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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

josher said:
Deleware is south of the Mason-Dixon Line. It had split loyalties (as did Maryland) during the Civil War.

There was once a lot of KKK activity in downstate Deleware and Maryland.
Click to expand...
There still is KKK activity in Cecil County, MD, which spills over into western New Castle County, DE. They're mostly a joke, but they're still there.

And on the campus of UD, you'll see loads of low-rider pickups with horns that play "Dixie" and confederate flags in the windows cruising around the streets on weekend evenings.

As for NC, voter registration is at an all-time high, and Democrats are rgistering in much higher numbers than Republicans, especially in the Triangle. Obama can still close the two-point gap between now and the fourth.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a look at recent polls ....

Florida, CNN/TIME 10/11-14: Obama 51%, McCain 46%.
Florida, Insider Advantage 10/13: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.
Florida, Rasmussen Reports for FOX News 10/12: Obama 51%, McCain 46%.
Florida, Datamar 10/13: Obama 47%, McCain 42%

Georgia, CNN/TIME 10/11-14: McCain 53%, Obama 45%.
Georgia, Survey USA 10/11-12: McCain 51%, Obama 43%.

North Carolina, Insider Advantage 10/13: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
North Carolina, Rasmussen Reports for FOX News 10/12: McCain 48%, Obama 48%.

Virginia, CNN/TIME 10/11-14: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
Virginia, Rasmussen Reports for FOX News 10/12: Obama 50%, McCain 47%.

Missouri, CNN/TIME 10/11-14: McCain 49%, Obama 48%.
Missouri, Rasmussen Reports for FOX News 10/12: Obama 50%, McCain 47%.
Missouri, Survey USA 10/11-12: Obama 51%, McCain 43%.

Washington, Survey USA 10/12-13: Obama 56%, McCain 40%.

Colorado, CNN/TIME 10/11-14: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Colorado, Suffolk University 10/10-13: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
Colorado, Quinnipiac WSJ WP 10/8-12: Obama 52%, McCain 43%.

South Carolina, Survey USA 10/12-13: McCain 55%, Obama 41%.

New Mexico, Survey USA 10/12-13: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
New Mexico, Rasmussen 10/13: Obama 55%, McCain 42%

Nevada, Insider Advantage 10/13: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.

West Virginia, Insider Advantage 10/13: McCain 49%, Obama 47%.

Delaware, Rasmussen Reports 10/10: Obama 56%, McCain 41%.

Pennsylvania, Survey USA 10/11-13: Obama 55%, McCain 40%.
Pennsylvania, Marist Poll 10/5-8: Obama 53%, McCain 41%.
Pennsylvania, Morning Call: 10/13: Obama 52%, McCain 38%

Ohio, Survey USA 10/12-13: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
Ohio, Rasmussen Reports for FOX News 10/12: Obama 49%, McCain 47%.
Ohio, Marist Poll 10/5-8: Obama 49%, McCain 45%.

Michigan, Quinnipiac WSJ WP 10/8-12: Obama 54%, McCain 38%.

New Jersey, Survey USA 10/11-12: Obama 55%, McCain 40%.

Minnesota, Quinnipiac WSJ WP 10/8-12: Obama 51%, McCain 40%.

Wisconsin, Quinnipiac WSJ WP 10/8-12: Obama 54%, McCain 37%.

Oregon, Survey USA 10/11-12: Obama 57%, McCain 40%.

North Dakota, Forum Poll MSUM 10/6-8: Obama 45%, McCain 43%.

Illinois, Rasmussen 10/13: Obama 56%, McCain 39%

Kansas, Rasmussen 10/13: McCain 54%, Obama 41%

Massachusetts, Rasmussen 10/13: Obama 62%, McCain 34%



The West Virginia polling is worth taking a look at.

Pollster has now moved Virginia into the Obama column. That leaves 6 battleground states: Nevada, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina - all Bush states. The aggregate polling favors Obama in Nevada and North Carolina.

Some sources indicate that Arkansas may be in play, while others strongly suggest West Virginia and Missouri breaking for Obama.

