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Survivor Samoa

I think the Jury will be very bitter to vote for Russell

True but a lot of them are smart so Russell should play to their intelligence (lay it all out on how Russell got rid of them, who he used, etc). If he's successful, I think he gets every jury vote.
 
Just to be clear, I was not saying Russell doesn't deserve to win. I'm just saying everyone else is an idiot (just as he has been saying since the beginning). It just made zero sense why everyone was afraid to make a move against Russell at this point. It's like they are afraid of money.:?
 
I hope it's a clean sweep in Russell's favor because he's the only one playing the game. Monica was smart to get under his skin but she should've been that savvy from the moment they merged. They would be foolish to give Mick or Nat a single vote. Both are useless. Jaison's a little better but not by much. Shambo's clueless and has only lasted because she's not a threat and is so gullible.

I disagree. He's not the only one playing the game, he's just the only one who's going over the top about it. He's being way overrated. Besides, he's treating people like crap and breaking deals here and there and I'm sure Karma will get to him in the end if he goes there. He was also lucky enough to find the idols that the production didn't bother to hide well.

Russell would be nothing without Natalie, Mick and Jaison so they're not useless imo.

Dave said it best for me:


Having seen the show on TV now, would you change your vote?

Dave Ball: No. I told myself when I got voted off that I was absolutely going to vote for the person who played the best game. I feel like I did that, but you have to understand there are several different types of game going on within "Survivor." There are games within challenges, there are strategic games at camp, and there are social games going on. There are several different levels of game play.


What do you think of Russell? Is he playing a strong game?
Depends on how you define the game. If you think it's a game of challenges, then no because he didn't win any. He went on one reward that he was on with me and Brett and Laura, but other than that I don't think he's won one. If you think it's a social game, he's alienating a lot of people. Jeff Probst has said before that it's a social game, and he's ticked off a lot of people. If it's a social game, he's not playing a very good game.

So are there any definitions of the game where you would say he's playing a strong game?
When it comes to finding the Hidden Immunity Idol and playing 'em, he's playing a pretty good game at that. Honestly, when it comes to playing 'em he's still only one for two. But he played one at the right time and shifted the balance of power, so...
 
Everyone is scared to make a move against Russell, because of the idol. If they were smart they would have all team up against Russell and split their votes. Half vote for Russell and the other half vote for Shambo, so if Russell uses the idol Shambo will get the boot, and that will leave Russell without an idol for the next tribal council (unless the producers decide to plant another idol for him).

But they aren't smart and they didn't do that. The only reason Russell seems like such a good player is because he is playing with dumbasses.
 
If Russell makes it to the end he is getting every single jury vote. Mark my words.

I'd like to think a majority of jury members will find his smarm and self-publicity a turn off and vote against him, but perception is everything on this show and these people aren't that bright. On Survivor, being perceived as a mastermind or a winner is enough for people to vote for you and sadly, talking about yourself as being a mastermind or a winner can often create that perception. If Todd could win China without actually ever doing anything, then certainly Russell can win Samoa by doing at least marginally more than Todd. Both of them were/are always selling their own "brilliance", and the idiots around them buy it. And of course Probst and the producers are just there to drive up the prices.

I can't say Russell has done nothing, but he's done less than HE thinks he's done, and his personality is so obnoxious, that I'm always rooting against him. I loved it when Monica correctly pointed out that the idols are 90% of the reason he's still there. And you notice how the little troll got livid after that? Russell is pathetic; his whole purpose in life is to win this game, it's the biggest thing in the world for him and that desperate need to be validated by an ultimately meaningless gameshow, and to be perceived as "great" at this one shitty thing is just beyond sad.

But he'll get his coronation. The producers will see to that.
 
I know I haven't posted since mid season but I need to say how majorly disappointed I am in everyone. The SECOND Russel took out that idol they should've known to vote for him. Because I knew he wouldn't play it. It was clearly an itimidation practice and worse comes to worse Monica would still go home. These people are all as bad as Shambo.

In related news Monica should've had her and Brett vote for Shambo, hope that the Foa's turned on Russel Russel nullified their votes leaving a 2 vs 2 Mon vs Sham tie.

I miss Cirie.
 
The finals are going to be a total trainwreck. Monica correctly pointed out that Russell wants to be in the finals with Shambo and Natalie, and it's obvious why. In that situation, Russell has a near-guaranteed win because A) the jury is mostly comprised of Galu members who would rather vote for Hitler over Shambozo and B) Natalie is the textbook UTR female follower whose moves are easily attributed to the alpha male with whom she's aligned.

