Relationship of Age and Other Factors to Voting Patterns [SPLIT]

[MrWright]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

http://www.tcunation.com/profiles/b...:163499&page=1#comment-2476373_Comment_163753

Obviously there is demographically weaker support for gay marriage as the age rises. However, your blanket statements perceive data like this as only important if it's over 50%. While the numbers decline with age, there are still MILLIONS of older people out there who DO support gay marriage just as there are MILLIONS of younger people out there who don't. On any given street corner, the old guy who reads the newspaper does indeed have a higher likelihood of not supporting gay marriage and yet you can't be sure - far from as there's roughly a 1 in 3 chance he fully supports it.

Gay marriage is a new issue. Maybe it's how I perceive the world but in my minimal opinion every generation is wholly bigoted and remarkably egalitarian. Perhaps a good number of the older population doesn't support gay marriage. Whatever. These people brought us women's rights and civil rights and plenty of other remarkable movements - memorable moments - that are some of the cornerstones of our perception of how humans should interact and while they might not see the validity of the gay movement I am sure that there are many of us who fail to see the bigotry in our own actions.

 

[andysayshi]

Some more specific statistics are revealing:

http://www.calitics.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7787

In this survey, 45% of 18-29 year olds voted FOR Prop 8 - almost half.

Overwhelmingly, the indicators for supporting Prop 8 are political ideology and religiosity. Indicators based purely on age are far less defined, and as mentioned above, also demonstrate that younger people are far less likely to even bother voting.

Also note this table comparing voting trends based on age:

It seems that the only significant change in opinion on gay marriage equality since 2000 is in 40-60 year olds. Should we surmise from this that 40-60 year olds are more open to education and change than other generations?

 

[andysayshi]

^ Some other interesting things to note. The Gallup poll earlier in this thread has virtually identical sample size and error margin to the DBR Poll above. But the age-based stat results are quite different: the variation between 18-64 year olds is a mere 2 percent in the DBR poll, less than the error margin! Based on real numbers who voted, this means that many more 45-64 year olds voted against proposition 8 than 18-29 year olds.
If we were to average the statistics of both polls this would still be true, simply because so many more 45-64 year olds voted.

But what really astounds me is that half (49%) of people who claim to have friends or family who are gay, STILL voted yes on Prop 8.

 

[andysayshi]

*yawn* so desperate to avoid the bottom line.

No, but apparently you are. I'll spell it out for you with simple math.

I don't know how many Californians voted, but let's hypothesize 1,000,000 voters. Based on the statistics in the DBR poll, this is how many of those million people voted NO on proposition 8:

18-29 ... 93500
30-44 ... 109200
45-64 ... 201400
65+ ...... 75900

More than double the 45-64 year olds voted No on Prop 8 compared to 18-29 year olds.

The Gallop poll posted by Lostlover offers far less information, but if I extrapolate the voting percentiles from the DBR poll into the Gallup stats, they (roughly) end up like this with 1 million voters:

18-29 ... 100300
30-49 ... 84000
50-64 ... 140600
65+ ......73600

Percentages demonstrate trends, but actual votes are what change laws. So, regardless of which poll you prefer, in real votes in polling booths, more people around 45-64 voted to support gay marriage than any other age bracket.

That's the bottom line.

 

[Lostlover]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

Doesn't mean they stopped thinking it.

They can think all they want. They knew it didn't get to me. And I called their bluffs too because as McCain made sexist comments about his wife entering wet t-shirt contests in South Dakota, they were MIA.

The whole "you're a sexist" thing was all they had on anyone who disliked Hillary for being a witch with a "B" in the primaries.

I just wasn't playing their games.

 

[Lostlover]

Re: Moderator Notice

Please be reminded that baiting, posting demeaning characterizations of other members, expanding a disagreement from one thread to another, or repeating the same question(s) to the same member(s) as a means to harass or intimidate are contrary to proper interaction in this forum.

This was sooo over until one poster that had it out for me decided to stir shit up. And when he got his butt handed to him, he called it harassment.

