United States Presidential Election, 2020.

[rareboy]

It is staggering to see that Collins won again...that Lindsey Graham won again...

After this, I have to say that the US definitely deserves the government it is electing.....

 

[DepravedMuscleFTL]

as of 11:24 eastern time - Wisconsin Michigan and Nevada are all blue - if it remains that way then Biden would have enough to win....

 

[Dominus]

I'll stick my neck out and predict Trump 283, Biden 255.

Who's going to chop off your head? Because it looks like Biden will win the three states that he needs to push him over to 270.

 

[Stardreamer]

If Pennsylvania doesn't turn blue then it looks like it might be a tie which means Congress will decide who wins and that is not a good thing.

 

[viktorredd]

Not from the US, but been following this. The fact that the election is even this close is ridiculous.

 

[frankfrank]

At this hour: Nevada, Michigan are precarious but leaning Biden...Aridzone probably Biden...Wisconsin looks like a done deal for Biden.

Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia look probable for Agent Orange, but they're within reach for Biden and of course not called yet. North Carolina, though with the closest margin, is the farthest reach of these three. That's because it has the highest percentage of all votes now counted.

Did Biden end up with Maine-2nd after all? The map shows Maine solid blue, though showing Nebraska striped as it should be. If that is true, it removes the possibility of a tie, and of course we know what would happen in a tie: there are fifty House votes, with each state getting one composite vote.

The reason the Electoral Votes (which shouldn't even exist) are appearing to be close to a tie, is PRECISELY the same reason that Agent Orange WOULD STILL WIN in such a tie, despite Biden almost surely winning the popular vote. There are, I think, 26 or 27 states with Republican delegations sitting in the House of Representatives. Despite Biden's national popular vote, the Electoral College tie AND the fact that a House vote would give it all to Trump, are both possible because smaller states are more often Republican, and both Electoral votes and a House tie-breaking vote favors Republicans over national votes.

I knew North Carolina was trouble when it was still leaning blue, when it was reported that 97% of the early vote had already been counted, which is out-of-sequence with many of the other states who are counting those last.

Real-life lessons from a 21st-Century Civics class at high school or university, if such a class even exists anymore. These were never even hinted at when I had such a class decades ago.

****************
This is FAR too close for my tastes or peace of mind, though the probability of Biden winning it appears to be north of 50%. Not very far north of it, but this is NOT fun. At. All.

 

[Stardreamer]

WP shows Maine-2nd is going for Trump

 

[gsdx]

@ viktorredd

Not from the US, but been following this. The fact that the election is even this close is ridiculous.

I agree. I live in Canada and we know the damage Trump has done not only to the United States, but to Canada and to many other countries around the world. We don't offer our opinions willy nilly. We went through several terms with an asshole prime minister recently who did to us almost exactly what Trump has done to the United States these past 4 years. (We had, I believe, 11 years with Harper.) Granted, what Harper did was on a much smaller scale, but what he did has taken years to try to piece back together again. I shudder to think what state we would be in if Harper were in power today in the midst of this pandemic.

Trust me. It wasn't a close race when we finally booted Harper of Parliament Hill. We see it all happening again south of the border but on a much larger scale.

We dodged a bullet. The United States is facing a firing squad.

Am I being overly dramatic? Probably, but at least I know what I'm talking about. I've been there.

 

[jaysizzles]

At this hour:

Did Biden end up with Maine-2nd after all? The map shows Maine solid blue, though showing Nebraska striped as it should be. If that is true, it removes the possibility of a tie, and of course we know what would happen in a tie: there are fifty House votes, with each state getting one composite vote.

On CNN's map they're showing Biden with 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes, and Trump with 0. I don't think there's enough vote count in from rural Maine yet for them to make that call, but the 2nd district is pretty red so it seems Trump will get that 1. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts.

What I just realized when looking at my post from earlier today is that on 538's interactive map they're showing Maine with only 2 electoral votes. Not only is their polling messed up, but so are their graphics.

 

[frankfrank]

^ So that's why MSNBC is still giving us TIE scenarios - that district (Maine-2nd) hasn't been called yet. Ugh. Scary.

 

[Stardreamer]

On CNN's map they're showing Biden with 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes, and Trump with 0. I don't think there's enough vote count in from rural Maine yet for them to make that call, but the 2nd district is pretty red so it seems Trump will get that 1. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts.

