15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sausy]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Al Gore and John Kerry aren't comparable. All elections aren't the same, and Elections 2000 and 2004 aren't similar to 2008. They mishandled themselves in how the campaigned. And, in some ways, they were duped. Their responsibility, of course; I make no excuses for them.

The thing with Barack Obama some folks, like yourself, fail to grasp is this: He is not a pussy nor will he settle for second. And he is on the correct side of the issues and political party for the current landscape.

Regarding some of your other ideas and suggestions: The Obama camp is well-informed. If they believe John McCain threatens in Pennsylvania…okay, they would like revisit.

Even well informed campaigns make mistakes....revisiting if threatened is nice but the party leaders should exercise enough discipline and self restraint that it should never be necessary. Obama has to also keep tabs on such winnable states as Missouri,North Carolina,Florida,Virginia....any controversies that seem to alienate heartland/rural voters could cost Obama dearly.He shouldn't have to be in the position to prevent a turn towards McCain in those states and be forced to exhaust valuable time and money and spread himself thin with a defensive and desperate damage prevention situation presenting itself at the last minute. He loses a couple of those states and those of us who support Barack Obama could be in for a long,tense night indeed.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I see the latest Big 10 Battleground Poll has put Ohio as Obama being ahead by Double Digits. RCP now has Ohio ranked as "Leaning Obama". I'm sorry, but I don't believe that for a second.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I see the latest Big 10 Battleground Poll has put Ohio as Obama being ahead by Double Digits. RCP now has Ohio ranked as "Leaning Obama". I'm sorry, but I don't believe that for a second.

That's based on the Big10 Battleground and Quinnipiac polls both which showed a double digit lead for Obama and bumped the average up. I'm not sure on that either, however both polls were taken after the third debate and the Quinnipiac one had the largest sample size of any of them.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Even well informed campaigns make mistakes....revisiting if threatened is nice but the party leaders should exercise enough discipline and self restraint that it should never be necessary. Obama has to also keep tabs on such winnable states as Missouri,North Carolina,Florida,Virginia....any controversies that seem to alienate heartland/rural voters could cost Obama dearly.He shouldn't have to be in the position to prevent a turn towards McCain in those states and be forced to exhaust valuable time and money and spread himself thin with a defensive and desperate damage prevention situation presenting itself at the last minute. He loses a couple of those states and those of us who support Barack Obama could be in for a long,tense night indeed.

No offense to you. But it sounds like you aren't aware of a few matters concerning Election 2008. 1) Not with the top issue—Economy!—impacting how voters are deciding on the two leading candidates; 2) The two campaigns; 3) The numbers breakdown in voting groups (national polling as well); 4) The history of prior elections with a terrible economy and/or an unpopular war (1932, 1952, 1968, 1980, 1992—in all of them not once did we reward the incumbent political party with the White House for the following four years; 5) The electoral votes taking shape (and statewide polling) in battlegrounds and others that may potentially move further to Obama (meaning, the direction this is heading!).

It also sounds like you're fearful. But really—it's the Republicans who are fearful. Of epic losses, with: 1) the presidency; 2) the House; 3) a potential super majority Democratic Senate; 4) their brand and future (thanks to Bush!); 5) power!

Going back to your comment on center, center left, center right: Barack Obama's FISA vote was a move to the center. And the fact that he didn't permit MoveOn.org to have input on his campaign. See, the funny thing is…some folks have not awakened to how they foolishly underestimate Obama.

One last thing: About campaign mistakes—take a look at the McCain camp!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Lots of exciting and dazzling new polls. Here are a few highlights:

Pennsylvania is getting alot of discussions and there are 5 new PA polls out today and they are very consistent:
SurveyUSA: Obama +12
Big 10 Poll: Obama +11
Morning Call: Obama +10
Quinnipiac: Obama +13
Nat'l Journal: Obama +10

And some other states of interest:

GEORGIA -- McCain +5 -- Rasmussen -- Obama is creeping up in the Peach State...will Obama ever actually campaign here?

MONTANA -- Obama +4 -- Mont. St. U -- Could the Treasure State really hold gold for the Dems?

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +5 -- Orion

INDIANA -- Obama +10 -- Big 10 Polls -- WOW...perhaps this is an outlier. Every poll from the midwest Big 10 was a blowout for Obama.

OHIO -- Obama +12 -- Big 10 Polls -- Like I said....

FLORIDA -- Obama +7 -- St Pete Times -- The media voice of Pinnellas County finds Obama winning comfortably.

