15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

About Florida: There's still time, Sammie13; there's still time.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Prediction: Next Rasmussen Reports poll will show McCain winning in Ohio. (As predictable as rain…and Charlie Brown uttering, "Good grief!")

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And what people don't realize about Michigan is that Granholm problems are due to the 12 years of run down from John Engler. This guy was a sleeze bag. The repubs are trying to shift the blame to Granholm. Not sure how successful they've been. I left the state after undergrad and only go back for 3 days around Xmas time. From time to time I do read up on what's going on.

I do agree that that dumb as mayor may have hurt the chances of Oakland county splitting or going repub. I cannot really stand Kwamme. I hope he never finds a job again.

I'm in Michigan. If people are pissed with a Democratic governor, they can make 2010 a year to switch the party. Gov. Jennifer Granholm, first elected in 2002, is in her second term, and Mich. has now capped the limit to two terms. (Formerly the state's attorney general, and now Michigan's first female governor, the Canadian born Granholm's predecessor is John Engler. He was one of the Bob Dole running mate considerations from 1996. Engler, who served three terms, was first elected in 1990.)

Michigan is dealing with one of the hardest-hit housing markets in the U.S. And the unemployment here is one of the nation's worst. This state won't be in the mood to emrbrace for the White House the same political party messing us up.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The mother lode of polls, so I'm banging 'em out without comment. Lots to disgest here:

FLORIDA -- McCain +8 -- InsiderAdvantage

WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +5 -- Blankenship

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +3 -- Garin Hart
NORTH CAROLINA -- McCAin +3 -- Civitas
NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +17 -- Research 2000

MICHIGAN -- McCain +1 -- InsiderAdvantage
MICHIGAN -- Obama +5 -- Rasmussen

OHIO -- McCain +1 -- InsiderAdvantage
OHIO -- McCain +4 -- Strategic Vision

COLORADO -- Obama +3 -- InsiderAdvantage
COLORADO -- Obama +1 -- Publc Policy Polling

GEORGIA -- McCain +13 --Strategic Vision
GEORGIA -- McCain +18 -- InsiderAdvantage

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +18 -- Research 2000

MAINE -- Obama +14 -- Research 2000

WYOMING -- McCain +19 --Rasmussen

IDAHO -- McCain +39 -- Rasmussen

NEVADA -- McCain +1 -- InsiderAdvantage

Well, we've got McCain up all over the place. A second NC poll showing a blowout but 4 or 5 polls showing NC as still tight. West Virginia is tighter than one would have expected. Now, we can see why Obama is closing up shop in GA.

 

[jjmc]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm in Michigan. If people are pissed with a Democratic governor, they can make 2010 a year to switch the party. Gov. Jennifer Granholm, first elected in 2002, is in her second term, and Mich. has now capped the limit to two terms. (Formerly the state's attorney general, and now Michigan's first female governor, the Canadian born Granholm's predecessor is John Engler. He was one of the Bob Dole running mate considerations from 1996. Engler, who served three terms, was first elected in 1990.)

Michigan is dealing with one of the hardest-hit housing markets in the U.S. And the unemployment here is one of the nation's worst. This state won't be in the mood to emrbrace for the White House the same political party messing us up.

Yeah, but a lot of what Granholm is having to deal with the effects of Engler and people really don't understand the significance of a lot of his decisions. I live in Michigan until 4 years when I left for grad school... I remember Engler got upset that the mayor of Detroit salary was higher than his governor salary. so he increased his salary by nearly 15 percent and signed a measure to increase the legislature's salary by a nice percentage too. Two years later, most state agencies were force to implement a hiring freeze. Before going off to grad school, I spent two years working for the MDOT. I remember a core group of big conservatives going off about how shitty of a job engler had done in his last term. He started off as a good governor, but she sure didnt REMAIN fiscally conservative and put MI in a lot of the financial constratints.

Granholm isn't really helping the situation, but in all honesty, I dont know what could help Michigan. The steal industry went south after NAFTA and the Auto industry is collapsing. Michigan is having an extremely tough time attracting industry. It built itself up on factories and with American shifting away from that, it's left with nothing. And none of Michigan's big cities (mainly Detroit) can compete with Chicago.

...

