15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I like the music, thank you.

I like the polls where Obama is doing better than two weeks ago. But I hope he will not repeat the mistakes of Gore and Kerry, giving up certain states in september which they lost by less than 1%. As this election contains so many new factors, perhaps the polls cannot entirely be trusted and no states where he is less than 5% behind should be given up until the last week.

You're quite welcome, B'back. With all of Obama's money, he can afford to have taken some chances early on, but now it's crunch time. I agree that being behind in internals by more than 5% should be a sign to move on. By the way, B'back, I actually ventured today at lunch into the local Democratic Party HQ for some signs bumper stickers for congressional and senate races. Then, I walked to the next block and went inside the Obama HQ, which is still open despite him leaving the state. They were out of everything as far as signs, stickers, etc. But, it was nice to have a Dem candidate with some presence here.

On the other hand, I was walking by a TV this morning that was on Fox News, and they said voters in certain TV markets are getting fatigue from the onslaught of Obama/McCain commericials. They said that the average person in Tampa, FL is being exposted to something like 140 McCain/Obama commericials a day....millions of $'s to reach that 10% undecided voter. They named the 10 markets with the heaviest Obama/McCain ads, and I remember a few of them were Tampa, Reno, Las Vegas, Denver, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee plus 3 more that I have since forgotten.

I like the 50 state strategy overall, esp. given Obama's huge sums of funds. It really helps downticket, and is a nice long-term investment for the Dem party in states where they have struggled.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls and with the election becoming so brutal and nasty, I have yet another new poll results theme song...very appropriate I think. Hey, it's become a feeding frenzy....fins to the left, fins to the right, and I'm the only indie in town.




Just when you thought it was safe....the pollmeister emerges again.

FLORIDA -- McCain +5 -- Rasmussen -- The MacMan has lead in 9 of the last 11 Sunshine State polls from Ras.
GEORGIA -- McCain +18 -- ARG
MICHIGAN -- Obama +7 -- Rasmussen -- Obama getting some seperation in the Wolverine State.
NEVADA -- McCain +1 -- Suffolk
NEW JERSEY -- Obama +9 -- ARG
NEW MEXICO -- Obama +11 -- PPP -- McCain may be throwing in the towel soon in the Last Frontier.
OHIO -- McCain +4 -- Rasmussen -- Plus Four comes up alot for McCain lately in the Buckeye State.
PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +3 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +2 -- MasonDixon -- not out of the woods yet as PA continues to trend as having one of the highest undecided electorates.
SOUTH DAKOTA -- McCain +16 -- ARG
VIRGINIA -- 1) McCain +2 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +3 -- ABC News; 3) Obama +6 -- SurveyUSA -- Very mixed results in Old Dominion, but Obama is ahead in two of them.
WISCONSIN -- Obama +5 -- ARG

So any take aways from the latest shark-infested polls?

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So any take aways from the latest shark-infested polls?

It might not be a bad idea to move some of the Michigan money to Indiana and Pennsylvania. Maybe a media buy in Indianapolis and another in Pittsburgh?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It might not be a bad idea to put a little more into Indiana and Pennsylvania. Maybe a media buy in Indianapolis and another in Pittsburgh?

Both are excellent ideas! I would even buy some time in Ft. Wayne & Terre Haute, both would be relatively inexpensive.

I'd also throw some dollars at a buy in Erie & whatever media market is between Pittsburgh & Philly. State College? Harrisburg? Any TV stations tucked in with all of those trees?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Ads are okay, but I think personal appearances move the sticks far better than those silly ads. For many, they are a turn off. Still, you don't looks like a contender unless you're 'on the air'.

Two more polls:

NORTH CAROLINA -- TIE -- Civitas
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +2 -- UNH

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

On advertising, there is something called teh Wisconsin Advertising Project studying Obama & McCain TV ads. Take the week of Sept 6-13, $15 million was spent on advertising, half of that went to the midwest. Obama advertised in 17 states, McCain in 15. Of Obama's ads, 77% were deemed as negative, 56% of McCain's ads went negative.

**Expenditures were roughly the same between the candidates in WI, CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, NC and OH.

**Obama outspent McCain 3:2 in Missouri and 3:1 in Virginia.

**McCain outspent Obama 3:2 in Pennsylvania and 2:1 in Iowa and Minnesota.

**McCain did not run ads in Indiana, Montana or North Dakota.

Also, the three missing cities from the top 10 that I posted earlier were Flint, MI, Grand Rapids, MI, and Green Bay, WI. Denver was #1 in ads (Syntax, don't take a bathroom or fridge break during those commercial breaks...we'd like to hear a report on the Syntax Project on who's negative and how often).