However, it's not a sure thing because I could also see this particular jury of strategic idiots being bitter/emotional and not rewarding Russell for playing the best game (as opposed to everybody else's non-games) because he screwed a lot of them and he makes a lot of money. Either way, I'm thinking that Shambitch makes it to the finals and gets zero votes like Sugar did. (Hopefully, America won't award her the $100k favorite prize either.)

If Brett makes it to FTC, he wins in a blowout. But he obviously won't because the editors actually would have shown the guy throughout the season if he were the winner. Mick and Jaison are more traditional winners according to edgic, whereas Russell and Shambo would be distractions, but unless a counter alliance is formed to get Russell out in the next episode (and they showed us that in the preview, so it's not happening), I can't see how Russell doesn't win. This would have to be the most bitter jury ever to give Natalie the victory in a Russ/Sham/Nat final.
 
If Brett makes it to FTC, he wins in a blowout. But he obviously won't because the editors actually would have shown the guy throughout the season if he were the winner.
You must be somewhat new to Survivor (relatively speaking with 19 seasons), because more often than not, the winner has had less airtime than others. The person with the most airtime never wins.
 
^^ The winner is never completely invisible though, and Brett has been the most invisible player ever, he has had like 8 confessionals so far. Winners are usually hidden but not completely invisible, Brett doesn't follow past winners edits, but no one this season really does. I agree Mick and Jaison are the closest to the traditional winner edit. Mick even had a comment about having the million dollars and I remember JT having a similar comment last season.
 
There's got to be another endurance immunity challenge coming up soon. One like where they stand for hours in an uncomfortable position. I would hope that is where Russell loses. He is strong, but his stocky build is not favorable for a long endurance challenge. The big question is, would the winner of that challenge be idiot enough to choose him to be in the final 3 or 2 with them?
 
You must be somewhat new to Survivor (relatively speaking with 19 seasons), because more often than not, the winner has had less airtime than others. The person with the most airtime never wins.

As TaggedGalaxy noted, while it's true that the person with the most airtime (i.e. Russell and Shambo now) usually distracts the audience from the real winner, winners have NEVER been non-entities on Brett's level.

Hatch, Brian and Todd dominated their seasons' airtime but still won. Palau was a weird season but Tom still got most of the screentime from his tribe, even though the first 60% of the season was mostly about how much Ulong sucked, and Amber was one-half of the duo that got the most airtime in All-Stars.

Many of the other winners were notably featured throughout the season but had the distraction characters present: Sandra and Rupert/Jon, Aras and Terry, Ethan and Lex, etc.

Vecepia, Danni and Bob have been the only truly low-key winners. However, they still got featured much more than Brett, who has gotten seven confessionals in like twelve episodes, and three of those seven happened during the recap episode that nobody cares about.

The editors always try to explain how their winner gets to the finals and wins, which is why Gabon's finale turned into Sugar sabotaging everybody to hand Bob the win, but many, many episodes of Samoa have acted like Brett isn't even on the show.

And while it's true that edgic has been a disaster for Samoa, it's infinitely more likely that we'd get a Russell... or Shambo... or Mick, Jaison or Natalie win than an Invisibrett win. Mainly because they've actually showed them.
 
winners have NEVER been non-entities on Brett's level.

Offhand, I can think of Tina from Outback. She definitely was as invisible as Brett. Although the real reason she won is because airbrain Colby chose her to be in the final two with him, virtually personally handing the prize to her.
 
I'd post the Survivor Sucks winner edgic charts, but posting images never seems to work when I do it. Here's the thread which has the charts in the third post, though.

Looking at the winner charts, Tina's season had fourteen episodes. She was rated 1 or 2 out of 5 in visibility in only five episodes, and the first episode is an anomaly because Mark Burnett admitted that Tina was intentionally not featured in the premiere of Outback because Richard was featured so heavily in Borneo.

Tina's edit was pretty regular for a winner, as the editors showed that:
A) Tina was in an alliance with Colby and Keith pre-merge
B) Her alliance joined with outsiders Jerri and Lamber at the merge to combat Kucha
C) Tina, knowing Keith had previous votes, gave Keith the first individual immunity win, which guaranteed that Ogakor would be able to beat Kucha in a tie vote and proceed to pagong them
D) Tina was the cause of the "Good people need to win!" theory that led to Ogakor kicking out Jerri and Amber before Elisabeth and Rodger. It was also why Colby picked Tina over Keith.