At any rate, this is a lot more fun here than in 2004. I wish some of those old threads from the last presidential election had been preserved here.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^Has there been any recent polls coming out of Arkansas, I've been hearing that is may be in play, but haven't seen any news to back this up.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ I haven't seen any, although several sources have mentioned internal polling to back up their claim. I've no idea how accurate that would be.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http:www.fivethirtyeight.com has Arkansas in play. And West Virginia just slightly for Obama. Indiana just slightly for McCain. (Between W.Va. and Ind., it was the opposite a day ago.)

We have 19 days until the vote. If people are, as a I suspect, breaking for Obama, I believe a trend that Dick Morris pretty much hints at with his map (http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s...mo_code=6BD7-1), may take effect. It doesn't mean to the Morris-suggested effect; but Ark. is not out of the question. North Dakota, now considered in play (slightly McCain), as well. Let's keep an eye on what may develop. (I know we will.)
 
15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I live in the central part of Florida, which extends from the Orlando area on the east, west toward Tampa and all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and St Petersburg. It is often called the I-4 corridor, as interstate 4 crosses from Tampa Bay to the Atlantic Ocean.
This is always considered the "swing" part of the state. Like the rest of the state the demographic changes have been gradual, that is from mostly conservative to more moderate and centrist. A lot of people continue to move here from the Mid West and East Coast bringing both moderate and liberal views, along with other new comers who are conservative. But overall, there has been a slight shift to the center from the right.
Many observors of our state feel that as the "I4 corridor goes, so goes the state of Florida". Polls of just our local area (Tampa / St Pete) show Obama running ahead of what John Kerry did in 2004 and ahead of Al Gore's slight win in this area in 2000. I hear several of my moderate Republican neighbors who voted twice for George Bush, say that they will vote for Obama. Certainly not all, but several. I have yet to hear a Kerry voter say s/he is voting for Sen McCain.
This would seem to support the overall state polls that contine to show Sen Obama ahead of Sen McCain by about 4 - 6 points.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

gc64s1 said:
Whoo hoo!! Missouri is not going to McCain! I live in Kansas City, MO and will be proud when Obama takes my swing state!! I am disappointed with Kansas but not surprised. I work off of the state line between KC and MO and it's quite surreal what I see and hear when I just walk between the two states.
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I hope you're right, but I fear Missouri is going to go to McCain when it's all said and the dust settles. Between this state and North Carolina, these 2 states will probably be the tightest 2 contests in the election.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've mentioned plenty the three leading bellwethers: Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio.

The last three party pickup presidents winning on a terrible economy: Franklin Rooselvelt (1932), Ronald Reagan (1980), and Bill Clinton (1992).

All three won not only Missouri (which has backed all Democratic winners like Ohio has Republicans), but all three bellwethers as well.

The last two party pickup presidents winning on an unpopular war: Dwight Eisenhower (1952) and Richard Nixon (1968). They, too, won all three.

Barack Obama will be a party pickup president who will carry all three bellwethers.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've reached overload point: I don't care about numbers any more. I look at the polls, and they're just marks on a page.

I want this over.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

CoolBlue71 said:
I've mentioned plenty the three leading bellwethers: Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio.

The last three party pickup presidents winning on a terrible economy: Franklin Rooselvelt (1932), Ronald Reagan (1980), and Bill Clinton (1992).

All three won not only Missouri (which has backed all Democratic winners like Ohio has Republicans), but all three bellwethers as well.

The last two party pickup presidents winning on an unpopular war: Dwight Eisenhower (1952) and Richard Nixon (1968). They, too, won all three.

Barack Obama will be a party pickup president who will carry all three bellwethers.
Click to expand...

Possibly, but he doesn't need all 3 to win considering he has both of those things going for him.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

When you include the racism factor, I have doubts that Obama will win MO.

Any state where he's leading by less than 8 - 10 points is a toss-up state to me.

Sad, but I do believe, true.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

josher said:
When you include the racism factor, I have doubts that Obama will win MO.

Any state where he's leading by less than 8 - 10 points is a toss-up state to me.

Sad, but I do believe, true.
Click to expand...

The good news then is that if you only take states where he currently leads by an average of over 8 points, that still gives him 277 electoral votes.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

hotatlboi said:
Possibly, but he doesn't need all 3 to win considering he has both of those things going for him.
Click to expand...

