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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

COLORADO -- Obama +1 -- Nat'l Journal
FLORIDA -- 1) TIE -- Nat'l Journal; 2) TIE -- ARG; 3) McCain +6 -- SurvUSA
GEORGIA -- McCain +16 -- SurveyUSA
ILLINOIS -- Obama +16 -- Univ of WI
INDIANA -- McCain +4 -- Univ of WI
IOWA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
MICHIGAN -- Obama +4 -- Univ of WI
MINNESOTA -- Obama +2 -- Univ of WI
NEBRASKA -- McCain +26 -- ARG
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- McCain +3 -- ARG
NEW MEXICO -- 1) Obama +7 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +8 -- SurveyUSA
OHIO -- 1) McCain +1 -- Nat'l Jour.; 2) Obama +1 -- Univ of WI
PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- Univ of WI
SOUTH CAROLINA --McCain +22 -- ARG
VIRGINIA -- McCain +7 -- Nat'l Journal
VERMONT -- Obama +24 -- Rasmussen
WISCONSIN -- Obama +1 -- Univ of WI VIRGINIA -- McCain +2 -- InsiderAdvantage
WASHINGTON -- Obama +5 -- Strategic Vision
GEORGIA -- McCain +8 -- InsiderAdvantage
GEORGIA -- McCain +11 -- Rasmussen
COLORADO -- Obama +10 -- insiderAdvantage
CONNECTICUT -- Obama +12 -- Rasmussen
NEW JERSEY -- Obama +13 -- Rasmussen
Click to expand...

Okay, I've merged polls that I posted from earlier today, and will add 2 more new ones:

OREGON -- Obama +10 -- Portland Tribune
GEORGIA -- McCain +21 -- Public Op. Strat. -- That's FOUR Peach State polls in one day...sort of like our weather...long periods of drought, but when it rains it pours. So, we have McCain in GA up by 8, 11, 16, and 21, which means McCain averages a 14 point lead.

Lots of numbers to crunch...I'd be interested in what catches eveyone's attention.

Note to Coolblue...you know some serious historical statistical trends. You oughta be in Vegas, baby;). I bet you know who won my precinct in 1912!
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat said:
Pollster now has Pennsylvania in the toss up states category!
Click to expand...

Give it a little time. After the Republican Party had its convention, polling bounces affected some states that were won the past four elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004) by Democrats. Pennsylvania will likely move back to "Barely Democratic" or whatever wording that effectively says "Advantage: Obama."
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
Note to Coolblue...you know some serious historical statistical trends. You oughta be in Vegas, baby;). I bet you know who won my precinct in 1912!
Click to expand...

In all seriousness, I've done some research to familiarize myself with some patterns. And it only helps to inform me … so that I can forsee what is liable to happen on Election Day. Even if others aren't interesed, I put it out here.

Thank you, Sammie13!
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of new morning polls from CNN, which show the same thing we saw in the Univ of Wisconsin, polls yesterday in Iowa and PA....this has to be alarming for Obama.

IOWA -- TIE -- CNN
PENNSYLVANIA -- TIE -- CNN
INDIANA -- McCain +2 -- CNN
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, the numbers from Indiana have to worry McCain, at least. I don't think he's advertising there.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

snapcat said:
Well, the numbers from Indiana have to worry McCain, at least. I don't think he's advertising there.
Click to expand...

I can only assume McCain thought Indiana was going to be a shoe-in.

Not sure what the Hell is going on in Iowa and Pennsylvania.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

future_boy said:
Why McCain has a huge lead in Georgia????Isn't Atlanta has a lot of African-American population in it???:confused::confused:
Click to expand...

Yes but the rest of the state is made up of a bunch of "guns and religion" rednecks lol.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

future_boy said:
Why McCain has a huge lead in Georgia????Isn't Atlanta has a lot of African-American population in it???:confused::confused:
Click to expand...

Ah, but there is so much more to Georgia than the smog and traffic of Atlanta.