What I just realized when looking at my post from earlier today is that on 538's interactive map they're showing Maine with only 2 electoral votes. Not only is their polling messed up, but so are their graphics.

538 shows Maine and Nebraska's separate districts at the bottom of the page. They seem to have taken down their interactive map now. It was having real problems with how the election was turning out in contrast to the model the map is based on.

 

[Stardreamer]

Maine's second district was always projected to go to Trump and that appears to be the way it is going to go. That is why we NEED Pennsylvania to go to Biden. It was Florida going to Trump that screwed all the predictions up I think.

 

[Dominus]

Biden just locked in WI. MI is still leaning Biden. PA is still expected to go Biden once the early and mail in ballots get counted.

 

[jaysizzles]

538 shows Maine and Nebraska's separate districts at the bottom of the page. They seem to have taken down their interactive map now. It was having real problems with how the election was turning out in contrast to the model the map is based on.

Yes, thanks...I see what they did now. If you hover on the state on the map it tells you the state wide total electoral votes, and then the split votes are off to the lower left and have to be added to the person that wins statewide, or to the other one. Very confusing!

 

[MystikWizard]

This is the beginning of the end for Trump now that Wisconsin has been called and Michigan is following the same trending patterns as Wisconsin.

With Arizona's seemingly surprise flip, Pennsylvania may not even be needed now, but my instinct is Biden will win there, as well after all the absentee votes have been counted and the Philadelphia votes come in.

The most disappointing news of the night is the Senate appears to still be staying Red, which means once again, obstructionism and nothing will get done during Biden's 4 years but the bare minimum needed to maintain the status quo in government.

 

[Kulindahr]

Michigan has flipped -- Trump can't win unless it somehow flips back.

Meanwhile, it looks like no one has a majority in Georgia's special election, so it will go another round, a runoff between the top two -- which means that seat will go Republican.

At least this means Biden won't be able to play "pack the Court" no matter how much pressure is put on him. Reactionaries tried to get Trump to add some extra justices and I'm actually surprised he never tried, now Biden won't have the temptation to give in to the radicals because it will be obvious it won't get past Congress.

But watch now: whatever happens with the Senate, Trump is going to be frantically appointing judges to fill the two dozen empty spots in the judiciary that don't have nominees yet, and the Senate will ignore passing a much-neeeded COVID relief bill to confirm all Trump's appointees.

 

[jaysizzles]

This is the beginning of the end for Trump now that Wisconsin has been called and Michigan is following the same trending patterns as Wisconsin.

With Arizona's seemingly surprise flip, Pennsylvania may not even be needed now, but my instinct is Biden will win there, as well after all the absentee votes have been counted and the Philadelphia votes come in.

The most disappointing news of the night is the Senate appears to still be staying Red, which means once again, obstructionism and nothing will get done during Biden's 4 years but the bare minimum needed to maintain the status quo in government.

Yes, it's 270 for Biden without Pennsylvania, assuming Biden gets Arizona, along with Wisconsin and Michigan. That's also including 3 from Maine and 1 from Nebraska. 538 total electoral college votes all together and less 270 is 268 total for Trump.

But Nevada has said they will not release updates until Thursday morning...

 

[Kulindahr]

If Pennsylvania doesn't turn blue then it looks like it might be a tie which means Congress will decide who wins and that is not a good thing.

It would be interesting historically, though!

But nerve-wracking, since a tie would mean there won't be a winner until after the New Year; it's the new Congress that would be deciding, not the present one -- and it goes first to the House, where it looks like the GOP may actually gain a dozen seats. But seats don't really matter except where they determine who controls a state's delegation since each state delegation would get one vote.

 

[Stardreamer]

It would be interesting historically, though!

But nerve-wracking, since a tie would mean there won't be a winner until after the New Year; it's the new Congress that would be deciding, not the present one -- and it goes first to the House, where it looks like the GOP may actually gain a dozen seats. But seats don't really matter except where they determine who controls a state's delegation since each state delegation would get one vote.

Yes, I was listening to a discussion on how that is set up. In that case, all those 'fly-over' red states will actually make a difference, which means throwing the vote into the House is a win for Trump.

 

[Stardreamer]

Okay, I stand corrected now, I was using VoteFerret's interactive map to try and sort out the count but it doesn't show the actual vote count unless you over a button. It was confusing me because the marker it had for showing the halfway point on the vote slider is in the wrong place and was giving me the impression that we would have a tie if PA went red.