15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, I'm not so worried about Obama winning in Indiana or Georgia, as I am fascinated about those states being competitive.

I think McCain's campaign will be compared to Dole's run in the '90's, and Gore's run in 2000. McCain's having trouble in his home state. That never ends well ......

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yeah, I think just based on sheer mystery, North Carolina is the most compelling story right now followed, in order, by Missouri, Florida, and Ohio. The polls seem to be a draw right now in NC and MO. The polls in FL and OH mostly have Obama slightly ahead, but polling in these 2 states have never been all that reliable, esp FL.

Based on some polling, there are folks that think Georgia and Indiana hold some surprises, but I'm doubtful. These are true red states, and the GOP is pumping alot of resources in both states now not so much for McCain but to solidify future elections. They don't want the perception that these two states are anything but hardcore red. The GOP is pouring a ton of money Saxby's way in GA just to hold on to that senate seat.

I found a site that shows some Early Voting data.

Take a look at the percentages of Dems vs Republicans that are Early voting in North Carolina.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I found a site that shows some Early Voting data.

Take a look at the percentages of Dems vs Republicans that are Early voting in North Carolina.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Midnight, it says Dems early voting is up from 48 to 54%. I guess I thought it would be a little more than that, esp since so many southerners who register as Dems (in states like NC) often vote GOP in presidential elections. I'm not sure that you can draw many pro-Obama conclusions from that early voting in the Tarheel State. The other observation is that younger voters once again, at least in NC, aren't turning out in big numbers. You would think that they would be most interested in advanced voting since a) they're impatient where lines are concerned and b) it's cool and something their parents couldn't do at that age. Hey, am I reading the one column correctly that states, for example, that 36% of Georgians have already voted and 39% of NC have also voted. That's how I understood that column, but those numbers seem high. If so, I'm impressed!

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Midnight, it says Dems early voting is up from 48 to 54%. I guess I thought it would be a little more than that, esp since so many southerners who register as Dems (in states like NC) often vote GOP in presidential elections.

I'm not alarmed by the Younger voters not turning out just yet. They love to procrastinate, but I'm confident they'll be out on Election Day.

Where as the 2004 numbers aren't showing a large increase for Dems from 04 to 08 ... , I'm looking at the Republican Voters being down by about 10 points and the numbers showing 54.6% Dem to 28.1% Repub. This is a 26.5 difference in favor of the Dems, compared to only 11.2 difference in 2004.




2008 2004

Dem 54.6% 48.6%

Rep 28.1% 37.4%

None 17.3% 14.1%

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Good and valid point, Midnight. Certainly, it shows the apathy in the GOP.

Now, how bout tackling the last question in my above post:

Hey, am I reading the one column correctly that states, for example, that 36% of Georgians have already voted and 39% of NC have also voted. That's how I understood that column, but those numbers seem high. If so, I'm impressed!

 

[LilBit]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I asked my students on Friday how many had already voted, and about 2/3 raised their hands. I was pretty impressed.

I voted last Monday, and the polling place was a fucking zoo. But Chapel Hill is a pretty politically active town.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Good and valid point, Midnight. Certainly, it shows the apathy in the GOP.

Now, how bout tackling the last question in my above post:

2008 Early Vote / 2004 Total Vote


I interpret that as being the percentage of people voting this year, compared to Total Voters for 2004.

There probably is going to be significantly more people voting this year, but it is just the percentage of the entire population of each state that actually voted in 2004.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I asked my students on Friday how many had already voted, and about 2/3 raised their hands. I was pretty impressed.

I voted last Monday, and the polling place was a fucking zoo. But Chapel Hill is a pretty politically active town.

I've been to Chapel Hill before when I lived on the East Coast and traveled to NC on business, amongst other cities in North Carolina. I love Raleigh, btw. One of the cleanest big cities I've actually seen.

And there truly is such a thing called Southern Comfort in NC.

Very friendly people. I just think some of the older folks down there have been a bit misguided. Hopefully, we'll change that this year.

 

[LilBit]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I dunno. I've seen plenty of white-haired folks sporting Obama buttons. And the token Republican in my department even told me the other day that she's much more impressed with Obama's platform than she is with McCain's. And this is the woman who wanted to change party affiliations so that she could vote AGAINST Obama in the primaries.

