Sammie13
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I would guess that B'back is right...it wouldn't make sense to discount those already having voted.
I had thought that perhaps this survey included Halloween sampling which makes polling less accurate due to most of the responders would be older people who would be the only folks home. However, the Mason Dixon/NBC poll was done on Oct 28/29. By the way, here is the Mason Dixon map:
http://media.lvrj.com/images/battlegroundbreakdown-lg.jpg
One difference in the M-D poll versus the Columbus Dispatch poll that I listed above where Obama leads by 6 points is that the M-D poll was done over 2 days and a little over 600 interviewees. The Dispatch poll had over 2100 responders and was done for a week starting on Oct 22. The postive is that the Dispatch has a larger sampling, the negative is that in today's politics, the early responders were questioned over a week ago which can be a life time.
Yesterday, I revised my electoral map (Midnight and I are fickle like that), and emailed to a friend, but did not post here. My count was Obama winning 364-174. Now, I'm back on the fence. Some of these states are so damn difficult as they continuously preside within the margin of error and there are so many polls that it is mind boggling. Last night, my tough calls were on NC, IN, and MO (I put Indiana in the McCain column, and the other two in the Obama column...note that my gut says McCain wins Missouri, but history and Coolblue act as if I'm spitting in the face of time honored history to prognosticate MO for anyone other than the election winner
, so who am I to screw with tradition? I was more confident in assigning Obama FL, OH and NV, but now I"m really uncertain about OH and, for that matter, FL, too.
The wildcards in this race are:
RACE -- most of these undecideds are likely heading McCain's way...these undecided agree with Obama, but can't vote for a black guy, so they are in decision-making flux. Of course, some will stay home, too, but if they can't hitch there horse to Obama by now, I'm guessing they go GOP.
CLOSERS --- Hillary outclosed Obama in the primaries, and McCain is a notorious strong closer (see FL and NH in the primaries). He was good on SNL, which helped with the geezer component, he is scaring people about taxes, which is always an ace in the cards for Repubs, and this morning, I saw my first GOP-sponsored ad on the Rev Wright and Obama...it was nasty, but probably effective in swing areas (gotta love GOP ads, there was our GOP Sen Saxby Shameless runnng an ad saying his Dem opponent was for child molestations).
YOUTH VOTE -- I never really buy into this, but I know Obama is counting on it. We've already seen poor young voter turnout in advance voting in NC and FL. So, how much does this tighten the race if younger voters just stay home and get drunk?
I would guess that B'back is right...it wouldn't make sense to discount those already having voted.
I had thought that perhaps this survey included Halloween sampling which makes polling less accurate due to most of the responders would be older people who would be the only folks home. However, the Mason Dixon/NBC poll was done on Oct 28/29. By the way, here is the Mason Dixon map:
http://media.lvrj.com/images/battlegroundbreakdown-lg.jpg
One difference in the M-D poll versus the Columbus Dispatch poll that I listed above where Obama leads by 6 points is that the M-D poll was done over 2 days and a little over 600 interviewees. The Dispatch poll had over 2100 responders and was done for a week starting on Oct 22. The postive is that the Dispatch has a larger sampling, the negative is that in today's politics, the early responders were questioned over a week ago which can be a life time.
Yesterday, I revised my electoral map (Midnight and I are fickle like that), and emailed to a friend, but did not post here. My count was Obama winning 364-174. Now, I'm back on the fence. Some of these states are so damn difficult as they continuously preside within the margin of error and there are so many polls that it is mind boggling. Last night, my tough calls were on NC, IN, and MO (I put Indiana in the McCain column, and the other two in the Obama column...note that my gut says McCain wins Missouri, but history and Coolblue act as if I'm spitting in the face of time honored history to prognosticate MO for anyone other than the election winner
, so who am I to screw with tradition? I was more confident in assigning Obama FL, OH and NV, but now I"m really uncertain about OH and, for that matter, FL, too.The wildcards in this race are:
RACE -- most of these undecideds are likely heading McCain's way...these undecided agree with Obama, but can't vote for a black guy, so they are in decision-making flux. Of course, some will stay home, too, but if they can't hitch there horse to Obama by now, I'm guessing they go GOP.
CLOSERS --- Hillary outclosed Obama in the primaries, and McCain is a notorious strong closer (see FL and NH in the primaries). He was good on SNL, which helped with the geezer component, he is scaring people about taxes, which is always an ace in the cards for Repubs, and this morning, I saw my first GOP-sponsored ad on the Rev Wright and Obama...it was nasty, but probably effective in swing areas (gotta love GOP ads, there was our GOP Sen Saxby Shameless runnng an ad saying his Dem opponent was for child molestations).
YOUTH VOTE -- I never really buy into this, but I know Obama is counting on it. We've already seen poor young voter turnout in advance voting in NC and FL. So, how much does this tighten the race if younger voters just stay home and get drunk?
