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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Bareback1988 said:
This may seem like a weird comment, but both Obama's IL and McCain's AZ neighbor five other states, and while it seems Obama may carry four of his neighbors (IA, MO, WI and perhaps IN, losing only KY) McCain could lose four (CA, NM, CO and NV, winning only UT).

Since Americans often move to neighboring states, I guess a lot of people have moved in and out of AZ since McCain became a US Senator in 1986, and he doesn't seem to be popular in the part of the country that knows him best.
Click to expand...

Not too long ago he was the target of a serious recall petition drive. That should tell the rest of the nation something.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You have to go back 100 years for when Colorado last voted Democratic for a candidate who lost his election.

In Election 1908, William J. Bryan won Colorado while having lost the election to Republican William H. Taft.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Obama has basically lost his lead in Ohio and Florida since the last debate, but he has still maintained a strong lead in Virginia according to new polls.

That's pretty big imo because I do not believe McCain can win without Virginia.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just heard msnbc has a new poll coming out showing PA. is now a dead heat. Not good....
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

justndav said:
Just heard msnbc has a new poll coming out showing PA. is now a dead heat. Not good....
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huh? I'm not sure I buy that. In two polls taken in PA since the third debate, Obama is +8 and +10.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

justndav said:
Just heard msnbc has a new poll coming out showing PA. is now a dead heat. Not good....
Click to expand...


Some interesting battleground numbers:


Pennsylvania
Obama +8 -- Susquehana
Obama +10 -- Morning Call

Indiana
Obama +2 -- PPP

Florida
Obama +1 -- PPP
McCain +1 --- FOX

North Carolina
TIE -- SurveyUSA
Obama +3 -- Civitas
Obama +3 -- FOX
Obama +7 -- PPP
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oh, Sammie, I do so hate to serve you a plate of North Carolina Crow, but the numbers from the Tarheel State are definitely trending Obama. In fact, Pollster, has now moved North Carolina into the Obama column.

Pollster also moves Montana from McCain to Toss-up, and when Pollster giveth, it also takes away ..... Florida moves from Obama to Toss-up.

Incidentally, Virginia is now solidly Obama. So is Pennsylvania.

More polls ....

Illinois, Chicago Tribune Poll 10/16-18: Obama 56%, McCain 32%.

New Jersey, Quinnipiac University 10/16-19: Obama 59%, McCain 36%.

North Carolina, Civitas TelOpinion (R) 10/18-20: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Barr 1%.

Indiana, Public Policy Polling 10/18-19: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Oklahoma, Survey USA 10/18-19: McCain 59%, Obama 35%.

Wyoming, Survey USA 10/18-19: McCain 58%, Obama 37%.

Incidentally, the North Carolina Civitas poll is a conservative group. And how about those numbers in Indiana! Woo Hoo!

Chuck Todd thinks Ohio will vote McCain, but will still lose the election.

The numbers in Florida trouble me, even though Obama still wins without Florida. Those numbers should be getting better, now worse, following the Powell endorsement.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
North Carolina
TIE -- SurveyUSA
Obama +3 -- Civitas
Obama +3 -- FOX
Obama +7 -- PPP
Click to expand...
Woo-hoo! My vote's actually gonna count this year! :gogirl:
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I would have never dreamed in a million years that Obama would stand a better chance of winning North Carolina than Florida. But, that looks to be the case. I'm going to remain stubborn though, Snapcat, and still keep N.C. in the McCain column because I just can't believe it. I mean just 4 years ago, NC easily went to Bush despite a native son as the VP on the Dem ticket. It is nice to see a few new states in play this year-- VA,NC, and CO.

Oh, Snapcat, sorry to correct you, but pollster has NC as a TossUp and not in the Obama column.
http://pollster.com/
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, you know I have to have a little fun with ya! LOL!

I think we are looking at a changing demographic in many states. You know, there was a time when even Vermont used to be a GOP stronghold.

We have to look at who is moving where. I think we'll see Texas flip in a few cycles. Look at all of the Katrina people now living in Houston. Austin is growing.

I'm sure there are scholars who study migration of people from state to state. I'm no expert.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I wonder if we are underestimating Barack Obama in the Electoral College.