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^According to the RA project the ads are running about 50/50 pos/neg for BOTH candidates in Tampa Bay. They have a rhythm worked out: Obama pos/McCain neg for a week, then they trade off. Then they switch back the following week. Funny though, how even the positive ads are negative if you pay attention to the implied "between the lines" messages.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, first, how do you like the new election theme?

Actually, that sounds more like the future theme of a McCain Presidency, with Sarah in the mask stalking McCain in the dark halls of the White House, looking to carve him up like an Alaskan Moose with that big old knife.

Reporting from the Uncertainty State, PPP will release a poll tomorrow. They provide a clue on their website:

Our new Colorado poll will be out tomorrow morning. Here's your clue:



Palin Favorability Unfavorability Spread

9/9 41 38 Obama +1

9/21 38 47 ?

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/colorado-clue.html

Combined with two similar polls in my earlier post that show a 12 point shift in the favorability/unfavorability, it looks like Palin may be becoming a drag on the ticket.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Denver was #1 in ads (Syntax, don't take a bathroom or fridge break during those commercial breaks...we'd like to hear a report on the Syntax Project on who's negative and how often).

Pollmeister - My report is that this is crazy. I've lived in swing states before, but seriously this is crazy. The ads alternate between McCain/Obama, Schafer/Udall for Senate and Musgrave/Markey for US House district 5. They are neverending. If I didn't absolutely have to watch "the View" and "The Young and the Restless," I'm almost tempted to turn the TV off

For the most part Obama and McCain do not attack each other directly, but the ads do get negative from both sides. I'd say the worst is McCain's "Obama and his big government liberal allies"



For Obama, it's a sarcastic "It's over" lobbyist ad. This one is pretty effective IMO:



The most laughable (and not in a good way) is McCain's "The Original Mavericks":



It's like they're "The Wonder Twins" of US Politics:

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Haven't seen this once yet:



Despicable. As Karen Tumulty comments:

This is hardly subtle: Sinister images of two black men, followed by one of a vulnerable-looking elderly white woman.

Let me stipulate: Obama's Fannie Mae connections are completely fair game. But this ad doesn't even mention a far more significant tie--that of Jim Johnson, the former Fannie Mae chairman who had to resign as head of Obama's vice presidential search team after it was revealed he got a sweetheart deal on a mortgage from Countrywide Financial. Instead, it relies on a fleeting and tenuous reference in a Washington Post Style section story to suggest that Obama's principal economic adviser is former Fannie Mae Chairman Frank Raines. Why? One reason might be that Johnson is white; Raines is black.

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09/mccain_plays_the_race_card.html

My guess is that this ad runs in NC, VA, PA and OH. Racism doesn't play well in Cowtown.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The Obama campaign has moved out of five states that looked in play months ago, but due to the Palin bounce has now doubled his lead in states such as Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana.

I'm looking around to see which states the McCain campaign is abandoning. Not having much luck. Anyone have some info?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Actually, that sounds more like the future theme of a McCain Presidency, with Sarah in the mask stalking McCain in the dark halls of the White House, looking to carve him up like an Alaskan Moose with that big old knife.

Reporting from the Uncertainty State, PPP will release a poll tomorrow. They provide a clue on their website:




http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/colorado-clue.html

Combined with two similar polls in my earlier post that show a 12 point shift in the favorability/unfavorability, it looks like Palin may be becoming a drag on the ticket.

LOL--Who knew the Syntax Project would be so funny? Your idea of Palin chasing Gramps around the White House with the Michael Meyers mask on was hilarious.

All those commercials kinda make me glad that GA is no longer a battleground state. And, yeah, the above ad does hint of typical GOP racial overtones...what happened to the Maverick being so opposed to this kind of politics?

And, B'back, my brain is failing me. I find it remarkable that as many times as I've correctly listed nicknames for New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Alaska, and New Mexico that in the last week or two, twice now I have twice I have mis-labeled a state that I clearly know. Very sloppy...the pollmeister's cerebral capacity seems to diminish daily.

And now, some new battleground polls...all of these are from Quinnipiac.

COLORADO -- Obama +4
MICHIGAN-- Obama +4
MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- who can turn the world on with a smile?
WISCONSIN -- Obama +7

Obama's rolling along nicely in today's polls. CO is continuing to look good. Hey, if I had told you 2 years ago that a Democrat would be outpolling a Republican by a wider margin in CO, MI, and WI than in MN, you would have thought I was crazy. When you think of loyal liberal Democratic states, you usually think of MA and MN, but the North Star state is starting to hint of turning colors.

Oh, and when I think about Minnesota, do Norseman or Vikings jump to the front of the line...perhaps ice fishing....or collapsing bridges....? No, my first impression of Minnesota is the theme and visuals in this video (note that at 1:28, you can hear Joan Jett & the Blackhearts version):



Is that not the ultimate gay man's theme?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a new poll from Florida ...

