15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some new quick polls.

COLORADO -- McCain +2 -- Tarrance Group
WASHINGTON -- Obama +4 -- Survey USA -- a big decline for Obama in the Evergreen state.

Then, some new polls from Rasmussen:

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +2 -- prevously was +5 in this poll
OHIO -- McCain +7 -- previously McCain was +4.
COLORADO -- Obama +3 -- previously McCain was up +2, so a 5 point swing. Gotta think the Dem convention in this state helped deny McCain some bounce.
VIRGINIA -- McCain +2 -- previously Obama lead by 1.
FLORIDA -- TIE -- previously McCain lead by 3.

Hopefully, you caught my previous post on Michigan with Obama at +2.

So, a mixed bag overall. The sky is not falling!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here are some interesting stats from the Rasmussen Report on the 5 states above:

A number of themes emerge from the data that are consistent across all five states:
· McCain is trusted more than Obama in all five states.
· In all five states, McCain is viewed more favorably than Obama.
· Also, in all five states, Sarah Palin draws higher “Very Favorable” ratings than any other candidate.
· In all states except Colorado, McCain enjoys a bigger margin among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats. In Colorado, they are even.
· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.
· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is higher in every state than the number saying the same about McCain. This is consistent with national polling data showing that McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...sen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm really not optimistic about Obama capturing Ohio. I still think Virginia is an easier win for him. And I agree that Michigan is going to be competitive.

So far, the most competitive state is North Dakota. And McCain is virtually writing that state off and Obama will have 12 offices.

It's Obama's election to lose, but we are talking about Democrats .....

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some new quick polls.

WASHINGTON -- Obama +4 -- Survey USA -- a big decline for Obama in the Evergreen state.

Wow.
Ouch.
I remember it was Obama +15 right after he clinched the nomination!

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm really not optimistic about Obama capturing Ohio. I still think Virginia is an easier win for him. And I agree that Michigan is going to be competitive.

So far, the most competitive state is North Dakota. And McCain is virtually writing that state off and Obama will have 12 offices.

It's Obama's election to lose, but we are talking about Democrats .....

Very true, and I agree with you that Ohio is a lost cause. Those people will never learn, and it has to frustrate the Democratic populace of the state, knowing that they are constantly a Battleground State that almost always plays a hand in determining the fate of the entire country.

I would aggressively go after Virginia and Colorado ... and have Biden appear regularly in Pennsylvania and Michigan to ensure those states do not slip out of the DNC's grasp.

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Very true, and I agree with you that Ohio is a lost cause. Those people will never learn, and it has to frustrate the Democratic populace of the state, knowing that they are constantly a Battleground State that almost always plays a hand in determining the fate of the entire country.

Don't give up hope - RealClear's "No Toss-Up" scenario still shows a slim Obama lead, even with Ohio in the red column:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Let's just pray that Obama hangs onto PA or this will get real scary real quick...

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

All these recent scenarios are based on the assumption (utterly unmentioned) that New Hampshire stays blue. I think neglecting New Hampshire would be a huge mistake.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Let's just pray that Obama hangs onto PA or this will get real scary real quick...

Oh, I agree. If Pennsylvania starts to slide McCain's way, then we are looking at an entirely different dynamic in the presidential campaign, one that does not favor an Obama win.

All these recent scenarios are based on the assumption (utterly unmentioned) that New Hampshire stays blue. I think neglecting New Hampshire would be a huge mistake.

I won't say that I'm discounting New Hampshire staying blue as much as I'm counting on states such as Montana and North Dakota to fill in any such gap that would make.

And lest we forget, McCain only enjoys a 3 point lead in North Carolina over at Pollster.

There is way more fruit on the tree for Obama to pick from. McCain's path the the White House is far more tenuous.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oh, I agree. If Pennsylvania starts to slide McCain's way, then we are looking at an entirely different dynamic in the presidential campaign, one that does not favor an Obama win.



I won't say that I'm discounting New Hampshire staying blue as much as I'm counting on states such as Montana and North Dakota to fill in any such gap that would make.

