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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
And we have a new round of polls, and it's a sea of blue ....
Washington, Rasmussen Reports 10/2: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
Nevada, Rasmussen Reports 10/1: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
New Hampshire, St Anselm SRBI 9/25-30: Obama 49%, McCain 37%.
New Hampshire, Rasmussen Reports 10/1: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
And we have a new round of polls, and it's a sea of blue ....
Washington, Rasmussen Reports 10/2: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
Nevada, Rasmussen Reports 10/1: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
New Hampshire, St Anselm SRBI 9/25-30: Obama 49%, McCain 37%.
New Hampshire, Rasmussen Reports 10/1: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
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The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
There's a new Morning Call Tracking poll for 10/03.
Pennsylvania: 51/39 Obama +12
Apparently Morning Call is doing a daily poll with a three-daily rolling report. It helps give a very clear picture of how the race is shaping up there. RCP has even moved PA to solid Obama.
Obama is in Newport News today and Asheville tomorrow.
There's a new Morning Call Tracking poll for 10/03.
Pennsylvania: 51/39 Obama +12
Apparently Morning Call is doing a daily poll with a three-daily rolling report. It helps give a very clear picture of how the race is shaping up there. RCP has even moved PA to solid Obama.
Obama is in Newport News today and Asheville tomorrow.
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I think the only time I've lived somewhere where there wasn't vandalism of yard signs was when I was in Miami -- in a Cuban neighborhood, where everyone had all the same yard signs.
Some of it is just juvenile games, though: my dad's yard signs disappeared once, and he found them in the neighbor's yard -- and the neighbor's yard signs had been moved to the next yard, and so on down the street. And one year, on Halloween, hundreds of yard signs were taken from all over town, and stuck in a massive forest on the court house lawn. Then there was the time in Indiana when hundreds of yard signs were tossed in dumpsters....
I've taken some signs, but they were ones that were up after the law said they were supposed to be gone -- they make great roofing for things like dog houses.
The vandalism is an indicator of just how viscerally polarized our politics has become. I'd be willing to bet whoever is taking my signs isn't a criminal by any stretch of definition - save the obvious one of course
I think the only time I've lived somewhere where there wasn't vandalism of yard signs was when I was in Miami -- in a Cuban neighborhood, where everyone had all the same yard signs.
Some of it is just juvenile games, though: my dad's yard signs disappeared once, and he found them in the neighbor's yard -- and the neighbor's yard signs had been moved to the next yard, and so on down the street. And one year, on Halloween, hundreds of yard signs were taken from all over town, and stuck in a massive forest on the court house lawn. Then there was the time in Indiana when hundreds of yard signs were tossed in dumpsters....
I've taken some signs, but they were ones that were up after the law said they were supposed to be gone -- they make great roofing for things like dog houses.
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The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
This morning's polls are all over the place.
Colorado: Denver Post 9/29-10/1 44/44 Tie
Minnesota: Star Tribune 9/30-10/2 55/37 Obama +18
Ohio: Columbus Dispatch 9/24-10/3 49/42 Obama +7
A look at the graphs shows Colorado narrowing because Obama has been declining while McCain has held steady. Minnesota and Ohio are widening because Obama is rising while McCain is declining.
This morning's polls are all over the place.
Colorado: Denver Post 9/29-10/1 44/44 Tie
Minnesota: Star Tribune 9/30-10/2 55/37 Obama +18
Ohio: Columbus Dispatch 9/24-10/3 49/42 Obama +7
A look at the graphs shows Colorado narrowing because Obama has been declining while McCain has held steady. Minnesota and Ohio are widening because Obama is rising while McCain is declining.
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The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
The daily three-day rolling tracking poll from Pennsylvania is in with Obama +10 (50/40). The recent trend in Pennsylvania has Obama rising and McCain declining.
The daily three-day rolling tracking poll from Pennsylvania is in with Obama +10 (50/40). The recent trend in Pennsylvania has Obama rising and McCain declining.
smelter
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
The McCain campaign must be spending huge amounts of money in Pennsylvania. It seems like every other commercial on television is one of his.
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The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Yes. McCain was already campaigning heavily in PA. Then he has shifted his resources out of Michigan, and some of that went to the PA campaign. I can only imagine what TV must be like up there. Texas is such a safe Republican state that very little national money gets spent here.
Yes. McCain was already campaigning heavily in PA. Then he has shifted his resources out of Michigan, and some of that went to the PA campaign. I can only imagine what TV must be like up there. Texas is such a safe Republican state that very little national money gets spent here.
spearsfan20
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Texas is never turning blue. If half of Texas's population are not single-minded Bush voters that vote on religion and big business, Texas will be fluctuating back and forth between Obama and McCain. I must assume that Arizona is staying 'Safely Republican' as well. It would be nice if Arizona gets thrown in Obama's favor the way Bush took Tennessee from Al Gore in 2000. That would be a slap in the face to McCain.
