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On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

EJMichaels said:
My understanding is that a case fatality rate is based on cases of infections that have run their course -- resolved, death, etc. Not those recently infected with unknown outcomes. Based on that, I think the cfr is around 30%. This virus has an especially long clinical period -- onset of symptoms to recovered or not recovered -- so we just don't know for many of them. Plus, the data sources aren't considered very reliable.
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You're correct. CFR only examines cases that have reached a final disposition.

CFR = # of deaths ÷ (# deaths + # resolved)

If you look at this page, in the lower left hand corner, there's a graph of the cumulative number of cases. The denominator in the CFR calculation today would be 3,119 resolved cases. That number of cases threshold was crossed around 27-Jan (11 days ago). The question that has been in my mind is why the number of resolved cases reported is so low. The information that we've been given is that most young and healthy people "recover within a few days". If that's the case, why isn't the number of recovered patients higher?

The press has been saying that the mortality rate is 2% and you're absolutely correct- that is a premature measure. If someone tests positive after exposure but it takes 5-10 days for them to show symptoms and another week to reach a final disposition (death vs recovery), then that low death rate might be premature because of the length of time that it takes between diagnosis to final disposition.
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

9-Feb-2020:

2019-nCoV stats:
Cases reported: 37,591 (up from 34,947 yesterday)
Cases reported in the US - 12
Cases reported in Canada - 7
Deaths: 814 (up from 725 yesterday)

There are now 320 people in another 27 countries who have tested positive for the virus.
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

This article from the AP has an interesting angle. There have been occasional reports about how China has been building raw material extraction facilities in Africa. Who knew that there are now 1 million Chinese nationals on the African continent? The possibility of introduction of coronavirus or other communicable diseases from Asia into Africa is something that no one has been thinking about.

‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus [AP]
At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.
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Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

KaraBulut said:
This article from the AP has an interesting angle. There have been occasional reports about how China has been building raw material extraction facilities in Africa. Who knew that there are now 1 million Chinese nationals on the African continent? The possibility of introduction of coronavirus or other communicable diseases from Asia into Africa is something that no one has been thinking about.

‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus [AP]
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I have been waiting for African cases to emerge....there can almost be no question but that Chinese nationals have flown into Africa in the last month and at least one of them is infected.
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

A couple of weeks ago, I read an article that pinpointed the expected PEAK of the epidemic to be February 8 -- were they wrong? Or, should we start seeing total cases decline soon?
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

swerve said:
A couple of weeks ago, I read an article that pinpointed the expected PEAK of the epidemic to be February 8 -- were they wrong? Or, should we start seeing total cases decline soon?
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Unknown. The Chinese government has been very aggressive with the quarantine. But there is an economic impact to their efforts, so it's unclear how long they will continue it.

The source of the infection and the extent of the spread of the infection is unknown. The WHO acknowledged that the number of new cases has decreased the past two days but recommended caution in reading too much into the decrease.

It's also worth noting that the "decrease" still resulted in 2,644‬ new cases yesterday.


 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

??? what happened to my recent post in this thread?
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

DepravedMuscleFTL said:
??? what happened to my recent post in this thread?
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It was flagged for review. The tweet you linked suggests that millions of people were protesting for freedom on the streets of China. Can you provide a source link to confirm that claim?
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

DepravedMuscleFTL said:
what? we are fact checking memes now? or just MY memes?

[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-16/protests-swell-as-hong-kong-rejects-leader-s-compromise[/url]

As Many as Two Million Protesters Hit Hong Kong Streets
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As I noted, someone other than me flagged your post for review. Though Hong Kong is technically a Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, it falls under the control of the HKSAR Government located in Hong Kong. Hence the statement that people were protesting for freedom on “the streets of China” is misleading. The Bloomberg article you linked is from June of 2019. A Bloomberg article from yesterday addresses the current situation in Hong Kong and notes that the pause in protests there began after a landslide win by pro-democracy forces in November. If anything, the mishandling of the virus by the Chinese government has added fuel to the Hong Kongers’ unrest. Yesterday’s article notes that protesters are currently reassessing their tactics.

The frequency of larger-scale protests began subsiding after a landslide win for pro-democracy forces in last November’s district council elections, followed by the Chinese New Year holidays and now the virus scare. There have only been two major rallies -- in early December and on New Year’s Day -- in the last two months, compared with regular protests at the height of the movement.

Hong Kong Activists See Virus Fueling More Support for Movement (Bloomberg; February 8, 2020)
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Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

10-Feb-2020:

2019-nCoV stats:
Cases reported: 40,573 (up from 37,591 yesterday)
Cases reported in the US - 12
Cases reported in Canada - 7
Deaths: 910 (up from 814 yesterday)
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

KaraBulut said:
7-Feb-2020:The Japan cruise ship in quarantine has had 61 people test positive for the virus.
Click to expand...
Update- the number of cases has doubled.

At least 24 Americans among those infected on Diamond Princess cruise ship [CNN]
There are at least 24 Americans among the 135 people infected with the Wuhan coronavirus aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, according to information from Princess Cruises and a CNN tally.
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Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

Sadly, most people can't sympathize with something like this until it directly affects them or their country. We must show compassion and care to those dealing with this now and help in anyway we can. I talked to a friend in China who said if you were to need an ambulance, you can forget it because they either don't answer the call or show up. Gas stations are closed, public transportation is bad, emergency rooms are nothing more than long waiting lists.
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

sixthson said:
I talked to a friend in China who said if you were to need an ambulance, you can forget it because they either don't answer the call or show up. Gas stations are closed, public transportation is bad, emergency rooms are nothing more than long waiting lists.
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This is so sad. An awful lot of people are going to die without even contracting the virus.
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

What age are the dead?
The Spanish flu killed mostly the strong and healthy ...
 
Re: Trump this.

^ I read an article about his budget cuts and the Coronavirus. There isn't enough money to prepare for it hitting the US nor dealing with it when it does.

This isn't the article, but it will do:

US preparedness to deal with the threat of coronavirus has been hampered by the personnel and budget cuts made by the Trump administration over the past three years, according to health experts.

There is no one in the White House tasked specifically to oversee a coordinated government-wide response in the event of a pandemic, since the post of senior director for global health security and biothreats on the national security council (NSC) was eliminated last May.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared
 
Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

Telstra said:
What age are the dead?
The Spanish flu killed mostly the strong and healthy ...
Click to expand...

Do you have proof of that? I'd like to see a source.
 
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