15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That seems a bit premature on their part, but I think they're just using the numbers from realclearpolitics. And in this instance, the numbers where there are no toss-up states. Virginia and NH should be toss ups, not in Obama's column... the polls are way too close to put these states in anyone's column.

I was questioning that, too, but Politico has shown itself to be fairly cautious in moving a state to one column or the other. Only recently they added New Mexico to Obama's column, and NM has trended blue for some time, now.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

You bet! It has happened no less than every single presidential election for as long as I can remember!

Admittedly, that's since the year 2000.

Gore and Kerry both had 270+ at this point? I hadn't thought so. . . but I could be wrong.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I remember in 2000 the projection from some was that Bush would win the popular vote but Gore the electoral college. Then it turned out to be the opposite.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New Polls .............

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College Morning Call 9/21-25: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

Iowa, Rasmussen Reports 9/25: Obama 51%, McCain 43%.

Oregon, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 9/22-24: Obama 53%, McCain 39%.

Montana, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 9/22-24: McCain 52%, Obama 39%.

Gallup Tracking: Obama 49, McCain 44.
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50, McCain 44.
Hotline/Financial Dynamics: Obama 48, McCain 43.


They all seem to agree with Obama's average of 49%, and McCain's average of 44%. A clear 5% advantage for Obama.



Nothing too terribly surprising here. The numbers from Montana are disappointing, but not altogether surprising. This will probably be the year that Montana and Colorado vote differently in the presidential election. I'm inclined to believe the numbers in Montana will tighten up a bit, but it's clear that Obama will not get an easy win here.



But, let's look at the bight side. Perhaps all of those early Obama lovers in Montana have all moved to Nevada and registered to vote there.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Obama is now at over 300 electoral votes on realclearpolitcs' no toss up state scenario.

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

On RCP, Obama is leading McCain in North Carolina by a slight edge with 46.8% to 46.5%. I expected this to happen after the presidential debate. McCain was leading North Carolina by 5 points a less than two weeks ago, now his numbers are crashing to the surface. A few days ago, McCain was still 1 point ahead of Obama. I believe Obama is going to open a 2 or 3 point lead before the VP debate.

Indiana is taking me by surprise as well. Obama is closing the gap in that state with just a 2.3 lead for McCain. McCain was leading Indiana by 6 points in the past. Since then, his numbers have gone down over the past week--a nice drop. Indiana is still going to be tough to get to a Leaning Obama but I suspect if Obama wins over a lot of independents in the following debates he can have a slight edge over McCain in Indiana.

By far this is good news for Obama the way he has been closing the gap in some of the toss-up states that was trending to McCain before the presidential debate. Even, the Leaning McCain states have become toss-ups and may lean to Obama after the next polls come by early in the week.

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Obama is now at over 300 electoral votes on realclearpolitcs' no toss up state scenario.

This is fabulous for Obama! If he keeps getting the Leaning McCain states that have now become toss-ups (Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Nevada) the electoral map could look similar to the 1992 election between Clinton and Bush. It may not be a 1980 Reaganesque victory in the electoral college, but I think Obama is going to win by a landslide regardless.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

(Back from my Vegas short weekend vacation and after having watched the debate on DVR)

This was supposed to be Senator McCain's strongest debate opportunity, and pretty much according to everyone ... it was a tie. McCain badly needed to be the clear-cut winner of this debate, and that did not transpire.

We have the next debate, being the VP debate on Thursday, which is only going to dig McCain even further even deeper into the rut he's already in. Palin will undoubtedly have many non-answers, and Biden is going to walk all over her on pretty much every topic.

So comparing what we're seeing now, with where the map is, and especially after Thursday's debate, which is only going to tilt the Battleground states even more, Obama has much to be happy for. As should the Democratic Party.

I was originally predicting a 273/265 victory for Obama, but at this point, I am now predicting a 301/237 victory for Obama ... with the following states being allotted to each candidate:

Obama:

Virginia
North Carolina (call me crazy, but I think it's going to happen, ICO and Marley)
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Colorado
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan



McCain:

Ohio
Florida
Nevada
Indiana
Missouri


It's nice to see that we don't have the same two states (Ohio and Florida) deciding the fate of the country anymore. Too bad for them.

I am also glad that women don't seem to be falling for the Palin trick, after all.

And on a side note, it is great to see more of the Clinton supporters letting go of their grudges and coming over, after all. I think most of them realize that game time is over and it's time to start getting down to business with the real enemy.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There has never been a case in which the winner of the election lost all three bellwethers: Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio. A combination of the three have been a part of all winning Republicans' or Democrats' Electoral College victories. So, in essence, this year's winner will be taking at least one of those three states with him. (I believe all three will agree…and back the winner.)

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There has never been a case in which the winner of the election lost all three bellwethers: Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio. A combination of the three have been a part of all winning Republicans' or Democrats' Electoral College victories. So, in essence, this year's winner will be taking at least one of those three states with him. (I believe all three will agree…and back the winner.)

But isn't that based more on superstition backed by coincidence, rather than any real demographic projections? Aggregated local polls are showing that Obama can easily win without those three states as long as he holds onto what may become the new "bellwether" areas for our kids' or grandkids' generation: VA, MN, CO etc.

The fact that the bellwethers you mention may no longer be bellwethers is precisely what's so fascinating about the times we live in: We are witnessing a possible sea change in demographics and issues (immigration, Katrina, "black flight", a youth vote that actually happens this time, Iraq fatigue, the bailout, etc) which the three traditional bellwethers have been more or less shielded from for various coincidental reasons. (MO, for example, is not quite seeing the same shift yet in its hispanic population that is starting to affect the rest of the midwest.)

