15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought "liberal" in America means progressive. Is America less progressive now than it was in 1984?

My take is that old McGovern style liberalism means government is the solution to everything. If there is a budgetary challenge, liberals will lay down like a $10 hooker. They throw money at every special interest group and for any need or desire you can remotely justify. They can't say "NO" to spending your money. Liberals are notorious for forcing social engineering upon the public whether they are ready or not...

By the way, B'back, some people don't think liberal and progressive are the same thing. Read this article as it will shed some light...
http://correntewire.com/the_difference_between_liberal_and_progressive

That's a good description of what most people think of "liberal" as meaning, in my experience. The linked article adds an element to that which points toward my own take on it:

In the Libertarian Party, there are people whose vision of a Libertarian America is so pure that it's all they can see, all they can talk about, and the only thing they will accept efforts toward. Most of us call them "ivory tower" or "heads in the clouds" libertarians, so gone into the ideal that they're not terribly connected with reality. To me they're the perfect analog of liberals in the Democratic Party -- lost in a dream world, out of touch. The remaining portion of the two parties are the folks who look at what is, look at what would be good to change to get where we want to be, and work to achieve what can be achieved. In both cases, that's the progressive wing, because they're at work where progress can be achieved. In the Libertarian Party, these realists are sometimes called "incrementalists" (or "realists"); in the Democratic Party they're "progressives".

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

North Carolina remains an interesting state to even be discussing this late in the season. For some reason, McCain can't wrap this state up.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

First of all, it's just a poll, so keep in mind I'm just tossing this out there, not really arguing anything. I went back through that particular firms NC polling from its website: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pppmain.asp?@spdT=B6B42829136845A69B19

In early September, the undecideds were nearly 9%, with Obama and McCain tied. In mid-September, McCain was in the lead by 4 points, and the undecideds were at 4%. Currently, the undecideds remain at 4%, and Obama and McCain are tied again. Barr's support remains 4-5%, and probably consist mostly of disgruntled Republicans who don't want/like McCain. However, the 2004 presidential results had Badnarik with only 1/3 of 1% in NC, so it seems really high and I'm curious if, as November gets closer, that number will go down, and where those voters will go.

According to the State Board of Elections, Democrats do indeed outnumber Republicans 45% to 32% (22% are Independents). The Independent vote is consistently under-represented by these polls (at 15%).

They also offer an interesting poll and analysis here regarding the number of non-natives moving to NC, and how that can play a part in November: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/achangingstate.pdf

As for the women vote, it's possible they are mimicking exit polling results from CNN, consider this: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html 59% to 41% female to male. I'm not sure how McCain's choice of Pander is really swaying the female vote in this state... it doesn't appear to be working.

Good stuff, ICO, thanks for the links. Hmmm....I wonder if, since the white vote in NC was 71% white in '04, if this poll is actually short-changing Obama since it shows 76% white responders. If anything, I would think that in '08, the black vote would be up, consequently lowering the white vote. I was surprised to see that in NC, the female vote comprised 59% of the total vote, so along gender lines, I suppose the poll showing 55% female is not so off base.

Also, it just re-confirms what I've often discussed about the southern nuance of calling yourself a Dem, but typically voting GOP in pres. elections. Obama, in the one article, clearly does well in NC with out of state whtie Dems, but does pitifully bad among white homegrown Dems.

I'm so cynical, I don't think I'll ever believe Obama will win NC until he actually does, but fascinating that he's still in the game.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That's a good description of what most people think of "liberal" as meaning, in my experience. The linked article adds an element to that which points toward my own take on it:

In the Libertarian Party, there are people whose vision of a Libertarian America is so pure that it's all they can see, all they can talk about, and the only thing they will accept efforts toward. Most of us call them "ivory tower" or "heads in the clouds" libertarians, so gone into the ideal that they're not terribly connected with reality. To me they're the perfect analog of liberals in the Democratic Party -- lost in a dream world, out of touch. The remaining portion of the two parties are the folks who look at what is, look at what would be good to change to get where we want to be, and work to achieve what can be achieved. In both cases, that's the progressive wing, because they're at work where progress can be achieved. In the Libertarian Party, these realists are sometimes called "incrementalists" (or "realists"); in the Democratic Party they're "progressives".

