15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few new polls out this evening:

COLORADO -- Obama +5 -- InsiderAdvantage

I love Colorado. Our skies are blue 300 days of the year. It did rain today.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just heard msnbc has a new poll coming out showing PA. is now a dead heat. Not good....

justndav Please post the poll from MSNBC that shows that PA is a "now a dead heat."

 

[justndav]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

justndav Please post the poll from MSNBC that shows that PA is a "now a dead heat."

It was a poll they showed earlier today from pittsburgh post/sesquehanna times with the race 48-42 I believe. 6 pt. margin.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If I learn to link a map, I'll provide with an image the answer to Midnight's question about what a 400-vote victory in the Electoral College would like for Obama. (Yeah, I know what you said, Sammie13. I didn't say it was my bet.)

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It was a poll they showed earlier today from pittsburgh post/sesquehanna times with the race 48-42 I believe. 6 pt. margin.

That's not a dead heat. That's outside the margin of error of any poll unless it has a sample size so small it can be disregarded anyway.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of interesting new polls:

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +1 -- RMG

FLORIDA -- McCain +1 -- NBC/Mason/Dixon

VIRGINIA -- Obama +2 -- NBC/Mason/Dixon


West Va may be an outlier poll. However, things are tight in VA and FL and anything can happen.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Shocking if true: Internal Obama poll shows two-point lead in PA

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/

Don't have time to listen to the linked audio.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Shocking if true: Internal Obama poll shows two-point lead in PA

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-.

Perhaps that explains why McCain/Palin have been spending so much time in the Keystone State. The two campaigns may know something that we don't.

In other news, a few new CNN state polls:

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +9 -- I think with the battery of new Mountain State polls, we can discern that West By God Virginia ain't flippin'.

OHIO -- Obama +4 -- Good numbers in the Buckeye State.

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +4 -- And the Tarheel State continues to consistently track for the Dems. Carter, in 1976, was the last time a Dem carried NC.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +10 -- No, Myrtle, you don't need new eyeglasses, I did in fact say that Old Dominion is now double digit for the Dems.

NEVADA -- Obama +5 -- The Silver State still tracking well for Obama.

The margin of error is 3.5% in Nevada and Ohio; 4% in VA, WVA, and NC.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

McCain's not out of this thing yet. But he essentially needs to turn one blue state red (PA would be huge for him) plus win all the existing toss up states. A tall order but not impossible with two weeks to go. Obama better not be getting the least bit complacent.

 

[justndav]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Im getting a really bad feeling about this election. The comments made by Jack Murtha have not helped Obama at all. Obama is gonna need some huge margins in Eastern Pa. if he is to win because I think Murtha just helped him lose a significant amount of votes in central and western Pa.
Folks I have been feeling pretty good about this election but now we have all these polls from various sources showing really tight margins with 13days to go and my gut says this is not good for Obama. I think McCain can truly pull this off. The question will be how upset will Obama supporters be if McCain wins...? I'll be pretty pi$$ed myself.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I can't remember who said it on the forum, but when we were talking about Tim Russert and what state he would be telling us to keep our eyes on this year .... I said "Virginia and Colorado".

However, the person I spoke with said he thought it was going to AGAIN come down to "Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania".

Kudos to whichever poster said that on here, as all eyes will in fact be on Pennsylvania ... with this being McCain's last hope of winning.

If McCain pulls in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia .... he'll win.

Or, if not Virginia, he could pull in Missouri and Nevada. Another very real possibility.

So, if McCain finds a way to tap into PA and turn it red within the next 2 weeks, Obama is going to be in trouble.

 

[Sausy]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If the liberal idiots who keep opening their traps keep spouting that cultural and ideological horse manure that threatens to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,then it will be a terrible waste.What should people in John Murtha's district think of him?Is it a racist and redneck free district?

The country wants change but not a dramatic move to the left.They want to go center and liberals ought to watch themselves lest the until now unthinkable happens and Obama jons Al Gore and John Kerry as Dem nominees in razor thin battles on the outside looking in.Their smugness,cultural elitism and self righteousness keep a lot of people who would ordinarily be very open to voting Democrat either to avoid voting or go GOP.It would be horrible if Obama were to lose a vital state such as Pennsylvania where he had made such impressive inroads after winning the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton....when will fucking Democratic liberal boobs get in their heads that without a significant Bubba vote,they can never win or sustain a governing majority whether they like it or not.Bill Clinton for his flaws knew how to speak to that constituency....does any other prominent Democrat speak the language,or care to learn it fluently?

 

[justndav]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Im just begining to think Pa. is starting to slip away and it troubles me badly. How can we go from looking good to being in danger so quickly? The dumb$hits who keep flapping their trap. We better hope Hillarycrats in Pa. come home to Obama and run up huge margins around Philly and Pittsburgh or it could be a long night 11/4.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Karl Rove was on Hannity and Colmes this evening stating that McCain is putting all of his resources into Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

If McCain wins Ohio (I think he will), Florida (I think he will), Missouri (is a true toss up at the moment) ... and is able to turn both New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania red... we can kiss it goodbye.

Let's hope Hillary and Biden plan to spend plenty of time up in PA playing defense, while Barack goes after Florida.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

McCain is trying another "Hail Mary" reboot in PA. What other choice does he have? Pulling out of PA after abandoning MI, MN, IA, NM and WI would be perceived as an admission of defeat. What other Democratic states from 2000/2004 does he have left to contest?

