Clinton wins OH & RI, Obama wins VT, TX??

[iman]

No, it really isn't increasingly clear that Hillary is the best choice. Maybe to the Feminists it is "clear", but to everyone else, it really isn't. Otherwise, your gal would have won more primaries and caucuses than she has.

Must be a lot of "Feminists" in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Who knew?

 

[NickCole]

Nick using a source whose reasoning skills are about as bad as yours does not help your case.

I didn't offer it as support. It's sound reasoning, though.

Perhaps you're correct and Obama can't win Ohio against McCain come November but you have offered no proof to support your case. The only proof you have offered is that he could not beat Mrs. Clinton in Ohio.

There is no proof for something like that. There's only reasoning. You and many others disagree with me. But I was sure Clinton was going to win last night and the same brain came up with the reasoning for that, while the conventional wisdom was giving it to Obama.

And just for the record Mr. Obama received 979,000 votes in Ohio to Mr. McCain's 462,000 and from that you conclude he can't beat him come November.

I think McCain's win was more like 630,000. But regardless. McCain wasn't running against a Democrat last night and the GOP turnout was half that of Dems. If you use data like that for your reasoning, no wonder you're off.

And Clinton won a huge victory over Obama.


Clinton 1,212,077
Obama 982,172

I'll stick with my reasoning; it's done well by me for a lot of years.

 

[naked gent]

A Democrat is not going to win the White House without Ohio and this proves Obama can't carry it.

There is no proof for something like that. There's only reasoning. You and many others disagree with me.

I'd be glad to disagree with you Nick and it would make it easier to do so if you could keep your story straight.

 

[NickCole]

Did anyone besides me notice that some of the "news" commentators were about to burst into tears because of this.

Unbiased my butt. Chris Matthews is broken hearted.

That was kind of hilarious wasn't it? What a putz.

Keith Olbermann reminds me of "Max Headroom". I'm not even sure he a real person. Anyway he gives me the willies.

Me too. He got very weird very fast after becoming so popular. I surf away from MSNBC a lot. Yucky.

Obama didn't have that unnerving smirk he usually sports while giving his sermonic speeches last night. That tells me he is rattled by this turn of events.

Yep. Wouldn't want him to be the one in the White House when the phone rings at 3 a.m.

Clinton's speech was concise, inspiring, well delivered and included all important specifics.

She was excellent. Obama's inability to look away from the teleprompter compared with her engagement with the crowd was striking.

 

[Centexfarmer]

Speaking of Big States, do you actually think Texas, of all states, will go for Clinton in November?

The Big States will go as they always do ... California and New York will go Blue ... Texas and probably Florida will go Red ... no matter who is the nominee on the Democratic side.

That's an assumption on your part.

I've never seen the Texas Democratic Party as motivated as they have been the past couple of years to defeat Republicans at ALL levels of State Government here in Texas.

We've seen a record turn-out for Democrats in the Primaries, and there are many Republicans here on a State level who've seen the writing on the wall, and have either switched parties, or have resigned their seats, rather than run against a Democrat this year.

I don't assume to know what goes on in California, so it would serve you to mind your own assumptions.

 

[NickCole]

I'd be glad to disagree with you Nick and it would make it easier to do so if you could keep your story straight.

Originally Posted by NickCole
A Democrat is not going to win the White House without Ohio and this proves Obama can't carry it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCole
There is no proof for something like that. There's only reasoning. You and many others disagree with me.

Sorry; I guess I should have used "indicates" rather than "proves." Lazy language, a prof of mine used to call it. Next time I use the word "proves" in that context I'll try to remember to put a smirky smiley next to it in case you still haven't figured out that future events can't be literally proved.

 

[snapcat]

^Maybe you could explain how Obama is going to win an election without Ohio, Penna., Michigan or Florida? Those states will go for McCain or Clinton, but will not vote for Obama.

Obama has a strategy to win the nomination, not the White House.

I think you are correct with regard to Florida. I think it's possible, but not probable for Ohio & Pennsylvania. But I completely disagree with you on Michigan.

