Who will win Presidential election 2012?

[Ben1]

What do you think? Who will be next President? Obama or Romney?
NOT YOUR WISH- what is your opinion?

 

[MystikWizard]

I think Obama will still pull off the victory. I think the base will be re-energized (not as much as in 2008) enough to get out and vote. I think there are plenty of sound bites the Obama camp has on Romney that will portray him as someone you can't trust and is not out for the interests of Middle-Class America.

Even though the economy is the weak point, it still is frankly not Obama's first responsibility to handle the economy. That responsibility lies first with Congress. I think the media does a huge dis-service in perpetuating the lie that it is the president's job to manage the economy. So the Obama camp simply needs to have an effective advertising campaign that blames the Republicans in Congress for failing to work with the Dems and the President to pass legislation. Hopefully, there are some good sound bites for this, as well.

On Foreign Policy, his accomplishments are impeccable, in my view. In his actual job as "Commander in Chief", it was his leadership that was responsible for orchestrating the efforts killed the World's most wanted terrorist and virtually dismantled all of Al-Qaeda (something Bush couldn't do in 7 years because he was more interested in going to Iraq to finish his daddy's war and secure U.S. oil interests .... one of the worst tragedies in American history), kept us free from any terrorist attacks, improved relations with the Russians, brought Iran to the table for negotiating their nuclear program, etc.

 

[evanrick]

Romneys argument against the president is pretty weak, and when Romney runs out of baseless attack lines Obama will steamroll him.

 

[sonny10305]

I agree with both of my JUB brothers above, for starters Romney wil get very little if any support from Women most minorities and of course gays. I believe him to be very weak which will show in the debates where Obama will basically rule over Romney.
Forget what happened in Wisconsin I believe the general public to be fed up with the Rebublicans, my hope is that in addition to the presidency the Rebublicans regain control of the House. Boehner, give back that gavel to Pelosi so that the congress can once again become a functional body that will get things done.

 

[Benvolio]

I think Romney will win for the reasons stated in my previous thread. I would also point out that he has not had the national exposure that Obama has in that most of the public has never heard him in a long speech. Yet he is nip and tuck with Obama now. The Republicans have yet to name a vice presidential candidate which undoubtedly will help.
The Obama campaign is making big mistakes on an almost daily basis. Abandoning the unions in WI. Allowing leaks which hurt Israeli security and seeming lukewarm to Israel. "The private sector is just fine". "No, its not fine but its Republicans fault.'
It is hard to imagine a worse campaign plan than, the economy is bad, I am powerless and its someone else fault.
RealClearPolitics. com shows the latest polls on a daily basis and an electoral vote map. It shows Obama way ahead, with 11 states up for grabs, but they are states which have often gone Republican and Romney needs about 6. Then go to the polls for those states and Romney is ahead in more than enough, but mostly within the margin of error.

 

[Jack Springer]

Depends on who gets nasty right before the election.

 

[Telstra]

oh its an election year?
How cum there is no debate and SNL yet lol

 

[Stardreamer]

Though our esteemed colleague Mystikwizard is largely correct about the President's role in the economy, Obama will still succeed or fail based on the economy. If the voters are convinced that things are doing better (even if slowly) he will be reelected. If they feel the economy is getting worse and are still fearing for their jobs then he stands a good chance of being tossed out in favor of 'hope and change'.

 

[T-Rexx]

Barring some catastrophe, it is hard for me to imagine a scenario where Obama loses this election.

Romney is a poor candidate, who has difficulty articulating a message because he runs from every message he articulates. His advocacy of the economic policies of GWB is not very persuasive, since those policies resulted a major American depression. And his promotion of his "business expertise" is similarly not very persuasive, since that expertise consisted of his ability to eliminate American jobs and dissolve American companies. Also, look for Democrats to point out that the only two presidents in the last hundred years to enter the White House from a primarily business background were George W. Bush and Herbert Hoover. (For whatever reason, businessmen have historically been incompetent when it comes to running a country). The election will be relatively close to superficial inspection. But, Obama is likely to destroy Romney in the electoral college.

On the other hand, there is a probability that both the House and Senate will end up in Republican control. That will be a disaster for America, of course, since it will mean that virtually nothing is going to happen for the next two to four years. All attempts to reform the economy and improve employment are destined for defeat in the Congress.

 

[JayQueer]

Romney will win .

A lot of Democrats are scared sh*tless (even if they don't admit it publicly). The panic is setting in, and it will only get worse as the negative attacks from Obama & liberals increase as the election gets closer.

