The expanding Israel-Hamas war

[TX-Beau]

The International Court of Justice begins hearings Thursday on South Africa’s accusation of genocide against Israel, contending that the Jewish state’s military response to Hamas attacks launched from Gaza violates the international treaty drafted in the aftermath of Nazi Germany’s systematic extermination of six million Jews...

MSN

So is South Africa a front for someone else? Are they really just that offended or is there something they are after that's not humanitarian?

No matter what the court says, Israel won't listen, so I suspect this is part of someone's propaganda effort.

I think that Netanyahu wants Gaza and plans to use it to aid in his political survival, but I don't know if outright extermination is his goal. I suspect he'd like things better if all his neighbors were forced to pay for his violence.

 

[rareboy]

SA is likely acting as a proxy, but nothing will come of this.

For a lot of the far hard right Israelis, the expulsion of all Palestinians is absulutely the goal...they see their security only once Gaza is permanently occupied and controlled by them.

Without the never-ending rallying point around Palestine, the other middle eastern countries don't have the need to fight Israel.

 

[KaraBulut]

For a lot of the far hard right Israelis, the expulsion of all Palestinians is absulutely the goal...they see their security only once Gaza is permanently occupied and controlled by them....

Both sides have pretended for some time that there was a "two state solution". When politicians on both sides gave speeches, they would say one thing in English and another in Hebrew or Arabic.

All that has changed is that the English speeches now sound like the speeches in the other language. Both sides have become increasingly orthodox and radicalized. The demographics for both sides don't favor the moderate voices.

 

[TX-Beau]

SA is likely acting as a proxy, but nothing will come of this.

For a lot of the far hard right Israelis, the expulsion of all Palestinians is absulutely the goal...they see their security only once Gaza is permanently occupied and controlled by them.

Without the never-ending rallying point around Palestine, the other middle eastern countries don't have the need to fight Israel.

I don't think anyone believes that Israel is going to listen to the court whatever it says. This is someone's propaganda game. I'd accuse the usual suspects, but I can't see what that would benefit the usual suspects.

 

[rareboy]

You have to remember that this whole 'war' was sponsored and initiated by rrrzia and Iran as a means of diverting western resources and attention away from Ukraine and to divide the western countries.

It has been successful to some degree on both counts.

It also helps isolate the US because of its unflagging support of Israel. An isolated US and fractured west is good for certain nations.

It is no accident that it is a BRICS member bringing the charges

 

[rareboy]

IDF is focused on Khan Yunis now, where they have discovered 300 shafts, destroyed over 100 tunnels and underground weapons plants and stores. Israel is also systematically destroying the houses of the Hamas fighters....likely answering why they have not achieved the level of ground control as in the north part of the Gaza strip.

While IDF is shelling central Gaza from off the coast...I am still puzzled as to why, unlike in the north, Israel has not moved more aggressively to gain total control of the coastal area in order to prevent any boats from supplying aid or transporting fighters out.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Repeating IDF talking points while tut-tutting their war crimes will earn my nation the attacks that are coming. We have become the accomplices of atrocities just as surely as any collaborator, appeaser, or supplier of the Nazis was.

Hamas, the Houthis, and the others can all be wrong, but scorched earth annihilation by Israel is more wrong.

Iran will succeed in drawing us into war and unifying the groups, and the Saudis will be on their back foot.

 

[KaraBulut]

Repeating IDF talking points while tut-tutting their war crimes will earn my nation the attacks that are coming. We have become the accomplices of atrocities just as surely as any collaborator, appeaser, or supplier of the Nazis was.

Hamas, the Houthis, and the others can all be wrong, but scorched earth annihilation by Israel is more wrong.

Iran will succeed in drawing us into war and unifying the groups, and the Saudis will be on their back foot.

And the scorched earth approach against free-speech in the US isn't helping their cause.

The numbers are shocking. The latest estimates from Oxfam are that nearly 30,000 Gazans have been killed. That is 250 Palestinian deaths per day; for every 200 Palestinians in Gaza, 3 have been killed since October, about 50% of whom are women and children. There have been at least 60,000 Gazans known to be injured. Many of the bodies are still buried in rubble, so the numbers will continue to increase.

Every Palestinian who lives in Gaza knows someone who has been killed or injured.

Israel has also killed 117 members of the Press in Gaza. This is more that the total of journalists killed worldwide in the line of fire in 2021 an 2022 combined.

All this is doing is creating another generation of anti-Semites and terrorists. It was a trap and Israel has walked right into it.

 

[NotHardUp1]

And the scorched earth approach against free-speech in the US isn't helping their cause.