Kuli, I guess that would be me...only an "incremental" Democrat-lite who keeps moving in the Libertarain direction. Even on social engineering, I'm an advocate of baby steps...you can't just bulldoze over people when they're not ready for change. Gay marriage may be right in 2008 for CA and MA, but should we really expect OK and AL to be on board? And, as Obama himself said, gun control in Cleveland means something entirely different than gun control in Montana. Many times, one size does not fit all.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

FLORIDA -- 1) McCain +2 -- Miami Herald; 2) McCain +1 -- Research2000 -- Obama just can't quite seem to get over the hump in the Sunshine State...several ties have been his best result...Tampa Bay seems to be ground zero in FL. Here is a good article from the Washington Post on Obama FL strategies/challenges:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/20/AR2008092001916.html

From the St. Petersburg Times on the Palin effect on undecideds in FL:

Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.

Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.

The group is comprised of 11 undecided voters. Pollmeister do you see this effect indicated in recent polls?

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article818181.ece

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

From the St. Petersburg Times on the Palin effect on undecideds in FL:
The group is comprised of 11 undecided voters. Pollmeister do you see this effect indicated in recent polls?

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article818181.ece

First, while Tampa Bay...one of my favorite places to chill.....is the battleground region in Florida, at least according to the Wash Post, it presents some challenges for Obama. First, it is the home of Gov Crist; secondly, while there is a sizable black population in parts of Tampa and St Pete, there are an awful lot of retirees in the Suncoast region, who share 'life experiences' with their peer, Sen McCain.

In regards to polls, Palin has had some slippage, but not alot. Like many social conservaties, she's a very polarizing figure. I think the economic woes of late have taken center stage. In most polls, she still has higher favorability than McCain, Obama or Biden, but she also leads in 'lacking experience.'

Here were results from Ras. on Palin from states in 2 different regions. First, Georgia:

As for the candidates’ running mates, Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 37%. Joe Biden’s ratings are less flattering; 43% have a favorable view of the Senator, while 51% view him unfavorably.

While just 34% of voters say Biden was a good VP choice for Obama, 62% say Palin was a good choice for McCain. However, 50% of voters do not think Palin is ready to be president if the situation arises. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think the Alaskan Governor is ready to take over the White House. Voters are evenly divided on Biden--42% think Biden would be prepared for the presidency, 43% disagree

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...a/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election

Wisconsin:

But in the first Rasmussen reports poll in the state since Obama and McCain selected their running mates, voters feel more strongly about Sarah Palin, with 39% rating their view of her Very Favorable versus 24% who say the same of Joseph Biden. But 31% have a Very Unfavorable view of Palin, while only 24% feel that way about the Democrat.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Wisconsin voters say McCain made the right choice in selecting Palin to be his vice president, and 37% believe that of Obama’s choice of Biden.

Unlike in many other states, women voters in Wisconsin feel as favorably as male voters about Palin and McCain’s selection of her.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election

Interesting that 39% rate her Very Favorable in Wisconsin, but 62% rate her Very Favorable in Georgia.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In regards to polls, Palin has had some slippage, but not alot. Like many social conservaties, she's a very polarizing figure. I think the economic woes of late have taken center stage. In most polls, she still has higher favorability than McCain, Obama or Biden, but she also leads in 'lacking experience.'

Research 2000 has a twelve point shift on Palin's favorabilty/unfavorability from Sept. 11-15 and CBS/NYT something similar from Sept. 8-15. As of Sept. 18, Research 2000 polls:

Favorable/Unfavorable
CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
MCCAIN 46 46 8
OBAMA 56 35 9
BIDEN 50 32 18
PALIN 42 46 12

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/9/18

From a Newsweek blog:

All in all, she'd gone from the most to least popular White House hopeful over the course of five short days.

