- The 2020 census reapportionment of NY House seats caused havoc. NY lost a House seat because they were 89 residents short of qualifying under the screwy census apportionment that results in 435 seats for the House.
God, don't remind me ...
- In the melee, 30 year incumbent Carolyn Maloney (NY-12) lost in the game of musical chairs that was the Democratic primary; her opponent was Jerry Nadler, another 30 year House veteran.
Before the redistricting, I was in Carolyn Maloney's district. (I am now in AOC's.) She did good work, but I was ready to see her go; I voted against her in the previous two primaries.
- NY Mayor Eric Adams was giving interviews talking about how crime in NYC was at a 30 year high and he was going to get tough on crime. Those interviews damaged the entire Democratic ticket from Gov Hochul down to the local NYC races.
Grrr ...
And no, crime in NYC is not at the levels it reached in the early 1990s.
Christ, why couldn't just a few more people have voted for Kathryn Garcia?
New York has a declining population. Since 2000, they have lost 3 seats in the delegation because of the population loss.
Just to be clear for readers (I know you know this), New York
state has a declining population. (We seem to be exporting Republicans to Florida.)
I remember that roughly 2017-2019, a number of people (Derek Thompson at
The Atlantic leaps to mind) were writing articles about how New York
City was losing lots of population. Evidently the Census Bureau agreed, based on USPS change of address forms and one-way moving van rentals and such. I was always skeptical. Lo and behold, the city's population went from 8.19 million in 2010 to 8.77 million in 2020. (Told ya so, Derek!)
Santos' Democratic opponent Robert Zimmerman looked good on paper (likeable, gay, Jewish), too. But Zimmerman is 68 years old and the Democrats in the NYC are looking for young, fresh faces like Ocasio-Cortez (age 33), Torres (age 34), Jones (age 35), Goldman (age 46) which even makes Jeffries (age 52) look like an old man.
True, but those are mostly NYC candidates. I'm inclined to doubt that the North Shore of Long Island (NY-03) cares as much about youth.
I hear that Zimmerman is running around the district, more-or-less campaigning again, on the assumption that there will be a special election soon. When there is, I think it'd be a safer bet (sorry, Robert Zimmerman!) for Tom Suozzi, Santos's predecessor, to run again. Name recognition matters, and I gather the district was pretty content with him. (He's 60, by the way.)