I would expect every iota of Mitt Romney's past, Ann Romney's past, the Romney sons' past, every aspect of the Vice Presidential candidate and his family's personal life will be examined for any opportunity to smear them with personal attacks. They already accused Mitt Romney of being an anti-gay bully in high school. They accused Ann Romney of "never having to work a day in her life," but that attack misfired.

Further, the Citizens United Supreme Court ruling has allowed wealthy conservatives to spend massive amounts of unlimited money into discreetly-named "Political Action Committees" or "PACs" that can freely campaign for Republican candidates. One of the reasons why Walker was able to easily win his recall election despite union protests was because of the PACs who were able to run countless advertisements & run a positive PR campaign for Walker, swaying swing voters or voters in the middle.

The combination of poor economy, high unemployment, African-American voters who are disenchanted with Obama (they feel like Obama "sold out" to white liberals & gays), young people who are unmotivated to vote as they did in 2008, PLUS the Citizens United ruling spell doom for the Democrats & President Obama in November 2012.

I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I predict Mitt Romney will win the presidential election.

 

[Rolyo85]

Romney could win, but he has so many factors working against him, that it would be a close win. His chief issue is nothing as mundane as his credentials or past though, or his experience. It's how thoroughly - THOROUGHLY - NOT exciting he is as a candidate. He is lucky that Republicans vote robotically. If the Democrat party came with a candidate like Mitt Romney, he wouldn't even register on most voters' radar.

 

[JayQueer]

Romney could win, but he has so many factors working against him, that it would be a close win. His chief issue is nothing as mundane as his credentials or past though, or his experience. It's how thoroughly - THOROUGHLY - NOT exciting he is as a candidate. He is lucky that Republicans vote robotically. If the Democrat party came with a candidate like Mitt Romney, he wouldn't even register on most voters' radar.

Well for more than enough voters, the fact that Mitt Romney is not Barack Obama is good enough.......

But you did bring up a good point that Republicans are a very cohesive group. When their pastors and church leaders tell them to vote for the Republican candidate, you better believe they will all turn out to vote. They believe they are following God's orders by voting Republican. They will knock on all of their neighbors doors and drive them to the polls too. It's God's will, you know?

On the other hand, most self-identified Democrats don't even vote in the elections. Or if they do go to the polls, some don't have proper I.D. and get turned away.

 

[chance1]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

sort of a fun way to look at the electoral map - do what if's etc.

I started with the premise that CNN is correct at 247-206 for Obama for now with their wins and leans being accurate - for Romney to win he has to take:
Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia

a tall task

so I believe Obama will win - not that he deserves to - he's been below average at best - but Romney has been able to generate excitement for the anti-Obama side

Mitt COULD win but the math is against him

that said, the economy is on the precipice - if it worsens and it might, lots of current Obama electoral wins can go away

for example latest Michigan poll is tied

 

[Benvolio]

Realclearpolitics.com will give you the most recent 5 or 6 polls in each state and an average of those. At this time, recent polls have gone for Romney in OH 18 electoral votes, FL 29, NC 11. And -- drum roll--Michigan 10. YES, the most recent in MI. These total 68 +206= 274
BINGO! There are other ways it can happen but these are clearly in play now. OH, FL, and NC are no surprise, but the poll in Michigan should keep Dems awake at night.

 

[Benvolio]

Oops, NC eas included in the 206, so he needs to pick up 6 fromNH, CO, VA, or NV.

 

[scream4ever]

Wow Jay Queer, so you admit that the Citizen's United ruling give Republicans a clear advantage and help them control elections?

 

[Benvolio]

Wow Jay Queer, so you admit that the Citizen's United ruling give Republicans a clear advantage and help them control elections?

It certainly does not equal the advantage the liberals have by controlling the liberal media, which again involves big corporate moneyromoting liberal propaganda presented as news.

 

[Rolyo85]

"The liberal media" makes me lol every time I read this description. Or as I like to call it, "the actual media".

 

[chance1]

"The liberal media" makes me lol every time I read this description. Or as I like to call it, "the actual media".

well it is both

 

[chrisrobin]

Mr. Chairman, I predict that the candidate that receives 270 electoral votes on Nov. 5 will win the presidency.

Don't take this personally fellow JUBers, but everything else is verbal masturbation. Get real. There's more than four months left of the worst campaign in the history of the Union.

P.S. Nazi death camps are going to have very little effect on the election outcome.