15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As someone who lives in Iowa, I will tell you why McCain is in Iowa. I dont like to say this but, Obama is taking this state for granted. We are getting bombarded with McCain ads almost every commercial break, but I can count on one hand how many Obama ads I have seen. Obama is seriously taking Iowa for granted and he is making a big mistake. Yes, McCain is against ethanol subsides which will not sit well with a lot of voters here but Obama needs to run more ads. I live in Davenport in the Eastern part of the state, so maybe its just our part of the state that is not getting Obama ad's, I dont know.

I don't doubt that the Obama ads are sparse in Iowa. There are about nineteen states that are polling with narrower margins than that of Iowa, and he's been polling better than McCain consistently throughout the whole campaign.

What I don't understand is why you're seeing McCain ads there at all. Sure, Iowa went to Bush over Kerry, but it was a very narrow margin, and I would think there are more tempting targets for him given the poll numbers.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The hopes of drawing some of Obama's funds and attention to the state, perhaps because Obama's chances aren't that slim in certain 'assumed' Republican states, like here in NC.

Thanks, I forgot about that. Who knows? We might even be able to move Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada into the blue column, too.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=2A89-1

Dick Morris's newest map has some familiar looks to them, as he agrees with me on the three leading bellwethers (Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio) going to the winner. And some other shapings of the map looking like Bill Clinton's Electoral College (c. 1992). Not that I agree with Morris entirely, but well-worth consideration.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The analysis from Dick Morris has me scratching my head. I think he is making a leap of fate that the polls will continue to favor Obama, unless he has some internal polling we aren't privvy to.

And speaking of polls, here's the latest, mainly from Rasmussen ....

Florida, Survey USA 9/27-28: McCain 48%, Obama 47%.
Florida, Rasmussen Reports 9/28: McCain 47%, Obama 47%.

Pennsylvania, Rasmussen Reports 9/28: Obama 50%, McCain 42%.

Ohio, Rasmussen Reports 9/28: McCain 48%, Obama 47%.

North Carolina, Public Policy Polling 9/28-29: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Barr 3%.

Virginia, Rasmussen Reports 9/28: Obama 50%, McCain 47%.

Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University 9/15-27: McCain 48%, Obama 36%.

Colorado, Rasmussen Reports 9/28: Obama 49%, McCain 48%.

These polls have got to send panic throughout the McCain campaign. And I may have to eat some crow if Obama manages to win Florida. The fact that Florida remains this close so late in the race is something I did not expect. McCain should easily be winning in the Sunshine State.

Ohio remains close, but McCain manages to remain out front in most all of the polls here. And that's with the Democratic machine in power in the state.

North Carolina continues to be a pleasant surprise. Obama won the state big in the primaries. His campaign is all over this state and it's turning Blue.

It's looking like Pennsylvania needs to be colored Blue by the various media. I can't figure out why NBC moved it back into Toss Up state status. The word on the street is that Brokaw struck a deal between McCain and NBC. Plus, a close race makes for higher ratings.

Virginia is another state that is close to turning Blue without question. Obama has had the lead here for a long time.

Colorado is a bit tighter in this poll, but Obama has led consistently for a long time.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With NC and VA trending to Obama, CO may not be the deciding state it was looking to be before, which is good because I don't think an Obama win is certain there at this point, although it is trending his way also.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Part of what Dick Morris is doing, I believe, is incorporating not just the polling but in anticipating what may develop in the remaining month leading up to Election Day. That may be why he has Arkansas in blue. And why he has West Virginia in toss-up status.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just one new poll so far today, but it's a doozy .....

Florida, Public Policy Polling 9/27-28: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.

64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and McCain led Obama by six points.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just one new poll so far today, but it's a doozy .....

Florida, Public Policy Polling 9/27-28: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.

RCP is reporting a few more.

Ohio: InAdv/PollPosition McCain 45, Obama 47 Obama +2
Virginia: InAdv/PollPosition Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Arizona: Rasmussen McCain 59, Obama 38 McCain +21
Georgia: SurveyUSA McCain 52, Obama 44 McCain +8
New Jersey: Strategic Vision (R) Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Morning Call Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8

Overall it looks like good news for Obama. I particularly notice the narrowing spread in Georgia and Florida's continuing inconsistency along with the increase in Obama's lead in Virginia and New Jersey. The only place McCain is showing improvement among these states is Arizona.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ That's great news! Thanks for posting that. I'd just do a jig of glee if we can get a couple more polls like that out of Ohio!

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

RCP is reporting a few more.

Ohio: InAdv/PollPosition McCain 45, Obama 47 Obama +2
Virginia: InAdv/PollPosition Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Arizona: Rasmussen McCain 59, Obama 38 McCain +21
Georgia: SurveyUSA McCain 52, Obama 44 McCain +8
New Jersey: Strategic Vision (R) Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Morning Call Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8

Overall it looks like good news for Obama. I particularly notice the narrowing spread in Georgia and Florida's continuing inconsistency along with the increase in Obama's lead in Virginia and New Jersey. The only place McCain is showing improvement among these states is Arizona.

