On-Topic Economy Dies in 4th Quarter -- Annual Rate of 0.1% GDP

[opinterph]

What does that mean? The future is what happens next?

That means last quarter's rate of GDP growth is not determinative. (IMO)

 

[Apollo]

He

Here are a few facts for you. The Obama recession is going to get worse in 2013, as big chains contemplate closing hundreds of stores. Nobody knows how many stores will actually be closed, but the numbers being tossed about are significant:

http://247wallst.com/2013/01/29/eight-retailers-that-will-close-the-most-stores/


Barnes and Noble 190-240 stores could be closed
Office Depot 125-150
J C Penney 275-350
Sears/K-Mart 275-350
Best Buy 200-250
Gamestop 500-600
Office Max 150-175
Radio Shack 450-550


US Economy shrank in 4th Quarter

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ks-in-fourth-quarter-for-first-time-since-09/

Most of those closings are a result of a changing of consumer habits. Barnes and Noble is closing becuase more people are buying books online. Not to mention BN is in the e-book race. They are moving away from Brick and Mortor and putting their money behind the Nook.

Office Depot and Office Max are quickly becoming irrelevant with the power and efficiency of Amazon.com and other online retailers who can get you more for less with just a click of the mouse.

Sears/KMart have been closing stores for years. Jeez, Kmart left the Houston market back when the economy was still in good standing. And i'd be blessed to see a Sears in Houston and I think I saw one in LA.

A lot of those businesses are failing because of failed business models and bad business decisions.

 

[JayHawk]

One report I read said it was because the Defense Department simply cut back on spending in anticipation of the spending cuts. Which equated to less government spending.

Defense cuts are going to hurt the economy just as other government spending cuts will hurt the economy. However the defense cuts just started and could have in no way made such a huge impact. The Service chiefs announced their freezes only last week and the Navy began firing folks this week.

Now it could be the defense industry reading the tea leaves and self cutting to prepare for the future. However actual cuts did not begin until recently.

I find it amusing that most of those companies cited by Henry are Strategic management case studies in the textbook i am using this semester. It was printed in 2011. They are examples of how failure to strategically manage your enterprise results in failure or major loss and restructuring. I am figuring out how to save Best Buy coincidentally. Nothing germane their to the party panty fight but I do find amusing that Obama forced these companies to fail by not being on their boards. So destined to fail that they ended up in a text book printed in 2011.

 

[evanrick]

i could tell you how to fix the economy, have more elections. fewer republicans = fewer roadblocks to recovery.

 

[JayHawk]

Do he play by sense of smell?

I was wrong previously. Defense spending was down 22% from everything I have been reading...... that is what republicans want. More cuts to spending. This is a perfect example of what will happen to the economy.

 

[CowboyBob]

Here's more news for those who refuse to accept reality:

High-end home sales hit record in California
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_22481152/high-end-home-sales-hit-record-california

2012 home sales: Best in 5 years
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/22/news/economy/home-sales/index.html

Damn, this economy is really sputtering and dying, isn't it guys. Want some salt for that egg on your face Springer?

 

[CowboyBob]

OOPS .....I mentioned Chrysler and Ford but forgot to include General Motors.

North American sales drive GM to $1.48 billion profit
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2012/10/31/gm-general-motors-q3-earnings/1670015/

10 Reasons GM's Profit Is About To Explode
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2012/12/04/10-reasons-gms-profit-is-about-to-explode/

General Motors has pocketed $5 billion in net profit so far this year, $1 billion more than crosstown rival Ford Motor Company

Damn, this is a dead Obama economy, isn't it?

 

[MisterB]

CowBoy Bob: Thanks for this information. It amazes how well the American auto industry has rebounded from near extinction. I can only imagine how much worse the economy would have been had the industry been allowed to go bankrupt.

I know my partner and I have done what we could for the auto industry--three new Chevys since 2008. And, truly, the best cars we've owned.

 

[tigerfan482]

[Quoted Post: Removed]

Jobless claims go up and down all of the time. It's a result of the seasonal nature of a lot of jobs out there. You should sit down and have a discussion with the private sector on how job instability hurts the economy.

As far as the jobs council, I wouldn't call it non-productive since the very article you quoted said that unemployment was 9% when they were established and is now 7.8%. Also, I would read the rest of the article about how the executive order had the sunset in it and how the President never intended for it to be long term.

[Text: Removed]

 

[Jack Springer]

Unemployment is up again to 7.9%.

But I know liberals think that is a good thing.

 

[CowboyBob]

Ford, GM, Chrysler sales advance on sharp rise in car, crossover deliveries

http://www.autonews.com/article/20130201/RETAIL01/130129902#ixzz2Jf9xqhlg

Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Chrysler Group posted double-digit sales increases in January, signaling the industry may be starting 2013 on a stronger note than expected. Other automakers will release January sales results later today, with Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. expected to post substantial gains.

Some news to counter the gloomy gus.

 

[CowboyBob]

Dow climbs above 14,000

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed above 14,000 for the first time since the Great Recession. The index rose as high as 14,000.97 in early trading. The index last traded above 14,000 in October 2007.