What used to keep MO/NV/OH balanced/microcosmic may actually be shifting those states a hair to the right now that a new demographic of voters is starting to approach its tipping point. Friday's "Bracelet War" during the debate is a perfect example. McCain's "Make sure my son didn't die in vain" bracelet played straight to the romantic patriotism of MO/NV/OH, but Obama immediately smacked it down with his "Make sure nobody else's son dies in vain" bracelet, which played straight to a more pragmatic, war-weary VA/MN/CO crowd.

If superstition must prevail, I'll concede that OH might start to shift into the blue next month in response to the bailout/economy issues. But I'm more inclined to believe that we're at the end of a bellwether era - yet another historic aspect to Obama's candidacy.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

On RCP, Obama is leading McCain in North Carolina by a slight edge with 46.8% to 46.5%. I expected this to happen after the presidential debate. McCain was leading North Carolina by 5 points a less than two weeks ago, now his numbers are crashing to the surface. A few days ago, McCain was still 1 point ahead of Obama. I believe Obama is going to open a 2 or 3 point lead before the VP debate.

This is not the result of the debate. They haven't reported a North Carolina poll since the debate. The change in North Carolina's status there is because RCP dropped a poll from three weeks ago that had McCain ahead by 17 points. Thus, the RCP average became more realistic.

Indiana is taking me by surprise as well. Obama is closing the gap in that state with just a 2.3 lead for McCain. McCain was leading Indiana by 6 points in the past. Since then, his numbers have gone down over the past week--a nice drop. Indiana is still going to be tough to get to a Leaning Obama but I suspect if Obama wins over a lot of independents in the following debates he can have a slight edge over McCain in Indiana.

The most recent poll report from RCP was on Sept. 19--a Rasmussen poll taken Sept. 17-18. Their average for Indiana has not changed over the past week.[/quote]

By far this is good news for Obama the way he has been closing the gap in some of the toss-up states that was trending to McCain before the presidential debate. Even, the Leaning McCain states have become toss-ups and may lean to Obama after the next polls come by early in the week.[/quote]

Of the states for which RCP has reported a poll since the debate, the one with the closest spread is Iowa. Currently, RCP has Obama ahead in Iowa by 9.2. He was previously ahead by 9.4. But that does not reflect the results of the debate because it was a report of a poll taken the day before the debate.

The good news for Obama is that the national daily tracking polls have been trending in his favor since the debate.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I know you and I have been waiting to see what effect the debate might have had in the state polls. Well, the first one is in. It's a Morning Call Pennsylavnia poll that straddled the debate. In it, Obama is up 2 and McCain down 1 from Morning Calls previous poll for a net Obama gain of 3. It shows Obama +7 overall. Those numbers again for Pennsylvania:

Obama: 49
McCain: 42
Spread: Obama +7

P.S. New Survey USA poll in from Florida. Change from previous Survey USA: McCain -3, Obama +2. Net change: Obama +5. Overall: McCain +1. This poll was taken entirely after the debate.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls to digest ....

California, Survey USA 9/23-24: Obama 53%, McCain 43%.
California, Public Policy Institute of California 9/9-16: Obama 50%, McCain 40%.

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College Morning Call 9/24-28: Obama 49%, McCain 42%.

Tennessee, Mason Dixon 9/22-24: McCain 55%, Obama 39%.

Louisiana, Rasmussen Reports 9/25: McCain 55%, Obama 40%.

Kentucky, Mason Dixon 9/22-25: McCain 53%, Obama 41%.

Wyoming, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 9/22-24: McCain 57%, Obama 36%.

No real surprises here, and only one toss-up state in the bunch. Obama seems to be shoring up support in Pennsylvania. Without Pennsylvania in his column on election night, it will be a very tough path to the White House for mcCain.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NBC News has moved Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana into the toss-up column, along with Pennsylvania.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NBC News has moved Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana into the toss-up column, along with Pennsylvania.

Still not holding my breath on Florida or Indiana ...

but I think Obama will take Pennsylvania ... and am actually going out on a limb and saying he will take N. Carolina as well.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So tomorrow Obama will be in Reno, and McCain will be in . . . Des Moines?!!!!

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NBC News has moved Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana into the toss-up column, along with Pennsylvania.

At this point, I can still agree with that. Although PA is much less of a toss up than FL right now.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So tomorrow Obama will be in Reno, and McCain will be in . . . Des Moines?!!!!

You don't think McCain has a shot in Iowa??

You and the rest of the country. But maybe the McCain camp has something in mind that the rest of us hadn't thought about.

Or maybe Johnny Mac just wanted to see Iowa.

 

[justndav]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As someone who lives in Iowa, I will tell you why McCain is in Iowa. I dont like to say this but, Obama is taking this state for granted. We are getting bombarded with McCain ads almost every commercial break, but I can count on one hand how many Obama ads I have seen. Obama is seriously taking Iowa for granted and he is making a big mistake. Yes, McCain is against ethanol subsides which will not sit well with a lot of voters here but Obama needs to run more ads. I live in Davenport in the Eastern part of the state, so maybe its just our part of the state that is not getting Obama ad's, I dont know.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ I don't disagree with you, but do political ads really work?

There are plenty of idiots out there who only believe what the TV tells them.