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The Tremor before the Storm?

belamo said:
I'm still waiting for "later this year or next": you told us so.

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:cool: :mrgreen: :rolleyes:
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If you would have actually looked at my post that I quoted from MAY 28, instead of being your usual smart-ass self, you would have known that "later this year" is NOW.

So just for you ORIGINALLY SAID BY CITYBOY-STL ON MAY 28, 2019
cityboy-stl said:
At this time in 1928 and in 2007 the economy was great as well. Historically it takes 3 to 5 years for the artificial high induced by tax cuts for the rich to wear off. Then the withdrawal and hangover sets in and the bill comes due. We are reaching that historical point later this year or next. History does have a tendency to repeat.
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cityboy-stl said:
If you would have actually looked at my post that I quoted from MAY 28, instead of being your usual smart-ass self, you would have known that "later this year" is NOW.

So just for you ORIGINALLY SAID BY CITYBOY-STL ON MAY 28, 2019
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If, instead of hoping for and assuming a mistake on my part, your smart ass had bothered to actually read my post, you would have realized that I merely pointed out that you still have about one year and a quarter for your profecy to be revealed as "accurate" :cool: :rolleyes: So don't rush to fulfill your own prophecy... and do not jump into the waterless pool of conclusions about belamo :mrgreen:

Later this year is also September this year, October this yeat, November this year and December this year.
 
I didn't think you were seriously taking seriously this sort of rambling about when are we going to sink into the next financial chaos (I started my own stupid thread about it back in 2012, I have been considering reviving it for the past few months). That inverted bond warning has been being talked for ages now, and this small talk from garbage-n-n sums it all up perfectly..:

"Part of the yield curve has been inverted for several months. In March, the yield on the 3-month Treasury bill rose above the rate on the 10-year Treasury note for the first time since 2007. It inverted again on July 24 and has remained negative. But Wednesday marked the first time in over a decade that the "main" yield curve — the 2-year / 10-year ratio — had inverted.
That spooked Wall Street, because an inversion of the 2/10 curve has preceded every recession in modern history. That doesn't mean a recession is imminent, however: The Great Recession started nearly two years after the December 2005 yield-curve inversion."

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html
 
67934685_2379717428775121_3147617089825538048_n.jpg
 
All of this was entirely predictable. Going back to the 1920s, tax cuts for the rich cause a recession/depression within 3-5 years. The yield curve is just one of the symptoms. Maybe it's a fore-shock now. Maybe not. But it's coming. The historical cycle is starting to repeat. Fasten your seat belts.
 
cityboy-stl said:
All of this was entirely predictable.
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Exactly: like that we are all going to die.

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cityboy-stl said:
Going back to the 1920s, tax cuts for the rich cause a recession/depression within 3-5 years. The yield curve is just one of the symptoms. Maybe it's a fore-shock now. Maybe not. But it's coming. The historical cycle is starting to repeat. Fasten your seat belts.
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Succession is not causation.
 
^^ So you believe everything is wonderful with the economy and it is going to boom for years to come? This is just an insignificant event and history is irrelevant?
 
cityboy-stl said:
^^ So you believe everything is wonderful with the economy and it is going to boom for years to come? This is just an insignificant event and history is irrelevant?
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No: I am saying that your warning about the economy is as relevant as warning everybody alive that they are all going to die.

If you can't say when and how, you are being as clueless about the economy as those who believe that everything is wonderful, or as myself, who made two threads about it, one back in 2012 :rolleyes:

https://www.justusboys.com/forum/threads/369004-Is-it-coming/page5

and one with a poll :mrgreen:

https://www.justusboys.com/forum/threads/471716-The-next-global-financial-meltdown



Actually, I am the sort of person who called a jubbite naive when, about ten years ago, believed that the crisis was a good opportunity investment that woud allow him to reap great earnings after twenty years, while the rest of the people stood there panicking about the economy: how can anyone be so sure that the system and logic that worked for the past decades is going to be valid even in the near future, when everybody is pointing at the uncharted territory we are entering with stratospheric debt and under-the-basement interest rates.
 
So we should ignore the lessons of history and be unprepared? We should be oblivious to the events, patterns, and warning signs of similar past circumstances and continue blindly doing the same thing and then wonder what happened when the same result occurs.

Besides trying to pinpoint something like this to an exact day and specific conditions is ridiculous and impossible...and you know it. The point is to observe the warning signs, point them out, and be prepared when it does happen. That is not irrelevant. Ignoring historical warning signs would be foolish.
 
cityboy-stl said:
^ So we should ignore the lessons of history and be unprepared. We should be oblivious to the events, patterns, and warning signs of similar past circumstances and continue blindly doing the same thing and wonder what happened when the same thing occurs.

Besides trying pinpoint something like this to an exact day and specific conditions is ridiculous and impossible...and you know it. The point is to observe the warning signs, point them out, and be ready when it does happen. That is not irrelevant.
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We should learn from the "lessons of history" that would apply. It would be great if people were not oblivious of certain events, patterns and warning signs, and did not focus only on the ones they believe that matter exclusively.

If you consider there are "similar past circumstances", you will surely be able to point out the specific "warning signs" to be considered, how to be ready, and likewise, if we are really as equipped to understand and treat the current situation as you claim, you will also have a sound enough understanding of the whole situation to be able to conceptualize it and enlighten us about its nature: is it, for example, a Minsky moment? something not yet academically accepted in economic literature, but that you have developed on your own, and that you are ready to share with us?

In any case, you know that economic theory is a captain always one battle behind, who discusses and explains it after it's over.

Finally, I would be curious to know about your diagnosis and critic of the causes of the Great Depression, and of the blunders committed trying to overcome it.

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cityboy-stl said:
Explain what this means? I failed mind reading class.
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Oh, just a passing, brief comment on your perceptive abilities.
 
The US manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time since 2009. It could be a simple correction cycle event....or it might just be that domestic consumer demand is petering out and that Trump has now driven so many people from around the world to refuse to buy American as long as there is this America First policy, egregious tariffs and trade wars.

https://www.axios.com/manufacturing...UfTx_HLXDbs-prOPtCCve3_W9Wqaq9CM6Yimn0ZnToIeA
 
rareboy said:
The US manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time since 2009. It could be a simple correction cycle event....or it might just be that domestic consumer demand is petering out and that Trump has now driven so many people from around the world to refuse to buy American as long as there is this America First policy, egregious tariffs and trade wars.

https://www.axios.com/manufacturing...UfTx_HLXDbs-prOPtCCve3_W9Wqaq9CM6Yimn0ZnToIeA
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There is no way the economy gets better, with an erratic cray cray loon in the White House. On the news feeds even the Pubs are concerned.
 
I told you it was a bit too early this summer for the Apocalypse Dow...


dow.PNG
 
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