Since you asked, the pollmeister has numbers (hmmm...what a surprise!): Georgia, now the 9th most populated state, has 9.3 million people; Atlanta has under 500, 000 citizens. Metro Atlanta, which includes some 28 of Georgia's 159 counties, has 5.2 million citizens (more than 50% of GA's population lives in metro Atlanta).

Atlanta's demographics are 52% Black, 33% White; also, 13% of Atlanta is supposedly gay (3rd highest in the US). However, within the state, GA is 67% White and 30% Black, which is the 4th among states in terms of % of population that is black. I have read that among registered voters, just shy of 40% in GA are black. In addition to Atlanta and certain suburbs, black populations are high in Middle, East Central, Southwestern, and the Low Country of GA.

Atlanta may be the state's largest city, but it is followed by Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, Macon, and Athens.

GA is 70% Protestant, and almost 30% Baptist. That is significant to know. Most white Georgians, some 70%+, typically vote Republican. It is very conservative culturally, and religion as well as racial attitudes have caused many whites to join the GOP; this tendency really started in the '80's in GA, but took hold for good in the late '90's. In GA, I can look at someone's skin color and predict their party affiliation correctly 80% of the time.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
COLORADO -- Obama +10 -- insiderAdvantage


That's a lot of polls, what do ya'll think?
Click to expand...

Now, that's a shocker. Pollmeister, how good is insiderAdvantage's track record and polling methods?

I think Palin is going to help McCain alot with the Christian Taliban in Colorado Springs.

Stuart Rothenberg has an article declaring the "Uncertainty State" the state to watch for an indicator about how the race will end. This passage was particularly intriguing:

One of the recent surveys, conducted on Sept. 11 by Insider Advantage, showed Obama up by 3 points. But the survey found McCain getting an unbelievable one-quarter of the African-American vote and Obama winning both men and women by an identical 49 percent to 46 percent margin.
Click to expand...

A quarter of AAs voting for McCain and NO gender gap for men or women? Maybe they're on a Rocky Mountain High?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/whats_the_top_electoral_colleg.html
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Must have new polls to ponder.....

ALABAMA -- McCain +30 -- SurveyUSA
ALASKA -- McCain +17 -- Research2000
INDIANA -- 1) McCain +2 -- Rasmussen; 2) McCain +3 -- ARG
IOWA -- Obama +11 -- SurveyUSA
KENTUCKY -- McCain +18 -- Research2000
MICHIGAN -- Obama +9 -- Marist
NEW JERSEY --Obama +4 -- Strategic Vision
NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +9 -- ARG
OHIO -- Obama +2 -- Marist
OKLAHOMA -- McCain +27 -- ARG
PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- Marist
WASHINGTON-- 1) Obama +5 -- Strat. Vision; 2) Obama +6 -- ARG

So, what do you see here that jumps out at you? It looks good for Obama overall. We continue to see the Indiana tightening. Michigan and Ohio trends continue to improve from the last 2 weeks. Today we have the first polls from IA and PA that aren't tied that we've seen in a while (although Survey USA often has bigger margins than other pollsters...I tend to put less weight on thier IA poll).
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some great reinforcement for Obama in MI and PA in those polls. Hope that trend continues.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

syntax70 said:
Now, that's a shocker. Pollmeister, how good is insiderAdvantage's track record and polling methods?

I think Palin is going to help McCain alot with the Christian Taliban in Colorado Springs.

Stuart Rothenberg has an article declaring the "Uncertainty State" the state to watch for an indicator about how the race will end. This passage was particularly intriguing:



A quarter of AAs voting for McCain and NO gender gap for men or women? Maybe they're on a Rocky Mountain High?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/whats_the_top_electoral_colleg.html
Click to expand...