And lest we forget, McCain only enjoys a 3 point lead in North Carolina over at Pollster.

There is way more fruit on the tree for Obama to pick from. McCain's path the the White House is far more tenuous.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, the only place I see Obama having a chance at making it up is in Virginia. If he can't, then Obama will lose the race.

Edit: Actually, I just saw there was a FOX News poll conducted this Sunday in Florida, that has McCain and Obama absolutely tied. If we keep sending Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden down there, maybe there is a chance at this state after all, to make up for Ohio.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

HERE are some interesting facts about North Dakota, politically speaking....

For instance ....

###snip###
See (for those of you not from here), North Dakota is the only state in the U.S. that does not have any form of voter registration. Any citizen who shows up with a driver's license or other statutorily acceptable proof of residency is allowed to vote.
###snip###

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

HERE are some interesting facts about North Dakota, politically speaking....

For instance ....

And that's wrong on all fronts. I think Lou Dobbs has attacked that state more than once on this very issue.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It occurs to me that at this point Obama should make some Cabinet picks who are well known and well-liked in different parts of the country, and get them out there campaigning for him. Give Bill Richardson the Department of the Interior, and put him to work in western states; put Edwards in somewhere, like Education, and get him out there hitting audiences he appeals to; get General Clark in as well....

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

1) Ohio is not a lost cause. You don't take a polling from Rasmussen - the only one out there who has polled McCain winning the state every time (while others certainly did not show that) - and figure it's out of reach for Obama and the Democrats

2) This is a post-Republican National Convention bounce; Obama had his post-Democratic National Convention bounce as well

 

[NineOfClubs]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You guys are starting to sound like the Nazi military.

If only we can stop the Allies in Italy.

Maybe the Eastern Front will hold.

The English will never chance an invasion of Normandy.

Yada, yada....

 

[Spensed]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Better than sounding like a French hooker in Paris before the German invasion. LOL.

 

[Spensed]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ I think the French had already surrendered in June. LOL.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It occurs to me that at this point Obama should make some Cabinet picks who are well known and well-liked in different parts of the country, and get them out there campaigning for him. Give Bill Richardson the Department of the Interior, and put him to work in western states; put Edwards in somewhere, like Education, and get him out there hitting audiences he appeals to; get General Clark in as well....

I couldn't agree more, although I don't know that throwing John Edwards in the mix will help anything.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I have zero expectations of Obama winning in North Dakota and Montana...I don't think he was ever going to win there, and now with Mrs. Gun Loving Palin...it's over. North Carolina ain't happenin' either.

Agree with Coolblue that Ohio is still very much a live one...at least until other Buckeye polls come in.

Virginia -- I'm skeptical, but it's fair game.

The Sammie Super Six remain: Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

I've considered making it the Sammie Super Seven by adding Florida. Still, my gut and brain say that FL flirts with the Dems every four years, and then somehow goes red. Palin is not a great 'sell' in FL, though, and Biden could help.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I have zero expectations of Obama winning in North Dakota and Montana...I don't think he was ever going to win there, and now with Mrs. Gun Loving Palin...it's over. North Carolina ain't happenin' either.

Agree with Coolblue that Ohio is still very much a live one...at least until other Buckeye polls come in.

Virginia -- I'm skeptical, but it's fair game.

The Sammie Super Six remain: Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

I've considered making it the Sammie Super Seven by adding Florida. Still, my gut and brain say that FL flirts with the Dems every four years, and then somehow goes red. Palin is not a great 'sell' in FL, though, and Biden could help.

Well, the latest poll in Florida is encouraging. Let's wait for the next one, and if the Tie continues, or if we see Hillary making strides in Florida, then we can put it in the Up for Grabs column.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think Obama could tip a couple of those close states by making a simple pledge to sign no new gun-control legislation. Just that could pull several millions votes his way across the country, and in some states it's a big issue to voters -- witness the shall-issue concealed carry laws, and now the no-retreat and "Castle Doctrine" laws that states are passing due to voter support.

And if he'd make that pledge, there are a couple of Democrats on the NRA Board who just might do some work for him -- countering the love affair with Palin.