If we see that U.S. Senate go to a filibuster-proof, 60-minimum seat for Democrats … isn't that a sweeping effect that spills over into the Electoral College?

The way it's going in this country, it may not be such a stretch for there to be a 400-vote victory in the Electoral College for Barack Obama.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat said:
I think we are looking at a changing demographic in many states. You know, there was a time when even Vermont used to be a GOP stronghold.

We have to look at who is moving where. I think we'll see Texas flip in a few cycles. Look at all of the Katrina people now living in Houston. Austin is growing.
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The major demographic change that I'm seeing in Texas is a greatly increasing Hispanic population which is overwhelmingly Democratic. Many states have seen an increase in Hispanic population, but Texas has seen the largest in the nation. It hasn't gotten to the point of Texas flipping this election, but I think it could be there in four years. I think Fort Worth will certainly be there in four years. Democrats picked up two state House seats from Tarrant County over the past two years, and I think that number will increase.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat,

Four states in New England reliably voted Republican: Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island have been Democratic as they are today.

In Election 1960, Democratic winner John Kennedy carried his home state of Mass. plus Conn. and R.I. But in New England he lost the three other states.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

CoolBlue71 said:
I wonder if we are underestimating Barack Obama in the Electoral College.

If we see that U.S. Senate go to a filibuster-proof, 60-minimum seat for Democrats … isn't that a sweeping effect that spills over into the Electoral College?

The way it's going in this country, it may not be such a stretch for there to be a 400-vote victory in the Electoral College for Barack Obama.
Click to expand...

Believe me. It definitely is a HUGE stretch to say he will get a 400 EV victory.

If you see how he can get anywhere near 400, please map it out for us. Obama will probably break 300, barely ... but it isn't going anywhere near 400.


I stand by my predictions:

302 Obama vs 236 McCain

Obama:

Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Missouri



McCain:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Indiana
North Dakota

West Virginia isn't in play anymore, according to RCP ... and I never thought it was in the first place. They mine as well put Indiana in the McCain column as well. I'm surprised that is still ranked a "Toss Up".
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Florida is driving me crazy.

And it probably will drive everyone crazy on election night, with people farther west waiting to hear what's happening back east before heading to the polls... or staying home.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Coolblue, I love ya, but your going over to the deep end of the pool again, while I'm going to stay in the shallow waters with Midnight. I think he's more in line with the outcome of this election...although I'm reluctantly giving Florida to Obama, but Missouri to McCain. By the way, Midnight, before you completely write off Indiana, note my latest IN poll at the top of this page (that said, I'm giving the Hoosier State to McCain, too).

That damn Florida...such a pesky little state...I am ashamed to call them my neighbor:-<
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few new polls out this evening:

COLORADO -- Obama +5 -- InsiderAdvantage

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +1 -- InsiderAdvantage -- That's 5 polls from the Tarheel State released in the last 48 hours that shows Obama ahead in four, and tied in one poll.

NEVADA -- TIE -- InsiderAdvantage -

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +10 -- Rasmussen

SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +11 -- Rasmussen

This, on the heels of tonight's new NBC/Wall St. Journal national poll that has Obama's lead now at 10 points, 52-42%. I believe that was the first time that Obama reached the magic 50% threshold in their poll.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Im just wondering what time polls close in Virginia and what time they close in Florida. I think if results from Virginia come in quickly enough for them to call it before Florida closes then some McCain supporters may not vote esp. in the panhandle of Fl. which is strongly Republican.
I personally think Obama will take one of the Fl/Oh combo but not both. My gut says he likely loses a close one in Missouri too.
Indiana could be interesting in that a lot of NW In. is in the Chicago media market and there will likely be a large minority vote in Indianapolis whether those two factors can offset the rest of the rural vote I dont know, plus there are some big Universities in Indiana as well...
North Carolina I think may be close until all the votes are counted, something tells me McCain will still pull it out. I dont think Obama has crossed 50% in any reliable poll or if he has it hasnt been for a long period of time.
Obama really has to keep an eye on Pa. in my opinion if McCain somehow pulls an upset here and holds Nc, Oh, and Fl. its very hard for Obama to win.
 
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