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Many of the new polls above are coming from InsiderAdvantage. One thing the polls showed that might surprise some is that young voters are now divided among McCain and Obama. It was the evaporation of youth in the GA polls that put Obama slightly behind where even Kerry was in 2004. The thought was that young voters are most impacted by entertainment and all of the Palin images of late, according to Matt Towery, head of IA polling. He also noted, of which I concur 100%:

This takes me back to what I wrote in the past and continue to believe today: Hillary Clinton, for all of her alleged negatives, could have delivered Barack Obama the kind of "superstar" ticket he needed in order to win the presidency. But Caroline Kennedy and the East Coast Democratic Establishment, once again, could not see past their insular worldview that New England is representative of America as a whole. From Dukakis to Kerry to Biden, the Democratic Party continues to go back to the same throwback region of America to find its top standard bearers.

Now Obama is coming to learn just how bad his judgment may well have been in allowing the likes of Caroline Kennedy, who has never held an elected office or run for anything, to manage his vice-presidential nomination selection process.

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/September 2008/9-12-08/Towery91219642.php

Repub ex-Congressman and pain in the ass Newt Gingrich also said that the Hillary decision was his undoing:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Barack Obama gave his Republican opponent a leg up in the race for the White House by not selecting Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.


"She would have unified the party in one evening," Gingrich said Wednesday. "And they would have been almost unbeatable."

He mentioned that McCain would have never added Palin if Hillary had been on Obama's ticket. He also added:

"If you are the candidate of bold, new change you can count on, you don't pick a 35-year veteran senator who is a total insider," Gingrich said.

"This is worse than a glass ceiling, it is like a glass roof. It makes no sense at all."

The Republican cited arrogance for what he said were errors in Obama's bid for presidency.

"I have the greatest respect for his ability as a Freshmen member of the Senate to defeat the most powerful Democrat in the country and to win the nomination," Gingrich said. "But I think the success of all that kind of went to their heads."

This comes from Gingrich's hometown newspaper, which you can see here:
http://www.mdjonline.com/content/index/showcontentitem/area/1/section/15/item/118509.html

 

[JOUPER]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NJ and WA are now "leaning" Obama,last week they were both solid for Obama!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NJ and WA are now "leaning" Obama,last week they were both solid for Obama!

That's because Obama's lead was down to +6 in New Jersey and +4 in Washington. Hence, they've moved them from 'solid blue' to 'light blue'.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, it's starting to get lonely...feel like I'm talking to myself around here. Where's the feedback...where's the love?

One new morning poll for you....

WASHINGTON -- Obama +2 -- Rasmussen -- The Evergreen State had dropped to Obama +4 a few days ago, so clearly with this poll, the Dems are in some trouble here. Obama support among Dems in WA dropped from 89 to 83%, but his margin among independent voters was the story...previouly, Obama lead this group by +12, but now McCain leads at +5.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sorry, Sammie! The best I've been able to manage with my workload at the moment is some one-liners here and there.

In short, I think Obama is in a better position than McCain to win, but not on the position that I had envisioned.

I think there is fair evidence that the 50 State Strategy of Howard Dean may not be running on all cylinders, as once hoped.

Briefly, I am amazed that McCain hasn't wrapped up Nevada yet. Colorado & New Mexico offer the best hope for Dean's 50 State Strategy working. I'm amazed that McCain hasn't wrapped up Montana. I'm amazed that Obama hasn't wrapped up Michigan. Ohio continues to perplex me. No idea what's going on there. And my hope for Virginia wanes with each new poll.

So, in a nutshell, that's where I am. And mark me down as now wishing Obama had picked Hillary.

I still wonder what would have happened if the Rev Wright scandal had broken in January, rather than the spring.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey Sammie Mrs. Clinton has lived on the east coast for the last 15 yrs and is the senator from New York which I believe is located on the east coast.

Since you agree 100% I'm just wondering how long one has to live on the east coast before one is considered a member of it.

If you think had Hillary obtained either spot on the ticket she would not be painted as a New York City liberal you haven't been paying attention.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I can't believe Washington has slipped the way it has.

Any figures on Oregon?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snapcat writes:

In short, I think Obama is in a better position than McCain to win, but not on the position that I had envisioned.

