15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Maine is not going to be in play for McCain. Maine is solid Obama at the moment. McCain can never win over the New England states. Pennsylvania was solid Obama a few months ago, then it trended to "Leaning Obama" a month ago, now it's a toss up with Obama and McCain just 2 points from each other. I think Obama is going to lead Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 points by election day. Biden is really doing well with working class voters and women voters in the toss-up states.

Look at West Virginia. It was solid McCain in the start of the election, it trended to a "Leaning McCain" recently, now it's becoming a toss-up state with McCain only leading by 3 or 4 points ahead of Obama. If Obama can keep the Kerry states (which includes PA) and win CO, NV, NM, VA, OH, and MI, the election is over for McCain.

When Kuli asked this:

???

What's going on in Maine???

I think he was referring to this:

MAINE -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Oops... Obama drops from a +13 lead in Ras. previous poll. Color The Pinetree State a light shade of blue.

The 4 points seem in conflict with the assertion that "Maine is solid Obama." Perhaps it's just an outlier. Time will tell.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Yes, I was referring to the drop from +13 to +4, both Rasmussen polls.

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Yes, I was referring to the drop from +13 to +4, both Rasmussen polls.

Oh. I see your question now. I was thinking that Obama was doing pretty well in Maine. The presidential election is coming close and the polls are going to be swinging like crazy before the presidential debates. If Obama persuades America that McCain and Bush are totally alike and brings up the gaffes that McCain made about the economy during the Stock Market crisis a few days ago, state poll numbers state-by-state for Obama will rise dramatically. He has to grab those undecided voters to win this election against McCain.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

PARTIES PICKING UP FROM THEIR LAST 'LOSER'


An interesting fact I'd like to share:

Republican Party-vs.-Democratic Party presidential candidates have been the two leading contenders in elections that date back to 1856. In the last 150-plus years, rarely has a party pickup in the White House lost a single state—from the election just prior—to the opposition.

In fact, I have found just two exceptions of any states reverting back to the immediate competition (in 1884 and 1896) and two mitigating factors (in 1960 and 1968). But all other party pickup victors retained every state that their respective party's losing candidate had won in the presidential election just prior.


Below I'm going to spell it out.…

The listing is of all party pickups dating back to 1856/1860. In 1856, John Fremont (R-California) lost the first Republican-vs.-Democratic bout to James Buchanan (D-Pennsylvania). In 1860, Abraham Lincoln (R-Illinois) was the first party pickup example. What follows are party pickup lists from that point forward. First: A given election's loser and the states that candidate won. Second: The next election's victor, a.k.a. the party pickup, and whether he carried every state won by the same political party's loser from the previous election.

Reason for this exercise: I'm predicting 2008 to result in a Democratic party pickup with Illinois senator Barack Obama. And I believe—despite any suspense in the likes of battlegrounds Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania—he will end up not losing a single 2004 John Kerry state (which includes those three). This gives me—and anyone interested—some history that also serves as one's guide to what may materialize (and how to handle any predictions in this year's Electoral College).



1856 LOSER John C. Freemont (R-California): Connecticut, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin
1860 WINNER Abraham Lincoln (R-Illinois): All of the above…and more!


1880 LOSER Winfield S. Hancock (D-Pennsylvania): Alabama, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina,, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia
1884 WINNER Grover Cleveland (D-New York): Cleveland lost California and Nevada to James Blaine (R-Maine)


1884 LOSER James Blaine (R-Maine): California, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin
1888 WINNER Benjamin Harrison (R-Indiana): All of the above…and more!


1888 LOSER Grover Cleveland (D-New York): Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia
1892 WINNER Grover Cleveland (D-New York): All of the above…and more!


1892 LOSER Benjamin Harrison (R-Indiana): Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, Wyoming
1896 WINNER William McKinley (R-Ohio): McKinley lost Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Washington to William Jennings Bryan (D-Nebraska)


1908 LOSER William Jennings Bryan (D-Nebraska): Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
1912 WINNER Woodrow Wilson (D-New Jersey): All of the above…and more!


1916 LOSER Charles E. Hughes (R-New York): Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin
1920 WINNER Warren G. Harding (R-Ohio): All of the above…and more!


1928 LOSER Alfred E. Smith (D-New York): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Carolina
1932 WINNER Franklin D. Roosevelt (D-New York): All of the above…and more!


1948 LOSER Thomas Dewey (R-New York): Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont
1952 WINNER Dwight Eisenhower (R-Kansas): All of the above…and more!


1956 LOSER Adlai Stevenson (D-Illinois): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina
1960 WINNER John F. Kennedy (D-Massachusetts): All of the above…and more! (Mitigating factors involve Democratic Virginia senator Harry Byrd and Alabama and Mississippi—but nothing reverted back to the Republicans.)