How can you start an argument with someone and when he responds you call it harassment?

I told JockBoy I dropped it two weeks ago. And I did until a poster came in with hurt feelings. He knew he was mad at something he just had to make up his mind what.

 

[Lostlover]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

Obviously there is demographically weaker support for gay marriage as the age rises. However, your blanket statements perceive data like this as only important if it's over 50%. While the numbers decline with age, there are still MILLIONS of older people out there who DO support gay marriage just as there are MILLIONS of younger people out there who don't. On any given street corner, the old guy who reads the newspaper does indeed have a higher likelihood of not supporting gay marriage and yet you can't be sure - far from as there's roughly a 1 in 3 chance he fully supports it.

Gay marriage is a new issue. Maybe it's how I perceive the world but in my minimal opinion every generation is wholly bigoted and remarkably egalitarian. Perhaps a good number of the older population doesn't support gay marriage. Whatever. These people brought us women's rights and civil rights and plenty of other remarkable movements - memorable moments - that are some of the cornerstones of our perception of how humans should interact and while they might not see the validity of the gay movement I am sure that there are many of us who fail to see the bigotry in our own actions.

You're the first one to say the obvious!

Seriously, what I expected by stating the obvious was for some older posters to say something about how bad things used to be or express their disappointment with how things were.

But noooo! What you get is a lot of "Don't say it." "You're a bigot" and all kinds of vile and bile.

Maybe it's shame? Maybe not.

PS: How could I make blanket statements when I cite data that clearly shows not all of one group voted one way or another?

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

We think better than old people do, because we are more openminded. There that's an accomplishment to applaud.

Throughout the history of mankind it's always been true, it's human nature, that generally younger minds are more open than older minds. But it's consistent with the traits of your generation that you'd think of that as an accomplishment to applaud.

Old people are the ones holding up gay rights. Old people are the one's obstipating gay marriage.

That's a great use of the word obstipating.

But unless I've missed a set of statistics you can link me to, your assertion is off because it's also African Americans and certain religious groups like Mormons and Catholics, and I've never seen statistics break that down to indicate, for instance, it's older blacks but not younger.

Vietnam was a waste of money and human life, so is Iraq. My generation won't make that mistake.

I sure hope you're right.

I wouldn't fight that war if I were threatened with death.

You don't know that. All that statement really shows is you're comfortable coming to absolute conclusions, and making extreme assertions about consequences you're willing to face, without having sufficient information.

However I do work as hard as the next bloke. There is an illusion among old people that young folks don't have any work ethic.

I don't know how hard you work but I agree with your assertion and in general I'm not so sure it's an illusion. Do you have any kind of objective evidence it's an illusion?

Just get more cynical as the hair gets grayer.

"No matter how cynical you become it's never enough to keep up." -- Jane Wagner for Lily Tomlin

 

[NickCole]

Old folks have the motivation to get up and go to the polls... but it's in order to take our rights away. Is that what you're saying?

People my age belong to a culture of cool. While we don't give a damn if two guys want to get married, we don't give a damn about voting either by and large. It's unfortunate, but at least we aren't running to the polls in droves to take people's rights away.

Motivation to vote is pointless if you are doing it to cause harm.

Wow.

Sounds like apathy is an accomplishment to applaud.

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

Are we or are we not in a duel over who's generation is superior, I forget!

Nope.

Not from me anyway.

There are generational differences, and that seems to be the topic of this thread. I've not made the argument that Boomers are superior to Gen Y or than any other generation is superior to another.

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

We make our own culture what it is, separate from older adults. Nobody taught 20 year olds to be so pro-gay. If you all had, there wouldn't be such a disparity in opinions about gay rights.

It's true young people make their own culture but it's also probably true that 20 somethings being more pro-gay is, in part, a result of being taught that. Otherwise there would be big splits between parents and children about homosexuality, and that happened back with my generation and our parents. I'm pretty sure that, for all the mistakes Boomers made with parenting, for the most part they tended to teach their children to be tolerant and accepting of things like race and sexual orientation.