ARKANSAS -- McCain +15 -- U of Ark -- Pig, Suey!!! This Razorback polls finds alot of disenchanted Hillary supporters voting McCain in the Natural State.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, I would have to say that some of those Big 10 polls, including Indiana, are truly outliers. But that doesn't mean they are any less fun to ponder.

Lots of polls, today!

Florida, NBC Mason Dixon 10/20-21: McCain 46%, Obama 45%.
Florida, Quinnipiac University 10/16-21: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

Ohio, CNN Time 10/19-21: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.
Ohio, Quinnipiac University 10/16-21: Obama 52%, McCain 38%.
Ohio, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 53%, McCain 41%.

North Carolina, CNN Time 10/19-21: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
North Carolina, WSOC TV 10/20-21: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.


Virginia, CNN Time 10/19-21: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.

Virginia, NBC Mason Dixon 10/20-21: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

Tennessee, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: McCain 54%, Obama 42%.

Wisconsin, WPR St Norbert 10/9-17: Obama 51%, McCain 38%.
Wisconsin, Research 2000 10/20-21: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.
Wisconsin, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 53%, McCain 40%.

Kentucky, Rasmussen Reports 10/21: McCain 52%, Obama 44%.

Nevada, CNN Time 10/19-21: Obama 51%, McCain 46%.

West Virginia, CNN Time 10/19-21: Obama 53%, McCain 44%.

Maine, Pan Atlantic SMS 10/13-16: Obama 51%, McCain 39%.

Alaska, Ivan Moore 10/17-19: McCain 53%, Obama 42%.

California, Public Policy Institute of California 10/12-19: Obama 56%, McCain 33%.

Texas, Rasmussen Reports 10/21: McCain 54%, Obama 44%.

Illinois, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 61%, McCain 32%.

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University 10/16-21: Obama 53%, McCain 40%.
Pennsylvania, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 52%, McCain 41%.

Michigan, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 58%, McCain 36%.

Indiana, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 51%, McCain 41%.

Minnesota, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 57%, McCain 38%.

Iowa, Big10 Battleground 10/19-22: Obama 52%, McCain 39%.

And in other news, Polster has moved Ohio back into the Obama column.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

While I find North Carolina most intriguing, Indiana is not far behind. The proud home of Dan Quayle has truly become a battleground. Not only was Obama there this morning, and Palin will be back there on Saturday, but the polls have really shifted there. Just look at the last 3 polls from the Hoosier State--all released in the last 24 hours:
SurveyUSA -- Obama +4
Big 10 Polls -- Obama +9.5
PPP -- Obama +2

We are certainly not accustomed to seeing presidential battlegrounds in the likes of North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Colorado. And this is a good thing...I had become sick every four years of hearing about the trifecta known as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

In the meantime, as we count down the days, where will the candidates be:

Obama: Sat-- Albuquerque, NM, and Reno and Las Vegas, NV; Sun -- Denver

Biden: No report

Palin: Sat-- Sioux City, IA and Ft Wayne, IN

McCain: Sat-- Las Cruces and Albuquerque, NM; Sun--Cedar Falls, IA, and Lancaster and Zanesville, OH; Mon-- Pottsville, PA; Tue-- Fayetteville, NC

Of course, other locales will fill in. I really find the GOP decisions more interesting. Iowa gets visits from both McCain and Palin...is the Hawkeye State even in play? I'm not familiar with some of these towns, but you would think that they would be hitting the big TV markets, but perhaps some of these places are suburbs. And Fayetteville, NC???? That's a smallish military town in eastern NC (nicknamed FayetteNam)...it's kinda in the middle of nowhere and what value could McCain find in visiting what should be a GOP vote-friendly military town exactly one week before the election?

Both candidates will be hitting Albuquerque on the same day...perhaps they'll bump into each other.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just FYI .... work is going to be a bear for me until Sunday. No polls from me until then, so you guys post'em if you see'em!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, there were some interesting polls out today...some showing that McCain is gaining some state momentum. Note that Strategic Vision is funded by the GOP

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +2 -- Rasmussen; Obama +1-- Winthrop.

GEORGIA -- Obama +1 (48-47%) -- InsiderAdvantage; McCain +6 -- Strategic Vision. More on the Obama's first GA lead right here: http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia....er 2008/10-24-08/Insider_Ga_Poll102419643.php

OHIO -- Obama +10 -- InsiderAdvantage; McCain +3 -- Strategic Vision

FLORIDA -- Obama +1 -- InsiderAdvantage; McCain +2 -- Strategic Vision

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +7 -- Strategic Vision

SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +20 -- Winthrop

VIRGINIA -- Obama +1 -- Winthrop

MICHIGAN -- Obama +14 -- Detroit News.