1964 LOSER Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona): Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina
1968 WINNER Richard Nixon (R-California): Arizona and South Carolina…and more! (Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi were won by George Wallace, American Independent-Alabama; nothing reverted back to the Democrats.)


1972 LOSER George McGovern (D-South Dakota): Massachusetts + District of Columbia
1976 WINNER Jimmy Carter (D-Georgia): All of the above…and more!


1976 LOSER Gerald Ford (R-Michigan): Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wyoming
1980 WINNER Ronald Reagan (R-California): All of the above…and more!


1988 LOSER Michael Dukakis (D-Massachusetts): Hawaii, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin + District of Columbia
1992 WINNER Bill Clinton (D-Arkansas): All of the above…and more!


1996 LOSER Bob Dole (R-Kansas): Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming
2000 WINNER George W. Bush (R-Texas): All of the above…and more!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

1972 LOSER George McGovern (D-South Dakota): Massachusetts + District of Columbia
1976 WINNER Jimmy Carter (D-Georgia): All of the above…and more!
!

I think Jimmy Carter could have slept throughout the '76 campaign and still outperformed poor ol' McGovern.

I think Obama will win the Kerry states...right now, however, not only is that a tall order, but Obama wiinning MORE is a perhaps an even taller order. So much seems to hinge on Ohio and Colorado.

Kuli writes:

What's going on in Maine???

Here's a fascinating fly in the ointment for Election 2008. There are numerous realistic scenarios among the true battelground states where we could end up with a 269-269 electoral result. However, what if Obama wins Maine and gets their 2 electoral votes assigned for winning the state's popular vote AND Obama gets the 1 electoral vote for winning the coastal, more liberal congressional district, BUT McCain wins the 1 electoral vote for the North rural congressional district. Hence, that 1 district could change 269-269 to 270-268 and a McCain national electoral win. How wild historically would that be!!! Keep in mind that Maine, along with Nebraska, is not 100% winner take all in the electoral college. One could easily see the Perot Independents of rural Maine siding with McCain/Palin. Maine has often been profiled as an area that shares more in commonality with the Pacific NW than with the culture of New England. Just some food for thought.....

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More news of Hillary attempting to impact Obama's battleground states. To date, she has physically campaigned for him in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. She is now efforting with her top supporters and grounds coordinators a "Hillary Sent Me" grass roots campaign (approved by Obama in case her bashers think it's an ego trip). Each weekend her peeps are targeting one battleground state to canvas on her behalf. It starts on 9/27 as she herself will be in Michigan while her peeps will be in New Hampshire. The itenerary will be fluid based on where the polls are driving them.

“Today I am asking all of you to stand up, hit the road and spread the word that we must elect Barack Obama president and we must send a filibuster-proof majority to Congress,” Clinton was telling supporters in a conference call Friday, according to remarks provided to The Associated Press in advance. “This is a call to action. This is a must-do. We all have a role. And there is not a moment to lose.”

As many as 2,000 supporters from all 50 states were expected to participate in the conference call. Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who is challenging Republican John Sununu for his Senate seat in that state, was also expected to take part.

Here was one source for the above:
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/news/stories/2008/09/19/obama_clinton.html

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Another fact: Maine and Nebraska have not yet seen their electoral votes split in any election.

Tie scenario: Obama carries all 2004 John Kerry states (252 electoral votes) and wins back 2000 Dem/2004 GOP Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5) and wins just one of the three triple crowns in bellwethers, Nevada (5), for a total of 269 electoral votes.

By the way: Richard Nixon never should've been elected to a second term. That 1972 Democratic nomination for South Dakota senator George McGovern was an incompetent campaign.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oh, If Obama wins (and I believe he will)…he is going to owe Hillary and Bill (but Hillary, especially) "big time!"

 

[future_boy]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Ah, but there is so much more to Georgia than the smog and traffic of Atlanta.

Since you asked, the pollmeister has numbers (hmmm...what a surprise!): Georgia, now the 9th most populated state, has 9.3 million people; Atlanta has under 500, 000 citizens. Metro Atlanta, which includes some 28 of Georgia's 159 counties, has 5.2 million citizens (more than 50% of GA's population lives in metro Atlanta).

Atlanta's demographics are 52% Black, 33% White; also, 13% of Atlanta is supposedly gay (3rd highest in the US). However, within the state, GA is 67% White and 30% Black, which is the 4th among states in terms of % of population that is black. I have read that among registered voters, just shy of 40% in GA are black. In addition to Atlanta and certain suburbs, black populations are high in Middle, East Central, Southwestern, and the Low Country of GA.

Atlanta may be the state's largest city, but it is followed by Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, Macon, and Athens.

