15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think either way, we're looking at a whole new political map this fall. I know some people questioned my including North Dakota on my list, but I really do think it is indicative of where we are going politically, along with the other 14 states. I think the says of Florida and Ohio deciding the election alone are behind us.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think either way, we're looking at a whole new political map this fall. I know some people questioned my including North Dakota on my list, but I really do think it is indicative of where we are going politically, along with the other 14 states. I think the says of Florida and Ohio deciding the election alone are behind us.

I would be surprised if more than 5-6 states flipped colors in November. Of the big states, only OH and MI might change colors (maybe PA if Obama has more preacher or "clinging"-type gaffes). Of the mid-size states, only VA and WI and maybe MO could flip. Then, of the small states, NM, NV, CO, IA and NH could flip from their 2004 color. I think these are the 11 states that could potentially change colors and 1/2 of them will in fact do so. The fun part is which of the 11 flip?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New Polling in Nevada, Still Tied in Virginia

It’s been barely a week since my last look at my 15 states to watch, but we have some much needed new polling in Nevada, so I thought I would post a brief follow-up. My goal is to not update this weekly; more like monthly, unless we can replace some old numbers in some old polls. Since we haven’t had any good polling in Nevada for about 2 months, I thought this would qualify – plus we have some new numbers in Virginia.

Nevada – 5 EV
Mason-Dixon , 6/9-11, Obama 42%, McCain 44%

The new numbers just reinforce what we already suspected, that Nevada is up for grabs. Obama has a huge lead with voters 18 to 34 years of age. Obama and McCain are tied with voters 35 to 49 years of age. McCain holds a huge lead with voters over the age of 50.


Obama wins the Hispanic vote 2 to 1. Obama was stronger with women, McCain was stronger with men. Clark County, home of Las Vegas, is home to 70% of the state’s population, and is the democratic base of the state. Obama holds a 7 point lead there. McCain has close to a 3 to 1 lead in the rural counties.


McCain has an 11 point lead, statewide, among independents, but 25% of independents still have not made their choice between the 2 candidates.
So clearly this is a toss-up state. Obama’s main job should be to shore up support in Las Vegas. McCain comes in to this contest with a huge lead in the rural counties, so the real battle appears to be the independents in Las Vegas. If Obama can close the gap in one or two places outside Las Vegas, such as Reno or Carson City, then the Las Vegas Independents won’t be as crucial. If McCain see’s the Las Vegas independents breaking more for him, then he will win Nevada. The fact that Nevada is finally in play, indicates a changing demographic in the west. Advantage: Toss-Up


Virginia – 13 EV
Rasmussen, 6/16, Obama 45%, McCain 44%


The new numbers confirm what we already knew. Virginia is up for grabs for the first time in 40 years. McCain’s lead with men seems to be slipping. Both candidates are tied with independents. Obama seems to be getting a slight, but insignificant, bump from clinching the nomination. 80% of liberals favor Obama, while 70% of conservatives favor McCain. Obama wins moderates with 56% to McCain’s 30%.


While previous polls have indicated Obama with a larger lead, Rasmussen has consistently indicated the race is much closer. I’m going to reclassify this state as a toss-up, rather than an Obama advantage. Still, anything other than a safe bet for McCain remains an Obama advantage. Given the fact that a year ago no one expected Virginia to be in play, even classifying this as a toss-up is still a loss for McCain. Advantage: Toss-up

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snapcat, a couple of more fresh,new polls amongst your swing states that you might want to dig deeper on are:

OHIO -- Obama +11 -- PPP polling -- biggest lead that I've seen for Obama in the Buckeye state

MINNESOTA Obama +1 -- SurveyUSA -- smallest lead that I've seen for Obama in the Gopher State

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +4 -- Civitas/TeleOpinion -- pretty consistent with other polls from the Tarheel state.

But, hey, how's this for consistency, there are 4 new national polls and Obama leads by +4 in all four polls (that is some rare consistency, not likely to be duplicated).

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Another interesting poll is the Susa from Kentucky, which has McCain's lead here reduced from 36 to 12 points. I don't think that Obama can win in Kentucky, but if he's only down by 12 points here, just imagine how this will play out in states he is competitive in.

I think Minnesota is a safe bet for Obama, unless McCain selects Pawlenty as his VP, and I don't think he will pick him.

