15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You're welcome, Sammie13!

…Take Ind. as an example. Over the last 75 years it has voted Democratic only three times: 1932, 1936, and 1964. The 1932 vote for Franklin Roosevelt and 1964 one for Lyndon Johnson were unusual. With 1932, it was the Great Depression. With 1964, it was the mourning of the Nov. 22, 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy. In that election, all those Republican states in the above two paragraphs, voted for Johnson. It's the only year Alaska, first having voted in Election 1960, ever went Democratic. In other words: special circumstances! And special circumstances for Ind. And it's that way for N.D. as well (identical record to Ind., its last three Democratic votes were also in 1932, 1936, and 1944).… [/quote]

Revision: North Dakota's third Democratic vote was in 1964. But, once again, it's identical in record over the last 75 years to Indiana's vote. (It was an accidental typo.)

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Compared with what that map looked like in 2000 and 2004, it's looking almost like a pendulum.

The battlegrounds (according to most sources lately):

Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20)—no surprise the three leading bellwethers are at it again in determining an election's winner.

Florida (27)—as part of that Fla./Georgia combo about which I've noticed as a pattern for Democratic winners.

West Virginia (5)—with an established pattern of being Democratic-friendly even in years its candidates lose decisively (Jimmy Carter, in 1980; Michael Dukakis, 1988), it has backed all individual Democratic presidents (sans Woodrow Wilson, who won W.Va. in 1912, in his 1916 re-election).

And then the states that routinely favor Repubicans…

Colorado (9)—only three times Democratic over the last 60 years

North Carolina (15)—which last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter (who, in 1976, won primarily through the south)

Virginia (13)—only twice Democratic since 1948

Indiana (11) and North Dakota (3)—identical since 1932, three times Democratic (and only in special circumstances)


Hey, let's consider this. The top 15 states in the union. The ones in blue are Safe DEM. The ones in red are Safe GOP. The ones in purple are the battlegrounds—and John McCain must defend them. The ones in gray are not battlegrounds but have the potential to be swept in a prevailing wind favoring Obama. Meaning, if Barack Obama wins any, or most, or all, of them, geesh—it will end up looking ugly! So let's add up the electoral votes…
1) California (55)
2) Texas (34)
3) New York (31)
4) Florida (27)
5) *Illinois (21)
6) Pennsylvania (21)
7) Ohio (20)
8) Michigan (17)
9) New Jersey (15)
10) Georgia (15)
11) North Carolina (15)
12) Virginia (13)
13) Massachusetts (12)
14) Indiana (11)
15) Washington (11)

Electoral Votes: 318

Take away Texas for Obama: 284

Take away Georgia for Obama: 269

[Already, if that's the only two states in the Top 15 John McCain wins, a tie in the Electoral College]

Take away for Indiana for Obama: 258

Take away North Carolina for Obama: 243

Consider…Obama will win all of the remaining five in New England: Connecticut (7), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3). That adds up to: 22

Consider…Obama will return Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5)—the only two states that voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and Republican President George W. Bush in 2004—to the Democrats' column. That adds up to: 12

Let us not forget these that 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry carried in 2004: Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Wisconsin (10). And, yes, District of Columbia (3). That adds up: 47

All in all, folks: It's very difficult for John McCain to win. He has to run the table with them battlegrounds. Battlegrounds which, for the most part, Obama polls ahead of McCain. He can do that if he is winning over The People. Which doesn't seem the case!

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

North Carolina (15)—which last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter (who, in 1976, won primarily through the south)

Correcting myself…

Indiana and North Dakota have voted identically since 1920 (voting Democratic only three times: 1932, 1936, and 1964). South Dakota has been involved, as the three have voted identically since 1920. And Ind. and S.D. have agreed since 1916.

I bring this up for one reason: If Obama wins in epic fashion, meaning something a wipeout, and Indiana goes for Obama…well, we should prepare for the Dakotas to potentially agree and reject the Republican brand as well.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

All right. Barring anything unusual happening between now and Election time, I think I am ready to make my final predictions.

302 Obama vs 236 McCain


Obama takes:

Virginia
Colorado
Missouri
Nevada


McCain takes:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia

Poll numbers just aren't high enough for Ohio or Florida to give me any degree of confidence with either one of those states. I'd rather assume now we are going to lose them.

Thank goodness for Virginia and Colorado, which appear to be safe.

Nevada and Missouri, however, will be more nail-biting than Virginia and Colorado.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not ready to make my final predictions yet, but I am not so confident about Missouri. And my confidence is much higher for Obama taking Florida.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/

The latest Dick Morris forecast has me wondering what he's thinking with Tennessee. But since I believe he's comparing 2008 GOP brand with that of 2004…it has had me thinking of further damage that may be done in the electoral map. Anyway, Morris has a McCain preference, and he believes maverick is making a comeback (or wishing for him to do so). I think that Obama will win by about five points. Closer to ten if a sweep of some sort takes shape. In which case, previous weeks' Morris Maps was detecting in which states that may be reflected. Those are ones I'd like to see materialize once the vote has been tabulated on Election Day.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Missouri almost ALWAYS votes for the candidate to win. The state has rarely gotten it wrong. Missouri will go to Obama mark my words. Everyone I talk to no matter their party are gunning for him and I talk to alot of people. People like to talk talk talk to you when you're whipping them up a latte or cappuccino (I love my job.)