GA is 70% Protestant, and almost 30% Baptist. That is significant to know. Most white Georgians, some 70%+, typically vote Republican. It is very conservative culturally, and religion as well as racial attitudes have caused many whites to join the GOP; this tendency really started in the '80's in GA, but took hold for good in the late '90's. In GA, I can look at someone's skin color and predict their party affiliation correctly 80% of the time.

I see.Thanks for the explanation.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

By the way: Richard Nixon never should've been elected to a second term. That 1972 Democratic nomination for South Dakota senator George McGovern was an incompetent campaign.

I had the honor of meeting and interviewing McGovern in 1984. Such a nice, sweet gentleman. So very approachable and real. But, I will always remember that he guaranteed me that the political cycle would change and that liberalism would again dominate within 12 years. He told me not to be disenchanted as a young southern liberal (which I am no more, of course) that our day would come. 1996 has come and gone and liberalism is still fairly dormant some 24 years since our discussion. Oh, well, G.M. was as good a prognosticator as a campaigner.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I had the honor of meeting and interviewing McGovern in 1984. Such a nice, sweet gentleman. So very approachable and real. But, I will always remember that he guaranteed me that the political cycle would change and that liberalism would again dominate within 12 years. He told me not to be disenchanted as a young southern liberal (which I am no more, of course) that our day would come. 1996 has come and gone and liberalism is still fairly dormant some 24 years since our discussion. Oh, well, G.M. was as good a prognosticator as a campaigner.

You don't see the first two years of the Clinton administration to be a fulfillment of McGovern's reassurance?

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

He told me not to be disenchanted as a young southern liberal (which I am no more, of course) that our day would come.

Which? You're not disenchanted? Southern? Liberal? Or, young? Sorry, Samuel, I couldn't resist!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You don't see the first two years of the Clinton administration to be a fulfillment of McGovern's reassurance?

No. Clinton/Gore ran as moderates...blue dog Democrats...fiscally responsible, socially moderate. He was well-studied on the mistakes of Dems past, and made sure the Repubs could not box him in with the "L" word. Although, you're right in that those first two years almost derailed him as he allowed the boat to veer left. McGovern was talking to me, however, about a '60's style liberal revolution.

No Access...er, Random Access writes:

Which? You're not disenchanted? Southern? Liberal? Or, young? Sorry, Samuel, I couldn't resist

Disenchanted? Um..somewhat--perhaps more indifferent at this point
Southern? Ya'll know I'm whistling Dixie as I type this
Liberal? Not so much....I rather like keeping my money, and the concept of individual responsiblity and accuntability seems lost on some folks.
Young? Hmmm....depends on what the definition of 'young' is....

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion_2008_south_carolina_presidential_election



Election 2008: South Carolina Presidential Election

South Carolina: McCain 51% Obama 45%

By Rassmussen Reports.com | Saturday, September 20, 2008


"In South Carolina, John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to just six percentage points.

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds McCain leading Obama 51% to 45%. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Obama voters are voting with enthusiasm for him while just 9% are voting primarily against McCain. As for McCain supporters, just 63% are enthusiastic about their candidate while 34% are voting primarily against Obama…."






I have presented this because I think, now that post-Republican National Convention bounce for the McCain/Palin ticket has appeared to have settled, the Dakotas and Carolinas are worth observing once again. And so are many other states.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We always get some curious results like the South Carolina one. If Obama wins the Palmetto State, I will: personally take back all the hateful things I ever said about the miserable year that I lived there! In fact, I will go jog 5 miles around the Battery in Charleston during the sultry afternoon heat and humidity in August of next year (how those cadets at The Citadel don't pass out, I will never know). Further, I will actually force myself to eat crawfish at a swampy, gator-infested low country boil.

But seriously, polls like Obama winning in Illinois by +6 or Maine by +4, and McCain winning in West Virginia by +4 or +6 in South Carolina are indeed head scratchers. One would assume the two campaigns know what they're doing. Take, for instance, Obama...he has put no $ or major resources in WV or SC, but yet you find a poll which makes you question their strategies. You have to assume they know more than we know, and aren't focusing on those states for a reason. Still, I remember in 2000 that Gore mis-read a couple of states. He pulled out of Ohio early, and then nearly won it, making you think a little more effort could have delivered the state. Then, Gore didn't realize he was about to lose his home state of TN until 2-3 days before the election. I won't ever forget the Monday morning before the election, he was on the morning news programs being interviewed while airport-hopping across the Volunteer State. Didn't exactly send a message of confidence to viewers when the day before the election, you're pushing hard for votes in your home state.

Oh, and Happy Birthday Mr. Access....someone of your years should always be addressed with respect (although your first name is still "No").

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought "liberal" in America means progressive. Is America less progressive now than it was in 1984? You have a black Democrat running for president and not a single Republican calls him a "commernist". You have a female running mate, on the Republican ticket no less, and they stand a fairly good chance to win more states than Mondale did with Ferraro. You have gay marriage in several states and civil unions in several others, and when I visited the USA as a thirteen-year-old (beginning to put two and two together) I found more gay-friendly books in Salt Lake than in Holland. And have any abortion clinics been bombed lately?

