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What is new on the Gay Marriage front?

Alnitak said:
Of course it would take a Democratic victory to do that. Catch 22.
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It would take a Democratic victory IN THE STATES, actually, to allow the 2020 Democratic takeover of The House. SENATE districts are not Gerrymandered because they are elected at-large in each state. However, after the 2010 wave, the Republican sweep in STATE legislatures gave them control of all the mechanisms of redrawing Congressional Districts (both state and federal ones!!) in the states where they took control (or were already in control).

Of course Democrats do the same thing.

Alnitak said:
Even the Deep South is more accepting of same sex marriage now than the country was of interracial marriage in the 1970s.
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The Deep South is more accepting of same sex marriage than places like Illinois, California, New York, etc. were fifteen years ago. Perhaps even Massachusetts.
 
frankfrank said:
The Deep South is more accepting of same sex marriage than places like Illinois, California, New York, etc. were fifteen years ago. Perhaps even Massachusetts.
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You will see conservatives pander to a small and vocal minority of fundamentalists but I don't think the South is quite the hostile territory it once was.
 
Alnitak said:
You will see conservatives pander to a small and vocal minority of fundamentalists but I don't think the South is quite the hostile territory it once was.
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Not in cities of any appreciable size no, it still is in small rural towns.
 
hotatlboi said:
Overall yes, but there are more rural places in the south. In my state (Georgia) it's 29%. In Mississippi it's 51%.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...=piKdyXXj4EKXq6bwnQ6IhQ&bvm=bv.79908130,d.eXY
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It depends on how you define rural I suppose.

The US Census defines it as such:

The Census Bureau will begin the delineation process by identifying
and aggregating contiguous census tracts, each having a land area of
less than three square miles and a population density of at least 1,000
ppsm. After the initial urban area core with a population density of
1,000 ppsm or more is identified, additional census tracts with a land
area less than three square miles and with a population density of at
least 500 ppsm will be included if contiguous to any qualifying census
tracts.

https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/docs/fedreg/fedregv76n164.txt
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The above formula would seem to include most suburbs. Less than 500 pp/sq mi is equivalent to a family every four acres or more. That's a lot of elbow room, at least to someone whom has never lived in a rural area. In the South, Republicans tend to do well in white suburbs, while they do less well in Northern suburbs. I think that has more to do with their success than the urban/rural divide.
 
Alnitak said:
It depends on how you define rural I suppose.

The US Census defines it as such:

The above formula would seem to include most suburbs.
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My figure was from the previous Census table on rural/urban.

Here's the updated 2010 one:
http://www2.census.gov/geo/ua/PctUrbanRural_State.xls

Georgia is now 25% rural, Mississippi 50%, Tennessee 34%, Alabama 40%, Louisiana 27%, South Carolina 34%. All somewhat higher than the average.

But here's the thing, I can drive less than one hour outside Atlanta (a major city) and I'm in a backwards hick town. That doesn't really happen in the north.
 
Interesting article by Dahlia Lithwick about how out of touch with reality is the current Supreme Court:

Yale, Harvard, Yale, Harvard, Yale, Harvard, Harvard, Harvard, Columbia



But having covered the Court for 15 years, I’ve come to believe that what we’re seeing goes beyond ideology. Because ideology alone would not propel the justices to effect such massive shifts upon the constitutional landscape, inventing rights for corporations while gutting protections for women, minorities, and workers.
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But while we have gained diversity of background, we haven’t gained diversity of experience.
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But right-wing legal and political groups—who are much better at the confirmation game than their equivalents on the left—have added a final criteria that ensures the Court leans strongly in their favor. They have succeeded in setting the definition of the consummate judge: a humble, objective, nearly mechanical umpire who merely calls “balls and strikes,” in Roberts’s insincere but politically deft phrasing. This lets conservatives sell nominees who are far more conservative than liberal nominees are liberal.
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All of us import our values and experiences into our decision-making. The double-whammy at the current Court is that the justices are no longer allowed to acknowledge it, and that the pool of those with whom they unavoidably identify is so dangerously small and privileged.
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hotatlboi said:
But here's the thing, I can drive less than one hour outside Atlanta (a major city) and I'm in a backwards hick town. That doesn't really happen in the north.
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You can certainly do that from Indianapolis, Springfield IL, Columbus OH, Pittsburgh PA though...the "south" extends farther north than the maps imply. Parts of far southern Illinois are every bit as "southern" in character as Mississippi or southeast Alabama.
 