I would also point out that life does not begin and end on the two coasts. There are a lot of votes from Denver to St. Louis. And a lot of electoral votes, for sure.

Obama has won in many of the swing states. And Obama is running a 50 state campaign, as Howard Dean suggested. Hillary is not. I still think the West will be the key to a Democratic victory in November. And I think that only Obama can poach many of the independents who would likely vote for McCain over Clinton.

For some posters - not Iman, just making a seperate point here - to disregard the Heartland of America as irellevent, strikes me as quite arrogant. The big states do not a majority make.

 

[snapcat]

Is there a video of it. I would love to see it.

Hannity had it on the radio on Monday or Tuesday, so I'm sure there is video floating out there somewhere.

 

[Sausy]

Virginia is winnable for Obama.Wisconsin,Missouri,Minnesota,Maryland...all key midsize states I don't see going for Hillary nowhere nohow.And Michigan and Ohio will go McCain if Obama is the nominee?Don't think soObama also crushed Hillary in Illinois,where Hillasry seems to have forgotten she's from.Obama has Kansas roots,on his mom's side.He may pick off a competitive red state or two.And with demographics changing,some of the once solidly red West is more amenable towards supporting a Democrat.

Hillary leads in Pennsylvania and may get a 55-45 type win there....but Obama then has North Carolina with 115 delegates two weeks later,looking good there.Looking at the primaries left for May/June,Hillary may split them but the delegate numbers at the convention will be close.It appears that there could be a redo of Michigan and Ohio,because ultimately no one seriously wants to discount the voters in those states from being represented.The party cannnot count the results of elections not sanctioned and mostly uncompeted for actively among the candidates....where the declaration of the national party to not award any delegates in disciplining the respective state parties for their insubordination of party requests to not front load before Super Tuesday did much to depress the turnouts in both states.Yet to in this climate of a virtual balance between Hillary and Obama,offically sanctioned primaries may help ultimately to decide this race once and for all.If Hillary can duplicate those wins in more equitable conditions,her claim to represent theparty's best chance to win is more persuasive....and if the superdelegates then break for her,then them's the breaks and so be it.

I'm an Obama supporter,and hope he can still win the nomination,but Hillary is tough and resilient and she definitely is qualified.I may not like her much,but I like John McCain's finding of his inner conservative,and the prospects of four years of more of the same from the conservatives dominating the GOP much less.She'd have my vote,if not quite my heart.

 

[snapcat]

Oh, I agree, one can never count Hillary out.

She's the "Cher" of politics. She'll never completely go away.

 

[Sammie13]

It's easy to over-complicate the electoral math.

All Hillary has to do is win the same states that John Kerry won (most of those were also won by Gore in '00) and then add the 1 state of OHIO and boom...victory is hers.

She has proven extremely strong in Ohio. And it shouldn't be too hard to win the Kerry states (never hurts to have 1-2 back-up states in case of a "Kerry" state switches to the other side.

Math can also work for Obama, but may require an Ohio replacement state, but I'm not sure where he finds that state...most of his strengths are in states that Repubs will win in Novembers.

 

[MystikWizard]

That's an assumption on your part.

I've never seen the Texas Democratic Party as motivated as they have been the past couple of years to defeat Republicans at ALL levels of State Government here in Texas.

We've seen a record turn-out for Democrats in the Primaries, and there are many Republicans here on a State level who've seen the writing on the wall, and have either switched parties, or have resigned their seats, rather than run against a Democrat this year.

I don't assume to know what goes on in California, so it would serve you to mind your own assumptions.

Please.

You know how popular George Bush is in Texas. You mean to tell me that you think Texas is going to actually vote for the Democratic Nominee? When is the last time Texas ever voted Blue in the General Election?

California and New York will go Blue and Texas will go Red. And like I said, Florida will probably go Red thanks to the Bush Presence down there.

 

[MystikWizard]

Virginia is winnable for Obama.Wisconsin,Missouri,Minnesota,Maryland...all key midsize states I don't see going for Hillary nowhere nohow.

