Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[rareboy]

In the meantime...a good thing happened.

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/12/nx-s1-5539034/prince-harry-visit-ukraine-wounded-troops?utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=bsky.app&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr

 

[Kulindahr]

So the totally feckless and useless UN will hold a meeting to allow Poland to swear at the Kremlin and then to hear the lies spewed out by the rrrxzzianz..either claming that the drones were Ukrainian or that it was all just an 'oopsie'.

And the Security Council members will do nothing.

UN to hold emergency meeting on Russia’s drone incursion in Poland - National | Globalnews.ca

The United Nations Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting at the request of the Polish Foreign Ministry after Russia violated its airspace.

globalnews.ca

Definitely time for Ukraine to challenge Russia for that SC seat. Russia is not even a legal UN member, and it is so non-compliant with the UN that it is not a legitimate successor state to the USSR -- but Ukraine is.

 

[rareboy]

But in the background...some really disturbing possibilities.

 

[Kulindahr]

^
This makes me wonder about NATO 'mechanics': if Poland decided to act immediately by declaring a no-fly zone across half of Ukraine, would that preclude later invoking Article 5?

 

[rareboy]

Definitely time for Ukraine to challenge Russia for that SC seat. Russia is not even a legal UN member, and it is so non-compliant with the UN that it is not a legitimate successor state to the USSR -- but Ukraine is.

Dream on. The permanent members of the SC are permanently entrenched.

And the UN accepted that the RRRZZZian Federation was the legitimate successor to the USSR...in part, I am sure, as a consolation prize of sorts with the break-up of the Soviet Union.

 

[rareboy]

^
This makes me wonder about NATO 'mechanics': if Poland decided to act immediately by declaring a no-fly zone across half of Ukraine, would that preclude later invoking Article 5?

Poland has no authority to unilaterally declare a no-fly zone over any other country.

Particularly within the framework of NATO.

 

[rareboy]

And once again Romania. And Poland on alert again today.

 

[rareboy]

Poland has no authority to unilaterally declare a no-fly zone over any other country.

Particularly within the framework of NATO.

Moe on this as Poland floats the idea that a no-fly zone should be imposed over Ukraine.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/poland-calls-for-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine/

 

[rareboy]

With around 25% of oil refining capacity destroyed by Ukraine, Russia will have to reduce crude oil production by closing oil wells because there is no place to store excess oil.

With their attacks Ukraine has forced Russia to reduce the oil production funding the war.

Of course rrrxxsxia still can ship crude, but their shadow fleet of tankers is increasingly under threat as well.

 

[rareboy]

The EU appears to be finally ready to move on the shadow fleet with 16 tankers flagged for impoundment.

There are huge lineups at the fuel stations and shortages of gas for civilians now.

Going into the winter, the Sumy assault failed and rrrZZZia has gained little headway along the eastern and southern front.

On the other hand, to me, it is inexplicable why Ukraine has not been able to reclaim Kherson and clear the peninsula.

As of today, the tally:

The problem now is that with IRan and China's help and help from India, rrZZia keeps re-arming and updating and seems to still have an inexhaustible supply of meatbags to throw at the front in order to gain relatively little new ground with mineral resources beneath.

 

[NotHardUp1]

But in the background...some really disturbing possibilities.

Small aircraft over an ammunition depot in Germany. Airports temporarily closed due to drones "used militarily."

Trouble brewing.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/drone-munich-airport-nato-russia-b2839435.html

 

[rareboy]

No question but that the Kremlin is testing NATO countries defenses.

 

[unloadonme]

No question but that the Kremlin is testing NATO countries defenses.

Agreed, but it's hard to imagine that Russia seriously thinks it could take on NATO when it has done so badly against little old Ukraine after almost four years of trying.

 

[rareboy]

The next gen of drones will be armed with dirty bombs.

 

[unloadonme]

The next gen of drones will be armed with dirty bombs.

I'd be very surprised by that. If used in Ukraine, Putin would risk a loss of support from China and India and increased military support from the west. If he used them in a NATO country, he'd be starting a war he could never win.

 

[rareboy]

If rrrZZZia starts a war with NATO, there is no intention of winning. It would be an existential conflict.

But the whole last 80 years has been about that hasn't it. Mutually Assured Destruction.

And now the rogue states, including the US are probably gaming out the levels of response to the use of poison gas or 'light' dirty bombs.

 

[Norri]

At this stage of this game I find the prospect of Russia and NATO fighting amusing. I think a good analogy would be a fight between two seventh grade boys neither of whom wish to fight but can’t figure a way out without looking chicken.

And I think unloadonme has it exactly right should Putin start a war with NATO the Chinese would be exiting stage left.

 

[NotHardUp1]

At this stage of this game I find the prospect of Russia and NATO fighting amusing. I think a good analogy would be a fight between two seventh grade boys neither of whom wish to fight but can’t figure a way out without looking chicken.

And I think unloadonme has it exactly right should Putin start a war with NATO the Chinese would be exiting stage left.

Immediately, even!

 

[NotHardUp1]

Agreed, but it's hard to imagine that Russia seriously thinks it could take on NATO when it has done so badly against little old Ukraine after almost four years of trying.

I suspect it is reconnaissance to use IF a plane gets shot down. The response would be to hit a NATO target to show a limited conventional response. Or, if a NATO country assists Ukraine more directly. an attack would happen.

 

[unloadonme]

If rrrZZZia starts a war with NATO, there is no intention of winning. It would be an existential conflict.

But the whole last 80 years has been about that hasn't it. Mutually Assured Destruction.

Agreed. Again! If Russia starts a conventional war with NATO, its performance in Ukraine shows that it will lose. If it starts a nuclear war, as you say, everyone will lose. There's no way Russia can win.