In regards to that poll, Rothenberg was wrong. The gender gap was not identical 49-46 margins; Women favored Obama 52-39 and men 50-42 for Obama. So, there was a 5pt gap. He was correct about AA's supporting McCain at 26%. What I would like to know, and cannont find, is how many blacks in CO were polled. My guess is that it was a low number; if you only surveyed 20 black Coloradans and 5 supported McCain, well there's your 26%.

That CO poll from InsiderAdvantage had a margin of error at 4.3%...rather large...they polled 508 people. I'm confident that this poll is an outlier just like today's Iowa poll from SurveyUSA at +11 for Obama. It can happen; hence, it's best to consider several polls of a state, and throw out the one with the biggest margin.

InsiderAdvantage has perplexed me. They are Atlanta-based, and highly respected. Through the years, they've done a great job in GA...you'll recall how every presidential, senate , and governor race was razor thin here in the '90's and IA was highly accurate on all of them except the '02 races (recall, those mysterious Dekalb county electronic voting machine gremlins from this heavily Democratic county). However, IA has had interesting polls this year. They've rather consistently shown Obama outperfoming other polls in GA and NC. That makes them dubious, however, I.A. grasps those two states demographics and voting trends much better than other pollsters. So, maybe they're onto something...I'm just not sure.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Interesting report from a Sept. 18, 2008 Daily Kos…

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/17/23105/9380/773/602310


The Latino vote swings hard for Obama

"SUSA's latest has Obama up 52-44 in New Mexico, which is great in and of itself.
But I was struck even more by this line:

"Hispanics
"McCain 28
"Obama 69


"That is close to the numbers in yesterday's R2K/dKos daily tracking poll:

"Hispanics
"McCain 29
"Obama 67…"
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ALABAMA -- McCain +30 -- SurveyUSA
ALASKA -- McCain +17 -- Research2000
INDIANA -- 1) McCain +2 -- Rasmussen; 2) McCain +3 -- ARG
IOWA -- Obama +11 -- SurveyUSA
KENTUCKY -- McCain +18 -- Research2000
MICHIGAN -- Obama +9 -- Marist
NEW JERSEY --Obama +4 -- Strategic Vision
NORTH DAKOTA -- McCain +9 -- ARG
OHIO -- Obama +2 -- Marist
OKLAHOMA -- McCain +27 -- ARG
PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- Marist
WASHINGTON-- 1) Obama +5 -- Strat. Vision; 2) Obama +6 -- ARG


Those above posted earlier, and here are two more new polls:

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +6 -- Elon -- This is a very poor poll with a small sample, large nonresponders, and big margin of error.
MAINE -- Obama +4 -- Rasmussen -- Oops... Obama drops from a +13 lead in Ras. previous poll. Color The Pinetree State a light shade of blue.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't think Iowa is a good indicator of McCain's support. He barely even campaigned there, and pretty much wrote it off (as did Giulliani.)

Interestingly, Politico now has Colorado BLUE along with New Mexico. CNN has moved Wisconsin to Toss-Up. Most sources now indicate Missouri RED, as I earlier expected.

Obama's Western Strategy seems to be holding for the time being. Although I would feel better about it if we could get those numbers up in Montana.

I remain completely perplexed about Nevada. Reno may decide that whole state. Any polls on just Reno??? :)
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Kulindahr said:
???

What's going on in Maine???
Click to expand...

Maine is not going to be in play for McCain. Maine is solid Obama at the moment. McCain can never win over the New England states. Pennsylvania was solid Obama a few months ago, then it trended to "Leaning Obama" a month ago, now it's a toss up with Obama and McCain just 2 points from each other. I think Obama is going to lead Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 points by election day. Biden is really doing well with working class voters and women voters in the toss-up states.

Look at West Virginia. It was solid McCain in the start of the election, it trended to a "Leaning McCain" recently, now it's becoming a toss-up state with McCain only leading by 3 or 4 points ahead of Obama. If Obama can keep the Kerry states (which includes PA) and win CO, NV, NM, VA, OH, and MI, the election is over for McCain.
 
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