Maryland already voted. Obama won.

 

[TheGM27]

Did anyone else noticed a lot of the Exit Polls, the base that was voting for Obama (white men, the young), switched over to Clinton. ANYYTHING can happen between now and April in PA.

 

[Sammie13]

Hillary is doing a good job, too, with rural voters...something the Dems soarly need to get back as they bombed in rural areas in 2000 & 2004. She visted all the counties in OH and won all but 5 out of 88. In Missouri, she ultimately lost that state by a narrow margin, but still carried all but 2 or 3 counties. She carried rural Virgina and Tennessee as well, and a big showing in rural Texas. Her weakness in in alot of urban areas due to Obama picking up minority voters. He would appear to be trending for the general election as one who can only win the urban areas and college towns. Obama needs to learn how to speak to the blue collar and agricultural voter in a hurry.

 

[Sausy]

Maryland already voted. Obama won.

I'm talking about swing type states Obama can carry in the fall if he's the Dem nominee.I saw the Potomac primaries coverage last month,and was ecstatic at the size of his victories in Maryland and Virginia....and Virginia could be in play for the Democrats because of the growth of its more liberal northern areas.The outstanding turnout for the Democratic primary is reason for optimism a Democrat can win there in the fall election,and Obama can get the independents excited as well to turn out.

 

[MystikWizard]

I'm talking about swing type states Obama can carry in the fall if he's the Dem nominee.I saw the Potomac primaries coverage last month,and was ecstatic at the size of his victories in Maryland and Virginia....and Virginia could be in play for the Democrats because of the growth of its more liberal northern areas.The outstanding turnout for the Democratic primary is reason for optimism a Democrat can win there in the fall election,and Obama can get the independents excited as well to turn out.

Maryland is a traditional Blue state, anyway. I lived there for 29 years so I know the state very well.

Obama would carry Maryland without fail in the General Election.

 

[Sausy]

Maryland is a traditional Blue state, anyway. I lived there for 29 years so I know the state very well.

Obama would carry Maryland without fail in the General Election.

I was thinking I was in error about calling Maryland a swing state,though I think Virginia well could be.I think Obama would have a better chance of taking a red-leaning state with changing demographics,like some in the West and the other swing type states like Missouri,Minnesota,and Wisconsin that had strong turnouts in Obama victories.(I know he just nipped Hillary in Missouri,but that victory itself was not expected).

 

[Kulindahr]

You've also got to remember that more than 60 Texas delegates are coming from the Texas caucuses.

I think it's still quite possible that Clinton will win the popular vote in TX while Obama wins more delegates.

What's the latest on that?

CNN made a comment (I didn’t catch it all) earlier that said something that Florida and Michigan could/may be heading to court in order to give Hillary Clinton the delegate counts.

How like George Bush.
Except it wasn't Bush who decided to take it to court, was it?

What wasn't fair about the vote in Michigan? No one made the voters go out and vote for her. I know in Florida, everyone was on the ballot, meaning she won that fair.

I'm not trying to start any trouble, as I believe everyone can have their own opinion. However, would you have the same feelings, if the tables were turned and Obama had won both Florida and Michigan.

No one won in Florida and Michigan, because the Democratic Party didn't have primaries there.

For some posters - not Iman, just making a seperate point here - to disregard the Heartland of America as irellevent, strikes me as quite arrogant. The big states do not a majority make.

For the last few election cycles, Democrats have tended to be extremely arrogant. Ignoring the heartland is something they so love to do that they'd like to abolish the Electoral College so they can totally ignore it.
I'm going to rephrase your closing line:

The big states do not a country make.===​

 

[Centexfarmer]

Please.

You know how popular George Bush is in Texas. You mean to tell me that you think Texas is going to actually vote for the Democratic Nominee? When is the last time Texas ever voted Blue in the General Election?

California and New York will go Blue and Texas will go Red. And like I said, Florida will probably go Red thanks to the Bush Presence down there.

That's not what you originally said.

However, I'm willing to bet you lunch that Texas will not vote AS RED as it has in the past.