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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

RF continues to lose military leadership...of course the senior officers are nowhere near the front....so the lower ranks continue to bear the brunt.

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The continuing bad weather has slowed the actions of UA and RF on the ground somewhat but there were missile attacks against RF in the south of Kherson, in Tokmak (a key base) and in Donetsk.

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Today there are reports that the storm in the Black Sea heavily damaged the defenses in Sevastapol and yesterday UA struck an RF base that was using a military hospital in Tokmak.

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So...to catch up...over the last few days....UA keeps eliminating mobiks and officers, including a Major General, but is a hard slog.

Apparently 60 F16's are now promised to Ukraine...although they aren't in use yet and Ukraine indicates that up to 200 would be required to match RF capabilities in the sky.

As I've noted before, the inaction by the west allowed rrrZZia to build so many defensive lines over a twelve month period as to make the counter-offensive almost impossible.


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RF keeps gaining small amounts of ground in several areas while Ukraine is basically now having to yield ground because of the slowness and cutbacks of resources from the west. I think we are approaching the frozen conflict stage.

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Ukraine’s SBU has blown up a freight train in a rail tunnel deep inside Russia.

According to Kyiv Post, a freight train with military goods from China was struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal Amur Mainline in Buryatia, north of Mongolia.

The key is to not let the materiel reach the front.

But just a reminder that China only sees a win-win out of this war.
 
Another train derailment in Buryatia...41 cars loaded with fuel and metals.

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UA has hit the refinery in Luhansk again today...as well as unknown targets in Rostov. Cutting off the fuel supply will be important, but rrrZZZia seems to have sufficient fuel dedicated to the war now and will only strike back with more precision guided bombing in Kherson.

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As usual, Sunday is the slower day at the front. Rf fires a whole bunch of drone and a missile into Ukraine...18 out of 23 Shaheds were destroyed and the missile too.
But this constant barrage will be unsustainable. The Luhansk refinery hit was by drone as well, but Ukraine needs to start targeting the whole western area of rrrzzzia with drones in numbers that will overwhelm RF defenses as well. Pull the resources away from the south and east.

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RF still frantically trying to capture the remainder of Donetsk. At any cost.


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Yesterday, UA shot down 41 out of 47 Shaheds plus some other drones. And one SU-24 plane. And deleted a lot of mobiks from the field.

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The Ukrainian SSB managed to liquidate two traitors yesterday...one in Mockba and one in Luhansk while UA forces liquidated hundreds more mobiks.

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Two units of a power plant were taken out today because of rrZn shelling. Hopefully Ukraine makes good on the promise to strike rrrzzzn domestic power plants and grid in return.
 
Five out of 19 missiles got through the air defense systems...apparently RF is now looking to target infrastructure with their stockpile of missiles now that Christmas is coming.

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And yesterday...just more of the same...some UA spokesperson is promising that Ukraine has plans to re-take Crimea in the new year...but I have to say that hundreds of RF missiles and the inability so far to permanently remove the Kerch bridge and cut the route along the Azov coast makes this unlikely unless there is some huge game changer.

If UA could take the entirety of western Kherson, I think there is more of a chance...but without a wide swath and defensible boundary like the Dnipro...this also looks increasingly unlikely. The destruction of the dam at Nova Khakova has left the canal just a dry ditch now...although maps do not indicate that the RF has extensive defensive earthworks along the route. Stategically, I think that Ukraine focused too much on breaking unbreakable lines in the centre, thinking that they could take Melitipol and reach the natural water inlet to the south.

Instead, had they thrown everything at Kherson, they most certainly could have taken and kept the western region south of the Dnipro. Instead, they can only periodically bomb Skadovsk along the southern coast every time that RF re-builds base strength there.

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nice hit in Donetsk...obviously either fuel or weapons or both.

 
Gee what a surprise.

Russian military bloggers report that the North Korean ammunition is very unevenly produced.

Even coming from the same production lot, it is obvious that deviations in the charge compositions and powder can be seen. It is very poor quality.

Targeting and hitting becomes a game of luck.

This comes after reports of production deviations of the shells in terms of manufacturing tolerances which were too much outside acceptable parameters and causing barrels of Russian artillery to explode.
 
And good news today.

The Russian Karakurt Class corvette “Askold”, which has been hit on November 4 by several missiles in a shipyard in Russian-occupied Crimea, cannot be repaired according to the TG channel 'Crimean Wind.'

If the west was smart they would give UA everything needed to wipe out the Black Sea Fleet for good.


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Russia is apparently 'recruiting' foreign workers detained in a recent sweep on the Finnish border.

There is evidence of cases where they have been sent to a military camp on the border with Ukraine, days after they were picked up for breaching immigration laws.

So the supply of ethnic mobiks is drying up?

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On December 11, Hungarian carriers will start a protest at the border near Zahon-Chop, similar to the demonstrations of Polish and Slovak truckers .This was reported by the association of Hungarian road transport contractors "MKFE".

Anyone who thinks this has anything to do with truckers is stupid beyond belief.

It is just another orchestrated attempt by the Kremlin to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics and trade. With the collusion of bought and paid for state representatives with incredibly powerful agendas of their own. In Poland, Donald Tusk has made it clear he will solve the problem as far as Poland...but the other two hostile states, Slovakia and Hungary are now taking up the slack.
 
The weather is really starting to slow the pace.


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