hotatlboi said:
But here's the thing, I can drive less than one hour outside Atlanta (a major city) and I'm in a backwards hick town. That doesn't really happen in the north.
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I get your point, but an hour's drive between 83 and the Susquehanna puts me in some of the most underdeveloped parts of the Northeast. Terrific seeing conditions for the telescope I might add.
 
frankfrank said:
You can certainly do that from Indianapolis, Springfield IL, Columbus OH, Pittsburgh PA though...the "south" extends farther north than the maps imply. Parts of far southern Illinois are every bit as "southern" in character as Mississippi or southeast Alabama.
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Can we add Portland, Oregon to that list? I don't know if I'd consider SW Washington "hick" but there's a drastic density difference not too far north along the I-5 corridor. But then again, I guess the Pacific Northwest is generally different density-wise than the rest of the country.

Lots of good news today.

SCOTUS's next conference is supposed to be the 25th. Now that the petitions for writ are in from the four states in the 6th circuit, what's the chance you think SCOTUS will make a decision and which way will it lead? I think they'll grant cert during their next conference, given how they didn't wait too long to deny it last month. If not this month, definitely next month. Hoping for a swift ruling come June (or earlier).
 
AstareGod said:
Can we add Portland, Oregon to that list? I don't know if I'd consider SW Washington "hick" but there's a drastic density difference not too far north along the I-5 corridor. But then again, I guess the Pacific Northwest is generally different density-wise than the rest of the country.

Lots of good news today.

SCOTUS's next conference is supposed to be the 25th. Now that the petitions for writ are in from the four states in the 6th circuit, what's the chance you think SCOTUS will make a decision and which way will it lead? I think they'll grant cert during their next conference, given how they didn't wait too long to deny it last month. If not this month, definitely next month. Hoping for a swift ruling come June (or earlier).
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It depends how fast the defendants in four states file their briefs. I expect Michigan will do so soon though as the AG has explicitly said that he doesn't object to the Supreme Court granting cert. They could just take Deboer and put the others on hold or they could wait until they're all ready for conference and grant cert/consolidate them. Regardless the conferences run through the middle of January so as long as we get in by then it's likely they'll hear a case and issue a ruling this term.
 
Montana's ban just struck down

GREAT FALLS, Mont. — A federal judge in Montana has struck down that state’s same-sex marriage ban.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Brian Morris comes in a challenge filed by the American Civil Liberties Union of Montana on behalf of four same-sex couples who sued to overturn the ban.

ACLU officials argued that Montana was bound by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ recent decision to strike down similar gay marriage bans in Idaho and Nevada.

Montana is the only state under the 9th Circuit’s jurisdiction still enforcing its same-sex marriage ban.

The ruling takes effect immediately.
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So ... with Kansas and South Carolina succumbing to the inevitable, that's that?
 
South Carolina could theoretically ask SCOTUS for a stay, since the 4th circuit denied it (actually SC has asked SCOTUS for a postponement). However, if recent history is anything to go by, SCOTUS will most likely deny the request for stay, and marriage equality will take effect at noon Eastern Time.

Kansas is a weird case, since the Gov or AG (or both? Can't keep it straight) is/are attempting to limit the ruling in Marie v. Moser to only the district court clerks involved in the suit. I remember the Prop 8 supporters trying to pull a similar stunt in California. The federal district court or 10th circuit just needs to step in and issue an order enjoining the state from enforcing the ban and be done with it.
 
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