Damn, the Obama economy is looking pretty good, Springer! You can thank your (re-elected) President for saving the country from the Bush depression.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20130201&id=16070897

 

[xbuzzerx]

[Quoted Post: Removed]

Jack 3 basic rebuttals have been thrown your way.

1) A lot of the downturn was over the uncertainty of what was happening with the "fiscal cliff", which occurred because Republicans utterly refused to come to the table at all until the very last second.

2) A lot of the industries and companies losing traction are doing so because of wider market changes such as the move into e-commerce and mismanagement, and have absolutely nothing to do with anything Obama does.

3) Cutting Federal spending, which Republicans WANT, is going to result in short-term dips to economic activity.

These three things are all pretty much core to what you were trying to say in your original post.

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[Jack Springer]

Obama oversold the recovery -- the red is actual unemployment.

At the current rate of job growth it will take until 2025 to reach were we were before the recession started.

I have no doubt whatsoever that you guys will put a good spin on that -- but deep down you know it's not good.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/02/ja...obama-doesnt-want-to-talk-about-jobs-anymore/

 

[xbuzzerx]

Obama oversold the recovery -- the red is actual unemployment.

At the current rate of job growth it will take until 2025 to reach were we were before the recession started.

I have no doubt whatsoever that you guys will put a good spin on that -- but deep down you know it's not good.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/02/ja...obama-doesnt-want-to-talk-about-jobs-anymore/

Jack, yes, job recovery takes time.

All you said is he "oversold" the recovery. To me that means very little because Republicans have criticized everything about Obama from the false interpretation that he promised an instant recovery. If you listened to any of his speeches, even his pre-election campaign speeches, he said that this would take years and be a lot of hard work. He never promised instant recovery.

If you believe he has somehow done something that has 'hurt' recovery, say how exactly. But realize that we're going to take it within the context that the financial collapse in the first place followed up 8 years of Republicans getting to do anything they wanted with the leadership of this country.

 

[chrisrobin]

.
Bad News:

The Dow exceeded 14,000 today - highest in the last five years... before Bush and Paulson torpedoed the economy. When Barry took office in 2009, it was around 6,500. It's like golf - the lower score the better. Right?

 

[opinterph]

Obama oversold the recovery -- the red is actual unemployment.

[IMG]http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/020113romerbernsteinJan20132-600x348.jpg[/IMG]

I think what the president stands behind is the policies that he is implementing, the policies that he is advocating. That's what's important. [SUP]*[/SUP]

The blog to which you linked was published by James Pethokoukis. Back in 2008 he published “a few pieces of advice” for then-presidential candidate, John McCain, which included:

He could trot out that famous John Maynard Keynes line, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The end of cheap oil is one huge factual change. And McCain could set the stage, as someone recently suggested, by visiting ANWR with Alaska's governor, Sarah Palin.

Ten weeks later, Senator McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate. So, Mr. Pethokoukis acknowledged that sometimes facts change and it is therefore prudent to change position. I wonder if he regrets advising John McCain to stand with Governor Palin.

I also wonder if the Obama Administration has ever revised its outlook for employment in the US. The figures Mr. Pethokoukis cites are from 2009.

To provide some context, recall that back in January 2009 Team Obama economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer predicted the unemployment rate by 2013 would be closing in on 5%.

Bernstein and Romer are no longer part of the Obama Administration and the facts have changed since their predictions of 2009.

And with regard to the linked blog, Wiki reports: “More than twenty AEI scholars and fellows served either in a Bush administration policy post or on one of the government's many panels and commissions.” I’m glad they have found a way to continue to collaborate and share their expertise.

At the current rate of job growth it will take until 2025 to reach were we were before the recession started.

A major reason why the pre-recession employment levels will not soon again be reached is the changing demographics here in the US. Nine months ago I posted about the decreasing job participation rate, including how it is expected to decline over the next couple decades. Unless we can convince more people to immigrate to the US, we simply won’t have the workforce to restore pre-recession employment levels anytime soon.

Reference Post: A reduced labor force is a lousy way to cut the unemployment rate​

 

[tigerfan482]

Obama oversold the recovery -- the red is actual unemployment.

At the current rate of job growth it will take until 2025 to reach were we were before the recession started.

I have no doubt whatsoever that you guys will put a good spin on that -- but deep down you know it's not good.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/02/ja...obama-doesnt-want-to-talk-about-jobs-anymore/

Again, what exactly does the President need to do? Should he hire more government workers to help reduce that number? You should really be e-mailing your friends in private industry and telling them to hire people. You should also go ahead and e-mail your Republican buddies in Congress and tell them to pass Obama's job creation measures. Keep in mind, the predictions his team made in January 2009 were predicated on the fact that they would have a Congress that would be interested in creating jobs and not trying to take Obama out of one. I know it's modus operandi for Republicans to roadblock everything and then blame the lack of large positive movement on the President, but most of America sees through their tricks and really doesn't trust Republicans to do anything anymore.

 

[chrisrobin]

.
Chrysler would have been better off going bankrupt.

Chrysler’s Earnings Soar, Raising Fiat’s With Them
By BILL VLASIC
Published: January 30, 2013

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/business/chrysler-earnings-soar.html?_r=0

More evidence of the failed Obama presidency. Oh, the humanity! -

 

[opinterph]

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