The numbers are shocking. The latest estimates from Oxfam are that nearly 30,000 Gazans have been killed. That is 250 Palestinian deaths per day; for every 200 Palestinians in Gaza, 3 have been killed since October, about 50% of whom are women and children. There have been at least 60,000 Gazans known to be injured. Many of the bodies are still buried in rubble, so the numbers will continue to increase.

Every Palestinian who lives in Gaza knows someone who has been killed or injured.

Israel has also killed 117 members of the Press in Gaza. This is more that the total of journalists killed worldwide in the line of fire in 2021 an 2022 combined.

All this is doing is creating another generation of anti-Semites and terrorists. It was a trap and Israel has walked right into it.

While crying "genocide," Israel prosecutes Old Testament style revenge, and intentionally creates a 20-to-1 or 30-to-1 retribution of deaths that harkens back to Hitler's pronouncements about how many Jews would be killed in retributions for revolts.

Israel's mad rage is fueling the Holocause deniers now, giving them credence as Israel claims martyrdom while slaughtering babies in the name of state security.

And, the opposition to anti-Israeli protests in the U.S., along with foolishly placed ads by the Anti-Defamation League, fan the flames of the fire that claims Jews control America's media.

It's all quite astoundingly bad policy from the Administration, from American supporters of Israel, and from the Anti-Defamation League. Feeding hatred is lighting one's own pyre.

 

[KaraBulut]

While crying "genocide," Israel prosecutes Old Testament style revenge, and intentionally creates a 20-to-1 or 30-to-1 retribution of deaths that harkens back to Hitler's pronouncements about how many Jews would be killed in retributions for revolts.

The Old Testament, of course, was just documenting the prevailing convention. This stuff goes waaaaayyyy back.

One of my middle eastern friends explained their concept of revenge as, "You kill one of us, we kill your entire family". It is the antithesis of American short memory, "Let's move on" culture.

It's all quite astoundingly bad policy from the Administration, from American supporters of Israel, and from the Anti-Defamation League. Feeding hatred is lighting one's own pyre.

Biden did the right thing by condemning terrorism and trying to toe the line of "We support Israel and we condemn Hamas". Biden is no fool though, and he knew he was dealing with a snake when backing Netanyahu. If he didn't already know this from his days in the Senate, he would have known if from the way Netanyahu dealt with the Obama National Security Team and even Obama himself.

I don't know how Biden is going to get himself out of the Chinese finger puzzle he's gotten us into. Two things might save him: the world's horror at what is happening in Gaza and the shit that the Israeli economy has turned into because they have called up so many workers to military service. Well, and maybe Netanyahu being sent to prison.

 

[NotHardUp1]

The Old Testament, of course, was just documenting the prevailing convention. This stuff goes waaaaayyyy back.

As anti-Israel as I am, and have long been, I never attributed to them the origin of overkill. It's just a convenient subjugation method used by humans the world over. I have no doubt the Innuit, the Maya, the Mongols, and every other empire used it any time necessary to intimidate and subjugate. Kill hope, and assimilation becomes the alternative.

One of my middle eastern friends explained their concept of revenge as, "You kill one of us, we kill your entire family". It is the antithesis of American short memory, "Let's move on" culture.

We get many things wrong in America today. But, to our everlasting credit, we did indeed lead the world ahead when we rebuilt Japan and Germany. Yes, it was in our economic, military, cultural, and political interest, but all that does not negate the wisdom of being a merciful victor. We look on our Japanese and German allies with pride, knowing our values are very different in many ways, but respecting the accomplishments of great nations overcoming their terrible mistakes.

Biden did the right thing by condemning terrorism and trying to toe the line of "We support Israel and we condemn Hamas". Biden is no fool though, and he knew he was dealing with a snake when backing Netanyahu. If he didn't already know this from his days in the Senate, he would have known if from the way Netanyahu dealt with the Obama National Security Team and even Obama himself.

It is a testament to Obama that he didn't take revenge. It was within his power, as foreign policy is much easier to effect than domestic for a president. Like JFK, Obama was unquestionably underqualified in experience to be at the top, but I'm still glad I voted for his election and re-election. It was more important to put him there than for him to be successful across the board.

I don't know how Biden is going to get himself out of the Chinese finger puzzle he's gotten us into. Two things might save him: the world's horror at what is happening in Gaza and the shit that the Israeli economy has turned into because they have called up so many workers to military service. Well, and maybe Netanyahu being sent to prison.