Yeah, the conventional wisdom seems to be that McCain has pulled ahead electorally and in the popular vote. It will be a nailbiter as I've said since February...but, I lean ever so slightly at to thinking Obama will pull this election off by one state. But, he absolutely must hold on to MI and PA for that scenario to play out. If polls start showing him losing in either one, then he's toast. I would feel more optimistic if he could snatch FL or OH...I'm not comfortable relying on those 3 western states in the mix.

I think there is fair evidence that the 50 State Strategy of Howard Dean may not be running on all cylinders, as once hoped.

No...I think the lack of passion amongst the electorate about Iraq these days kinda killed that off. Plus, having a conservative on the GOP ticket re-infused his campaign. I know people like Naked Gent disagree, but I believe conservatism is far more prevalent in the US than liberalism, and with Palin they have one of their own without D.C. baggage.

Briefly, I am amazed that McCain hasn't wrapped up Nevada yet. Colorado & New Mexico offer the best hope for Dean's 50 State Strategy working. I'm amazed that McCain hasn't wrapped up Montana. I'm amazed that Obama hasn't wrapped up Michigan. Ohio continues to perplex me. No idea what's going on there. And my hope for Virginia wanes with each new poll.

The last Montana poll had McCain back up by +11, so I'm thinking it's about off the table now. Palin was made to order for the rural, outdoorsy states in the west and south. While my Sammie Super Six battlegrounds remain in place (Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia remain in place), I am contemplating making changes as the polls evolve. First, I had considered adding Florida, but that's not looking to likely now, but still possible. However, with Obama's descent, the states that are potentially entering my tactical battleground are all Obama states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington. These are states that were firm Obama and are now waffling enough that a couple of more polls might put them back into the picture.

So, in a nutshell, that's where I am. And mark me down as now wishing Obama had picked Hillary.

I still wonder what would have happened if the Rev Wright scandal had broken in January, rather than the spring

With Hills, the barrage of problems would not have even existed. Think of how many times I tried to explain to folks here, esp the Hillary haters, that many Hillary voters were soft Democrats who can easily switch teams. Their votes were not necessarily transferable to Obama. Obama in his arrogance felt like he didn't need her to procure those votes. McCain knew otherwise and seized the moment when Obama made that one blunder. Given Democrats long struggles to achieve the Oval Office, I think he has made one bad decision after another since the primaries ended. Clearly, he thought beating Hillary was winning the war, and McCain would be merely a skirmish.

Wright in January would have created an obvious result: Hillary as the nominee.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls:

OREGON -- Obama +7 -- Hoffman -- The Portland liberals are still nursing their lattes and have yet to hear about Palin. Folks in the Beaver State are already preparing to seal their ballot envelopes and mail in this election.

MISSOURI --McCain +5 -- Rasmussen -- McCain actually drops one point in the Show Me state compared to their last poll.

OHIO -- McCain +4 -- UCinc -- Another right at the margin of error lead for McCain in the Buckeye State.

How's that for a fast response, Kuli?

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey Sammie Mrs. Clinton has lived on the east coast for the last 15 yrs and is the senator from New York which I believe is located on the east coast.

Since you agree 100% I'm just wondering how long one has to live on the east coast before one is considered a member of it.

If you think had Hillary obtained either spot on the ticket she would not be painted as a New York City liberal you haven't been paying attention.

I think Hillary by every stretch of the imagination transcends the east coast establishment.

How many east coast Dems pols do you know who can come down south and talk with an accent like she does? Those 20 years in Arkansas were not lost on her. She still fits in just like Bubba.

With all due respect to the Northeast, people from that region perform horribly historically in elections down South. There is a big southern bias against northeastern liberals. I cringe everytime the Dems start taking a hard look at Yankee libs because I know 'game over'. N.G., ya'll just don't get us, and we don't get ya'll!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I believe in the fifty-state strategy in spite of these bad polls. Gore and Kerry both gave up states in early september that they ended up losing by less than 2% in november. If they had kept campaigning in those places, they would have won. I don't think Obama should give up on any state until the evening after election day, because that is when the votes are counted.

When different pollsters call NC for the GOP by anything from 3 to 17% on the same day, I don't believe the polls anymore. Some focus too much on regular phones, some on cellphones, some on email, some on, what else, live interviews in the street? How accurate is a poll based on 900 people out of 200 million people entitled to vote? Keep campaigning, from North Dakota to North Carolina. Besides, I think it makes you look more presidential and gives you more credibility if you actually address every corner of the nation, rather than only a few parts of OH, FL and MI. I'm sure people in OH, FL and MI will see the difference between candidates who campaign nationwide and those who try to get one more state than last time and screw everyone else.

