15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Your Halloween polls ...

North Carolina, Rasmussen Reports 10/29: Obama 50%, McCain 48%.
North Carolina, Civitas Institute 10/27-29: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, Barr 3%.
North Carolina, Insider Advantage for Politico 10/29: McCain 48%, Obama 48%.

Indiana, Rasmussen Reports 10/28-29: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.
Indiana, Research 2000 9/29-10/3: McCain 47%, Obama 47%.
Indiana, Survey USA 10/27-30: McCain 47%, Obama 47%, Barr 2%.

Wisconsin, Survey USA 10/28-29: Obama 55%, McCain 39%.
Wisconsin, Research 2000 for WISC TV 10/27-28: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

Kentucky, Rasmussen Reports 10/29: McCain 55%, Obama 43%.

South Carolina, Survey USA 10/28-29: McCain 52%, Obama 44%.
South Carolina, NBC News Princeton Survey Research Associates International 10/25-28: McCain 53%, Obama 42%.

Iowa, Survey USA 10/28-29: Obama 55%, McCain 40%.

Nevada, Reno Gazette Journal 10/25-28: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

New Hampshire, Suffolk University 10/27-29: Obama 52%, McCain 38%, Barr 1%, Nader 1%.
New Hampshire, Strategic Vision 10/27-29: Obama 50%, McCain 41%.
New Hampshire, Concord Monitor 10/28-30: Obama 51%, McCain 44%.
New Hampshire, Survey USA 10/29-30: Obama 53%, McCain 42%.

Montana, Rasmussen Reports 10/29: McCain 50%, Obama 46%.

Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision 10/27-29: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

Michigan, Det News EPIC MRA 10/26-28: Obama 50%, McCain 38%.
Michigan, Strategic Vision 10/27-29: Obama 54%, McCain 41%.
Michigan, Public Policy Polling 10/28-30: Obama 55%, McCain 42%.

New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind 10/23-29: Obama 53%, McCain 35%.
New Jersey, Survey USA 10/29-30: Obama 52%, McCain 42%.

Missouri, Insider Advantage for Politico 10/29: McCain 50%, Obama 47%.

Minnesota, Public Policy Polling 10/28-30: Obama 57%, McCain 41%.

Oregon, Public Policy Polling 10/28-30: Obama 57%, McCain 42%.

New Mexico, Public Policy Polling 10/28-30: Obama 58%, McCain 41%.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snappy missed alot of polls for Halloween, here are the rest. As always in life, I'm a bottom-line kind of guy, so I simply give you the margin (take it or leave it):

ARIZONA -- 1) McCain +4 -- ARG; 2) McCain +1 -- Research2000. CNN has now changed Arizona to a "lean McCain" state, and Obama has gone on the TV airwaves there this weekend.

ALASKA -- McCain +19 -- R2000

COLORADO -- 1) Obama +7 -- ARG; 2) Obama +10 -- PPP

GEORGIA -- 1) McCain +5 -- Rasmussen; 2) McCain +3 -- R2000. Despite the late frenzy of Democratic movement in this and the Senate race, Obama refuses to come campaign in the Peach State, relying solely on his TV ads and ground troops.

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +13 -- R2000

MISSOURI -- TIE -- ARG

MONTANA -- 1) McCain +4 -- R2000; 2) McCain +3 -- ARG

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 1) Obama +7 -- Ras.; 2) Obama +15 -- ARG

NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +1 -- R2000 -- CNN has officially moved ND to a "TossUP", and Obama announce today that the ads were going to intensify here as well as Arizona and Georgia.

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +13 -- PPP

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I would SOOOOO like to see McCain lose Arizona.....

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Syntax, I get that McCain is trying to play offense, but he should've first focused on the Bush states of '04 (after all, Bush won), then should've turned over more rocks and used multiple strategies. For instance, if he knew PA was the line in the sand state, he should have chosed Tom Ridge as VP. Also, he should have never dropped out of Michigan, why put your eggs in one basket. And if he was serious about MI, he should have chosen Romney as the running mate. A 'one-state' offense strategy is pretty simple, but you should circle the wagon with a home grown VP mate. I recall in 2000, Gore put so much focus on FL, and, in the end, had he not vacated Ohio so early, he could have won that state or utilized Clinton and kept West Va along with TN (again, McCain like Gore has put his eggs in one basket rather than utilize multiple strategies...very risky).