If Missouri doesn't go to Obama, I promise to eat nothing but liver for 3 days. And I must be very confident because eating liver at all will be death by disgust. Bleh.

My post (#795) may interest you. (If you haven't already read it.)

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/

The latest Dick Morris forecast has me wondering what he's thinking with Tennessee. But since I believe he's comparing 2008 GOP brand with that of 2004…it has had me thinking of further damage that may be done in the electoral map. Anyway, Morris has a McCain preference, and he believes maverick is making a comeback (or wishing for him to do so). I think that Obama will win by about five points. Closer to ten if a sweep of some sort takes shape. In which case, previous weeks' Morris Maps was detecting in which states that may be reflected. Those are ones I'd like to see materialize once the vote has been tabulated on Election Day.

Thanks, cool, for the Missouri explanation. That is simply a state that perplexes me, but I guess it's a state that is more reflective of the national pulse than an actual trendsetter state. In regards to that idiot Morriss, who knows what his agenda is...but I'm sure he has one...maybe to make the Dems overconfident and to fire up the GOP...who the hell knows. But, I have seen no data to show Obama winning in West Virginia (in fact, the state has two new polls showing him behind around 6 points) and definitely not Tennessee where Obama trails by a mile.

Oh, and Mr. Undecided, Sammie13, went and voted today. Yes sir, Mr Independent did the advanced voting thing for the first time in his life this morning. Still, there was a 20 minute wait despite this being the 3rd week of advanced voting. It certainly looked like an Obama crowd at the voting locale, but who knows. But, I voted for Obama, despite my many reservations about him.

Now, on to the predictions version 18.0. I reserve the right to amend since McCain has been closing the gap some lately...he seems to have traction with the socialism, wealth redistribution, and Joe messages. Today, I got beat over the head by my dentists and his staff for voting for the damned socialist Muslim, Obama....seriously, they went off on me about voting for him! So, my prediction:

Obama -- 318
McCain -- 220

I gave Obama the western block of NM, CO, and NV. Plus, I gave him VA and all of the NE. Plus, I actually handed him Florida. However, I tossed McCain Missouri (where he leads in 2/4 of the newest MO polls), Ohio, Indiana, NC, MT, ND, WV and all of the South. With Ohio and Florida big states that are so close, I decided to split them between the 2 candidates.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

OK, now I really have to spend some time making my final predictions. But whatever will we talk about once we do that?

LOL!

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I also think he'll take Florida. So many seniors and military folks down there that are leery of good ol' McCain. The fact that it is close at all speaks volumes.

You see, I think just the opposite with the Seniors mentality down there in Florida.
Seeing John McCain as the War-Hero vs the Junior Senator from Illinois during these tough times, I think is going to be a stretch for them to go with Obama.

I am more optimistic about Florida going to Obama, than Ohio ... but I still don't see it happening.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The latest Polls ....

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College Morning Call 10/14-18: Obama 52%, McCain 40%.

Ohio, Suffolk University 10/16-19: Obama 51%, McCain 42%.
Ohio, NBC Mason Dixon 10/16-17: McCain 46%, Obama 45%.

Virginia, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.

Missouri, Suffolk University 10/17-19: McCain 45%, Obama 44%.

Kentucky, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-16: McCain 53%, Obama 39%.

New Hampshire, Concord Monitor 10/17-19: Obama 50%, McCain 43%.

Montana, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/15-16: McCain 49%, Obama 45%.

Minnesota, Star Tribune 10/16-17: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.

Wisconsin, NBC Mason Dixon 10/16-17: Obama 51%, McCain 39%.

West Virginia, Public Policy Polling 10/16-17: McCain 50%, Obama 42%.
West Virginia, NBC Mason Dixon 10/16-17: McCain 47%, Obama 41%.

Texas, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 52%, Obama 40%.

Colorado, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

Mississippi, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

Nevada, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

Wyoming, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-16: McCain 58%, Obama 35%.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm not quite ready to make a call on North Dakota, Ohio, or Florida, but here is the state of the race as I see it finishing.

Of course at this point we're just dithering over how big a win Obama gets, as Obama wins with 306 electoral votes without North Dakota, Ohio, or Florida.

I do feel comfortable giving North Carolina to Obama, and I hesitantly give Missouri to McCain.

Here's were I saw the race about a month ago.

Quite a few changes in this past month.....

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

One thing that I've followed in elections prior is the day-to-day travels of the 4 candidates. Given that they have the more expensive and thorough internal polls, their travels tell you what the internals must reflect and where their priorities lie. That said, does anyone know of a website that gives the daily and recent whereabouts of McCain, Obama, Palin and Biden...maybe even Bill & Hillary, too? I would like a one-stop shop for these answers versus having to slowly hear news accounts.