But you may be missing something about generational differences and age voting factors. There is a generation between the 65 and older who're voting against gay marriage and the 20 somethings who're tolerant of it. Boomers tend to be more tolerant or supportive of same sex marriage AND they vote.

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

I have never EVER called anyone a liar in any thread over the entire internet. I do not feel restrained in anyway now to call you one. You have repeatedly trashed and talked shit about people under 30, trying to deny it just makes you look like a horses ass. At least my bias against people over 60 people is no secret. So don't try to pretend like your bias is so non-existent.

I didn't say I don't have a bias, I said I'm not in a duel over who's generation is superior.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

It's true young people make their own culture but it's also probably true that 20 somethings being more pro-gay is, in part, a result of being taught that. Otherwise there would be big splits between parents and children about homosexuality, and that happened back with my generation and our parents. I'm pretty sure that, for all the mistakes Boomers made with parenting, for the most part they tended to teach their children to be tolerant and accepting of things like race and sexual orientation.

My parents are boomers and they are huge homophobes.

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

My parents are boomers and they are huge homophobes.

I'm sorry, I know hard that can be.

Statistically, however, including the polls cited in this thread, Boomers remain more supportive of gay marriage than our parent's generation. And in fact, in the DBR survey above, 47% of the Boomer age range voted yes on Prop 8 while a larger 48% of the age range younger than Boomers voted yes. Strange.

 

[andysayshi]

Vietnam was a waste of money and human life, so is Iraq. My generation won't make that mistake.

The naivety of that statement is kind of charming, but indicative of someone who doesn't know their history, or human nature. I suspect a lot of Vietnam war protesters said the same thing. Their generation also brought us George W Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

Humans wage war. Always have. And they are often started with a catalyst of extreme economic turmoil. Whatever you may think your generation believes, hunger, fear or greed may convince them otherwise.

Old folks have the motivation to get up and go to the polls... but it's in order to take our rights away. Is that what you're saying?


People my age belong to a culture of cool. While we don't give a damn if two guys want to get married, we don't give a damn about voting either by and large. It's unfortunate, but at least we aren't running to the polls in droves to take people's rights away.


Motivation to vote is pointless if you are doing it to cause harm.

Being part of a democracy requires work. You have to stand up and demand what you want, or you won't get it. Your statement is indicative of the modern problem: you blame old people for demanding what they want, but excuse youth for NOT demanding it.

But that's what democracy is. You have to stand up and shout. And the shouting is typically done by the young, who have the time and the energy to yell.

So when people blame the older generation for bigotry, my argument is: Where were you? Why weren't you shouting back? Why aren't you standing up for civil rights, just like generations before you did for women and for blacks? Because of the "culture of cool"? Bullshit - apathy is costing real people their rights, and its time people got off their asses to fix it. Who do you think the baby boomers were shouting at to demand rights for gays and blacks? It was "the older generation"!

Blame the old dudes all you want, but the statistics above speak for themselves: more old people voted FOR gay rights than young people did. If young people had bothered to get off their asses and vote, Prop 8 would have failed.

That's why this argument bugs me. Rather than blaming old people, youth could be using their energy to change the problem. Generations before us have fought for civil rights, for gay rights, for women's rights. Blaming someone else is just bitching. Going to the polling booth is productive.

And just to reiterate: the statistics clearly demonstrate that political ideology and religiosity are the overwhelming factors determining votes for gay rights. Demonizing people because of their age group is misguided at best, and destructive at its worst. It's very possible that such demonization will lose us votes, not gain them.

 

[andysayshi]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

I'm pointing out to you that the world is a bit more complicated. Fact is, waiting for generations of people to die to affect change is nihilistic and utterly passive.

I struggle with this topic because I look at people and I do not see statistical amalgams -- I see human beings, I see individuals. It has been my experience that changing minds and attitudes is a retail affair, not wholesale (Billy Clinton used to say, "One touch, one vote," and he knew a little something about winning elections).