Whether Palin's slippage affects McCain's bid remains to be seen. But to deny that she's slipping is no longer a reality-based proposition.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/18/more-on-palin-s-declining-favorability-rating.aspx

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

According to Wiki, WI went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 by less than 1%. If Obama is polling better than that, I'd say he's in good shape.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin,_2004

RCP Average has him up by 2% and Rasmussen by 2%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just read that Obama's pulling 50 campaign staff out of North Dakota and into MN & WI:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-21-obamanorthdakota_N.htm

Thank God! No sense in fighting for three red votes, when he's clinging by a thread to the 20 votes in barely-blue MN & WI. Smart move - good to see that he knows how to prioritize, since losing some of these big battlegrounds in the north/east could cost him the election.

Now if he can just send a few of those staffers on over to PA!

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kuli, I guess that would be me...only an "incremental" Democrat-lite who keeps moving in the Libertarain direction. Even on social engineering, I'm an advocate of baby steps...you can't just bulldoze over people when they're not ready for change. Gay marriage may be right in 2008 for CA and MA, but should we really expect OK and AL to be on board? And, as Obama himself said, gun control in Cleveland means something entirely different than gun control in Montana. Many times, one size does not fit all.

The problem is that judging by his record, Obama's vision of what gun control ought to be everywhere is what the Jews in Warsaw got: give up your guns, and trust us -- we're the government.

And when it comes to rights, the only restrictions allowable are those self-imposed; anything imposed in any other fashion is a denial of human dignity, however someone might want to dress it up.

I will grant that there are some things that are dependent on circumstances -- for example, my idea that Obama ought to urge two things: one, that the Bush tax cuts be made permanent, and two, that a new tax bracket be added on top, establishing a sort of alternative minimum tax for the wealthy. I hate taxes, especially income taxes, but with the debt where it is, something drastic has to be done lest the whole show be lost. The revenue from the new bracket at the top would go to one thing only: paying down the debt (beginning with all those IOUs on the Social Security books).

Of course, having said that, I ask myself... if Obama came out with such a proposal, what would that do to the numbers in our polls?

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The problem is that judging by his record, Obama's vision of what gun control ought to be everywhere is what the Jews in Warsaw got: give up your guns, and trust us -- we're the government.

Relax Kuli no one wants to take your guns. (How many do you have BTW?)

Reference to the Jews in Warsaw (during the Nazi era?) has little relevance to gun control in the US in the 21st century.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I will grant that there are some things that are dependent on circumstances -- for example, my idea that Obama ought to urge two things: one, that the Bush tax cuts be made permanent, and two, that a new tax bracket be added on top, establishing a sort of alternative minimum tax for the wealthy. I hate taxes, especially income taxes, but with the debt where it is, something drastic has to be done lest the whole show be lost. The revenue from the new bracket at the top would go to one thing only: paying down the debt (beginning with all those IOUs on the Social Security books).

I have the perfect solution to the debt. Scale back the national government from the unconstitutional abomination that it is today. Unfortunately neither candidate is for that option.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Because the economy would fall apart.

I disagree. There have been plenty of well respected studies which have shown that a smaller government size would most likely improve economic growth.

For example:

http://www.house.gov/jec/growth/function/function.htm

This paper shows that excessively large government has reduced economic growth. These findings present a compelling case that rather than devising new programs to spend any surplus that may emerge from the current economic expansion, Congress should develop a long-range strategy to reduce the size of government so we will be able to achieve a more rapid rate of economic growth in the future.

http://www.heritage.org/research/budget/bg1831.cfm

This paper concludes that a large and growing government is not conducive to better economic performance. Indeed, reducing the size of government would lead to higher incomes and improve America’s competitiveness.

The idea that we need a huge government to somehow manage the economy is ridiculous in my opinion. America has seen explosive economic growth several times in its history when the government was MUCH smaller than it is today.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Those are actually just theories that fail to take into account the actual ramifications of their wishful thinking. Both articles benefit from being vague, which is typically how economic theories thrive for indoctrination purposes.

Ok then, can you share any links to research which presents a counterpoint (that we need a large government)? I haven't seen too much of that. With respect to your opinion I would prefer to hear that from someone respected in the economic field if I am to disbelieve what I have heard to the contrary (and I'm not just talking about those articles, it seems to be the prevailing wisdom among most economists that small government is better for economic growth). If you find those articles vague, where can I read a non-vague argument for your position?

even the real abomination, the military-industrial complex.

