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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

hotatlboi said:
RCP has moved Virginia into the "Leaning Obama" camp, which means Obama can lose all the remaining toss up states and still win. :)
Click to expand...

And I might add a corollary. We have reached a point where the Bradley effect may no longer be significant.

Of course, everything can change.

Edit to add: Notice that Pollster is now listing Obama with 320 solid and leaning electoral votes.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Pollster has now moved West Virginia back into the toss up column. This now makes 3 toss up states: Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I miss not having Tim Russert predict the outcome. He was pretty good at it.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat said:
Pollster has now moved West Virginia back into the toss up column. This now makes 3 toss up states: Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.
Click to expand...

8 Toss Up States on Real Clear Politics:

Indiana
Nevada
Ohio
Florida
Missouri
Colorado
North Carolina
West Virginia

and Virginia is now leaning Obama.

McCain MUST win ALL OF THE ABOVE states, including Virginia, to win.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Today's new polls, so far ...


Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision 10/5-7: Obama 54%, McCain 40%.

Georgia, Strategic Vision 10/5-7: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, Barr 2%.

Virginia, Public Policy Polling 10/6-7: Obama 51%, McCain 43%.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

cocktales said:

It seems that "now" the pendulum is swinging toward the McCain Camp because of all the military retirees in the state who want to have a Commander-In-Chief with some military experience.
Click to expand...


If those military people only knew the truth -- like the fact that McCain actually did sign a confession for the North Vietnamese, and gave them military information... and that credible military leaders judge him too volatile to be CIC.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some new polls ...

Florida, Strategic Vision 10/6-8: Obama 52%, McCain 44%.

Ohio, Strategic Vision 10/6-8: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Wisconsin, Research 2000 for WISC TV 10/5-6: Obama 51%, McCain 41%.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New poll from Georgia 10/7-10/9, McCain only leads by 3%. :)

I can't believe it's gotten that close.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I would love to see that scum Saxby Chambliss go down also.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kulindahr said:
I have no idea where Obama is going to take us, but I am starting to feel safe from the police-state fan McCain.
Click to expand...

Anything is better than what we've experienced these past 7 years, since 9/11. I know the Far Right is complaining about the U.S. being turned into a Communist Country. But it's obvious that given the state of the Economy and the fact that we've been in Iraq since '03, Bin Laden hasn't been caught (likely dead, but I would like it confirmed), we need major changes to the way we operate as a nation.

On a hypothetical note on Foreign Policy, let's say Israel panics over concerns with it's Nuclear Program and attacks Iran. And the two countries become engulfed in a War. At this point in time, how would the country, as a whole, react ... especially after a War in Iraq and a War in Afghanistan ... if a President Obama decides that it is not in the National Security interests of the United States to intervene on their behalf? The Far Right would be livid, but I wonder how the rest of the country would react?
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If Israel starts the war, I'm not sure it's on us to assist them.

If they are attacked, then sure.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Quick question: could someone explain the difference between North Carolina and South Carolina demographic???Why one is battleground state and the other one is fully red state???:confused:
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

future_boy said:
Quick question: could someone explain the difference between North Carolina and South Carolina demographic???Why one is battleground state and the other one is fully red state???:confused:
Click to expand...

North Carolina is very different from South Carolina in two main aspects:

1) The tech boom in the Golden Triangle area has meant an influx of out of state people moving into the area for high paying jobs.

2) Charlotte is a banking center, home of Wachovia, and is especially sensitive of the current economy.

North Carolina was one of the very few states largely untouched by the housing bubble bursting. Both states have a large African American population.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat said:
North Dakota – 3 EV
Survey USA, 3/6/08, Obama: 46.0 / McCain: 42.0
Sparse polling from North Dakota; we definitely need some new numbers here. If Obama wins here he will be the next president. Advantage: Toss-Up
Click to expand...

I just had to go back and quote this opening post from June. At the time, I was convinced that Obama had a shot in North Dakota. And just today, Pollster has moved North Dakota back into the toss up column. Plus a new poll finds Obama actually leading in North Dakota.

I absolutely believe that if Obama wins North Dakota, it will be a landslide election. A Democrat has only won in North Dakota 3 times since 1916, the last time being Johnson in 1964.

We are all witnesses to a period of time that historians and future journalists will refer to often. Just soak that in ....

Today's new polls .....

North Dakota, Forum Poll MSUM 10/6-8: Obama 45%, McCain 43%.

Missouri, Survey USA 10/11-12: Obama 51%, McCain 43%.

Ohio, Marist Poll 10/5-8: Obama 49%, McCain 45%.
Ohio, University of Cincinnati Institute Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/4-8: McCain 48%, Obama 46%.

Pennsylvania, Marist Poll 10/5-8: Obama 53%, McCain 41%.

Nevada, Mason Dixon for Las Vegas Review Journal 10/8-9: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

Colorado, Public Policy Polling 10/8-10: Obama 52%, McCain 42%.

California, Rasmussen Reports 10/9: Obama 56%, McCain 40%.

Iowa, Survey USA 10/8-9: Obama 54%, McCain 41%.

Alabama, Survey USA 10/8-9: McCain 62%, Obama 35%.

North Carolina, WSOC TV 10/6-7: McCain 48%, Obama 46%.

Florida, Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel 10/6-8: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I actually think we seem to have a better chance in Florida this year than Ohio.

I think the following Battlegrounds are going to go to McCain:

Ohio
North Carolina
West Virginia
Missouri

We need to pray we can take Virginia. Even though it is "leaning" Obama, I was told that the McCain campaign is reporting a Sarah Palin event held there today which drew 20,000 people. That is extremely impressive, and it goes to show that Palin is the one who is motivating the GOP base, more than anything.

I am gritting my teeth over Virginia and Florida. I'm not comfortable at just a +5 lead in Florida since we all remember how 2000 turned out. If we are going to take Florida, we have to probably look at least at a +8 point lead to be sure. But Colorado will give it to us, as well. As long as we maintain at least a +7/8 point lead there, we should be in good shape with this state.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

No to Ohio. No to Missouri.

Historically, no Republican has ever won the election without Ohio.

And ever since Republicans and Democrats first battled in Election 1856, every Democratic winner carried Missouri.

Stay tuned with West Virginia, historically on winning Democrats' side (except for Woodrow Wilson's 1916 re-election, which he barely won, 277-254, over Republican challenger Charles Hughes).

And North Carolina is one of the prime real estates Obama may get from the South. The South isn't as closed off as one may think; none of the four presidential and vice presidential candidates are from that area.


By the way, here is the Oct. 13, 2008 Dick Morris Maps 2008:
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s...mo_code=6BD7-1

About Morris' map: I think he's carried away with a few "Republican bastions" … but if he's find discouraging numbers for McCain, and encouraging ones for Obam … well, I'm more than encouraged. I, for one, would like to see a sea of blue in all the Atlantic states (in addition to battlegrounds).
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think Dick Morris may have had one too many mai tai's before making that map.

And I guess that one could argue that Delaware is south of the Mason-Dixon Line, although I'm not the one to argue that point.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Deleware is south of the Mason-Dixon Line. It had split loyalties (as did Maryland) during the Civil War.

There was once a lot of KKK activity in downstate Deleware and Maryland.
 
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