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. I agree that publicly announcing the withdrawal from MI was a bad move.

Since you like the bottom-line Sammie, here it is:

McCain made a big, perhaps fatal, mistake when he chose Palin as his VP.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And this one is for you, Snapcat. I know how much you love that freakin' map over at Pollster. So, here is a summary of what states are being called "Toss Ups" at four of my favorite electoral sources. Notice even they don't agree on what constitutes a tossup. This morning, MSNBC was ridiculing CNN for moving Nevada over to Obama, saying that any good poll watcher knows that Republicans always overperform the polls in the Silver State...good point I must say. Here you go, Snappy, Sammie's Exclusive Poll of Toss Up State Trackers ( I must work on that title):

MSNBC Oct 31st "Toss Ups" -- (6) -- Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio

Real Clear Politics Oct 31st "Toss Ups" -- (8) -- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota

CNN Oct 31st "Toss Ups" -- (6) -- Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio

Pollster Oct 31st "Toss Ups" -- (7) -- Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota

So, two tracker have six states as Toss Ups while one has seven and one has eight listed.

Only FL, IN, MO and NC were unanimous toss up states among the trackers, so we can assume those are the closest states.

Appearing on 3/4 trackers was North Dakota.

Emerging on 50% of the toss up trackers were Georgia, Ohio, and Montana.

Arizona and Nevada each made an appearance on one state toss up map.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. I agree that publicly announcing the withdrawal from MI was a bad move.

Since you like the bottom-line Sammie, here it is:

McCain made a big, perhaps fatal, mistake when he chose Palin as his VP.

I'm just not buying that. Syntax, your fixation on Palin is scary, man! McCain's problem was twofold: 1) a dramatic and frightening freefall of the US economy 30 days before the election when he happens to belong to the incumbaet party and 2) his economic resume, dubious economic quotes, and inability to communicate and respond on the issue during those first days of it's collapse. When these events happened, frankly, Palin became peripheral to the race. She did her part and gave him a big bounce when he needed it. It's his job to hold onto the bounce because ultimately most people don't vote for VP's. She tossed him a beautiful, tight spiral and he fumbled the ball on the way to the enzone...I can't blame the Palin choice for that.

Was she a good choice? No. She wasn't ready and they did a poor job vetting her. I do agree with you that the choice of Palin soured some people toward McCain's decision-making skills. Rightfully so, I might add. And, as I noted, if PA or MI were so critical to him, how could he think she would contribute more to his victory than Ridge or Romney? Oh, and Romney, he just happens to be well-regarded on economic issues...hmmm, that might have been a valuable asset for Sen McCain. But, Syntax, when all is said and done the bottom line on this election for McCain's poor showing will be our late-breaking economic collapse...hands down!!!!

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm just not buying that. Syntax, your fixation on Palin is scary, man!

Was she a good choice? No. She wasn't ready and they did a poor job vetting her. I do agree with you that the choice of Palin soured some people toward McCain's decision-making skills. Rightfully so, I might add. And, as I noted, if PA or MI were so critical to him, how could he think she would contribute more to his victory than Ridge or Romney? Oh, and Romney, he just happens to be well-regarded on economic issues...hmmm, that might have been a valuable asset for Sen McCain. But, Syntax, when all is said and done the bottom line on this election for McCain's poor showing will be our late-breaking economic collapse...hands down!!!!

My fixation with Palin? Sammie, don't make me go back in the threads and drag up your posts in August when you went over the top in your praise for McCain's choice of Palin.

You're making my point for me. Romney would have been the wiser choice. Picking Palin was a big mistake.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Update on this, as of Halloween:

North Carolina early voters total: 2,078,050

If the same number of voters of 2004 (which was 3,552,449) vote in 2008, then 58.5% have already cast their vote. Of those numbers, 52.6% are Democrats (29.6% Republican), so if EVERY Democrat voted for Obama, and that margin remained true, he'd have won this state. Of course, that's not really saying much, since 48.6% of 2004 voters were Democrats (37.4% Republican) and Bush won the state by a margin of 435,317 votes (56.02% to 43.58%), so there were faithless Democrats then (around 200,641 of them). We'll still have to wait and see on Tuesday.