B'back, I'll defer to one of the politcal historians here on all the diffences between liberalism as America knew it from the 1930's to the 1960's versus contemporary times. My take is that old McGovern style liberalism means government is the solution to everything. If there is a budgetary challenge, liberals will lay down like a $10 hooker. They throw money at every special interest group and for any need or desire you can remotely justify. They can't say "NO" to spending your money. Liberals are notorious for forcing social engineering upon the public whether they are ready or not...maybe that's a good thing, and maybe it's not....but, it makes the oppostion dig in deeper than ever and can strengthen the opposition. Many times, these things have a natural course. For example, Clinton pushed gays in the military and there was a huge pushback. Now, 15 years later, the majority of Americans seem okay with it. School busing to impose integration was a horrible idea from liberals that created racial tensions in the South that are still visible today IMHO. But, McGovern represented that old school liberalism that we have not seen fully since LBJ, although Nixon and Carter had some liberal tendencies. Reagan re-defined conservatism and to some degree liberalism. Clinton was certainly a New Democrat.

By the way, B'back, some people don't think liberal and progressive are the same thing. Read this article as it will shed some light...
http://correntewire.com/the_difference_between_liberal_and_progressive

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some new polls out today:

CONNECTICUT -- Obama +15 -- ARG
IDAHO -- McCain +29 -- Research 2000
ILLINOIS -- 1) Obama +20 -- Research2000; 2) Obama +16 -- Rasmussen
MARYLAND -- Obama +15 -- ARG
MISSOURI -- McCain +4 -- Reseach 2000
NORTH DAKOTA --McCain +13 -- Research 2000
SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +6 -- Rasmussen
TENNESSEE -- McCain +23 -- ARG
MICHIGAN -- 1) Obama +2 -- ARG
MICHIGAN -- 2) Obama +1 -- Detroit News -- Interesting note that Obama leads by +1 when the question is "McCain or Obama?" but if the question is worded "McCain/Palin or Obama/Biden?", then Obama/Biden leads by +3 (perhaps Baraccuda is not so popular in MI).

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm in Michigan. Thing is, Sammie13, Detroit News is Republican-favored, tending to endorse GOP candidates for president.

Not that this disqualifies the newspaper; but other pollings have Michigan more comfy an Obama victory (and I am not taking Detroit News seriously with this one).

Obama will win the state, in November, and he's liable to do so between 3 and 5 percentage points. If it's more than 5, it's because the economy is so bad, GOP support in areas like Grand Rapids is weakened more so in 2008 by comparison to 2004.

P.S. Interesting fact on Michigan: In six decades (including this one), the state has backed one party's candidates throughout a given decade. Republicans won the state in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s. Democrats won Michigan in the 1960s, 1990s, and (thus far) 2000s.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Polls this time of year never seem to take a day off, so I give you the Sunday Polls:

ALABAMA -- McCain +27 -- Press Register -- The tide for McCain seems to roll ever higher in the Heart of Dixie.
OHIO -- McCain +6 -- Univ of Cinc -- McCain gains 2 points from their previous poll.
NORTH CAROLINA -- TIE -- Public Policy Polling -- This poll had a large sample group, and shows some postive shifts in the Tarheel State for Obama.
FLORIDA -- 1) McCain +2 -- Miami Herald; 2) McCain +1 -- Research2000 -- Obama just can't quite seem to get over the hump in the Sunshine State...several ties have been his best result...Tampa Bay seems to be ground zero in FL. Here is a good article from the Washington Post on Obama FL strategies/challenges:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/20/AR2008092001916.html

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just to tunnel down a bit on PPP's North Carolina poll, which showed a TIE (by the way, in the big Senate race, Kay Hagan, the Dem, is leading incumbent Dole by 5 points).

**Gender: Men were +9 for McCain while women were +6 for Obama.
**Race: Whites favored McCain by +25 while blacks favored Obama +86.
**76% of poll respondents were white.
**Party affiliation of repondents: Democrat--49%, Repub--35%; Indie--16%
**Women responders outnumbered male 55-45%
**Regional breakdown in NC:
--NE and N. Coastal -- Obama +3
--Winston-Salem/ N. Central -- McCain +4
--Greater Charlotte -- McCain +6
--Western NC -- McCain +7
--SE and S. Coastal -- McCain +7
--Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill -- Obama +17

These stats make me feel less comfortable about Obama's chances in that they polled 10% more women. Also, it seems odd that, despite there being more registered Dems in NC than Repubs, that this poll would have Dems outnumbering Repubs 49-35%. I don't know, where's ICO7 to explain Tobacco Rd to us?