That's certainly one of the worst parts of it, I completely agree with you there.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The right to marry is a basic human right. I want the same human rights in MA as in MS. Though for strategic purposes I think it's good to begin state-by-state.

Also, sammie, about those Florida retirees sharing "life experiences" with McCain. I know I read somewhere (someone posted it on this forum) older voters were more likely to see McCain's age as problematic than middle-aged voters. Does anyone have more on this? This could be devastating to McCain if it's true.

There are so many different variables in this election, that it is very difficult to predict an outcome. My instinct is that Obama is still going to pull it off, but obviously that can't be taken to the bank.

Will the 15-30% of Clinton supporters who say they are voting McCain/Palin actually do it ... or will at the end of the day, will they come back and support Obama, before they pull the lever?

Will older voters see McCain's age as problematic, as you say?

How big a factor will race be at the end of the day? Big as we think? Less than we think?

What will the Ron Paul supporters do? Vote Barr? Vote McCain? Or vote Obama?

It's just too many variables to solidly predict anything with any degree of confidence.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few new polls and introducing some brand new election music....very seasonal I should say, now that autumn is here...and it's spooky, ghoulish overtones. Pay no attention to that knife that Mr. Meyers is holding...well, unless you cross me in a thread.





CALIFORNIA -- Obama +14 -- ARG
IOWA -- 1) Obama +14 -- Research2000; 2) Obama +7 -- ARG
MINNESOTA -- 1) Obama +1 -- ARG; 2) Obama +8 -- Rasmussen
NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +3 -- Rasmussen
VIRGINIA -- McCain +2 -- ARG

So, first, how do you like the new election theme? And what do you think of the new polls? Iowa is starting to show some Obama seperation, but Minnesota is still a mixed bag. I guess that's why Obama is moving more human resources into MN and WI.

 

[Oceansluver78]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, first, how do you like the new election theme? And what do you think of the new polls? Iowa is starting to show some Obama seperation, but Minnesota is still a mixed bag. I guess that's why Obama is moving more human resources into MN and WI.

The Obama campaign has moved out of five states that looked in play months ago, but due to the Palin bounce has now doubled his lead in states such as Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana. At one point Sen. Obama was within single digits from Sen. McCain, even ahead in one Montana poll several months ago. Some within the Democratic ranks were frusterated that money was bieng spent on these states instead of the typical battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, where Sen. Obama was ahead in all the polls in 2 and tied in Florida. Florida is still a toss up and now Ohio is leaning McCain, while Missouri is likely McCain. I'm sure the 50 state stratergy envisioned by Howard Dean will be debated and more than likely be laid to rest as long the Electoral College is in existence.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ That strategy is what won Obama the nomination though. I don't think it was a bad move to explore it's potential some in the general but it is definitely less applicable there.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The Obama campaign has moved out of five states that looked in play months ago, but due to the Palin bounce has now doubled his lead in states such as Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana. At one point Sen. Obama was within single digits from Sen. McCain, even ahead in one Montana poll several months ago. Some within the Democratic ranks were frusterated that money was bieng spent on these states instead of the typical battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, where Sen. Obama was ahead in all the polls in 2 and tied in Florida. Florida is still a toss up and now Ohio is leaning McCain, while Missouri is likely McCain. I'm sure the 50 state stratergy envisioned by Howard Dean will be debated and more than likely be laid to rest as long the Electoral College is in existence.

The 50-state strategy was good for the primaries with their proportional apportionment of delegates, but it's not appropriate for the general election where each state is winner-take-all. So I'm glad Sen. Obama is moving resources from MT and ND into MN and WI.

By the way, when was the last rally in the Virginia Beach area? I'm beginning to think that Virginia is winnable, but I don't remember any major events there in a while.

Obama is in Green Bay today, and Dunedin the day after tomorrow.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I still believe in the 50 state strategy for the time being. We're looking at Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina potentially in play, and no doubt that strategy helped in those states.

I think Nevada is the biggest wild card - no one really knows with any certainty what will happen there. So many new Democrats have been registered and moving their caucus up to January really seemed to pay off in mobilizing the ground game there.