Georgia and North Carolina has taken me in by surprise by far. Obama has been closing the gap in Missouri by crunching McCain's lead by 3 points according to RCP. Florida is coming close to having a slight Obama edge over McCain. Florida is looking good for Obama almost everyday and perhaps two weeks before election day it can be a "Leaning Obama."

The election has its similarities to the 1980 election in which Reagan won the Carter states that he won in 1976 against Ford. Obama is doing the same in these polls that are showing him gaining in the Bush/McCain states. Also, the electoral map is close to turning out to be like it was in 1992 with Clinton winning past 300 electoral votes againt Bush.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just one new poll so far today, but it's a doozy .....

Florida, Public Policy Polling 9/27-28: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.

Whoa.

I read figures like that, and feel a deep sense of relief and hope that McCain will be consigned to the company of Robert Dole.
Then I get depressed, because that means Obama would be winning.

 

[letme]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yeppers Construt JMac was here for 2 days ,or 1 1/2 days.
He was in Cedar Rapids last week,

Why ? The Polls opened on the 25th of this month. BHO is polling 6-9% (?) higher then JMac.

This is a PURPLE STATE and Jmac knows it. Yes only a few Electoral Collage votes but many States have small counts. Many small States HAVE swung elections.

As JustnDav stated , he has angered farmers with anti Bio/ethanol views , We understand his tax plans better BHO's. BHO says go read my views. Jmac calls his out in B/W

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yeppers Construt JMac was here for 2 days ,or 1 1/2 days.
He was in Cedar Rapids last week,

Why ? The Polls opened on the 25th of this month. BHO is polling 6-9% (?) higher then JMac.

I did not realize Iowa had already started voting. Ohio also is starting receiving mail-in ballots either already or very soon.

Speaking of which, we have a new poll for Ohio and a couple of other states from SurveyUSA.

Ohio: McCain 49, Obama 48 McCain +1
Indiana: McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3
New Jersey: Obama 52, Obama 42 Obama +10

I echo Snapcat's previous comment that Ohio is continuing to narrow. I've been rather pleased with the numbers that have been coming in since the debate.

Obama will be in La Crosse, WI, Wednesday and Grand Rapids and Lansing, MI, Thursday.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Georgia and North Carolina has taken me in by surprise by far. Obama has been closing the gap in Missouri by crunching McCain's lead by 3 points according to RCP. Florida is coming close to having a slight Obama edge over McCain. Florida is looking good for Obama almost everyday and perhaps two weeks before election day it can be a "Leaning Obama."

The election has its similarities to the 1980 election in which Reagan won the Carter states that he won in 1976 against Ford. Obama is doing the same in these polls that are showing him gaining in the Bush/McCain states. Also, the electoral map is close to turning out to be like it was in 1992 with Clinton winning past 300 electoral votes againt Bush.

In 1980, Reagan won all of Gerald Ford's 1976 states before adding on the rest that routed Jimmy Carter. A total of 44 states. 489 electoral votes for Reagan. (In that election, Carter's six were: his home state Georgia, vice president Walter Mondale's Minnesota, in addition to Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. As well as District of Columbia.)

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's three from Quinnipiac.

Pennsylvania: Obama 54, McCain 39 Obama +15
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8

And one from Franklin & Marshall.

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 48 Obama +7

Obama appears to be improving his hold substantially in all three of these states.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It's pretty much becoming unmanageable for McCain at this point. He has no chance without FL and OH.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

also, up to almost 350 electoral votes on RCP, and up to almost 250 without any of the toss up states. Obama only needs one more big toss up state in his column to take this.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In 1980, Reagan won all of Gerald Ford's 1976 states before adding on the rest that routed Jimmy Carter. A total of 44 states. 489 electoral votes for Reagan. (In that election, Carter's six were: his home state Georgia, vice president Walter Mondale's Minnesota, in addition to Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. As well as District of Columbia.)

I'm glad you posted this!
Just last night I was sitting here trying to remember what presidents in recent memory have broken the 400 number. I was confident Reagan did, but it's nice to see the figure.
Did Nixon do it?

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

CNN revealed on The Situation Room (Wednesday, Oct. 1, 4 pm ET) latest polling indicates further movement for Barack Obama. Among them: Pennsylvania and Minnesotaa (Democratic strongholds). More profound: Florida, by four. But get this: CNN will be taking Missouri (a.k.a. The Bellwether of the Nation) out of the "Lean McCain" column and into "Toss-up," as Obama polls slightly ahead of John McCain in the Show-Me State.

I stick with my earlier assertion that folks are underestimating the level of success Obama will have in winning the 2008 election. He'll keep all of John Kerry's 2004 states, win back Iowa and New Hampshire, and pass the 270 mark and beyond with a majority of the following: leading bellwethers Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio; Florida; Virginia and Indiana (GOP in all of the last 10 elections); Colorado and Montana; North Carolina and South Carolina; Georgia; West Virginia (won by all Democratic presidents with exception of Woodrow Wilson's tight 1916 re-election). If news gets worse for McCain, he may lose them all…and find himself in danger of losing his home state of Arizona!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...pdate-swing-state-trends-in-obamas-direction/

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Nixon had more than 500 in 1972, as did Reagan in 1984.

Roosevelt once had over 500.

You get results like that when your opponent is not a viable candidate for his respective party.