I know that today Obama, Hills and Richardson were in Tampa and Orlando for a 2-day Florida campaign stump and Palin was in Colorado and McCain was in Missouri.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You see, I think just the opposite with the Seniors mentality down there in Florida.
Seeing John McCain as the War-Hero vs the Junior Senator from Illinois during these tough times, I think is going to be a stretch for them to go with Obama.

I am more optimistic about Florida going to Obama, than Ohio ... but I still don't see it happening.

I'm guessing that Powell's endorsement of Obama will make a serious difference with the military folk. McCain is stuck on a story of the past; Powell has been there much more recently. When a more recent War Hero who actually fought over in the Middle East, where we are now, takes a stand against the older one, I see things undergoing a shift.

 

[opinterph]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

… does anyone know of a website that gives the daily and recent whereabouts of McCain, Obama, Palin and Biden...maybe even Bill & Hillary, too.

Washington Post tracks the candidates, their spouses, and VP nominees …

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/tracker/​

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That said, does anyone know of a website that gives the daily and recent whereabouts of McCain, Obama, Palin and Biden...maybe even Bill & Hillary, too? I would like a one-stop shop for these answers versus having to slowly hear news accounts.

I know that today Obama, Hills and Richardson were in Tampa and Orlando for a 2-day Florida campaign stump and Palin was in Colorado and McCain was in Missouri.

DailyKos posts the candidate's schedules daily:

Today's Candidate Schedule
by BarbinMD
Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:35:03 AM PDT

Where will the candidates be today?

Barack Obama

Tampa, Florida
Steinbrenner Field (formerly Legends Field)
10:30 am (EDT)

Orlando, Florida - with Hillary Clinton
Amway Arena North Staircase
Gates Open: 3:00 pm (EDT)
Program Begins: 6:00 pm (EDT)

Joe Biden

No public events scheduled

[Michelle Obama and Jill Biden have no public events scheduled]

John McCain

St. Charles, Missouri
New Town at St. Charles
11:00 am (CDT)

Belton, Missouri
Heartland High School & Academy
Bill Harmon Field
5:45 pm (CDT)

Sarah Palin

Colorado Springs, Colorado
Security Service Field
10:00 am (MDT)

Loveland, Colorado
Budweiser Events Center
2:00 pm (MDT)

Grand Junction, Colorado
Suplizio Field at Lincoln Park
8:00 pm (MDT)

http://www.dailykos.com/main/2

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

John King of CNN reports that some in McCain's campaign have given up in CO:

Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.

"Gone," was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.

This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/mccain-camp-looking-for-way-to-win-without-colorado/

Obama has consistently led in most polls by more than four points for months. RCP has Obama at +5.5.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

Palin was here today and I assume McCain will be back. Rick Davis says it is still in play. Maybe they are just trying to put on a brave face in an increasingly grim situation.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A question to the local pundits:

Will Powell's endorsement stir the military community in Virginia enough to bring Obama significant numbers of votes?

I got a call from a friend who is in the Army (two stints in Iraq ... so far). He voted for McCain in MO a couple of days ago. He didn't change his mind after Powell's endorsement, but he did call to, as he said, "wave the white flag of surrender" in the election after seeing Powell on Sunday.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Thanks Opinterph and Syntax for the calendar links. I knew someone here would come through for me. It had to be out there somewhere.


And on Tuesday, here is there calendar:

Campaign Events: October 21, 2008

Joe Biden

• 10:30 a.m., Rally in Greeley, CO.
• 2:30 p.m., Rally in Commerce City, CO.

John McCain

• 8 a.m., Rally in Bensalem, PA.
• Noon, Rally in Harrisburg, PA.
• 3:30 p.m., Rally in Pittsburgh, PA.

Barack Obama

• 10:30 a.m., Rally in Lake Worth, FL.

Michelle Obama

• 11:45 a.m., Rally in Pensacola, FL.
• 5:45 p.m., Rally in Miami, FL.

Barack Obama

• 5:45 p.m., Rally in Miami, FL.

Sarah Palin

• 7 a.m., Rally in Reno, NV.
• 11 a.m., Rally in Henderson, NV.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/tracker/dates/2008/oct/21/

Glad to see Obama efforting in Florida so intensely, and I notice Palin is out west two days in a row in CO and NV.

I mentioned earlier that I had voted today in GA. Well, as of Friday, turnout is already 12% here, which is astonishingly high for 17 days prior to the election. Demographically speaking, Whites accounted for 61% of the vote and blacks for 36%. Female early voters outnumbered male voters 56 to 41%.

Two new GA polls show the Dems closing in. GQR has McCain leading Obama by 2 points, 46-44%; and in the US Senate race, Research 2000 has Saxby Shameless leading Martin by only two points as well.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I see the Obama camp doesn't seem to mind working evenings either, to reach out to those who can't get off work during the day.

Great strategy.