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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Why the hell is McCain doing a rally in Tennessee on Monday? …

Blountville is part of an area known as the “Tri-Cities” and includes portions of Virginia.

Join John McCain for his final Road to Victory rally on Monday, November 3rd at Tri-Cities Regional Airport. This will be Senator McCain's last rally with Virginia and Tennessee supporters before Election Day. [Link]
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Blountville is part of an area known as the “Tri-Cities” and includes portions of Virginia.

As a former and currently part-time Tennessean, I am embarrassed to say that I didn't even correlate Blountsville with VA...my bad, thanks, opinterph.

Syntax, I'm not sure how Barnes is viewing the map to achieve his numbers. He did not go into the state specifics on the Beltway Boys election prediction show. But, Midnight, the 286-252 is accurate. Here is another source, where you can click on his name and see his and others predictions (this was not my original source, I might add):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1#
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^Where's Cindy?

I think that Joe Lieberman is standing where she ordinarily would.

You know, the guy who "caucuses with the Democrats" in the Senate.

Next time I hear somebody say that, I'm just about ready to throw something at the TV.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As a former and currently part-time Tennessean, I am embarrassed to say that I didn't even correlate Blountsville with VA...my bad, thanks, opinterph.

Syntax, I'm not sure how Barnes is viewing the map to achieve his numbers. He did not go into the state specifics on the Beltway Boys election prediction show. But, Midnight, the 286-252 is accurate. Here is another source, where you can click on his name and see his and others predictions (this was not my original source, I might add):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1#

He's still missing 10 Electoral Votes that he's not counting somewhere. I count 548 Electoral Votes and he only has 538.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I am troubled by Pa., just heard John King on CNN and said it has closed significantly there and Obama's lead on new polls tomorrow will likely be within the margin of error. This is not good news. If McCain can win Pa. then he will likely win Oh, Fl., and Va. thus eliminating any chance for Obama to win.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

To a certain degree, the networks have to drum up ratings where they can. And I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing here. We don't want anyone to take for granted that their vote isn't needed.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I am troubled by Pa., just heard John King on CNN and said it has closed significantly there and Obama's lead on new polls tomorrow will likely be within the margin of error. This is not good news. If McCain can win Pa. then he will likely win Oh, Fl., and Va. thus eliminating any chance for Obama to win.


Several more polls came out this evening on Pennsylvania and they look alright for Obama.

PPP has Obama +8
Rasmussen has Obama +6
Muhlenber has Obama +6

Also from today:
NBC has Obama +4
SurveyUSA has Obama at +7

Hence, I am not seeing a high likelihood of problems in the Keystone State.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Looking at those schedules, I had a momentary vision of McCain collapsing from a heart attack as he exits the place in Nevada, and the flight to Arizona becomes one to take him home for good.

I think that's my subconscious' way of saying, "that's a heck of a schedule!"
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Looking at those schedules, I had a momentary vision of McCain collapsing from a heart attack as he exits the place in Nevada, and the flight to Arizona becomes one to take him home for good.

I think that's my subconscious' way of saying, "that's a heck of a schedule!"

That's terrible.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Undecideds seem to be favoring Obama. He is up another 2% in almost all the national tracking polls today.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Missouri has gift for picking presidents

By Dirk VanderHart
USA Today | Sunday, Nov. 3, 2008

"…David Robertson, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, predicted Obama has a 55% chance of taking Missouri, compared to a 75% chance of winning the election.

"We're usually within 3% or less of the popular vote nationwide," Robertson said. "If that's the case, then I think we go with Obama.…"

Source Link (added by moderator): http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-11-02-50statemissouri_N.htm

Not a lot of what I don't already know. But the 3 percent mentioned is really interesting. If Obama wins this election by, say, five points…that's liable to include Missouri among the states he carries. As I've written before, while every Republican winner carried Ohio, every prevailing Democrat has been historically supported in the vote from Mo. What usually happens: The winner prevails on his turf, then grabs his opponent's, and then makes it a complete package in also carrying Nevada. Those are the three leading bellwethers of this country.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Well, it looks like the FOX/Rasmussen poll released today has:


Florida: McCain +1
Ohio: Tie
North Carolina: McCain +1.

I hope Florida and Ohio don't disappoint me. Although, we'll still be fine as long as Obama holds onto Pennsylvania and Virginia.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec



Okay, here is some election music from previous elections to get you in the mood for the big day Tuesday (of course, you know I'll take any excuse to play it:D).

TONS of state polls out today...enough to make even the Pollmeister feel dizzy like he just got off the Tilt-a-Whirl.

With so many polls and time constraints, I am foregoing typing out all of the sources...sorry just too many to source, but all of the polls were released today.

COLORADO (2 polls) -- Obama +4, +7 -- looking solid for Obama.

FLORIDA -- (5 polls) -- McCain +1, Obama +2, +2, +2, +4 -- Very close but three polls today have him with a narrow 2 point lead. Should be a nailbiter.

GEORGIA (2 polls) -- McCain +2, +7 -- If only Obama or Biden had campaigned in the Peach State.

INDIANA (3 polls) -- TIE , MCain +5, Obama +1 -- 3 different results!!!

MINNESOTA (1 poll) -- Obama +3 -- Final MN poll is a tight one!

MISSOURI (4 polls) -- TIE, TIE, TIE, Obama +1 -- WOW...tighter than Joan Rivers face...3 out of 4 polls declare a TIE, the other a point away from a tie.

MONTANA (2 polls) -- Obama +1, McCain +3 -- Big Sky country is up in the air.

NEVADA (1 poll) -- Obama +8

NEW JERSEY (1 poll) -- Obama +15

NORTH CAROLINA (4 polls) -- McCain +1, +1, +1, Obama +1 -- Again, what polling consistency. McCain seems to have pulled ahead in the Tarheel State.

OHIO (6 polls) -- TIE, Obama +2, +2, +6, +6, +7 -- The Buckeye State co-shares the award for most polls today, and Obama leads in five of them with one tie.

PENNSYLVANIA (6 polls) -- Obama +7, +8, +14, +6, +10, +6 -- And the Keystone State has half a dozen polls, all with comfy Obama leads.

VIRGINIA (2 polls) -- Obama +4, +6 -- Little has changed lately in Old Dominion.

WISCONSIN (1 poll) -- Obama +13

WASHINGTON (1 poll) -- Obama +15

ALASKA (1 poll) -- McCain +3 -- Palin better push 'em hard in the Last Frontier or she could be embarrassed.

ARIZONA (1 poll) -- McCain +4 -- McCain better push'em hard tonight at his 2am Phoenix rally as a homestead victory is looking a little dubious.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (1 poll) -- Obama +15
 
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