I'm no Biden fan, but I don't fault him for the position. He inherited a nation and government that has been relentlessly and irrationally pro-Israel. This policy should have ended way back in the Carter Administration, but didn't. The ascent of Christian Fundamentalism ensured it could not. Ironically, Carter was a Fundamentalist, but didn't confuse his religion with his Consttitutional oath of office, and he rebuffed the Moral Majority and other wingnuts who thought they'd exploit his affiliation. That helped get him voted out.

But, Biden could have signaled to the Arabs that America would not support the war once the bombing started and towns were levelled. He did not.

We would have been wise to let the enemies know that they would not be attacked by us if they bombed Israel in return. But, treaties don't allow it.

I'm not sure Biden had a good hand to play. But, if he were not running for re-election, I don't think he would have done as much damage as he has.

As it stands now, we have a very real probabilty of a Mid-East War that will become a conflagration.

 

[rareboy]

Meanwhile today, the US and Britain, with the support of other allies, have bombed Iranian backed Houthi positions in Yemen. The Houthis have been launching attacks against Israeli and other ships in the Red Sea.

 

[TX-Beau]

That was less about Israel and more about trade in the Gulf of Aden, plus it appears Iran has seized a tanker.

Iran is just using the excuse of Gaza to do what they always wanted to do anyway.

It won't end well for those Houthis.

 

[KaraBulut]

...I'm no Biden fan, but I don't fault him for the position. He inherited a nation and government that has been relentlessly and irrationally pro-Israel. This policy should have ended way back in the Carter Administration, but didn't. The ascent of Christian Fundamentalism ensured it could not. Ironically, Carter was a Fundamentalist, but didn't confuse his religion with his Consttitutional oath of office, and he rebuffed the Moral Majority and other wingnuts who thought they'd exploit his affiliation. That helped get him voted out.

He also inherited an Israel policy from his predecessor that did a lot of inflammatory things like move the embassy to Jerusalem, changed references to "Israel and the Occupied Territories" to say "Israel", discontinued support to Palestine that was part of an effort to keep the peace, ignored the aggressive nature of Jewish settlers illegally taking over Palestinian land in the West Bank and outsourced Israel policy to his son-in-law who grew up in a household where Netanyahu was a frequent house guest.

But, Biden could have signaled to the Arabs that America would not support the war once the bombing started and towns were levelled. He did not.

So far, he's using the State Department to send messages in person to Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which is as it should be. However, he's up against the "fuck you" attitude of Netanyahu and his cabinet.

It should be noted that Netanyahu did can the Israeli minister who proposed nuking Gaza back in November. , likely after pressure from the US.

We would have been wise to let the enemies know that they would not be attacked by us if they bombed Israel in return. But, treaties don't allow it.

He'll never send that message because of the puppeteer relationship between Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran. It has been a success because Iran is letting it be known that they do not want to be in a direct confrontation with the US. That puts us back into the proxy wars that America and Britain have made the norm since the 1940s.

As it stands now, we have a very real probabilty of a Mid-East War that will become a conflagration.

It's been at war for millennia. It will continue to be so. This is just another little dust-up in a part of the world that lives mostly in the past and for revenging past transgressions.

Meanwhile today, the US and Britain, with the support of other allies, have bombed Iranian backed Houthi positions in Yemen. The Houthis have been launching attacks against Israeli and other ships in the Red Sea.

That was less about Israel and more about trade in the Gulf of Aden, plus it appears Iran has seized a tanker.

Iran is just using the excuse of Gaza to do what they always wanted to do anyway.

It won't end well for those Houthis.

Trade=oil, of course. The spice must flow. Especially in an election year.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Meanwhile today, the US and Britain, with the support of other allies, have bombed Iranian backed Houthi positions in Yemen. The Houthis have been launching attacks against Israeli and other ships in the Red Sea.

More to my point. The generals always think they can keep the genie in the bottle, but it escapes. We are moving closer to war.

So far, he's using the State Department to send messages in person to Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which is as it should be. However, he's up against the "fuck you" attitude of Netanyahu and his cabinet.

My take is the conflict would do better to boil over. Let Israel go it alone. Let her reap what she has sown. She takes U.S. backing for granted. It's all well and good to act as if there is no retribution, but it will come quickly if we ever signal we're done.

It should be noted that Netanyahu did can the Israeli minister who proposed nuking Gaza back in November. , likely after pressure from the US.

A bone.

He'll never send that message because of the puppeteer relationship between Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran. It has been a success because Iran is letting it be known that they do not want to be in a direct confrontation with the US. That puts us back into the proxy wars that America and Britain have made the norm since the 1940s.

Indeed, Iran understands the price of a mismatch. And, too much is made about mullahs and Fundamentalists and too little about the intelligence of Iran and her long culture. She is like China. Those who discount either in an unbalanced assessment ignore how long both have experience in international strategy. Iran is not fogetting how costly the Iraq War was for her. And that was with a far weaker enemy.