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I find it a highly unlikely scenario that McCain turns PA. fivethirtyeight.com lists 28 PA polls in the last 2 months and not a single one of them has McCain leading. Momemtum is going Obama's way and I think that will make consistently blue states like PA even more likely to be solidly Obama. However if McCain puts all his money there, nothing is certain.

 

[Sausy]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Best post in a long time. You nailed it.

I don't think Obama would approve of the word "redneck" in any context. As the son and grandson of three people from rural Kansas, he may even take it personal.

Oh,he's probably pissed....his oft misrepresented statement about holding on to guns and religion when talking about rural voters (ironically in Pensylvania during the primaries)was never meant in a negative way at all but in sympathy for their plight in a struggling,gloomy economy.

You have to connect to the heartland,where his mom comes from.....he spoke somewhere I read today about his grandmother,who is seriously ill now how he looked up to herr,how she taught him great Kansas values which he holds dear to this day....he loves this country and has never acted in a way that would indicate he holds the heartland with anything but affection,even though politically he may be more liberal overall than the average heartlander the values still speak to his personal experience and makeup.

Why would Murtha's constituents want to vote for him on Election Day to represent them?He seems to be ashamed of them....but that's the problem with many liberals,they have a contemptuous,derisive view of the rural/small town voter.


It goes the other way too with Sarah Palin's demagogic praise of small town communities as being patriotic and pro-American.The hard right thinks arrogantly and hypocritically that they are the only patriots,everyone from outside the heartland is an elitist or socialist America hater.Well,urban America has a lot of patriotism too....and patriotism doesn't entail that you agree with your country right or wrong.A true patriot knows dissent and diversity of perspectives is also patriotism in action.The conservative wing of the Republican Party absolutely DOES NOT have a momopoly on loving this nation...oftentimes people are called to speak out or march against policies of the government that they believe go against what America represents,at least the best of America.The vast majority of those Sarah Palin lovers enjoy reviling with their red meat hysteria love this country just as much if not more than the America,Fuck Yeah crowd.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If the liberal idiots who keep opening their traps keep spouting that cultural and ideological horse manure that threatens to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,then it will be a terrible waste.What should people in John Murtha's district think of him?Is it a racist and redneck free district?

The country wants change but not a dramatic move to the left.They want to go center and liberals ought to watch themselves lest the until now unthinkable happens and Obama jons Al Gore and John Kerry as Dem nominees in razor thin battles on the outside looking in.Their smugness,cultural elitism and self righteousness keep a lot of people who would ordinarily be very open to voting Democrat either to avoid voting or go GOP.It would be horrible if Obama were to lose a vital state such as Pennsylvania where he had made such impressive inroads after winning the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton....when will fucking Democratic liberal boobs get in their heads that without a significant Bubba vote,they can never win or sustain a governing majority whether they like it or not.Bill Clinton for his flaws knew how to speak to that constituency....does any other prominent Democrat speak the language,or care to learn it fluently?

Al Gore and John Kerry aren't comparable. All elections aren't the same, and Elections 2000 and 2004 aren't similar to 2008. They mishandled themselves in how the campaigned. And, in some ways, they were duped. Their responsibility, of course; I make no excuses for them.

The thing with Barack Obama some folks, like yourself, fail to grasp is this: He is not a pussy nor will he settle for second. And he is on the correct side of the issues and political party for the current landscape.

Regarding some of your other ideas and suggestions: The Obama camp is well-informed. If they believe John McCain threatens in Pennsylvania…okay, they would like revisit.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Perhaps that explains why McCain/Palin have been spending so much time in the Keystone State. The two campaigns may know something that we don't.

In other news, a few new CNN state polls:

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +9 -- I think with the battery of new Mountain State polls, we can discern that West By God Virginia ain't flippin'.

OHIO -- Obama +4 -- Good numbers in the Buckeye State.

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +4 -- And the Tarheel State continues to consistently track for the Dems. Carter, in 1976, was the last time a Dem carried NC.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +10 -- No, Myrtle, you don't need new eyeglasses, I did in fact say that Old Dominion is now double digit for the Dems.

NEVADA -- Obama +5 -- The Silver State still tracking well for Obama.

The margin of error is 3.5% in Nevada and Ohio; 4% in VA, WVA, and NC.

I'm not giving up on West Virginia. Enough polls lately have me quetioning…the polls. You may end up right, Sammie13, of course. But I wouldn't give up just yet!

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Im just wondering what time polls close in Virginia and what time they close in Florida. I think if results from Virginia come in quickly enough for them to call it before Florida closes then some McCain supporters may not vote esp. in the panhandle of Fl. which is strongly Republican.
I personally think Obama will take one of the Fl/Oh combo but not both. My gut says he likely loses a close one in Missouri too.
Indiana could be interesting in that a lot of NW In. is in the Chicago media market and there will likely be a large minority vote in Indianapolis whether those two factors can offset the rest of the rural vote I dont know, plus there are some big Universities in Indiana as well...
North Carolina I think may be close until all the votes are counted, something tells me McCain will still pull it out. I dont think Obama has crossed 50% in any reliable poll or if he has it hasnt been for a long period of time.
Obama really has to keep an eye on Pa. in my opinion if McCain somehow pulls an upset here and holds Nc, Oh, and Fl. its very hard for Obama to win.

This election is Economy No. 1.

…Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Obama will win each one. If this is a huge wave, that's where Indiana comes in.