Who will win Presidential election 2012?

[chance1]

^ don't forget the Poles

I mean polls

 

[LuvFindsAndyHardy]

Mr. Chairman, I predict that the candidate that receives 270 electoral votes on Nov. 5 will win the presidency.

Don't take this personally fellow JUBers, but everything else is verbal masturbation. Get real. There's more than four months left of the worst campaign in the history of the Union.

You know, I started a post in a similar vein this afternoon and then I abandoned it without submitting. All we're doing is expressing our wishes masquerading as likely outcomes on both sides of the political fence. It's not like we're going to CONVINCE each other!

 

[Lostlover]

According to Real Clear Politics' Poll of Polls and electoral maps, President Obama is well ahead.

 

[Benvolio]

According to Real Clear Politics' Poll of Polls and electoral maps, President Obama is well ahead.

True, but see my posts 17 and 18 below. The recent poll in spring states are starting to turn. Those are the states to watch.

 

[chance1]

Are starting to turn? I guess republicans are incredibly wishful thinking.

trends are important

things are not static

EVERYONE (almost) knows that

 

[maxpowr9]

I think the important distinction is that many Republicans are not "pro-Romney" but "anti-Obama". It's why Romney can get away with not talking about any important issues such as economic policy or foreign affairs.

 

[chance1]

I think the important distinction is that many Republicans are not "pro-Romney" but "anti-Obama". It's why Romney can get away with not talking about any important issues such as economic policy or foreign affairs.

it's so true

seems right now romney gaffes (we need less teachers, firemen, cops) are immediately forgotten

the President gets the best and the worst of it and with the latest news for him (wisconsin, private sector good comment, may jobs report, romney out fundraising him, etc)

romney becomes irrelevant

which is sorta good for him with the focus on negative obama news

 

[CowboyBob]

President Obama will win the election. The illegal voter suppression brought on by the newly elected tea party republican governors won't succeed. The billions of dollars poured into the republican candidate war chests by the Koch brothers will be money flushed down the toilet.

 

[palbert]

I will vote for Obama but I question that it matters because the country is so fractured.

 

[chance1]

^I'm very displeased with Obama, but the alternative is unthinkable.

The reason for my displeasure is that he wasted two full years trying to "compromise" with the Republicans, none of whom had one scintilla of intent of compromising with him. Indeed, Mitch McConnell made it very clear from the outset that the only thing that mattered to them was making Obama a "one-term President".

Obama was a rank amateur who got a big head over the adulation given him by his followers. He knew he was too inexperienced, yet ran anyway.

So, No: I'm not an Obama fan at all.

But still—the alternative is far worse.

bolded for truth

Hillary (and Bill) kick themselves every day I have NO doubt

 

[maxpowr9]

Reckon I was a Hillary support back in 2008, lay this stupidity to rest. It is not 2008 anymore and we are discussing the options presented in front of us.

 

[Stardreamer]

I would agree with Johann's sentiments on Obama's experience going into the Presidency and his performance. On the other paw, he at least tried to reach across the aisle while the Republicans under the influence of the Tea Party movement, have been largely a road block to dealing with the issues. So going into the race, I'm inclined to give Obama some consideration and he is ahead of Romney in my consideration unless Romney can show me some independence of the far right and some plans for the economy with some real meat on them.

 

[genthree]

America has become much more appealing to the rest of the World under Obama - not that Americans would either know or care.
Just encourage everyone to vote, I think the UN should monitor the election because democracy is under pressure in America.

 

[Stardreamer]

what has that gotten us?

Mostly weakened ties with our traditional allies

 

[Rolyo85]

what has that gotten us?

A chance to not get extinct within a few generations?

 

[CoolBlue71]

Is This the Most Boring Election Ever?

By Matt Taibbi
Is This the Most Boring Election Ever? | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone | May 7, 2012

This year? It's been eerily quiet. The apathy factor in American presidential politics has seemingly never been higher.

As if to combat this, we're getting stories now about how this election is closer than you'd think, how Obama is in for a "tight race" or a "fierce fight" with Romney, and how the Republican challenger is "closing in" to a "statistical dead heat."

…

The people who work for the wire services and the news networks are physically incapable of writing sentences like, "This election is even more over than the Knicks-Heat series." They are required, if not by law then by neurological reflex, to describe every presidential campaign as "fierce" and "drawn-out" and "hotly-contested."

