Indiana. A while back they came down to London, Kentucky, for a KKK rally. Each year they erect a cross at Christmas at Fountain Square in Cincinnati.

That shit would never fly in Mississippi these days. They would just shoot them and be done with it.

We still have KKK here, though they don't have parades. They do, however, arrange "accidents" for any blacks who move into south county.

My grandmother was one who stood up to them a couple generations back, and rallied other stubborn Swiss to do the same -- the Swiss don't give a shit what color you are so long as you work hard.

I don't know that I'd shoot any if they did parade -- though the thought of a flamethrower to deprive them of their sheets strikes me as attractive.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, I am looking forward to the last polls taken before and the first polls taken after Obama's veep nomination.

I think there is real potential for a significant bounce for Obama. Had he been 10 points up in the polls, there may not have been a bigger bounce. But from the recent polling data being what it is, the press is going to ignite if he jumps back to his June polling numbers. So the recent slide in the polls may actually work out to be a good thing.