Texas is never turning blue. If half of Texas's population are not single-minded Bush voters that vote on religion and big business, Texas will be fluctuating back and forth between Obama and McCain. I must assume that Arizona is staying 'Safely Republican' as well. It would be nice if Arizona gets thrown in Obama's favor the way Bush took Tennessee from Al Gore in 2000. That would be a slap in the face to McCain.
MystikWizard
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Texas actually has gone Blue before, but it was before a lot of us on here were actually alive.
1976- when they voted for Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford.
1968- when they voted for Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon.
But you are right, in that I don't see Texas going Blue for quite a while, and it obviously won't this election. It will probably take at least another 2 more Election cycles after this one.
Texas actually has gone Blue before, but it was before a lot of us on here were actually alive.
1976- when they voted for Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford.
1968- when they voted for Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon.
But you are right, in that I don't see Texas going Blue for quite a while, and it obviously won't this election. It will probably take at least another 2 more Election cycles after this one.
TX-Beau
FEAR THE LIBERAL DETENTE!
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Texas turns on the hispanic population. The more of them the more likely the state goes blue, and there are a whole lot of them and they're growing fast.
I'm of the opinion that had Obama hit hard at that demographic, he'd have pulled all the black vote, and enough of the rest of us to turn Texas this time.
Texas turns on the hispanic population. The more of them the more likely the state goes blue, and there are a whole lot of them and they're growing fast.
I'm of the opinion that had Obama hit hard at that demographic, he'd have pulled all the black vote, and enough of the rest of us to turn Texas this time.
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The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Speaking of which, there's new polls from Georgia and four other states.
Georgia: Research 2000 50/43 McCain +7
New Hampshire: Survey USA 53/40 Obama +13
New Mexico: Albuquerque Journal 45/40 Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Morning Call 49/38 Obama +11
Virginia: Suffolk 51/39 Obama +12
Virginia: Survey USA 53/43 Obama +10
The Georgia and New Mexico polls were taken before the V-P debate. The New Hampshire and Virginia polls were taken after the debate. Pennsylvania's poll straddled the debate.
RCP has moved Georgia from solid to leaning McCain.
We're seeing general movement toward Obama and away from McCain in all these states.
Speaking of which, there's new polls from Georgia and four other states.
Georgia: Research 2000 50/43 McCain +7
New Hampshire: Survey USA 53/40 Obama +13
New Mexico: Albuquerque Journal 45/40 Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Morning Call 49/38 Obama +11
Virginia: Suffolk 51/39 Obama +12
Virginia: Survey USA 53/43 Obama +10
The Georgia and New Mexico polls were taken before the V-P debate. The New Hampshire and Virginia polls were taken after the debate. Pennsylvania's poll straddled the debate.
RCP has moved Georgia from solid to leaning McCain.
We're seeing general movement toward Obama and away from McCain in all these states.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Prediction: Missouri will vote Obama
Looking at maps of the past from 270toWin.com—and considering the period since 1856 with Republicans vs. Democrats as the two-party leading election contenders—here is an important fact worth sharing.…
Every Democratic president won Missouri.
In a previous posting, I mentioned that no president won his election while losing all three leading bellwethers. (Nevada and Ohio are the other two. Nev. joined the union in 1864, eight years after Republicans and Democrats first squared off.)
The Show-Me State has backed all Democratic presidential winners [1856…], and the list is right here…
• 1856: James Madison
• 1884: Grover Cleveland
• 1892: Grover Cleveland
• 1912: Woodrow Wilson
• 1916: Woodrow Wilson
• 1932: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1936: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1940: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1944: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1948: Harry Truman (obviously!)
• 1960: John Kennedy
• 1964: Lyndon Johnson
• 1976: Jimmy Carter
• 1992: Bill Clinton
• 1996: Bill Clinton
At Nate Silver's site, FiveThirtyEight.com, he has the [Oct. 6] projection [on Mo.]:
John McCain, 49.7 | Barack Obama, 49.3 (0.4 percent difference).
Sammie13 told me, maybe a month ago or so, he believes McCain will win The Bellwether of the Nation. But this little piece of history has me optimistic that Obama will prevail in his neighboring state.
With Nev. and Ohio polling these days rather decisively for Obama, it's Mo. that appears as last willing to bite (CNN/Time has Obama leading by 1, Sept. 28-30). I'd like to end this with a favorite quote that appears at wikipedia.org: "Slate columnist Chris Suellentrop has said that [Missouri] 'isn't so much a bellwether as it is a weathervane: It doesn't swing the country, the country swings it…'"
Sources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether
http://www.270towin.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Prediction: Missouri will vote Obama
Looking at maps of the past from 270toWin.com—and considering the period since 1856 with Republicans vs. Democrats as the two-party leading election contenders—here is an important fact worth sharing.…
Every Democratic president won Missouri.