Thus far, today's other polls are from states that are non-battleground and aren't even close like Alabama, Oregon, Maine, etc.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In 2006, Rasmussen Reports underestimated some performance races won by Democrats. So in Election 2008, I'm inclined to mentally add two points to whatever state Rasmussen is polling for Barack Obama while subtracting two points to the same state polling for John McCain.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In 2006, Rasmussen Reports underestimated some performance races won by Democrats. So in Election 2008, I'm inclined to mentally add two points to whatever state Rasmussen is polling for Barack Obama while subtracting two points to the same state polling for John McCain.

Unless they're using the exact same formula as in 2006, which is doubtful...different election and all...then, I can't find much wisdom in doing that!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The 538 website, which is an excellent election analysis blog despite being run by Chicago liberals ranks the accuracy and reliability of polls, which they plug into their own projections based on pollster scoring. Out of the pollsters who do the highest volume of public polling, the poorest are Zogby and CBS, while SurveyUSA and Rasmussen rank the highest. Mason Dixon, Research2000, and one of my faves, Quinnipiac also deliver solid results.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster ratings

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of new evening polls...these both from Rasmussen:

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama 50%, McCain 46% -- Obama's 10 point lead a few weeks ago from Ras. has dwindeled down to a mere 4% in the wonderful Granite State.

IOWA -- Obama 52%, McCain 44% -- Second consecutive 8 pt lead from Ras in the Hawkeye State for Obama.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of new evening polls...these both from Rasmussen:

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama 50%, McCain 46% -- Obama's 10 point lead a few weeks ago from Ras. has dwindeled down to a mere 4% in the wonderful Granite State.

I guess some voters in NH will fall for a rich, old man who tells them "I love you."

"I love you, I love New Hampshire, I know I can count on you again," McCain told voters at the Saint Anselm College hockey rink.

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/john_mccain_barack_obama.html

Maybe Obama needs to return and tell NH "how pretty it looks in the fall" or perhaps send flowers in order to win them back over?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I guess some voters in NH will fall for a rich, old man who tells them "I love you."

Maybe Obama needs to return and tell NH "how pretty it looks in the fall" or perhaps send flowers in order to win them back over?

I know that I sound as stupid as Chris Matthews talking about how he drove thru PA last Saturday to go to a Penn St football game. He exclaimed to Tom Ridge and Ed Rendell that he was concerned because he saw far more McCain/Palin yard signs than Obama there. Well, on vacation, I saw far more McCain yard signs in Maine and New Hampshire than Obama...made me feel like I was back in GA. I don't know what the Obama folks are doing about there lack of signage, but it gives you the impression as you motor down the road that McCain must be far more popular and on his way to an easy landslide victory. Then, I look at the polls and I'm like "what the hell?!?!"

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the Obama/Biden camp was running low on signs. Not sure where I read it; but that I had come across some article a couple weeks back.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the Obama/Biden camp was running low on signs. Not sure where I read it; but that I had come across some article a couple weeks back.

People here are making their own for both Obama and McCain.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought of getting an Obama/Biden sign. But I decided not to because I don't like to advertise my vote.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That sounds incredibly silly to me, and I can't remember you ever posting anything at all that I found silly.

If you always vote Democratic, everybody probably already knows. If you are a true swing voter, nobody will be surprised you swing along with many others. Or is it that you will vote for them reluctantly, for lack of anything better?

No, it's not silly. If anyone were to ask, I'd tell them. I've just never done it with signs on the lawn or a pin worn on my shirt. Nope. Just the way I am.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't think I've ever used a yard sign for a presidential race, but certainly for other races. Right now, I have signs in the yard for both US Senate and House candidates. I tend to be more of a bumper sticker guy. In presidential terms, I have sported stickers for Mondale in '84, Clinton in '92 and '96, and Gore in '00. Dukakis, Kerry and Obama were not worthy of a place on my vehicle. The funny thing at the local Dem HQ is that when I picked up my current signs, etc. is that she wanted to sell me Obama signs/stickers ($5 for a sign, $2 for the sticker). I laughed and told her, "ma'am, I wouldn't want those items if they were free." I have to have conviction for a person to provide free publicity...if you're getting my vote because it's the lesser of two evils, then run your own campaign. Funny thing is my neighborhood is about 50:1 in McCain to Obama signs. Maybe it's because the Obama folks want you to buy their signs. I had never heard of that before.