But this campaign, relatively speaking, will not be fierce or hotly contested. Instead it'll be disappointing, embarrassing, and over very quickly, like a hand job in a Bangkok bathhouse. And everybody knows it. It's just impossible to take Mitt Romney seriously as a presidential candidate.

 

[CoolBlue71]

From June 2008:

http://www.justusboys.com/forum/f26/15-states-watch-us-presidential-election-218465/


^ Pretty different from the current June 2012.

 

[chance1]

Is This the Most Boring Election Ever?

By Matt Taibbi
Is This the Most Boring Election Ever? | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone | May 7, 2012

Taibbi I've seen a few times on Bill Maher - "smug" doesn't even begin to describe the extent of his large head-ed-ness

that said ,,,,,,,,,,, he can turn a phrase

for those who don't read this here's a couple of pearls

1 - this election will not be hotly contested rather quickly over like a "hand job in a Bangkok bathhouse"
2 - Romney is like Kerry - Kerry was NEVER going to win - too boring
3 - Obama v Romney is the "worst reality show since Tila Tequila" with terrible characters, no suspense
4 - where's sarah palin when you need her
5 - Joe Biden is the best character in the series
6 - Romney is not insane, which is a tremendous insult to a Republican politician

read it gents

very entertaining

thanks cool

 

[JayHawk]

Mostly weakened ties with our traditional allies

Not from my perspective. When is the last time a sitting US President got Europe to involve itself in a war torn unstable portion of the world WITHOUT a gigantic terroristic wake up call to sound the drum?

Yeah that would be Clinton in Kosovo.

Do you think they would follow Bush into Libya? How about "Bomb, bomb ,bomb Iran" McCain? Not two smoldering chances in hell.

I wonder what American leader crippled the Iranian nuclear weapons capability without firing a single shot??

No, please take it from a guy who spends his time in other parts of the world for a living (through the entire Bush years and into the first three years of Obama); I can tell you our Allies confidence is off the charts in comparison to the Bush years.

doesn't seem like it... Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs are full speed ahead.

And they would be under a Republican President OR we would be in a war in the middle east. I seem to look back at my IOC reports and find that Korea took off in it's nuclear aspirations under first Clinton then Bush not Obama.

Wait when was it they launched them first tests of the intercontinental ballistic missiles? Oh damn that was Bush tooo... Fuck can't any of this be Obama's fault.

I will keep looking.

From June 2008:


http://www.justusboys.com/forum/f26/15-states-watch-us-presidential-election-218465/




^ Pretty different from the current June 2012.

That post pretty much bottoms lines the best opinion in this thread. McCain was leading Obama at the end of the summer and had he not picked a fucking lunatic AND the economy had held out for about 6 more weeks then we would be calling it McCain's giant fuck up instead of Obama's ineptitude.
\
\
This will be decided towards the last two months and a shit ton of nasty ads are coming that will make what we have seen in the past 30 years look like preschool.

Still in the end:

Obama.

Y?

He will still look like the adult on the playground when it is over.

Just like in 2008.

Chance that last flow was for you sweets... Cheers.

 

[JayHawk]

Libya was essentially a European problem that Europe got the US involved with. Sarkozy was the one leading that charge with the hopes that it would help his reelection.

Right but we could have just as easily denied him that to hold out for a tangible benefit to the US. Don't forget that Obama's greatest choice so far as President was to eliminate his biggest opposition while at the same time employing the clout of a Ex President on his foreign Policy. He chose Hillary Clinton and I think it is working wonders. There is the whispered deal with Russia over missile defense that will ensure their help to reign in Syria. There is the perception that we are casting Israel out so we can allow them to trash the Iranian Nuclear program militarily and then use all of our might to prevent an open retaliation. How many REAL squeaks have you heard out of North Korea?

From the things I read see and do I think it is working beautifully.

I didn't say anything about GWB or the Republican party at large... I just think that Obama's perceived popularity abroad is a wash. it's not a bad thing, but it's not really doing anything tangible for the US. it's not as if he was able to use his approval rating in France to get the country to commit more troops to his war in Afghanistan.

Ok I didn't state that you did BUT there are only two real alternatives. SO if you are to judge one you have to consider the alternative. To not do so is just being ignorant to the entire story.

I predict something will happen over the next four months on a international stage that will cause Romney to reflect the hawkish nature of his handlers. The independents will then wonder back into the Obama camp because this country is still way too war weary.