15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a recap of some of the latest polls, my apologies if some of these have been posted previously.

Florida, Strategic Vision 9/20-22: McCain 48%, Obama 45%.
Florida, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: McCain 51%, Obama 41%, Barr 4%, Nader 1%.

Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision 9/20-22: Obama 47%, McCain 46%.
Pennsylvania, Rasmussen Reports 9/24: Obama 49%, McCain 45%.
Pennsylvania, Zogby Interactive 9/15-19: McCain 46%, Obama 44%, Barr 3%.
Pennsylvania, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 43%, McCain 41%.
Pennsylvania, Survey USA 9/23-24: Obama 50%, McCain 44%.

Ohio, Rasmussen Reports 9/23: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.
Ohio, Zogby Interactive Poll 9/9-12: McCain 48%, Obama 44%, Barr 5%.

Michigan, Detroit Free Press by Selzer 9/22-24: Obama 51%, McCain 38%, Barr 1%.
Michigan, Strategic Vision 9/22-24: Obama 48%, McCain 45%.
Michigan, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 47%, McCain 39%.
Michigan, EPIC MRA 9/20-22: Obama 48%, McCain 38%.

North Carolina, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Barr 2%, Nader 1%.
North Carolina, Rasmussen Reports 9/23: Obama 49%, McCain 47%.

New Hampshire, Strategic Vision 9/22-24: Obama 46%, McCain 45%.
New Hampshire, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: McCain 46%, Obama 43%, Barr 4%, Nader 2%.
New Hampshire, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 44%, McCain 43%.

Virginia, Zogby Interactive 9/9-12: McCain 48%, Obama 43%, Barr 3%.
New Mexico, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, Barr 2%.
West Virginia, Rasmussen Reports 9/24: McCain 50%, Obama 42%.
New York, Survey USA 9/23-24: Obama 57%, McCain 38%.
Massachusetts, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 55%, McCain 39%.
Wisconsin, Research 2000 for WISC TV 9/22-23: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.
Oregon, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.
Maine, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
Delaware, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 57%, McCain 37%.

It appears as though Obama is in the process of sealing the deal in Michigan. Pollster has moved it back to Obama's column. McCain has consistently led in Ohio, albeit by a small margin. Pollster has moved West Virginia back into the McCain column; the state's brief flirtation with swing state status was short, indeed.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

BlueNC has some background info on the surprising poll numbers from North Carolina.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, back in June I thought those 15 states would be where to watch to see who wins the election. Since then, some haven't panned out so well, and others were spot on.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, back in June I thought those 15 states would be where to watch to see who wins the election. Since then, some haven't panned out so well, and others were spot on.

The only ones you were a little off target on were:

Georgia
Missouri
North Dakota
South Carolina

Other than that though, not a bad prediction for the other 11.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The only ones you were a little off target on were:

Georgia
Missouri
North Dakota
South Carolina

Other than that though, not a bad prediction for the other 11.

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

And in return, some new poll numbers from Virginia ....

Rasmussen ....

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

And in return, some new poll numbers from Virginia ....

Rasmussen ....

Let's call VA the "Ping-Pong" state!

It's good to see Obama hit 50 in one of these battleground states.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NickCole claimed that McCain benefited from his political stunt. Have you poll-followers found any proof to this? RCP only shows Obama on the rise and McCain on the fall: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The only poll which had McCain gaining ground by this stunt was the one Nick quoted the gallup daily tracking poll, the others remained pretty much the same.

One way you can tell that this is a stunt is that McCain has done it before. In 1999 his postponed the announcement of his candidacy because of the war in Kosovo and gained lots of media attention for doing so just like he did this time.

Country First my ass.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NickCole claimed that McCain benefited from his political stunt. Have you poll-followers found any proof to this? RCP only shows Obama on the rise and McCain on the fall: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

I found this Gallup poll today. Apparently, some people trust it when they want to make specious arguments:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110749/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-45.aspx

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a recap of some of the latest polls, my apologies if some of these have been posted previously.

Florida, Strategic Vision 9/20-22: McCain 48%, Obama 45%.
Florida, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: McCain 51%, Obama 41%, Barr 4%, Nader 1%.

Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision 9/20-22: Obama 47%, McCain 46%.
Pennsylvania, Rasmussen Reports 9/24: Obama 49%, McCain 45%.
Pennsylvania, Zogby Interactive 9/15-19: McCain 46%, Obama 44%, Barr 3%.
Pennsylvania, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 43%, McCain 41%.
Pennsylvania, Survey USA 9/23-24: Obama 50%, McCain 44%.

Ohio, Rasmussen Reports 9/23: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.
Ohio, Zogby Interactive Poll 9/9-12: McCain 48%, Obama 44%, Barr 5%.

Michigan, Detroit Free Press by Selzer 9/22-24: Obama 51%, McCain 38%, Barr 1%.
Michigan, Strategic Vision 9/22-24: Obama 48%, McCain 45%.
Michigan, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 47%, McCain 39%.
Michigan, EPIC MRA 9/20-22: Obama 48%, McCain 38%.

North Carolina, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Barr 2%, Nader 1%.
North Carolina, Rasmussen Reports 9/23: Obama 49%, McCain 47%.

New Hampshire, Strategic Vision 9/22-24: Obama 46%, McCain 45%.
New Hampshire, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: McCain 46%, Obama 43%, Barr 4%, Nader 2%.
New Hampshire, National Journal AllState 9/18-22: Obama 44%, McCain 43%.