I don't think the polling in North Carolina is accurately reflecting the potential for a massive turnout of voters. In fact, I don't know if any poll could measure that. I don't even think most of the pollsters would even know who these potential voters are to even poll them.

I think that the polls in any of the states where we could see incredible african-american turnout will be under-reporting Obama's potential, particularly in states like Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi.

I think we're ooking at the potential for a new paradigm that has yet to be measured.

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

To paraphrase George Will, a poll is only as accurate as its turnout assumptions. I think you're right, snapcat, about a new paradigm, and in my view most of these polls should have at least twice the margin of error than they do.

Sammie, are those your favorite Rassmussen polls? That Minnesota poll is troubling. Anyway, I think I'll follow your lead and refer to states only by their nicknames, and hopefully stump people with some of the more obscure ones.

 

[trapperm]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I am wondering if Wisconsin should be added to this list, I am not certain it will be blue this next time around. Although, I have not seen any polls, just listening to people talk.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought his opponents in the primaries always said Obama couldn't win among women and latinos?

I think that was actually one of the other major contenders for the democratic nomination.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I thought his opponents in the primaries always said Obama couldn't win among women and latinos?

McCain's target among Latinos is 40%. We shall see; Nevada is but one state. The impression is that Obama isn't as strong overall as MOST other Dems among those groups.

New polling data from key battleground states out today:

WISCONSIN -- Obama +9 -- PPP Polling -- a nice lead for Obama in the Badger state.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +2 -- SurveyUSA -- small fluctuations back and forth continue to persist in Old Dominion.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +12 -- Quinnipiac -- perhaps the biggest lead yet I've seen for Obama in the Keystone state.

OHIO -- Obama +6 -- Quinnipiac -- Obama starting to show some growth in the hugely significant Buckeye state.

FLORIDA -- Obama +4 -- Quinnipiac -- first lead I've ever seen for Obama in the Sunshine state.

I can't help but wonder if Hillary's endorsement is helping some in PA/OH/FL, although I'm sure the Hillary haters will never ever give her any credit. These 3 states are all Hillary Country....just a thought, no evidence that points directly to this.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polling data from key battleground states out today:

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +12 -- Quinnipiac -- perhaps the biggest lead yet I've seen for Obama in the Keystone state.

OHIO -- Obama +6 -- Quinnipiac -- Obama starting to show some growth in the hugely significant Buckeye state.

FLORIDA -- Obama +4 -- Quinnipiac -- first lead I've ever seen for Obama in the Sunshine state.

I can't help but wonder if Hillary's endorsement is helping some in PA/OH/FL, although I'm sure the Hillary haters will never ever give her any credit. These 3 states are all Hillary Country....just a thought, no evidence that points directly to this.

Sammie I'm not a big believer in the value of endorsements so yeah I'm not likely to give her much credit. I'm more likely to believe that her contention that he couldn't win white working class votes was overstated from the start and that the dems are staying with their party because of the issues.

The real story continues to be the ability of Obama to raise money. (I read that he's expected to raise $100 million this month alone) and it explains how he can compete in some states which other democrats in the past, regardless of their chances, could not afford to do.

Its likely to force Mccain to use his limited resources in places he'd hoped to take for granted.

The story of this election may very well be small donations elbowing out the large donations for domination of the political world which will be good news for us all.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie I'm not a big believer in the value of endorsements so yeah I'm not likely to give her much credit.
The real story continues to be the ability of Obama to raise money.

So, why does Obama even bother to court her endorsement and ongoing support if she has no sway over her 18 million voters?

In the meantime, Obama's fund raising will be the big story when we look back on this election...I agree.

In the meantime, hopefully Snapcat won't mind if I share new polling data from two states that we don't hear from very often.

ALASKA -- McCain +4 -- Rasmussen -- The GOP must be stunned at the narrow margin in the Last Frontier.

MAINE -- Obama +22 -- Rasmussen -- Blow out in a big kind of way from Bar Harbor to Ogunquit in the Pine Tree State

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, why does Obama even bother to court her endorsement and ongoing support if she has no sway over her 18 million voters?

I don't doubt she can throw some votes his way but I question her ability to throw entire states his way.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There are actually some pundits who believe Alaska is in play this year. Sen. Ted Stevens is in a tight battle for retain his senate seat, and some have put forth that could put Alaska in play. I'm not so sure that is so, but the fact that McCain only has a 4 point lead in Alaska is nothing short of stunning.