Impressive showing in NC!!! Here in GA, 53.3% of the 2004 votes cast have already occured in early voting. Overall, 35% of Georgians have already voted. Today was the final day, and in my neck of the woods, some people waited 4-6 hours to vote. Frankly, I would've never waited in line that long...on Tuesday, no way will lines here be that long when all of the precincts are open.

Since we don't register by party affiliation, there is no way to know the Dem to Repub turnout ratio.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You're making my point for me. Romney would have been the wiser choice. Picking Palin was a big mistake.

Romney would have been problematical. Likely the southern states that are now toss-ups would have been worse, because Bible-belters don't like Mormons, counting them heretics, and fearing they want a Mormon theocracy.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Romney would have been problematical. Likely the southern states that are now toss-ups would have been worse, because Bible-belters don't like Mormons, counting them heretics, and fearing they want a Mormon theocracy.

Romney certainly has his probs down here. On the other hand, I see alot of Palin bumper stickers that don't even mention McCain as well as "Women for Palin" yard signs. As McCain watches states like Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia move to battleground status, she does help him.

My viewpoint regarding Palin has been somewhat mis-stated. As much as I thought she was a good pick, it was based on her demographics and excitement factor -- youthful, fresh, energizing, female, conservative....all things that McCain was pitifully short of. However, I knew nothing of her background or history; hell, I had barely ever heard of her, so my opinions were not based on anything substantial. That was McCain and his campaign's job to know a little something about the lady. Still, she did the job of a VP...she gave him an incredible bump and he ever so slightly even pulled ahead. But, people rarely vote for/against a VP. It was HIS job to hold onto that lead, and he was unable to do so. I don't disagree, however, that another choice could have ultimately proven more beneficial to him (Romney, Ridge), I simply cannot assign the GOP's impending loss on Palin or on McCain's choice of Palin. With the economic collapse, he would have lost with anyone on the ticket.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Great idea, ICO7! Let's look at Florida, Indiana and Nevada.

Of course, there are those damn morons living to my South in the Sunshine State. When it comes to voting, typically Floridians are so damn stupid that it makes me seriously doubt whether they could close an umbrella. (Okay, full disclosure, this is our annual Georgia-Florida Week where we drink outdoor cocktails and totally hate on our neighbors across the state line).

Nevertheless, here is what's happening during the Gators early voting:

But so far this year, early-voting Democrats are outnumbering Republicans at those sites by more than 20 percentage points, and a WSVN–Suffolk University poll has Barack Obama leading over John McCain 60% to 40% among early voters. What's more, the number of early voters could approach 30% of all of Florida's 11.2 million registered voters by the actual Nov. 4 Election Day. That massive turnout prompted Florida's GOP governor, Charlie Crist, to flash his bipartisan bona fides this week and lengthen early voting on weekdays by four hours (while letting each county decide whether to lengthen the normal hours this weekend).

Florida, the nation's largest swing state, with 27 electoral votes, is one of 36 states that allow early voting, which increases convenience for voters and reduces Election Day stress for officials. Other states, like Nevada and Georgia, are seeing similarly high turnouts.

This is a great read on our most fascinating political state in regards to early voting from Time magazine:
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1855049,00.html?imw=Y


And, in Indiana, early voting turnout is at 10%.

Four days before Election Day, more than 10 percent of registered Indiana voters have already voted in the state's most hotly contested presidential race since 1964.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081101/LOCAL18/811010465

And it looks live Nevada is a sure thing for Obama based on early voting turnout:

The question must be asked, has Barack Obama already won there?

As of late Thursday night, registered Democrats had cast 225,670 of the 438,129 ballots (51.5%) in the two most populous counties, Las Vegas’s Clark County and Reno’s Washoe. Republicans cast 31.3% with the remainder cast by Independents.

Those two counties account for about 90% of the state’s turnout. Early voting is expected to make up 60% of the Silver State’s 2008 ballots, and with a 20-point margin already banked, assuming most of the registered Democrats voted for Obama, the party goes into Election Day with a big cushion

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/31/early-voting-suggests-nevada-victory-at-hand-for-obama/

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

My viewpoint regarding Palin has been somewhat mis-stated. As much as I thought she was a good pick, it was based on her demographics and excitement factor -- youthful, fresh, energizing, female, conservative....all things that McCain was pitifully short of. However, I knew nothing of her background or history; hell, I had barely ever heard of her, so my opinions were not based on anything substantial. That was McCain and his campaign's job to know a little something about the lady. Still, she did the job of a VP...she gave him an incredible bump and he ever so slightly even pulled ahead.

