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Gay Marriage Updates By State

Thynight said:
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20120111/UPDATE/120111017/1001


The numbers are looking good for Washington.
Click to expand...

The article was just recently edited. When I read it earlier today, it reported that Karen Frasier was an undecided/leaning Yes Democrat vote, but she must have just come out in support of it.

It's becoming very evident that the issue of gay marriage is reaching/has reached the tipping point when legislators who voted against the domestic partnership law 3 years ago are even considering voting for a gay marriage bill.
 
scream4ever said:
The article was just recently edited. When I read it earlier today, it reported that Karen Frasier was an undecided/leaning Yes Democrat vote, but she must have just come out in support of it.

It's becoming very evident that the issue of gay marriage is reaching/has reached the tipping point when legislators who voted against the domestic partnership law 3 years ago are even considering voting for a gay marriage bill.
Click to expand...



I think those that opposed domestic partnerships are finding it harder to justify their positions. They want to keep their jobs, but most people are not going for the old reasoning.

With any luck this will pass and within a year or two Oregon will follow.
 
scream4ever said:
"I would feel diminished by denying another human the ability to exercise those same rights and freedoms."

That's from a Republican people.

We can all thank Cuomo and the New York Senate Republicans for starting this trend!!!
Click to expand...

I've been thinking lately that a portion of PacNW Republicans have been getting tired of the 'evangelical' thunder, seeing it as more worthy of Torquemada than a republican. I've heard a little more of Eisenhower and Reagan, and less of Bush, too, which is hopeful.

Now if only the 'evangelicals' would listen to the evangel.....
 
JockBoy87 said:
That is astonishingly rapid change in Washington. I remember when we just won the referendum campaign and sighed over the years we would need to gather support for marriage equality. Practically overnight it is there.
Click to expand...

Of course, that is a concern there. The referendum on domestic partnerships was so narrowly approved that a referendum challenge on gay marriage if enacted, might not yet have the support to uphold it.
 
JockBoy87 said:
That isn't what confirmation bias means.

Confirmation bias doesn't depend on the veracity of information.

A research paper may show all true information, but be confirmation biased in omitting other results which are true as well.

Note that the question of support for marriage equality is often 'dumbed' down to a matter of 'yes' or 'no,' when in fact the question is often posed in a number of ways which bias the outcome. As a result, a respondent can maintain superficially inconsistent opinions.

NOM typically asks questions like "Do you support marriage as being between a man and a woman?"

Gallup may ask "Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to marry?"

A respondent can say yes to both and maintain a consistent position on the issue.

Venn.GIF
Click to expand...

A bigger problem that is impossible to fix in gay marriage polls is social desirability bias. It has resulted in nearly every gay marriage poll being inaccurately biased in favor so far.
 
The problem with the Republician party today is that the moderates are either drowned out or forced out.
Thus the only people left in the party are the religious right backed ones.
 
Okay guys this is fucking amazing. From a Washington Republican House member:

http://pamshouseblend.firedoglake.c...o-support-washingtons-marriage-equality-bill/

This is like nothing we've ever seen before.

Also, Chris Christie continues to backtrack away from vetoing gay marriage:

http://www.towleroad.com/2012/01/christieveto.html

He now even appears open to it, although still disagreeing with it.

BTW Kastama is now a Yes in Washington! One more to go and the Senate has the votes to pass it!
 
Washington Senate to vote on gay marriage bill Wednesday

OLYMPIA, Wash. — The Senate will vote Wednesday on a measure to legalize same-sex marriage in Washington state.


The Senate Rules Committee voted today to move the bill to a floor vote. Lt. Gov. Brad Owen, who is president of the Senate, pulled the bill for advancement, saying "it would be hypocritical for me to not support this bill" because of work he has done with schools and diversity.
Click to expand...


http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20120131/UPDATE/120131037/1001



Sounds like tomorrow may be the day.
 
JockBoy87 said:
Rumor is we just got a 26th vote in the Senate. Two vote margin for passage now, at least.
Click to expand...

Yup, Brian Hatfield announced his support. That's big because he voted against the domestic partnership legislation 3 years ago.
 
Even though a referendum clause amendment was rejected, opponents have already promised to file a challenge, which can't be done until after it is passed by the full Legislature and signed into law by Gregoire. Opponents then must turn in 120,577 signatures by June 6.

If opponents aren't able to collect enough signatures, gay and lesbian couples would be able to be wed starting in June. Otherwise, they would have to wait until the results of a November election.
Click to expand...


http://news.yahoo.com/wa-senate-approves-bill-legalize-gay-marriage-040807187.html



2012 sounds like it may be a good year for us.



What do you think the chances are of Washington, Maine, New Jersey and Maryland all passing laws this year?

That would make ten states, D.C. and two Indian nations with equal marriage. Probably a long shot though.
 
Thynight said:
http://news.yahoo.com/wa-senate-approves-bill-legalize-gay-marriage-040807187.html



2012 sounds like it may be a good year for us.



What do you think the chances are of Washington, Maine, New Jersey and Maryland all passing laws this year?

That would make ten states, D.C. and two Indian nations with equal marriage. Probably a long shot though.
Click to expand...

-Washington: A referendum will likely be close, but I think in the end gay marriage will be upheld. In 2009 voters uphelp "everything but marriage" domestic partnerships with 53.15% of the vote. Factor in that it was an off election year, and also that three years has passed (which is a long time on an issue like gay marriage).

-Maine: Pretty much a statistical certainty for our side. In 2009 gay marriage was overturned with 52.9% of the vote. Like Washington, factor in that it was an off election year and the three year time difference.

-New Jersey: This will be interesting. Christie has said he will veto the bill, but he has dug his hole pretty deep regarding his comments on voting on civil rights. It may be wise for him to just let it become law without his signature. Another option too is to veto it, but implicity encourage the legislature to override it (similar to what the governor of Vermont did back in 2009). If he is serious about a Presidential run in 2016, he needs to realize that in 4 years national support for gay marriage will likely be past the 55% mark.

-Maryland: I have no doubt that the legislature will pass the gay marriage bill, however I think it will be narrowly rejected in a referendum. The polls don't look very favorable to our side.

Another factor too which may benefit our side is that 2009 was a bit of a backlash against Democrats, while 2012 will be a bit of a backlash against Republicans.

Also, I think Minnesota has a good chance at defeating our anti-marriage amendment. The fact that leaving the question blank on the ballot will count as a No vote may be enough to push our side over the edge to victory.
 
"Sure, but Scream is a lot more optimistic than I am this time. Maybe it's a product of my hopes being dashed too many times, but I still firmly believe we are very close to winning a referendum at some point soon."

Yah, like in 9 months lol.

But seriously, I just look at it from a statistical standpoint. Support for gay marriage is growing at a rate of about 1%/year. Factor in too the off year election vs. Presidential election year, which sways results to the right by anywhere from 1 to 2 points.

Washington approved the domestic partnership legislation with 53.15% of the vote. Factor in the off year vs. on year election difference, and the results probably would've been close to 55% approve. Add to that the 3 year difference and you now have our side winning by 57%-58% of the vote.

Maine overturned gay marriage with 52.9% of the vote. Factor in the off year vs. on year election difference, and the results probably would've been close to only 51% reject. Add to that the 3 year difference and gay marriage would be approved by at least 51%.
 
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