Florida, Mason Dixon for NBC News 9/16-18: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm assuming the poll from Colorado does this to our friend, Syntax:


My God, who wouldn't want to live there.....in scenic Colorado....makes me want to go back to my Tennessee mountain home.



And some afternoon polls for you:

ARKANSAS-- McCain +12 -- ARG -- Coolblue's been asking about the Natural State, and Clinton Country has McCain up by a dozen. Pig! Suey! Pig!
COLORADO -- Obama +7 -- Public Policy Polling -- Here is the poll that the Syntax Project was so eagerly awaiting. If this keeps up, the Uncertainty State will land a new nickname. I like PPP polls because they typically have larger sample sizes, and lower margin of errors...and that's the case here, too.
FLORIDA -- Obama +2 -- NBC/Mason Dixon -- Sunshine State polls far too erratic lately.
IOWA -- Obama +14 -- Research2000 -- You can unlock the crazy Republican uncle living in your basement because Obama lately seems to have experienced a re-birth in the Hawkeye State.
MASSACHUSSETTS -- Obama +16 -- ARG --Hey, it's the Gay State...er, the Bay State.
OREGON -- Obama +11 -- ARG -- ....but only if Dems can put down there granola bars long enough to fill out a ballot in the Beaver State.
PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +4 -- ARG -- The Keystone State polling well for Obama.
VERMONT -- Obama +18 -- Ah, the Green Mountain State is calling my name -- maple syrup, cheese, and Ben & Jerry's ice cream..

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a new poll from Florida ...

Florida, Mason Dixon for NBC News 9/16-18: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

WOW! I'm still not holding my breath for Florida, but something occurred to me - Even though McCain raised twice as much money as Obama last month in Florida (which is why I sadly wrote the state off)... it doesn't cost anything to vote.

Florida's McCain supporters may have more money than Florida's Obama supporters - But that doesn't mean there are more of them. All Obama's supporters have to do is show up in November... will urban centers like Jacksonville be enough to tip Florida's scale this year?

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey Sammie I have a question for you. I saw a poll today from N.H. which had McCain ahead 47-45% but it also said 25% were undecided.

Do you have any info on how many are undecided in states such as Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada?

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That Colorado poll is a very good sign. One of the few recent polls there I can remember where Obama is ahead and outside the margin of error.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There's another thread on the Electoral College. I'm waiting a little bit to respond thoroughly. But I do want to say that I have the feeling a decisive direction will be taken on whether U.S. voters go with John McCain or Barack Obama.

In other words: The U.S. popular vote may be close (no more than 3 percent separating them); but I have this feeling there will be a substantial difference between the winner and loser in the Electoral College. (I know: It's hard for some to imagine.)

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So do I, and I've never even been there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87buJ-XA994

Anyway, happy about the polls. I know the Palin bounce couldn't last. There is nothing to bounce for.

Ah, B'back, what a wonderful place that is, too. The Smokey Mountains are a little piece of paradise.

This has become the thread where politics, geography and pop culture meet.

Four more late afternoon polls for you.

OHIO -- TIE -- InsiderAdvantage -- After countless polls of McCain up by 4 in the Buckeye State, I'd say this is considerable improvement.
CALIFORNIA -- Obama +17 -- Rasmussen
KANSAS -- McCain +20 -- Rasmussen -- Say it isn't so, Dorothy!!!!

And before I give the final poll, let's take a moment to give some respect to our OP, Snapcat. For with this next poll, his heart will break, and here is a tender musical tribute to him. Hey, Snappy, Kentucky is still an awesome place:


And, so with fond thoughts of the Bluegrass State, I give you this poll:
KENTUCKY -- McCain +19 -- SurveyUSA

Finally, this is a good article explaining why Georgia left the 2008 battlefield.

Pairing Sarah Palin with John McCain united Georgia Republicans, now nearly unanimous in their support of their party ticket while a few Democrats keep Obama at arms’ length. McCain also attracts most Independents although the shift in InsiderAdvantage polls from September 11 to 18 suggests that the decline in the GOP advantage results from some male Independents, especially those aged 30 – 44, shifting toward the Democrat.

As expected African-American support is coalescing behind Obama. However as I noted in an earlier piece, to win Georgia, Obama must get more white votes than recent Democrats have managed. Thus far the Illinois senator has made little progress. The two recent InsiderAdvantage polls show Obama with no more support than John Kerry attracted and that led to a loss by more than half a million votes.

http://insideradvantagegeorgia.com/...er 2008/9-24-08/Bullock_Sidelines92419641.php

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We need to keep that focus up in Colorado, and keep sending Joe Biden and Hillary to Pennsylvania.