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Gay Marriage Updates By State

^ Yes, the pundits are saying that, if the election had gone otherwise, almost surely the antigay Constitutional Amendment would have been the very first thing the newly-empowered Republicans would have done in that state.

That PROVES, of course, that their first priority is jobs, jobs, jobs. :rolleyes:
 
Jobs would have been the priority in Iowa...jobs that involve helping the anti-gay bill pass.
 
I think that now we have staved off any chances to repeal gay marriage in Iowa for good. At this point, the soonest it could go on the ballot would be November of 2016.
 
metta said:
A campaign to legalize gay marriage in Maine has gathered sufficient signatures to qualify for next year's ballot.

"backers hope to make Maine the first state to legalize the institution through the same democratic process."


http://www.ontopmag.com/article.aspx?id=10031
Click to expand...

Hmm, it would probably still be close. But with it being a presidential election resulting in greater turnout and 3 years after the last failed effort, it just might pass.
 
hotatlboi said:
Hmm, it would probably still be close. But with it being a presidential election resulting in greater turnout and 3 years after the last failed effort, it just might pass.
Click to expand...

In addition, we have Marc Mutty, the head of the effort which repealed gay marriage back in 2009, addmitting on camera that the claim of "gay marriage being taught in public schools" is untrue. I hope that appears in campaign adds in every state which has such a referendum in 2012.
 
JockBoy87 said:
I share your optimism.

Now there are projections around that predict the last date an anti-gay ballot could pass in every state. Cannot find any good ones right now.

Do you know of any?



Maine's anti-discrimination law was repealed by a vote in 2000 but was successful in 2005. That's five years.

Three years might just be possible.
Click to expand...

-The one Nate Silver did said that by 2014 such a ban would fail in Iowa.

-Regarding Maine, the anti-discrimination law was very narrowly repealed in 2000 (I believe with just 50.1% of the vote), while in 2005 it was kept by a wide margin (I believe with like 55.6%). Remember too that this was a national election year vs. an off election year, while in 2012 it will be the opposite for us (as compared to 2009). I also think that because the wording of the question is so straightforward it will benefit our side too.
 
RazorzEdge88 said:
Justice delayed is justice denied. What are they going to do, wait until 2016?
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That's what Cali will be waiting for if the court case is not resolved with the removal of prop 8.

They first voted on gay marriage in 2000, then 2008. If the court case is not successful it will likely take another 8 years to vote on it again successfully.

Assuming Obama wins reelection (which is looking increasingly likely) 2014 will probably be another big GOP year.
 
Kulindahr said:
Justice failed is also justice denied. At the moment the numbers don't look good in Oregon.

But if you'd seen the TV campaign they've been running -- it's got people talking.
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Oh I agree completely. All states wth campaigns in 2012 should run ads like that (parents talking about how their children opened them up to accepting same sex marriage), and also ones involving Marc Mutty from Maine exposing the lie about gay marriage being taught in public schools and ones featuring LGBT servicemen and women.
 
scream4ever said:
Oh I agree completely. All states wth campaigns in 2012 should run ads like that (parents talking about how their children opened them up to accepting same sex marriage), and also ones involving Marc Mutty from Maine exposing the lie about gay marriage being taught in public schools and ones featuring LGBT servicemen and women.
Click to expand...

Don't forget a campaign explaining that churches can't be required to do gay marriages or even to have gay members.

That's the way to do it -- from different directions. Never think that just one approach will do the trick. The ads showing "gays are just people like you" become more effective in conjunction with ads of "gays and lesbians are defending our country" and the others.

Personally I'd like to do a series of ads of Christians pointing out verses like "love your neighbor as yourself" and "render unto Caesar what is Caesar's" and "My kingdom is not of this world" and others that set out how none of this is the church's business.
 
JockBoy87 said:
I believe they really think we will win at the Supreme Court.

In that case, why would they spoil that opportunity with a moot case?
Click to expand...

I'm not arguing for a redo in 2012, I generally agree that they should wait and see where the court case goes for now, the main question being how will the most powerful man in America aka Anthony Kennedy feel about it.
 
RazorzEdge88 said:
What numbers? Please cite something.

The numbers look fine from everything that I've seen.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/06/oregon-in-favor-of-legal-gay-marriage-kitzhaber-solid.html

(PPP consistently gives very conservative estimates for the success of gay marriage.)
Click to expand...

A six-point spread isn't enough -- the fanatics vote almost totally. The prayer chains at churches go to work, calling to make sure everyone voted; they go to their neighbors and make sure they voted -- 'turnout' among the Elephangelicals tops 99%. Then there are the skinheads and neo-Nazis, who almost never vote -- but they'll vote against gays.

If it was a ten-point spread, it would be worth shooting for -- I'd guess it would pass by one or two percent then.
 
JockBoy87 said:
Love that MLK quote!
Click to expand...

So do I. But if you invoked that in Oregon in a marriage equality drive, you'd lost just about all the black vote right there -- more than a few will agree it's fair for gays to be allowed to marry, but the moment that issue is compared to the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King, Jr., they're against it.
 
Kulindahr said:
A six-point spread isn't enough -- the fanatics vote almost totally. The prayer chains at churches go to work, calling to make sure everyone voted; they go to their neighbors and make sure they voted -- 'turnout' among the Elephangelicals tops 99%. Then there are the skinheads and neo-Nazis, who almost never vote -- but they'll vote against gays.

If it was a ten-point spread, it would be worth shooting for -- I'd guess it would pass by one or two percent then.
Click to expand...

Polls will be a more accurate reflection this year though in a Presidential election year when turnout is higher.
 
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