The polls in this state are looking slightly less favorable for Obama the past few days, but I'm still impressed by the number of supporters that he has here. And Liddy Dole is trailing in the polls as well. I think I may be popping a bottle of champagne on 4 November.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I asked my students on Friday how many had already voted, and about 2/3 raised their hands. I was pretty impressed.

That could bode well for Obama, if it's not just a local phenomenon.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Oh, so many state polls, and so little time to make my silly little comments. The latest....and Obama has a ton of momentum as we blast into the last week of this election that seems to have taken a lifetime.

ALASKA -- McCain +16 -- Rasmussen

ARIZONA -- McCain +2 -- Ariz St Univ

COLORADO -- 1) Obama +9 -- AP; 2) Obama +8 -- CNN

FLORIDA -- 1) Obama +2 -- Quinnipiac; 2) Obama +4 -- CNN

GEORGIA -- McCain +5 -- CNN

INDIANA -- McCain +2 -- Howey

MICHIGAN -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen

MINNESOTA -- Obama +12 -- Rasmussen

MISSOURI -- McCain +2 -- CNN

NEVADA -- Obama +12 -- AP

NEW HAMSPHIRE -- Obama +18 -- AP

NEW MEXICO -- Obama +10 -- Rasmussen

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +2 - AP

OHIO -- 1) Obama +9 -- Quinnipiac; 2) Obama +3 -- Marist; 3) Obama +7 -- AP

PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +13 -- Franklin; 2) Obama +12 -- Quinnipiac; 3) Obama +14 -- Marist; 4) Obama +12 -- AP

VIRGINIA -- 1) Obama +7 -- AP; 2) Obama +9 -- CNN

WASHINGTON-- 1) Obama +12 -- Strategic Vision; 2) Obama +17 -- SurveyUSA

Amazing that all four seperate PA polls have Obama at a double digit lead YET this is where McCain/Palin have drawn a line in the sand. They continue to campaign there and these numbers really make me question that logic. Perhaps their strategy should have been a different state.

Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Colorado are all looking more comfortable for the Dems.

Many others are still too close or the polling too erratic to draw firm conclusions. Florida a little murky...NC and MO are both foggy.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wow, McCain is spending a ton of time in Pennsylvania and he has gained no ground.

Talk to Republicans on the Right Wing Boards. You could have fooled them. They think Pennsylvania is as good as theirs.

They are also convinced that they have:

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Missouri
Indiana
Colorado

They are absolutely convinced they truly will win each of these states.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

why are they so convinced? The polls are wrong?

I have the news on in the background and just heard that a lot of republicans are counting on African Americans and young voters not turning out as indicated by the polls.

I was under the impression most young people were not being polled because they have cell phones normally and not home phones, so Obama has an even larger advantage in the polls then displayed. Is that a false argument?

I hope this election isn't a shocker. There has been enough, "wtf?!" moments imo.

They think the polls are conducted by Liberal Biased Organizations and they are counting on the Bradley Effect. They also are convinced that Hillary Clinton voters are telling the pollsters that they will vote Obama, only to vote McCain.

 

[chatolandia]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't know about those assertions

BUT I will not discount McCain just yet.


I do thin that Obama is very close to nail it, and he probably will, but you never know in this country of ours...

Surprises do happen

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

why are they so convinced? The polls are wrong?

I have the news on in the background and just heard that a lot of republicans are counting on African Americans and young voters not turning out as indicated by the polls.

I was under the impression most young people were not being polled because they have cell phones normally and not home phones, so Obama has an even larger advantage in the polls then displayed. Is that a false argument?

I hope this election isn't a shocker. There has been enough, "wtf?!" moments imo.

While younger people who only have cell phones aren't "being polled", most pollsters have formulas that do account and project these voters and their leanings. That said, one could make the arguement that some of these polls are "over-forecasting" the younger, presumed Democratic turnout. Younger Americans are quite famous for their "all bark and no bite" political reactions. Just yesterday, Midnight posted a link on the tremendous early voting turnout in North Carolina, and guess which demographic was at the back of the bus on early voting? Yep, the youngsters.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +13 -- Franklin; 2) Obama +12 -- Quinnipiac; 3) Obama +14 -- Marist; 4) Obama +12 -- AP



Amazing that all four seperate PA polls have Obama at a double digit lead YET this is where McCain/Palin have drawn a line in the sand. They continue to campaign there and these numbers really make me question that logic. Perhaps their strategy should have been a different state.