We cannot choose, really, the society or times we live in -- that's not part of the deal. We live in the here and now. And we don't live life in the abstractions of statistical data sheets, we live it person by person, experience by experience. The most liberal person I know is 94; the most conservative is my little bitch neice, who is 19 (and who is the ONLY fucking Republican in my family -- she recently came out as such).

If you want to wage jihad against people who are older than you based on statistics, honey, knock yourself out. For myself, each encounter with every individual is an opportunity to change them, and to be changed by them. That is what interaction does, that is how cities, culture and society work. That is why I hope to live to 94: I don't want to be "the same person" I am today, and I invite and welcome every opportunity to be a new person every single day.

Bloody great post!

 

[NickCole]

^ That's nice, Alfie, but it misses the point of the relationship of age and other factors to voting patterns.

Our attitudes and other elements of our identity are formed in part by our experience. And while, obviously, we each have lots of individual experiences that feed into that, they're usually within the context of our time. Further, we generally share many common experiences with others of our generation.

While we're going about our daily lives, WWII is going on or gays are coming out of the closet for the first time in our nation's history or we're enjoying the longest sustained period of prosperity in our history; those commonly experienced cultural/world events have an impact on our viewpoint. Obviously every single person of a generation is not the same, but there are patterns that are pretty easy to identify.

 

[Lostlover]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

What a load of bullshit that is.

People had much more than that as Obama stole the caucuses,and his supporters cried racism,and you were leading the band,reminding us to vote ''bro's before ho's.''

Give me a cookie.

I didn't want to vote for Obama,and I wish I didn't. He's a lying sack of shit,and he threw the gay voters under the bus.He's not alone though, the Democratic Party has done it for years and they'll never get another vote,or another dime from me.You can still swoon over him, and I'm sure you will,but I'm about over him and his bullshit.

Anybody catch his remarks in California the other day? While commenting on a gay protestors sign that read ''keep your promises''he joked ''what promises?'' There's your Obama.

But back on topic, you can wag your finger all you want at ''the old people'' but as Kuli pointed out, they voted!

Now, young people may think gay marriage is a nifty idea, but it don't mean shit if they don't get off they're asses and head to the polls when it's being put to a vote.

Just like the 'Obama Girl', a lot of young voters were too busy to make it to the polls.

How did Obama steal the caucuses? By recognizing that they exist?

We cried racism when Hillary said things about how Obama couldn't get the white vote (when really he couldn't get the Appalachian vote). We cried all sorts of things that Hillary played.

Seriously, folks this is how the election process has been for years. And because Obama realizes the key is to the caucuses he's being labeled as a thief.

Lastly, think about what you just said. If everything you just said is true, you're praising one bigoted voting block because they got out and vote and you're demonizing the block the supported gay equality because they didn't come out in large "enough" numbers?

Now the younger folks have to vote enough to offset the voting patterns of other demographics? Is that what you're really saying?

Get outta here with that crap.

 

[Lostlover]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

Are we or are we not in a duel over who's generation is superior, I forget!

Dude, they ain't saying shit. Their feelings are hurt. They've said nothing constructive and actually true.

They're now blaming the younger voters for not offsetting their demographic's voting patterns?

They'll say anything.

 

[NickCole]

Re: Obama Nominates Judge Sonia Sotomayor For S.C.O.T.U.S.

(when really he couldn't get the Appalachian vote).

Well the revengeful and unprincipled Obama, in another move that continues bad Bush policy, is getting back at them bad old Appalachians.

At least thirty people were arrested in West Virginia Saturday as protesters marked a new phase of Operation Appalachian Spring, a campaign to end mountaintop removal mining. The protests came just a week after the Obama administration gave the green light for forty-two more mountaintop removal permits in a major victory for the coal industry.

http://i4.democracynow.org/2009/5/29/coal

At that link is an interview with Amy Goodman and Jeff Biggers, explaining why blowing mountaintops off is not only an environmental disaster but a human rights issue as well.

Again no change.

This is the coal lobby, and I predicted Obama's allegiance to the coal lobby when I noticed Obama repeating their "Clean Coal" lie.