But I guess I'm naive.

I don't really think there ever was a 50-state strategy for the general election. After the primaries, Obama had an 18 state strategy plus the always blue states of the Northeast and Far West. He has never been to Alabama or Tennessee or Oklahoma or Idaho, etc. And now, he's crossing off some of the 18. And I'm okay with it. They did a much better job than Gore and Kerry at efforting some new states. America is just a conservative country, and many regions were/are never going to elect a Kerry or an Obama. Not gonna happen!

B'back, you've hit the nail on the head in posts that you've made in the past. Dems win with southerners....at least since JFK in 1960. And still, it cannot be a southerner selling liberal ideology; they have to be authentic (unlike Edwards or Gore, for example). There really aren't enough pure liberals to elect a candidate in the US in a national election. A moderate has some potential...a southern moderate has the most. For Dems, it's just an uphill battle because they are somewhat outside the mainstream, so they must be more creative in finessing the Oval Office. But it's hard to sell that concept to the powers that be in the Dem party and the Dem primary voters. They are out of touch with the mainstream, but they obviously are very passionate, and think that it is the mainstream and not them that is out of touch...quite a logjam in ideology, huh? Dems have to be more flexible and 'back off' their agendas, give a little, and get in touch with the average Joe and Jane out there. Joe & Jane was once the backbone of the party, now they just look at the national party and say, 'who the hell are those people?'

One other note, B'back, on the poll swings in certain states like NC. Remember that most pollsters have very complicated equations and those raw poll-response numbers get put into the blender and shaken up quite a bit. Rasmussen, for example, is very respected and actually known to be very consistent. But, these equations look at trends in different voting segments (race, sex, county of resident, age, etc) then make a turnout projection. So, in a poll of 1000 people, you may have had 500 say Obama, and 500 say McCain. But, after it comes out of the blender, the headline might read Obama up by 6%. That said...some polling companies give you the straight up results of what responders answer. They don't even take into account party affilitation, whether you normally vote, age, race, etc. SurveyUSA, I'm certain, and Research2000, I somewhat certain, both give responses without regard to mathematical equations. Hence, the equation pollsters have NC relatively close, but the direct answer pollsters are showing a blowout. On the heels of a wild convention and the nom of Palin, it's no surprise that those pollsters who just report answers were more sensitive to momentum from McCain/Palin. Those other pollsters are more conservative, and mathematically account for ther reality that some of that enthusiasm not actually going to the voting booth on Nov 4. However, in research of historical polls, there is no consistent evidence that one methodology is more accurate from the other one election to the next.

Some pollsters are also paid by a political party, and might tend to juice up the numbers for the paying party if it's a media-reported poll. Research2000 and Strategic Vision are both often party-affiliated.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With Hills, the barrage of problems would not have even existed. Think of how many times I tried to explain to folks here, esp the Hillary haters, that many Hillary voters were soft Democrats who can easily switch teams. Their votes were not necessarily transferable to Obama.

Hillary would have had different problems Sammie no matter how much her acolytes wish to deny them. To give but one example had she been the nominee her healthcare program would have been portrayed (especially in the south and west) as big government forcing you to purchase health insurance with Washington bureaucrats or perhaps Hillary herself deciding if you could afford to buy it yourself or if she felt generous perhaps she would throw a subsidy your way.

You seem to forget how liberal the right really believes she is. They would constantly repeat the liberalism of her failed program from 93 and tell lies about her just as they are about Obama.

I think Hillary by every stretch of the imagination transcends the east coast establishment.

How many east coast Dems pols do you know who can come down south and talk with an accent like she does? Those 20 years in Arkansas were not lost on her. She still fits in just like Bubba.

With all due respect to the Northeast, people from that region perform horribly historically in elections down South. There is a big southern bias against northeastern liberals.

I posted here last yr that IMO no one from the northeast could be elected president and at the time that list included Mrs. Clinton, Mitt Romney and Rudy.

I stand by that statement. You can disagree if you want but I'm glad to have the facts on my side.

If she were the nominee today the only state I think she would have a shot at that Obama does not is Florida. Her husband running as an incumbent carried only 2 states in the deep south. I doubt she would even do that well.