In a previous posting, I mentioned that no president won his election while losing all three leading bellwethers. (Nevada and Ohio are the other two. Nev. joined the union in 1864, eight years after Republicans and Democrats first squared off.)
The Show-Me State has backed all Democratic presidential winners [1856…], and the list is right here…
• 1856: James Madison
• 1884: Grover Cleveland
• 1892: Grover Cleveland
• 1912: Woodrow Wilson
• 1916: Woodrow Wilson
• 1932: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1936: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1940: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1944: Franklin Roosevelt
• 1948: Harry Truman (obviously!)
• 1960: John Kennedy
• 1964: Lyndon Johnson
• 1976: Jimmy Carter
• 1992: Bill Clinton
• 1996: Bill Clinton
At Nate Silver's site, FiveThirtyEight.com, he has the [Oct. 6] projection [on Mo.]:
John McCain, 49.7 | Barack Obama, 49.3 (0.4 percent difference).
Sammie13 told me, maybe a month ago or so, he believes McCain will win The Bellwether of the Nation. But this little piece of history has me optimistic that Obama will prevail in his neighboring state.
With Nev. and Ohio polling these days rather decisively for Obama, it's Mo. that appears as last willing to bite (CNN/Time has Obama leading by 1, Sept. 28-30). I'd like to end this with a favorite quote that appears at wikipedia.org: "Slate columnist Chris Suellentrop has said that [Missouri] 'isn't so much a bellwether as it is a weathervane: It doesn't swing the country, the country swings it…'"
Sources
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether
http://www.270towin.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
construct
The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I also am eager for a new Missouri poll, but while we're waiting we have a new post-debate poll out of North Carolina showing Obama +6 (44/50). It's a PPP poll with the spread wider than a week ago by four points.
Edit to add five new Rasmussen polls:
Colorado: 51/45 Obama +6
Florida: 52/45 Obama +7
Missouri: 50/47 Obama +3
Ohio: 47/48 McCain +1
Virginia: 50/48 Obama +2
These are all post-debate polls.
I also am eager for a new Missouri poll, but while we're waiting we have a new post-debate poll out of North Carolina showing Obama +6 (44/50). It's a PPP poll with the spread wider than a week ago by four points.
Edit to add five new Rasmussen polls:
Colorado: 51/45 Obama +6
Florida: 52/45 Obama +7
Missouri: 50/47 Obama +3
Ohio: 47/48 McCain +1
Virginia: 50/48 Obama +2
These are all post-debate polls.
construct
The boy next door
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Yes, that's right. A week ago Rasussen polled Florida at a tie.
Even more exciting is the Missouri poll which caused RCP to shift it from red to blue on its "no toss-up" map.
Yes, that's right. A week ago Rasussen polled Florida at a tie.
Even more exciting is the Missouri poll which caused RCP to shift it from red to blue on its "no toss-up" map.
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I think that it will all come down to Colorado with its 9 electoral votes that could decide the election
I think that it will all come down to Colorado with its 9 electoral votes that could decide the election
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I've dismissed Rasmussen Reports' polling on Ohio.
Every Ohio poll pitting McCain-vs.-Obama, in Election 2008, from Rasmussen Reports has had McCain up—while other sources have presented other results.
It is my suspicion that Rasmussen Reports is conscious of the fact that no Republican president has ever won without Ohio—and Rasmussen, despite claiming to be independent, wants McCain to win. (Yes, I don't enjoy hurling that accusation. But take a look at other polling results, throughout election season and at below link, from Wikipedia.org on the state of Ohio.)
My suggestion: Adjust two points to Rasmussen Reports' polling on Ohio. (Add three or four, if you'd like.)
Source on Ohio polling (you'll have to scroll down some):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008
I've dismissed Rasmussen Reports' polling on Ohio.
Every Ohio poll pitting McCain-vs.-Obama, in Election 2008, from Rasmussen Reports has had McCain up—while other sources have presented other results.
It is my suspicion that Rasmussen Reports is conscious of the fact that no Republican president has ever won without Ohio—and Rasmussen, despite claiming to be independent, wants McCain to win. (Yes, I don't enjoy hurling that accusation. But take a look at other polling results, throughout election season and at below link, from Wikipedia.org on the state of Ohio.)
My suggestion: Adjust two points to Rasmussen Reports' polling on Ohio. (Add three or four, if you'd like.)
Source on Ohio polling (you'll have to scroll down some):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008