It's been at war for millennia. It will continue to be so. This is just another little dust-up in a part of the world that lives mostly in the past and for revenging past transgressions.

Without a conflagration, yes. As long as a pot is covered, it boils and boils over. But, open, it boils dry much quicker.

The leveling of the cities in Gaza will be far more impactful than any "dust up." Now, the moderates in the Arab countries have no voice at the table. There is no question that Israel is just as bent on annihilating their enemy, by race and nation. It serves little to protest that Palestine or any other entity seeks the eradication of Israel when Israel seeks the exact same goal in reverse. They are equal.

And Israel has lost much support from her barbarisms. As it should be.

Trade=oil, of course. The spice must flow. Especially in an election year.

True, but despite the Great Houses of the Landsraad, America is far less dependent upon the spice as we were before Canada and the U.S. started fracking. We would not be OK with the tankers stopping, but we also wouldn't be dead in the water, as we would have in the 70's.

We asked Europe to pull away from the Russian energy teat. It's time for us to take our own advice. Let the Saudis and the Israelis go, and go at it.

 

[KaraBulut]

The leveling of the cities in Gaza will be far more impactful than any "dust up."

It's going to be a recruiting event for radicalism in the Palestinian community.

But for the rest of the Arab world, they look at Gaza and say, "Oh, no. Refugees." Israel has destroyed about half of the residential buildings in Gaza... because apparently Hamas was hiding under all of them.

If you think the Syrian refugee crisis was a mess, get ready for something 10 times worse.

True, but despite the Great Houses of the Landsraad, America is far less dependent upon the spice as we were before Canada and the U.S. started fracking. We would not be OK with the tankers stopping, but we also wouldn't be dead in the water, as we would have in the 70's.

America, yes. Most of that oil going through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal isn't bound for North America. With the "gas station with nuclear weapons" offline to European consumers, that oil is more important to the areas of Europe that don't have their own geological reserves.

Of note: in 2023 for the first time in quite a while, the US had a positive increase in GDP growth with a decrease in oil consumption. Another reason to keep Trump out of the White House.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-crude-output-rise-by-less-than-previously-forecast-2023-eia-2023-11-07/

 

[TX-Beau]

People see stats about oil import/export but generally don't consider what that means. In the Western world we have open markets so no, we don't need to import oil, but there are outlets for that foreign oil in business in the U.S. For example, Lukoil - a Russian oil company has gas stations on the East Coast. No, we don't NEED to buy from Russia, but in the past, those states certainly did. I don't know what that franchise is doing now, or if indeed it's still in business. They probably just buy from a local supplier and raise prices, but that profit if it still exists, goes right back to Russia, and its American jobs that were lost if they're out of business.

That's just one little one, out of the myriad ways the international market impacts countries like ours that don't "need" to import anything. It's just not that simple to say that like it's a bulwark or shield from an international crisis in the oil market. It's not, if Europe has an oil drought - due to political or production for some reason, we're going to feel it. The world feels it, which is why Kara is exactly correct in saying that the spice must flow, (Dune's analogy to oil is very clear) and why those Houthis and Iran are going to take it right up the ass if this continues.

It won't even be just the U.S. that will be demanding hide, it will be every modern power with a developed economy (and weapons) that will want heads.

No one wants the pain of taking ourselves out of the international market for fossil fuel products. Not only would that sacrifice influence, but it would also have a huge economic impact.

 

[Norri]

I agree with your point about the US leaving the world oil market, influence would be lost and how can you be a world power if you don’t engage with the world but I have always wondered why doing so wouldn’t be a way to MAGA. American oil for American drivers and cheaper too. Trump would never say such a thing but I’m surprised none of his minions have never suggested it as it fits with that philosophy.

 

[rareboy]

What we are seeing with the Houthis is another aspect of the Iran/Ruzzia axis war against the west. After being relatively dormant, it is being reactivated to draw resources and attention.

Expect flare-ups in various African countries next.

 

[rareboy]

Palestine and Israel news today on map - Jerusalem today - Israel News today - Palestine News today - israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

Israeli-Palestine conflict in live news interactive map. Israeli-Palestinian war. Israeli-Lebanese war. War map

israelpalestine.liveuamap.com

The map now shows central Gaza partitioned into smaller settlement zones with IDF control surrounding them...but interesting that IDF control around Jabalia has decreased over the last week.

The length of the conflict in Gaza will be totally dependent on the ability of IDF to quarantine individual settlements from each other in order to strangle out the Hamas forces, one zone at a time and then denying movement by all Palestinians from one area to another.