What I'm talking about is the history and what will likely take shape in Election 2008. I'm not talking mathematics. Obama won't be prevailing like George W. Bush (you know, less than 300).
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

josher said:
When you include the racism factor, I have doubts that Obama will win MO.

Any state where he's leading by less than 8 - 10 points is a toss-up state to me.

Sad, but I do believe, true.
Click to expand...

The operative word is believe.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub.../election_2008_missouri_presidential_election


Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election
Missouri: Obama 52% McCain 46%

Rasmussen Reports | Friday, Oct. 17, 2008

"Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Missouri to six percentage points.

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain is supported by 46%. Earlier this week, Obama was on top 50% to 47%.…"



Prediction: The Show-Me State will be going for the winner of this year's presidential election. I know folks here are uncertain, or truly believe John McCain will win it. But the trend is toward Barack Obama. And his neighboring Missouri will back him.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

gc64s1 said:
Whoo hoo!! Missouri is not going to McCain! I live in Kansas City, MO and will be proud when Obama takes my swing state!! I am disappointed with Kansas but not surprised. I work off of the state line between KC and MO and it's quite surreal what I see and hear when I just walk between the two states.
Click to expand...

I might have to take that back, gc. Looks like Missouri may be going Blue after all.

I think at this point I am looking at a 349 vs 189 win for Obama--

With the Democrats taking:

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Colorado
Missouri
Nevada

Republicans taking:

Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oct. 17, 2008 | Rasmussen Reports' latest pollings…

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub.../election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

Election 2008: Colorado Presidential Election
Obama 52%, McCain 45% in Colorado

"Barack Obama has inched further ahead of John McCain in the battleground state of Colorado where he now leads 52% to 45%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

"Last week Obama led McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. One month earlier, McCain was ahead by two.

"Obama is supported by 93% of the state’s Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of GOP voters and six percent (6%) of Democrats support McCain. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters by 17 points.

"McCain has lost ground among men voters, who now support Obama 49% to 47%. The Democrat leads among women by 11 points.

"Colorado was carried by the Republican candidates in the last three presidential elections.…"


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...da/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election
Election 2008: Nevada Presidential Election
Nevada: Obama By Five

"In Nevada, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain, the economic rescue plan is wildly unpopular, and voters are evenly divided on whether you can win the White House without criticizing your opponent.

"The Democratic candidate now leads by five percentage points, 50% to 45%. At the beginning of October, Obama was ahead by four points, his first lead in the state since July.

"Obama is viewed favorably by 53% of the state’s voters, McCain by 52%. Obama’s ratings are unchanged from the previous survey while McCain's are down two points.…"


According to other information I've come across, CNN had a report today that Arapahoe County, with Littleton its county seat, is the most pivotal county in which Colorado will be determined as to which candidate carries the state. And a couple days back, I came across a report that Washoe Country, with Reno its county seat, is one in which Obama has made such inroads that he can successfully turn Nevada from red to blue.

These battleground steads have been polling steadily toward Obama.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's the latest polling ....

Florida, Research 2000 for Sun Sentinel 10/13-15: Obama 49%, McCain 45%.
Florida, Survey USA 10/16: McCain 49%, Obama 47%.

Georgia, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 49%, Obama 43%.

Missouri, Rasmussen Reports 10/15: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

North Dakota, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 45%, Obama 45%.

New York, Rasmussen Reports 10/14: Obama 57%, McCain 37%.

Ohio, Rasmussen Reports 10/14: McCain 49%, Obama 49%.

Virginia, Christopher Newport University 10/11-14: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.

Massachusetts, Survey USA 10/13-14: Obama 59%, McCain 35%.

Connecticut, Rasmussen Reports 10/14: Obama 56%, McCain 39%.

Oregon, Rasmussen Reports 10/14: Obama 54%, McCain 41%.

I don't think Survey USA has had Obama ahead in Florida yet, even though other polls show him ahead. Not sure what to think about that. Ohio is tightening. Pollster has moved it back into the toss up column. Friday's Supreme Court decision should help the Democrats, though. North Dakota remains a conundrum. What few polls there have been indicate it is very competitive again. If McCain loses North Dakota it will be a tidal wave.
 
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