If either the Libertarian Party or the Green Party achieve 15% in national polling, they will be on the main debate stage with the Republican and Democratic party nominees. Looks like Gary Johnson is right up there and Jill is about halfway there. Both Johnson and Stein will pick off their share of unhappy supporters from the main parties, but the question is if it will be enough to hit the 15%.
I think Johnson has a great chance at it given where he is at already and we will see if the Bernie or Bust crowd gets on board or not. Will be a very interesting election cycle ... probably the most interesting since Bush Sr. vs Clinton vs Perot.
The two major political parties want to make sure this does not happen. The last such election, in which a candidate outside the two parties was in the presidential debates (and his running mate was in the vice-presidential debates), was Ross Perot in 1992.
I actually don’t buy into this topic thread’s poll being what will actually play out on Election Day 2016. But, I am not dismissive of the possibility.
In 1992, the R-and-D (George Bush unseated by Bill Clinton) combined votes totaled about 80.5 percent—while Perot received just over 18 percent—in the U.S. Popular Vote. In 1996, Bob Dole and a re-elected Bill Clinton combined for about 90 percent—while Ross Perot received 8 percent—in the U.S. Popular Vote.
Since 2000, the two-party votes were as follows (Republican vs. Democratic nominees):
• 2000: 96.25 percent (George W. Bush 47.87% vs. Al Gore 48.38%)
• 2004: 99.00 percent (George W. Bush 50.73% vs. John Kerry 48.27%)
• 2008: 98.58 percent (John McCain 45.66% vs. Barack Obama 52.92%)
• 2012: 98.18 percent (Mitt Romney 47.16% vs. Barack Obama 51.02%)
Since 2000, there has been no greater than 3.75 percent going to candidates outside the two major political parties to elect a president of the United States.
For Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor of New Mexico, and for Green Jill Stein…these polls suggest they can combine for as much as 10 to 15 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote.
Let’s say that ends up happening. How would that impact the race?
I think Gary Johnson and/or Jill Stein would end up, like Ross Perot, not carrying any states. But, it would be good for the country to tell the Republicans and Democrats—who like their two-party duopoly—that voters recognize they can seek an alternative and don’t have to feel they must vote between the Rs and Ds.
What if Johnson and Stein carried at least one state each?
They would carry like a 1912 Progressive Party nominee Teddy Roosevelt, a 1948 States’ Rights nominee Strom Thurmond, and a 1968 American Independent nominee George Wallace: alternative R or D. Teddy Roosevelt’s 1912 states—six of them—carried in the 1908 Republican column for the 1912 unseated William Howard Taft. Strom Thurmond’s 1948 states—four of them—carried in the 1944 Democratic column for the fourth and last election of Franklin Roosevelt. (Harry Truman is the only example here of an incumbent, or from the incumbent White House party, who prevailed.) And George Wallace’s 1968 states—five of them—still tended to carry in the Democratic column during that period (before full realignment, and counter-realignment, of the map we currently recognize these days).
For Libertarian Gary Johnson to carry a single state…I’d go with looking at a Republican base state like Utah. For Green Jill Stein to carry a single state…I’d go with looking at a Democratic base state like Bernie Sanders’s home state Vermont.
I will give the subject some leeway. Perhaps, with Election 2016, the combined R-vs.-D vote—Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton—will be no more than 94 or 95—rather than the typical 98 or 99—percent in the U.S. Popular Vote. But, make no mistake—The People have to actually vote outside the two parties to help make this possible.