Sammie I have two theories on the push in PA:

1) The race for PA is tighter than the public polls show. Internal polls for Team Obama and McCain show that McCain has a shot.

2) McCain has nowhere else to play offense. He's fighting defense or admitted defeat in too many states that went for Bush in 2004. (OH, FL, IA, NM, IN, NV, CO, VA, NC, MO)

What other state do you think he should be putting his resources?

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Ohio might be more appropriate.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ Ohio might be more appropriate.

OH is defense (Bush won in 2004). PA is offense (Kerry won in 2004).

McCain is trying to change the narrative. Losers play defense; winners play offense.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

OH is defense (Bush won in 2004). PA is offense (Kerry won in 2004).

McCain is trying to change the narrative. Losers play defense; winners play offense.

True but it's more than just narrative at this point. The electoral math dictates that he has to play offense somewhere. Even if he holds all the remaining toss up states he still loses.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

All bark and no bite LOL. I'll have to remember that phrase.

I did an unscientific straw poll among the Americans in my youth hostel this week. Most of them claim they come from states that have early voting or other types of absentee voting and favor Obama. But only 20% of those (4 out of 21 if I didn't miscount) had voted.

GO OUT AND VOTE Y'ALL GODDAMMIT.

You know I only curse once every four years, and that is the first week of november!

But, shouldn't the cursing every 4 years come after the election, and not before it takes place. In 2000, I was inventing new curse words.... By the way, I've already voted B'back...from looking at the lines, I think most of GA has gone to the polls


Okay, now a veritable potpourri of fun and excitement with new polls...I'll try to be direct and not as sugary as the Obama infomecial last night...geez, that ad was so sweet that I wanted to pour it over some pancakes.

ARIZONA -- 1) McCain +7 -- CNN; 2) McCain +4 -- NBC

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +22 -- Field

COLORADO -- 1) Obama +4 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +6 -- Marist

FLORIDA -- Obama +4 -- Nat'l Jour.

IDAHO -- McCain +23 -- Harstad

INDIANA -- 1) McCain +3 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +1 -- Selzer

KENTUCKY -- McCain +12 -- Rasmussen

MINNESOTA -- 1) Obama +8 -- NBC; 2) Obama +19 -- MN Pub. Radio

MONTANA -- McCain +4 -- Rasmussen

NEVADA -- Obama +7 -- CNN

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +24 -- NHU

NEW JERSEY -- Obama +16 -- Research2000

NORTH CAROLINA -- 1) Obama +2 -- Ras.; 2) Obama +6 -- CNN; 3) Obama +4 -- Nat'l Jour.

OHIO -- 1) Obama +7 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +4 -- CNN

PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +12 -- CNN; 2) Obama +4 -- NBC

SOUTH CAROLINA -- McCain +11 -- NBC

TEXAS -- McCain +11 -- Univ of TX-Austin

VIRGINIA -- Obama +4 -- Nat'l Journal

Finally, a PA poll that is close as NBC has Obama with a 4pt lead. All morning I heard GOP pundits pointing to this one poll out of countless PA polls as evidence that McCain was making up ground and closing in. I doubt it, but time will tell.

We're seeing a lot of consistency now in North Carolina as Obama keeps churning out small leads.

Florida continues to show evidence of a slight lead for Obama, but that is such a wacked-out state that I doubt any sober person would bet money on any election scenario in the Sunshine State. Hell, they're still trying to figure out how to hold elections. Apparently, some ballots in Jacksonville were thrown out because they lacked signatures. My God, Florida, get your head out of Mickey Mouse's ass long enough to figure out this voting thing.

Montana is interesting because Ron Paul is on the ballot. Some conservatives, frustrated with McCain, could opt to vote Paul opening up some opportunity for Obama.

Syntax, I get that McCain is trying to play offense, but he should've first focused on the Bush states of '04 (after all, Bush won), then should've turned over more rocks and used multiple strategies. For instance, if he knew PA was the line in the sand state, he should have chosed Tom Ridge as VP. Also, he should have never dropped out of Michigan, why put your eggs in one basket. And if he was serious about MI, he should have chosen Romney as the running mate. A 'one-state' offense strategy is pretty simple, but you should circle the wagon with a home grown VP mate. I recall in 2000, Gore put so much focus on FL, and, in the end, had he not vacated Ohio so early, he could have won that state or utilized Clinton and kept West Va along with TN (again, McCain like Gore has put his eggs in one basket rather than utilize multiple strategies...very risky).