Virginia, Zogby Interactive 9/9-12: McCain 48%, Obama 43%, Barr 3%.
New Mexico, Zogby Interactive Survey 9/9-12: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, Barr 2%.
West Virginia, Rasmussen Reports 9/24: McCain 50%, Obama 42%.
New York, Survey USA 9/23-24: Obama 57%, McCain 38%.
Massachusetts, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 55%, McCain 39%.
Wisconsin, Research 2000 for WISC TV 9/22-23: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.
Oregon, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.
Maine, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
Delaware, Survey USA 9/22-23: Obama 57%, McCain 37%.

It appears as though Obama is in the process of sealing the deal in Michigan. Pollster has moved it back to Obama's column. McCain has consistently led in Ohio, albeit by a small margin. Pollster has moved West Virginia back into the McCain column; the state's brief flirtation with swing state status was short, indeed.

It appears to me, with all these state pollings, for an Obama win it will involve not only retaining all of John Kerry's 2004 states but just about all of the other states listed above (and some not mentioned) that are usually carried by Republicans, like Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. And ones that truly swing, like Florida and New Mexico as well as bellwethers Nevada and Ohio. With more than a month until Election Day, I feel strongly that West Virginia could make a return from red to blue. And I would keep my eye on Missouri (a.k.a. The Bellwether of the Nation).

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And I would keep my eye on Missouri (a.k.a. The Bellwether of the Nation).

And the new Missouri poll is now out .....


Missouri, Survey USA 9/23-24: McCain 48%, Obama 46%.

and another one from kansascity.com ...

A new St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV poll of 800 likely Missouri voters conducted this week shows the race is about even, with McCain at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent. A week earlier, a similar poll by Maryland-based Research 2000 showed McCain held a 4 percentage point lead; 49 percent favored McCain compared to 45 percent for Obama.


This week's poll, like the earlier one, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Politico has now moved Virginia and New Hampshire into the Obama column. Right now, Obama has 286 electoral votes to McCain's 252.

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And the new Missouri poll is now out .....


Missouri, Survey USA 9/23-24: McCain 48%, Obama 46%.

and another one from kansascity.com ...

Wow, it may turn out to be 1956 all over again for Missouri...

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wow, it may turn out to be 1956 all over again for Missouri...

That was when Missouri broke for the losing candidate, Adlai Stevenson (in his failed rematch with incumbent Dwight Eisenhower).

Missouri has been voting for the winner since 1904 with the exception of 1956. Over the last 25 elections (1908-2004), the Show-Me State has backed the winner 24 times for 96 percent. A smashing record!

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Politico has now moved Virginia and New Hampshire into the Obama column. Right now, Obama has 286 electoral votes to McCain's 252.

Hmmm. I'm curious. Anybody know if it's common for the polls to show a candidate over the magic 270 at this point, only to lose? I mean, is 38 days enough (historically) to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hmmm. I'm curious. Anybody know if it's common for the polls to show a candidate over the magic 270 at this point, only to lose? I mean, is 38 days enough (historically) to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

Anything is possible. If Obama has another "guns and religion" gaffe, if something else shocking comes out about his past that gets all over the media, etc.

He's definitely trending upward right now, but the campaign isn't over and there are still 3 debates left.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Anything is possible. If Obama has another "guns and religion" gaffe, if something else shocking comes out about his past that gets all over the media, etc.

He's definitely trending upward right now, but the campaign isn't over and there are still 3 debates left.

But, at this point? 38 days? Has it happened? Sure, it's "possible." I'm trying to gauge the likelihood.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

But, at this point? 38 days? Has it happened? Sure, it's "possible." I'm trying to gauge the likelihood.

In a race this close, sure it has. Dukakis had a much larger collapse toward the end in 88 than what Obama's would be if he loses.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In a race this close, sure it has. Dukakis had a much larger collapse toward the end in 88 than what Obama's would be if he loses.

My memory may not be what it should be, but I didn't think Dukakis ever had over 270 projected electorals in the polls. Sure there was a meltdown, but I think it started long before this point in the campaign (38 days out).

Again, my question (in case I'm not properly framing it) is: Does anyone know if at this late date in the campaign (38 days) a candidate has had more than enough projected electoral votes (270+) in the polls to win, yet has lost?

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

My memory may not be what it should be, but I didn't think Dukakis ever had over 270 projected electorals in the polls. Sure there was a meltdown, but I think it started long before this point in the campaign (38 days out).

Again, my question (in case I'm not properly framing it) is: Does anyone know if at this late date in the campaign (38 days) a candidate has had more than enough projected electoral votes (270+) in the polls to win, yet has lost?

You're right that the Dukakis meltdown started much earlier.

I don't know the answer to your question, but we're looking at a lot of really close states right now. I think it's comforting to remember that without NH and VA, Obama still has 269. Then it goes to a Democratically controlled House.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Barack Obama will win.

What is involved right now, is that Obama holds all of John Kerry's 2004 states (New Hampshire appears the narrowest points margin). And he returns Iowa and New Mexico (Democratic in 2000, Republican in 2004) to his party's win column. And he adds Colorado (three times Democratic in the past 60 years) and Virginia (two times Democratic in 60 years).

What will be further involved are the bulk of these states polling just Barely Republican—and, to me, this suggests John McCain's struggle in "holding them"—along with the toss-ups. And—quite possibly—we may find some others that we have not been anticipating to come into play.