If this is as good as McCain can do in Alaska, then McCain is toast. Of course we have a long summer before us ...

 

[Zingerific]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, why does Obama even bother to court her endorsement and ongoing support if she has no sway over her 18 million voters?

I don't doubt she can throw some votes his way but I question her ability to throw entire states his way.

I don't think people will vote for Obama because Clinton tells them to; however, her lack of support could cause people to stay home or gravitate to McCain. In any event, if Clinton doesn't wholeheartedly support the Democratic ticket in November, she's going to have some explaining to do.

Alaska is surprising, but it's not hard to see why McCain's popularity is suffering there. It seems to me that Alaska Republicans tend to belong to the libertarian wing of the party, and libertarians have been peeling away from the GOP all during the Bush presidency; they don't like Bush's spending (like the prescription drug bill), they don't like Bush's imperial foreign policy, and they hate the Patriot Act, the suspension of Habeas Corpus, and other restrictions on civil liberties. Is anyone from Alaska out there who can confirm/dispute my suspicions?

A pal of mine whose leans libertarian recently told me, "well, both parties are going to tax like New Dealers and spend like drunken sailors, so I might as well vote for the guy who believes in evolution."

The Maine poll leads me to believe that Obama might have a chance in New Hampshire. New England should be solid Obama territory, but McCain has a personal relationship with NH (which, I believe, is the most conservative of the New England states anyway).

I'm anxious to see some polls from the Land of Enchantment. If Obama is doing well there, I think that pretty much takes Richardson off the table (if he's still on the table at all these days).

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polll data for 2 of the biggest battleground states:

OHIO -- McCain +1 -- Rasmussen -- in a matter of a few days we've seen the Buckeye State go from Obama up from 6 to 11 points and now McCain up. I suspect the pendulum will swing quite a bit here before November when, potentially, the "Modern Mother of Presidents" determines the outcome of the election (8 presidents were from Ohio).

FLORIDA -- McCain +8 -- Rasmussen -- for now, order is returned to the polls of the Sunshine State.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I also think Obama will peal away some of the evangelical vote. If you disregard the issues - and some voters will - Obama sounds like he has religion. McCain doesn't. And Obama doesn't need to win very many of the evangelicals to be elected president.

That's an interesting possibility. I wouldn't have given it any credence at all, except that two weeks ago I heard that Obama's book is being passed around at the church my sister attends in semi-rural Oregon, and spoken favorably of. I would never have thought that a "non-denominational" (usually means basically Baptist, conservative, and a bit eccentric) church would be good ground for Obama to even get a foot in, but apparently I was wrong.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some here have spoken of "a new paradigm". I'm not willing to call anything a new paradigm until and unless one of the two major parties collapses and something new and vibrant emerges to fill the gap -- like, the Ron Paul Republicans and the Libertarians and Constitutionalists join to form the "Liberty Party", and pull a lot of libertarian-minded Democrats and independents along.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More fresh poll numbers from battleground states:

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Obama +12 -- ARG Polling -- Obama must have sneaked back into Concord or Keene or Portsmouth and started weeping like Hillary because he has now moved into a comfortable lead in the Granite state.

FLORIDA -- Obama +5 -- ARG Polling -- you can never have enough polls from the Sunshine state, huh? This one contradicts the other one from the same day, but a different service. An election contradiction in Florida...hmmm, think we've heard that before.

COLORADO -- Obama +2 -- Rasmussen -- released just one hour ago; The Centennial State will be quite the wildcard in '08 I suspect.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some here have spoken of "a new paradigm". I'm not willing to call anything a new paradigm until and unless one of the two major parties collapses and something new and vibrant emerges to fill the gap -- like, the Ron Paul Republicans and the Libertarians and Constitutionalists join to form the "Liberty Party", and pull a lot of libertarian-minded Democrats and independents along.

No doubt about it. At best this will be change with a small c.

Can it be any other way with a major party candidate?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I noticed that Obama is running the first campaign ads of the young general election season in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Of my 15 original states to watch, only Minnesota and South Carolina didn't make the list. In retrospect, I wish I had included Montana, rather than Minnesota, on my list. But all in all I'd say I almost hit a bullseye. LOL!