The editors showed other instances of her thinking strategically, such as when she voted off her friend Maralyn early in the game, but Tina was still properly overshadowed by distraction characters like Jerri and Colby.

Brett, meanwhile, has never gotten higher than a 2 visibility in all of Samoa, and the only time he was shown strategizing was in this week's episode. His rating is usually UTR1 or INV1, which are completely toneless, irrelevant edits. I mean, hell, in last week's episode he said one word ("180!" at the auction) in the entire hour.
 
^^ Hopefully you read the rest of it where I agreed with you 100% that he's overrated, that he's not playing the game as well as he thinks he's playing it (he's just blabbing about what a mastermind he is), that Monica was correct in pointing out that he's there mostly because of idols not excellent gameplay, and that I can't stand Russell and I don't want him to win.

I just think he will win if he gets to the end the same way Todd won China or Dick won Big Brother. The jury should be able to see through Russell's self-promotion (and the promotion of Probst on his behalf) but I don't have any faith that they will.
 
Also, I like Mick and Jaison. They seem like decent, smart, likable guys (and OK they're both HOT) and certainly far preferable as winners to Russell (and of course, Natalie would be preferable too). I just hate the lazy way they're playing the game, it's exactly the kind of strategy that always frustrates me i.e. people who are afraid to make what they perceive as risky moves until it's too late. It's the Denise from China move; marching to a finale that will inevitably exclude you.

The people employing this strategy frequently fail to calculate the inherent risk in NOT making a move at the right time. In other words, going against Russell now might be risky if it backfires and he stays, but keeping him there a TC or two longer also brings its own risks because you may not be able to get rid of him later on. And that's the flaw in this kind of reasoning; Mick and Jaison see one risk when really there are two.

When exactly do they think they can eliminate Russell? As falconfan correctly pointed out, that TC was the best time to do it because Russell's bluff obviously meant he wasn't going to play the idol. And even if he did, Monica would be the one going home, not Mick or Jaison, so they should have rolled the dice and voted for Russell (and of course we now know it would have paid off). As it is now, Russell can play the idol at the next TC, it will be re-planted, he will probably find it again, and play it yet again at F5 and that takes him to F4 which (if there is a 3-person finale instead of 2) leaves him one immunity challenge away from the finals. And don't think he can't win that immunity because while he's breezing through at F4, he will certainly take the opportunity to get rid of Immunity threats like Jaison/Brett/Mick. Hell, he may not even need immunity since the stupid F3 set-up favors players like Russell, because all he needs is a tie vote at TC, and you know that little troll will be able to make fire and win his way into the finale (making his position with the jury even more respectable).

Mick and Jaison took a huge risk in NOT voting Russell out this week, and I think it's a risk that will prove to be fatal in their game, when Russell makes it to the end and gets practically every jury vote. All he has to do is stand up and say, "I dragged my team to the finish line and I found three idols without any clues." GAME OVER.

Oh and Jaison? You think pointing out to the jury that "the team made decisions together" is going to win their vote over the perceived leader/alpha-strategist blowhard? Yeah, ask Becky from Cook Islands, Cassandra from Fiji, Amanda from China, or Steven from Tocantins how that worked out.
 
I do think it wasnt the right time to get rid of russell
Coz then they wouldnt have Shambo on their side. And with Moncia + brett left... it could be a potential danger.
Now that monica's gone tho, they really really should try to ally (Natalie, Mick & Jaison + brett) to blindside Russ.
Then Nat, Mick & jaison would be free to go the F3 easily

At the same time, I have a feeling that Russ is going to try to eliminate people who are likable: Mick being first, brett and then Jaison
 
I disagree. He's not the only one playing the game, he's just the only one who's going over the top about it. He's being way overrated. Besides, he's treating people like crap and breaking deals here and there and I'm sure Karma will get to him in the end if he goes there. He was also lucky enough to find the idols that the production didn't bother to hide well.

Agreed. This leads me to sharing that this is the first season where I felt that the producers intervened and were in cahoots (to things above board, of course) with Russell. I think they told him to disclose that he was a millionaire; I don't believe for a second that he blabbed on his own volition. I have no proof of course but I did think back to Stacy Shillman's claim about the producers saving Rudy.

Thanks to slipintothefog for the info. It took me many seasons but, yep, that's basically how I was able to determine the winner/finalist (CBS wants us to know, lol). I find Episode 2 to be the most revealing. For example, it seemed meaningless at the time which is why I took notice to it (referring to JT and Stephen bonding while fishing on Tocantins).
 
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