And its not that I think liberalism is far more prevalent than conservatism rather I think we live at the conservative end of a liberal universe.

But if you think George Bush or John McCain are conservatives then you're buying the sizzle.

But in any case you surely don't believe Obama is currently getting beat on the issues do you?

The tactics republicans use to win work much better on you southerners than it does on those of us up north.

 

[NineOfClubs]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

OREGON -- Obama +7 -- Hoffman -- The Portland liberals are still nursing their lattes and have yet to hear about Palin. Folks in the Beaver State are already preparing to seal their ballot envelopes and mail in this election.

Sammie, you may be right about the lattes.

But you're jumping the gun on the ballot thing. Our election pamphlets won't arrive for a few more weeks, and the actual ballots come to us 2 or 3 weeks before the election....

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

had she been the nominee her healthcare program would have been portrayed (especially in the south and west) as big government forcing you to purchase health insurance with Washington bureaucrats or perhaps Hillary herself deciding if you could afford to buy it yourself or if she felt generous perhaps she would throw a subsidy your way.

You seem to forget how liberal the right really believes she is. They would constantly repeat the liberalism of her failed program from 93 and tell lies about her just as they are about Obama.

I disagree, naturally. Those who were big Hillary supporters had already accepted her healthcare plan. Otherwise, a lot has changed since '93, as healthcare costs have soared, unfortunately far more people who were opposed to govt intervention in '93 now support more govt involvement in healthcare. I am against Hillary or Obama getting involved in healthcare, but I agree that Repubs might have gone after it, but then again, they haven't attacked Obama too much on healthcare either; the reason, he (or Hills) is on the popular side of that argument in '08...not so sure scare tactics would work this time. It really doesn't matter what Obama or Hillary say, Repubs will call them liberal...the question is who can overcome that label? The intense primary actaully benefitted Hillary in that regard because she was able to move back to the center (again, it's about perception), leaving Obama to the left. Funny, I know many Repubs who miraculously have this newfounded respect for her. Suddenly, she is equated as a Kentucky/Tennessee/West Virginia Democrat (how very odd to say that).

I posted here last yr that IMO no one from the northeast could be elected president and at the time that list included Mrs. Clinton, Mitt Romney and Rudy.

So, why do you think a northeasterner can't be elected president? I'd be curious to know. Isn't Romney really a westerner and Hillary a midwestern southern transplant? I think there are regional biases no doubt, and I pretty much agree with you. And the NE takes alot of shots from much of the country. But, I think someday there will be another NE who can be in tune with most of the country (a Republican would be a big problem for Dems if he could make those blue states red in that region).

If she were the nominee today the only state I think she would have a shot at that Obama does not is Florida. Her husband running as an incumbent carried only 2 states in the deep south. I doubt she would even do that well.

Totally disagree. She would win Ohio. She would be far stronger in Florida, and probably win. She would win Arkansas. She would likely win West Virginia. She would easily win in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he has struggled. The only states that he would be more likely to score than her are Colorado and Virginia. She is popular in Tennessee and Kentucky, and with the right running mate could have seized that area OR Indiana with Bayh.

Bill Clinton won Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia twice. He won Georgia in '92 and Florida in '96; the GA loss in '92 was by less than 0.5%. He also won Missouri twice. I realize you're not defining some of these states as "deep", but nevertheless, those were alot of red states that went blue. And he disrupted the GOP organizationally and financially by making the South his playground. With the right candidate, today's south has more minorities and northern/midwestern transplants to make the south viable for the right kind of Democrat.

But in any case you surely don't believe Obama is currently getting beat on the issues do you?

The tactics republicans use to win work much better on you southerners than it does on those of us up north

Hey, we agree here. Obama is not getting beat on the issues (but neither did Gore or Kerry IMHO). If, by tactics, you mean God, Guns & Gays, then yeah the South gets derailed from examining the real issues, when the Bible or 2nd Amendment is brought into the debate.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Wright in January would have created an obvious result: Hillary as the nominee.

And ironically, the one thing that turned me off the most about her, would work out to be her best advantage now. There is no doubt in my mind that Hillary would have been fighting back with all of the passion in her heart. Miss Gurl would be slinging that mud back on McCain so fast his head would be spinning.

I don't really like that brand of politics, but you have to get elected first before any changes can be made.