I think you are overstating things a bit by claiming that McCain's post convention bump was all attributable to Palin. She probably played a part, but all candidates almost always get that convention bump and McCain's was very similar (in size and longevity) to Obama's.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's some early voting results from CO, which ended Friday, Oct. 31:

So far, more than 298,029 people in Colorado have gone to an early voting location and cast their ballots. That's about 11 percent of eligible voters.

Election officials started processing those ballots last Saturday. While officials cannot tally the vote until 7 p.m. Tuesday -- after the polls have closed -- the ballots can be checked and fed into counting machines.

Officials report 993,542 Coloradans have already voted by mail-in ballot. Registered voters can pick up a mail-in ballot from their county clerk until Friday.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/politics/17848665/detail.html

Unlike other states, Democrats have only a slight lead in early voting over Republicans and overall turnout has not been as high as elsewhere. However, my guess is that the large unaffiliated vote in CO is going for Obama.

CO also has mail-in balloting. Just under 1 million have been received so far.

The above graphic is from a good site on early voting that Pollmeisters might enjoy:

http://www.earlyvoting.net/blog/

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Two days off from early voting; take a break, everyone!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think Palin helps with the base, but not with the independents.

I also think we'd be looking a different set of numbers had Huckabee beat McCain in the primaries. He would have made it competitive with Obama.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls...of course, there are all pre-illegal aunt November surprise scandal.


ARKANSAS -- McCain +7 -- ARG

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +14 -- SurveyUSA

FLORIDA -- 1) TIE -- Datamar; 2) Obama +4 -- ARG; 3) Obama +2 -- Mason Dixon

INDIANA -- TIE -- ARG

IOWA -- Obama +14 -- Research2000

KENTUCKY -- McCain +17 -- R2000

MINNESOTA -- Obama +15 -- R2000

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +13 -- R2000

NORTH CAROLINA -- Obama +2 -- R2000

OREGON -- 1) Obama +12 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +16 -- R2000

PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +6 -- ARG; 2) Obama +4 -- Rasmussen; 3) Obama +8 -- Muhlenberg

WISCONSIN -- Obama +10 -- UW

WYOMING -- McCain +25 -- R2000

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

On election night, I think if Florida goes to Obama, we can all go to bed.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some polls out today from MasonDixon really show some alarming tightening in a couple of key states. McCain has taken a 2 point lead in Ohio, and a 3 point lead in North Carolina. The tax hammering has resonated with some voters.

Here are all the latest polls. The one from Ohio Univ seems like a true outlier.

OHIO -- 1) McCain +2 -- MasonDixon; Obama +6 -- Columbus Dispatch; 3) Obama +16 -- Ohio Univ.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen; Obama +7 -- Morning Call

IOWA -- Obama +17 -- Selzer/Des Moines Register

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +3 -- MasonDixon

VIRGINIA -- Obama +3 -- MasonDixon

COLORADO -- Obama +5 -- MasonDixon

MICHIGAN -- Obama +16 -- Detroit Free Press

NEVADA -- Obama +4 -- MasonDixon

SOUTH DAKOTA -- McCain +9 -- Rasmussen

KENTUCKY -- McCain +9 -- Mason Dixon

MAINE -- Obama +13 -- Rasmussen

MINNESOTA -- Obama +11 -- Star Tribune

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

RCP has officially put Ohio back to being a Toss Up State.

McCain is going to take Ohio. I also see him taking Florida, as well.

I made a Premature Final Prediction, which included Ohio and Florida going to McCain already .... but I've changed my opinion on Missouri and will probably give that to McCain, after all.

Therefore, I'm looking at:

291 vs 247 Obama.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some polls out today from MasonDixon really show some alarming tightening in a couple of key states. McCain has taken a 2 point lead in Ohio, and a 3 point lead in North Carolina. The tax hammering has resonated with some voters.

Sammie Do you know if people who have already voted are excluded from these recent Mason-Dixon polls? If so, that might explain the drop in support for Obama in OH, NC, FL.